George W. Bush Interview With Mark K. Updegrove (Audio) 
Short Cuts: Episode III 
Behind the Lines
Filling the Shoes
Where are Texas politics headed? Right, where you’d think.
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Will Bush move to the right in his 1998 campaign for reelection? Move? On most social issues he’s already there. Bush’s moderate image comes from his style rather than his substance. Bush is not an exclusionary politician; he is not anti-immigrant, anti-gay, anti—welfare recipient, or pro English-only. Nor is he inclined to be confrontational toward Democrats, an attitude that sets him apart from many younger Republicans in Congress—and in the Texas Legislature. But his ideological stance is wholly compatible with the Christian Coalition’s. Criticism of the sixties counterculture is a staple of his speeches. He is for faith-based participation in publicly funded welfare programs, an idea that some would consider an incursion on the separation of church and state. He recently named as head of the state health department Dr. Reyn Archer, who, as a federal health administrator during the eighties, implemented a controversial pro-life gag rule. (It prohibited counselors paid with federal funds from giving advice about abortions to pregnant women.) Bush’s 1995 education-reform package gave parents more authority over education and the state less. Christian Coalition founder Ralph Reed is a longtime Bush friend and has visited him in the Governor’s Mansion; when Reed announced plans in April to set up shop as a political consultant, rumors immediately began circulating that Bush would be a client in 2000.
Which party enters 1998 in better position? That’s easy—the Republicans do. In 1974 GOP candidates for contested statewide offices won just 29 percent of the votes cast in those races; last year the Republicans’ share was 56 percent. Republicans are still gaining in every section of the state, including South Texas. Since 1988, GOP candidates have gone from getting a minority share of the votes to a majority in the onetime Democratic strongholds of East Texas and Central Texas.
The Democrats have been overwhelmed by waves of new Republican voters. GOP consultant Karl Rove has compiled a chart of the 25 counties with the greatest percentage increase in voter registration since 1970. Travis is the sole urban county on the list. Only two South Texas counties, Zapata and Maverick, show up—bad news for the Democrats. A few are in rural areas. The rest, 17 counties in all, are suburban. In 3 of the counties (Collin, north of Dallas; Fort Bend, west of Houston; and Rockwall, east of Dallas), the increase in voter registration since 1970 has been more than 1,000 percent, or tenfold.
Suburbs are graveyards for Democrats. When Ann Richards defeated Clayton Williams in 1990, she won more than 40 percent of the major-party votes in Collin County. Four years later, when she ran against George W. Bush, she improved her Collin County total by 6,000 votes—but her percentage dropped to 34 percent. Of the increase in turnout, Bush won four out of every five votes. This outcome was repeated in the statewide numbers. Richards in 1994 won around 90,000 more votes than she got in defeating Williams. But Bush polled more than half a million more votes than Claytie did.
How do the down-ballot races shape up? In the race for “lite guv,” as the number two position is called around the Capitol, Sharp’s likely Republican opponent is a former A&M squadronmate, agriculture commissioner Rick Perry. The chance to become governor the easy way, if Bush wins the presidency and vacates his old job, could entice others into the Republican primary—most notably Houston investor David Dewhurst, who is capable of funding his own campaign. This race will be crucial to Bush if he does run for president; he won’t want a Democrat waiting in the wings to succeed him. Sharp has the better record: He has come up with numerous money-saving ideas that have been embraced by the Legislature; he developed the anti-welfare fraud Lone Star card, and he started the Texas Tomorrow program, which allows parents to invest for their children’s college tuition. Perry’s office has nowhere near the visibility as Sharp’s. But Perry is a much better TV candidate. The Republicans’ big advantage lies in the lite guv’s position directly under governor on the ballot. Bush, who beat Richards by 300,000 votes, could easily win by a million votes this time. A net of half a million voters—one out of every nine or ten—would have to switch to the Democratic column for Sharp to win. Sharp will try to pitch his appeal to independent voters who want divided government, but the edge goes to Perry.
The attorney general’s race shapes up as a serious problem for Republicans. Dan Morales doesn’t get high marks from Capitol insiders, but his public image is unflawed. He is aggressive (he sued the tobacco companies) and independent (his strict interpretation of the anti—affirmative action Hopwood decision enraged minorities). Meanwhile, the Republicans are in a quandary. His probable opponent is Tom Pauken, the former state party chairman and a divisive force who could cut off Bush’s coattails. The Bush crowd would like to see state supreme court justice John Cornyn get in the race, but Pauken has a base and name identification, and Cornyn doesn’t. Edge to Morales.
No love is lost between the two Republican railroad commissioners, Carole Keeton Rylander and Barry Williamson, who are considering running against Hobby for comptroller. The winner of the GOP primary may have a hard time wooing the supporters of the loser. To make matters worse for Republicans, their nominee will be situated directly below Pauken on the ballot, which is not the place to be. Bush will have to have mighty long coattails to reach this far. Edge to Hobby.
What about those coattails? The Democrats’ dilemma is whether to challenge Bush or let him have what amounts to a bye. One theory is that a kamikaze Mauro race might help national Democrats in 2000, but it would hurt Texas Democrats in 1998 by stirring up Bush to spend money and effort that would benefit the entire ticket. Mauro has only to look back to his first race, in 1982, for a parallel. Republicans challenged U.S. senator Lloyd Bentsen and Lieutenant Governor Bill Hobby, who mounted a unified campaign that swept Republican governor Bill Clements out of office and elected left-of-center Democrats, including Mauro, to down-ballot offices. The other argument is that it is better to keep Bush occupied with his own race instead of campaigning for other Republicans. The possibility remains that Mauro will decide to run for reelection, and that a dark horse (Secretary of the Navy John Dalton’s name has come up) might run against Bush. The Democrats had better get it right. If they can’t win some races with this ticket, they can’t win, period.
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