First question was on vouchers…technical difficulties (mine)

Next question: Legislature may reconsider Patrick bill requiring sonograms. Do you support reconsidering it? White says, not going to make advance judgments but would not allow Legislative sessions to get hijacked by wedge issues. Shami would not take away freedom of any Texan, let woman consult with her doctor. No abortions after 90 days.

Question to Shami — Would you support overturning bill on same-sex marriages. Answer: Human beings should have the right to do what they want to do. I would not take away freedom.

Photo ID question to White — How do you prevent the session from being hijacked. White: Perry has brought the politics of Washington to the state house. If any noncitizen is voting they should be prosecuted and serve time. In this country, not everybody is required to have a photo ID. Follow-up, how to prevent shutting down business. White: Been over 14,900 votes since I was elected mayor, and those votes didn’t break down along party lines. I bring people together, treat every view with respect.

Shami: Voting is a privilege and a duty. People have lost their trust in career politicians. They ask now for a driver’s license. We don’t need a voter ID. Don’t waste our time on nonsense.

???? from voter trying to find a job in audience: To White, when I got back in job market, I’m viewed as overqualified and also my age. How do you keep older Texans from being disqualified?

White–we ought to make sure that each person has access to job training where there is a job waiting in the end. People came to my city after Katrina. We worked backwards with employment place to match people to jobs.

???? Companies are slashing jobs. What would you do?

White: as mayor, I brought companies to Houston. Texas has outperformed rest of America for decades.

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Tagged: bill white, democratic debate, farouk shami.

I drove to Houston for the rally yesterday. The event was held at a huge complex called the Richard E. Berry Educational Support center on Barker-Cypress Road in northwest Houston. The surrounding area is entirely outside the Houston city limits and is unincorporated. A colleague at Texas Monthly who lives nearby told me that 800,000 people live in the area. I would say that I can’t verify that, except that she is head of our fact-checking department.

The Berry center is a lavish athletic complex. It was built with the proceeds of a 2001 bond issue for the Cy-Fair school district. The outside of the complex was a handsome red brick building with an impressive facade. Inside, I stepped onto a tile floor with marble squares at regular intervals. Between the building and the street was a parking lot large enough that, had it been grass, could sustain a hunting lease. This was not a monument to the fiscal conservatism that the two main attractions claim to embrace.

The venue for the rally was a rectangular arena with a concrete floor. A basketball court can be placed on top. Two tiers of permanent seating — no benches — rose to the top of the arena on all sides. The school district says that the capacity is 8,300. The seating was around two-thirds full so I would estimate the attendance at around 5,000 to 6,000. Published estimates ranged from 6,000 to 8,000 to 15,000. No way on anything much above 6K. Still, six thousand people — some of whom were already lining up at 9 a.m. on Super Bowl Sunday — is a huge turnout.

Hand-painted banners were taped to the walls. “TEXAS VALUES … PROVEN LEADERSHIP … PROUD OF TEXAS … GOV PERRY TRUE TEXAN … HANDS OFF MY PISTOL … HOME SCHOOLERS 4 PERRY … STOP BAILOUTS,” they read. A band played the theme from “How the West was won.” A woman in the lower seats began to clap in an effort to stir up the crowd. Giant screens on either side of the state flashed instructions on how to tweet, how to follow Perry on Twitter, and how to set up your home headquarters for Perry.

Dan Patrick was the master of ceremonies for the rally. “One thing Governor Perry and I have in common is that we make use of the social media,” he said. He told the audience, “When you leave today, the Perry campaign will be handing out packets with the name of a Republican who hasn’t made up his mind yet. Call them and tell them you are supporting Rick Perry. Then send the results back to the campaign.” Later, the screens advised the audience to “Text “Fired Up” to 95613 for instant messages.”

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Tagged: Bob Bullock, dan patrick, rick perry, sarah palin, Ted Nugent.

This is your basic bio spot — current family shot, childhood (”parents were schoolteachers”), off to college (”earned a scholarship”), then family life (”taught Sunday School”) to mayor of Houston (”cut taxes five times”). The closing shot is taken from the floor up, so that White’s baldness is not evident. The final line employs his theme of “a governor for Texas’s future.”

This is a much more appealing ad than the initial one. Finding a shirt with of a shade other than lavender was a good move. The production quality is much better too. They definitely have a learning curve.

en espanol aqui

Tagged: bill white, campaign spot.

Am I the last person in Texas to see this Medina campaign spot? Today is the first time I have seen it. It’s the most compelling campaign spot (if a six minutes and fifty-two seconds video can properly be described as a “spot”) that I have seen this entire campaign season, and does it ever make Perry look bad. One of the things that makes it effective, whether intentional or not, is that Perry’s words are out of synch with his lips. (If intentional, it’s genius!) I think she could have omitted the cartoon figures of Perry talking super-fast, though. Ridicule was gilding the lily. The words out of his own mouth, particularly his struggles with eminent domain, were enough to sink him. Here is the obvious question. This video was created after the first debate. What would have happened if KBH’s team had come up with a video with the same message minus the more extreme elements? Why didn’t they?

[Video no longer available.]

Tagged: campaign spot, Debra Medina.

Perry gained 1 point since the previous poll. Hutchison lost 4 points. Medina gained 4 points. Hutchison now is lower in the polls (29) than Perry was (30) when she first announced that she would run for governor.

Key stat: If voters maintain their current attitudes, Hutchison needs 50% of the primary to be political moderates in order to overtake Perry going into the runoff. That is about as much of a chance as her giving a straightforward answer to a question about abortion.

Perry’s numbers among Republican primary voters are off the charts:
80% favorable
4% unfavorable

Hutchison’s favorables remain high (67%)

I don’t think this warrants much more analysis. She has been on the defensive since she voted for the TARP bailout. She has had a year and a half to offer a counter-argument and hasn’t done it. For that matter, she has had a year and a half to explain why she wants to be governor, and what she would do if elected, and she hasn’t done it. Nothing Hutchison has tried has worked. Her advertising is bad. Her most recent debate performance was bad. Her strategy of trying to out-conservative Perry was self-defeating.

There is still a chance that Medina could overtake Hutchison and finish second. Medina would have to gain 7 points and Hutchison would have to lose 6 points. That is a long shot. But I do think Medina has a shot at getting to 20%.

Tagged: Debra Medina, kay bailey hutchison, rasmussen poll, rick perry.

A couple of weeks ago I questioned in this space whether Medina might enter the Senate race if Hutchison resigns her seat after the primary or the runoff? Apparently someone else was thinking the same thing. The analysis that follows was sent to me by someone who is well known to readers of this blog, someone with SO license plates. The analysis picks up below the asterisks:

* * * *

I just read your comment about Medina running for Kay’s seat, if it ever opens up. I [have] speculated on the same thing. I have been trying to figure her reason to run in the R primary. It doesn’t make sense for her. Here is why:

1. If she really cared about her issues she would have run as an Indy or a Libertarian so she would be in the race all the way into the fall. She would then have time to build her name and would get to debate on the big stage in the general election.

2. If she actually thought she had a chance to win the R primary, or make the run-off she would not turn off the R votes by advocating legalizing drugs or saying she will not guarantee she will support the primary winner in Nov and may support a third party candidate.

So, what is her plan. Let’s go back to point 1. If she was running as an Independent or Libertarian it would be difficult to also run in a special election for Senator, and depending on when the election was actually held, she might not be legally able to do so. Secondly, if she had not run in R primary no one would know her anyway. My thesis.

She doesn’t care if some Republicans don’t like her drug stand or that she will not support Perry or Hutchinson in November. She is running in the Republican primary to build name I.D. and build support for a run in the special election for Kay’s seat. Once March 2 passes she will be free to run for the Senate (providing Kay steps down).

What is her chance of making that run-off ? Still a long shot, but she will have a shot, especially if she surprises and gets 12-18% in the primary.

My analysis of the numbers in a crowded special election field:
–Sharp and all Ds get 35%
–If Medina keeps her base and adds a few points she is 15-20% (if she does well in the primary)
–That leaves 50-55% to be split between 6 to 10 Republicans
–Dewhurst, Shapiro, Williams, Williams, Jones, all of whom have indicated they will run. You can be sure that there will be 2-4 more. Each one will pick up 3-5% points even for the bottom finishers. If you have, let’s say, 8 Republicans, can any of them get higher than her if she gets 18-20%? Dewhurst has the best chance, but with so many in the race each candidate will have their own base. making it harder for him to get 20%.

So, you could have a Medina-Sharp run-off if everything breaks her way. But three things have to happen:

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Tagged: david dewhurst, Debra Medina, John Sharp, kay bailey hutchison, michael williams, senate race.

It’s a good start. White chose the right message–improving education. Perry is vulnerable. Education advocates believe that standards have been lowered during the Perry years. The issue plays to White’s base but it also crosses party lines. Republicans in the suburbs and in rural areas care about public schools.

As a piece of film, however, the spot leaves something to be desired. The scenes of school children in classrooms are extremely predictable; how about closing with an upbeat scene of student graduating? It was important for White to appear in person and speak in his own voice. (Has anybody noticed that Perry’s spots have been all voice-over; Perry never delivers his own messages? Is this is an indication that his team is worried that he is overexposed?) White delivers his lines well and seems comfortable in front of the camera, except that his eyes occasionally get a little busy, like someone hawking his wares on late-night television. Perry’s TV team excels in creating dynamic spots that create momentum. White’s opening salvo was low-energy by comparison, but the tag line–”a governor for Texas’s future”–is spot-on.

Tagged: bill white, moving texas forward.