Politics
Race of Races
Who will be Houston's next mayor? Brown is a lame duck. White is a long shot. The front-runners are black and Hispanic. Got it?
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Turner believes the libel trial vindicated him in the minds of voters: "People tell me all the time I got a raw deal, only they are much more descriptive. I'm being nice when I say 'raw deal.'" That may be. But unless he can win the support of white voters, his name on the runoff ballot would only ensure the election of a more conservative candidate, like Orlando Sanchez, a Republican. This prospect worries some Houston civic leaders, who have seen Republicans oppose the kinds of big projects, from the sports arena to light-rail, that booster types see as important to the city's fragile self-image. The easiest way to avoid this, Ellis says, is for them to support a black candidate. (Ellis' name has surfaced as a candidate.)
The case for a Hispanic mayor. "Orlando came out of the mayor's race with an awful lot of support," says UH's Murray. And the presence of a Democratic Sanchez—gubernatorial candidate Tony—in the 2002 governor's race will have a positive effect on Hispanic participation, Murray predicts. "It will provide a much larger base for Hispanics to run on in the future," he says. While black voters have dominated recent elections, Murray points out that their population remains fairly constant, while the Hispanic population is rising rapidly. So is their voting strength. "We had the highest turnout in Houston history," Orlando Sanchez told me. "You saw the ethnic community energized. We almost doubled the Hispanic vote in the mayor's race. It was amazing."
A Hispanic Democrat would have a hard time getting into a runoff because the Hispanic vote is still no match for the black vote. (In recognition of the numbers, controller Sylvia Garcia, who harbored mayoral ambitions, is running for the partisan position of county commissioner instead.) A Hispanic Republican like Sanchez, however, is automatically a formidable candidate because the majority of Hispanics will vote for the surname instead of the party and Republicans will vote for the conservative. But GOP support could be splintered by the candidacy of any of several well-known candidates rumored to be considering the race: wannabe Rob Mosbacher, developer Ed Wulfe, and Harris County tax assessor-collector Paul Bettencourt. Former councilman Joe Roach has announced his candidacy.
Sanchez's weakness is a modest record of accomplishment in business and politics. Among Houston's political insiders, the suspicion lingers that he owes his strong showing in the mayor's race to his good looks (that winning combination of jet-black hair and piercing blue eyes) and a random event that gave his candidacy a boost. Sanchez had been criticizing Brown for stiff-arming firefighters' pleas for more staffing when a blaze took the life of a Houston firefighter. His popularity soared, aided by the post-September 11 sympathy for firefighters.
Some business leaders question his credentials for managing the nation's fourth-largest city under Houston's strong-mayor form of government. Before serving on the council, Sanchez served a stint in the Air Force and worked as a probation officer. "What has he managed?" asks Rodney Ellis. "He managed to get elected to council."
Sanchez, who now works with an investment banking firm, readily concedes that he isn't a corporate giant. But since the demise of Enron, Arthur Andersen, and WorldCom, he says, "People are starting to appreciate public service more." So what exactly is Sanchez's record of public service? When I asked him about his years on the council, he seemed proudest of the fact that he didn't become snared in an FBI bribery scandal that sent a council member and a port commissioner to prison: "I served with integrity during a turbulent time. There was no scandal during my six years in office."
The case for an Anglo Democrat. The theory is that such a candidate could put together a rainbow coalition of Hispanic activists, independent blacks, white moderates, and union workers. Mention this possibility and cynical Houston pundits immediately counter with two names: Chris Bell and George Greanias. Both were able, articulate, smart Anglo candidates with solid records of service to the city (Bell on the council, Greanias as controller and council member) who lost mayoral bids, in 2001 and 1997 respectively. Neither was able to generate crossover appeal to the larger voting blocs. Maybe an Anglo Democratic woman could attract Republican support, as Laura Miller did in winning the mayor's race in Dallas. But no names have come up.
Still, Bob Lanier thinks the rainbow coalition could work. Immensely popular even in retirement, he keeps his finger on the pulse of local politics. He cited a June poll in which Houstonians identified the most important factors affecting their choice for mayor as character and reputation, having a clear vision and direction for the city, and the ability to work well with different racial groups. While acknowledging the strength of racial and party voting blocs, Lanier says, "A substantial part of the electorate would simply vote for the person best qualified for the job."
Such a candidate would be coming from the smallest of the four voting blocs—"an impediment," Lanier says, "but not a deal-breaker." Not surprisingly, White agrees. "There's a disparity between the conventional wisdom of political pros and the public's deep yearning and real concern that our city not be divided by party and ethnic politics," he says. "If people thought that somebody had a plan and some capability of improving mobility, spending taxes wisely, and improving quality of life, then a coalition could be successful."
While White has the personal wealth to jump-start a campaign, he may not have the right personality; even his friends worry that he's too cerebral to have widespread appeal. He loves to talk about issues. At the end of a sweltering July day, my ears perked up when he proposed using heat-reflecting materials in construction to help reduce temperatures in Houston. "We can rebuild this city to be cooler and cut utility bills," he said. It is just possible that the promise of a cooler Houston would overcome loyalties of color and party, because, according to polls and recent election results, that is what it would take: a miracle.
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