Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Source: PoliticalWire.com

I saw in the Midland Reporter-Telegram that Tom Craddick spoke to the home folks–the Permian Basin Petroleum Association–a few days ago. Here’s what he had to say:

When the next session of the Texas Legislature opens in January, “it will be about money,” said State Rep. Tom Craddick, who has represented the Midland area since taking office in 1969. “Money will be a big challenge — where to put it, where to not put it, will there be enough or will we have to cut spending.”

He said that cuts made during the last session in 2011 will not be restored.

* * * *

He said that? That’s interesting. Did I miss something? Is Craddick back on the LBB? Is he going to be vice-chair of Appropriations? How does he know the cuts are not going to be restored?

The story goes on to say, Beyond money matters, other issues will be roads, especially in the Permian Basin, where traffic has risen substantially because of oilfield activity and population growth, Craddick said….

I don’t doubt that roads/transportation will be an issue, but not “especially” in the Permian Basin. There are higher priorities. Dallas/Fort Worth. The north side of San Antonio. Interstate 35. Central Texas. There is growth in the Permian Basin, to be sure, but it shouldn’t be the first thing on the list.

The interesting thing about this article is that Craddick never changes. He still wants to cut the budget despite rising state revenues and a bulging rainy day fund, he still wants to set state policy despite the lack of a portfolio, and he still regards Midland as the center of the universe. And, I bet, he’s still trying to figure out how to regain the speakership.

It’s hardly worth looking at Texas polling. The only suspense is how big the Republican margin is going to be. According to Baselice, it’s 16 points. [Romney 54, Obama 38]. That is a huge differential. Not so long ago it was 9. The Cruz-Sadler differential is even worse [Cruz 48, Sadler 26].

The lesson here is that the worst thing that can happen to the state Democratic Party, or what’s left of it, is to have an unpopular Democratic president in the White House. The Democratic brand is ruined in Texas. The last Democrat to carry Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and he was defeated in the Reagan landslide of 1980.

A few numbers in the Baselice poll are worth looking at. In the Senate race, each candidate is doing well with his own base:

D – Sadler 80%

R – Cruz 89%

Among Hispanics, a group that is crucial to Obama’s reelection, the numbers in Texas are a far cry from Obama’s 70%+ nationally:

Obama 49%

Romney 40%

What does this tell us? Texas Hispanics are more conservative than Hispanics in other Southwestern states (CA, CO, NM, AZ).

Among women voters, Obama has a 50% – 41% lead. That, at least, is consistent with national trends. (Yes, I know that recent polling shows that Romney has closed the gender gap.)

The disparity between the two parties is so great that it is hardly worth the effort it takes to do a poll.

I saw this piece on a blog called Mullings. The author of the blog is Rich Galen, who I believe worked for Kay Bailey Hutchison at one time.

FROM DNIPROPETROVSK, UKRAINE: I’ve been here for two days preparing for, and actually observing, the Ukrainian parliamentary elections. I was part of the International Observer Mission in that effort. During the day before I hopped on an airplane from Kiev to come down here we were briefed by various government and political leaders. One person in our group asked whether international observers could remain in a precinct to watch the counting process. You may have missed this, but the other day the Attorney General of Texas offered the theory that if international observers interfered in the elections in Texas next week they could be arrested. The Ukrainian official answer the question about remaining in the precinct by saying, “Yes. Ukraine is not Texas.”

From CNN:

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday [10/26], President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio’s much fought over 18 electoral votes.

Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 46% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama’s four point advantage is within the survey’s sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, entirely after Monday’s final presidential debate.

“The race in the Buckeye State is essentially unchanged since early October, when a CNN/ORC poll taken just after the first presidential debate also showed President Obama with a four-point margin over Governor Romney,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

[More from CNN]

The new poll indicates that Obama has a double digit lead among those who have already voted absentee or early ballot or plan to do so before Election Day, with Romney holding the edge among people who plan to cast their ballot on November 6.

According to the survey, the gender gap has tightened a bit, but the basic storyline remains the same. Obama holds a 56%-42% advantage among female voters, with the GOP challenger up 50%-44% among men.

“In other major demographic groups, the movement since early October has been in the expected direction, with Obama picking up ground among younger voters, lower-income voters and urban voters and losing support among older voters, suburbanites, and higher-income voters,” adds Holland. “Looking at age, for example, Obama has gained three points among voters under 50 years old since early October, but lost three points among voters who are 50 and older.”

The poll indicates Obama maintains a small but critical advantage among independent voters. In early October, he had a 50%-46% margin among independents — virtually identical to the 49%-44% edge he has today.

* * * *

Romney’s problem is apparent from the data: He hasn’t been able to cut into Obama’s lead in the Buckeye state. As consequential as the Denver debate appeared to be at the time, CNN’s indicates that Obama’s margin remains unchanged since the first debate. Some pundits have argued that most voters, in this polarized electorate, long ago made up their minds as to how they were going to vote, and few have changed their minds.

Those who find it difficult to believe that Obama is ahead might reflect that very few presidents who run for a second term lose. In the modern (post-1900) era, the only presidents who sought and failed to win reelection were William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter.

In each of the following swing states, I looked at the ten latest polls as aggregated by HuffingtonPost. This is the source of the data that I used. The decision on whether a state is a swing state is mine, not HuffingtonPost’s. Here are the results:

Colorado (tracking 47 polls)

Obama leads in 7 polls

Romney leads in 2 polls

Tie 1

Iowa (tracking 30 polls)

Obama leads in 7 polls

Romney leads in 1 poll

Tie 2

Wisconsin (tracking 59 polls)

Obama ahead in 9 polls

Romney ahead in 0 polls

Tie 1

Nevada (tracking 37 polls)

Obama ahead in 10 polls

Romney ahead in 0 polls

New Hampshire (tracking 41 polls)

Obama ahead in 5 polls

Romney ahead in 4 polls

Tie 1

Virginia (tracking 76 polls)

Obama ahead in 4 polls

Romney ahead in 4 polls

Tie 2

Florida (tracking 92 polls)

Obama ahead in 2 polls

Romney ahead in 6 polls

Tie 2

Ohio

Obama ahead in 7 polls

Romney ahead in 0 polls

Tie 3

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Romney has been running ads in Minnesota. I did not count MN as a swing state. It is a Democratic state.

I have no credentials as a statistician, but it seems evident to me that the three Ohio polls serve to reinforce each other and enhance the probability that Obama is ahead in that state by at least +2.

From HuffingtonPost:

Collectively, the new polls of the past 24 hours have done nothing to change the standings in the most crucial battleground states. Obama continued to hold leads of 2 to 3 percentage points in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin, four states that currently combine with the states where Obama leads by larger margins to create a 277 electoral vote majority, seven more than the 270 needed to win.

Romney continues to lead in North Carolina and retain a narrow edge in Florida, states that would net him 233 electoral votes along with other states where Romney leads by larger margins. Those totals leave 26 electoral votes up for grabs in New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia, states where the tracking model shows Obama leading by very narrow margins of 2 percentage points or less.

Collectively, the trends of the past week provide a reality check to two myths that have emerged in recent campaign coverage.

The first is that Romney has been “surging” since the first debate. While the debate certainly boosted Romney’s standing in the polls, trends over the past two weeks have been negligible, with the leader seesawing nationally within a range of roughly one percentage point. Over the same period, the standings within the key battleground states have also remained constant. Other poll tracking models have shown the same patterns.

The second myth is that the national and battleground states polls have produced widely divergent results. If we use the state estimates produced by the Pollster tracking model in the nine key battlegrounds (Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina) to create a combined total vote based on the turnout in each state in 2008, we show Obama leading in across all nine states by a slim 0.6 percentage point margin (47.8 to 47.2 percent as of this writing; the estimated margin would be 47.9 to 47.2 percent if based on the 2004 turnout).

New Ohio Polls

Time/SRBI – Obama 49, Romney 44

Lake Research – Obama 46, Romney 44

Rasmussen – Obama 48, Romney 48

Survey USA – Obama 47, Romney 44

Huffpost Pollster (aggregated) – Obama 48.5, Romney 45.8

(From HuffingtonPost):

In 2008, 90 percent of gamblers correctly forecast an Obama victory. They were also on the money with 48 of 50 states.

Gamblers’ success in this arena is nothing new. In presidential races beginning in 1896, the New York Times, Sun, and World provided daily betting quotes. The papers’ sources were bookies who had agents at every stump and whistle-stop to gather intel and quantify popular sentiment. Between 1884 and 1940, the bettors erred on just one of sixteen elections, Wilson’s 1916 upset of Hughes.

Ironically, polls sent gamblers to the sideline. “Prior to Gallup’s introduction in 1936, newspapers had little to report about the election horse race other than the betting markets,” [Kansas University economics professor Koleman Strumpf explains]. “When scientific polls came along, newspapers had something to report other than markets they were oftentimes uncomfortable with.”

The same discomfort led to states relegating such gamblers to outlaws. The Internet has given rise to new forums, however. As of this writing [10/25, 5:53 p.m.], betting at the three biggest prediction markets is as follows: Betfair has Obama with a 64 percent chance to win to Romney’s 36 percent; Intrade has the president at 58 percent; and the Iowa Electronic Markets have the president at 59 percent. Oddschecker shows bookmakers to be even more bullish on Obama.

Why are the polls and gamblers so far apart?

“The answer highlights one of the main differences between the polls and markets like Intrade,” Intrade’s exchange operations manager Carl Wolfenden told me. “The polls ask who you’re going to vote for — a question that requires an emotional response. Intrade asks who you think will win — a rational question that requires someone to look at the facts and real world events, such as polls, debates, speeches, gaffes, scandals and crises. One of these facts is the Electoral College, which isn’t accounted for in polls.”

Why the big lead for Obama?

“Our markets recognize that Romney probably needs to win Ohio to beat Obama,” Wolfenden says. “And so the price for Obama to be reelected has closely tracked his probability of winning Ohio. So while Romney may lead in the polls, and he may have flipped a number of other key states — such as Florida, Virginia, Colorado — to his side of the ledger, our markets appear to believe that without Ohio he can’t get it done.”

Posted at 5:41 p.m. 10/25

Time/SRBI — Obama 49, Romney 44

Lake Research — Obama 46, Romney 44

Rasmussen (automated) — Obama 48, Romney 48

Survey USA (automated) — Obama 47, Romney 44

HuffPost Pollster (aggregate) — Obama 48.4, Romney 45.8

* * * *

I would not go so far as to say that Obama has a firewall in Ohio, but he has led here consistently.