Redistricting and the speaker’s race
Make no mistake about it: We are about to see a reprise of the speaker’s race in the redistricting debate. Redistricting has gone viral.
Did you think it was strange the other day when TLR came out and endorsed the Solomons plan? I certainly did. Why would TLR be interested in redistricting? The reason, I believe, is that they realize the potential for a right-wing coup that would put the crazies in charge–not that they aren’t already.
Thanks to the social media, redistricting is about to become a statewide issue, for the first time ever. Just as the conservative organizations flexed their muscle in the speakers’ race, so will they engage in the redistricting debate. Here is an example, an e-mail to Fort Bend County Republicans from county chairman Rick Miller:
April 25, 2011
Dear Fort Bend Republicans – please read: this is urgent!
Need Action today on the Vote for Texas House Redistricting:
The Texas House will vote tomorrow on the State Rep. redistricting plan. There are several plans that will be considered, namely the Solomons Plan (Plan 113) and the Nixon Plan (155 OR 166). [Note to readers: the Nixon plan is also the Klienschmidt plan].
To view the plans, go to: http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us
The issue is this: In plan 113, there are 8 or 9 districts that pit one Republican against another…and also open up 7 or 8 districts that do not have an incumbent, like new District 85 OR 33 in Fort Bend County depending on the Plan. [Note: The new district 33 in Fort Bend County exists because Fort Bend County qualified for a new seat due to population increase, not due to any nefarious line-drawing.]
In Plan 155, to the best of my knowledge, this is not the case. The Nixon Plan respects the conservative results of the last election and preserves our elected conservative Republicans, with only a few combined districts.
Regarding Fort Bend County, there is no difference, so there is no impact here between the two plans except for the number of the new district. But the impact statewide could be significant. We have 101 Republicans in the House today as a result of the 2010 General Election. The Solomons Plan has the potential to change this in the next election. The major considerations:
1. It does not reflect the voting patterns of the State, as in 2010
2. It violates the Voting Rights Act in urban areas
3. It not compact, with several very large areas
4. View the discussion at this link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcoTFzjvGYk
I encourage you to call State Representatives Charlie Howard (District 26) and Dr. John Zerwas (District 28) to tell them to vote for Plan 155/166, or the Nixon Plan.
* * * * *
My comments:
Once again, Straus’s speakership is at risk. This is what happens when you come to the critical moment of the session with no team in place, no plan, and brush fires of discontent among the members. I have to say, though I like Straus personally, he is sowing what he reaped. He has spent the entire session kowtowing to the far right, so that the inmates are running the asylum, and it has gotten him nowhere. He was never going to win them over, and now he has the worst appropriations bill in modern history to show for his efforts, and a potential redistricting revolt on his hands. His speakership is at risk–if not now, then in the Legislative Redistricting Board. Rick Perry will likely send redistricting to the board, probably with whispered instructions to draw a map that pairs Straus loyalists and insulates the conservatives from potential challengers. This could get really bloody.
Anonymous says:
I’m sure what you meant to write is that according to the terms of the Constitution, redistricting will be sent tongue LRB. It has nothing to do with who the Governor is and the Govern
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Anonymous says:
I’m sure what you meant to write is that according to the terms of the Constitution, redistricting will be sent tongue LRB. It has nothing to do with who the Governor who has no control over the LRB and its elected members.
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paulburka Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 10:46 pm
The governor has the veto power over any map that is passed, and he can trigger an LRB meeting by vetoing redistricting bills. That is a lot of control.
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Anonymous says:
TLR is interested in the Solomons map because TLR drew the Solomons map. It’s that simple.
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Steve Levine says:
Perry can send a plan to the LRB simply by vetoing it.
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Anonymous Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 10:04 pm
No chance it gets to his desk. Zero.
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Chris Howe says:
While the voter doesn’t consistently make their way down ballot, you can see the statistics on these maps had they been in place for the statewide races in 2008 and 2010 here: http://bit.ly/h5Ay6z
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Erik V says:
RINO HUNT!
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Anonymous Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 8:57 pm
Rhino/Dino……..please those names are SO yesterday. Yawn! They are overused and misused. Bor-ring!
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Erik V Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 10:02 pm
duhhh
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Watching a Different Session says:
Interesting thoughts, PB, but the “inmates” are running the asylum? If by inmates, you mean Straus’ committee chairmen, because conservatives sure haven’t shown their teeth. Or maybe you mean the backmic Democrats. Straus has chosen to be petulant, continue to punish those he deems his enemies (some former cardinals, even – ask Todd Smith), and badly mishandle all vaguely conservative issues by refusing to let the actual conservative members take the wheel. I suspect there is a lot of gleeful laughter going on behind the scenes. The only thing Straus has tried to control has been redistricting, the hornet’s nest that really, no one was going to be able to control.
Reaping what he’s sown, well, that remains to be seen. He’s certainly seeing the early fruits of a spoiled temper.
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paulburka Reply:
April 25th, 2011 at 10:49 pm
Todd was never a cardinal. He was very difficult to deal with in 2009 and he was not destined to be an insider this session.
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South Plains Sally says:
Burka you are making more out of this than there is. And I doubt the Phil Kings of this world can muster three votes on the LRB. All of the statewides servingon the LTB have ambitions beyond where they are now. None of them want to tick off TLR and their cash machine.
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Anon Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 6:21 pm
Ok Eppstein, whatever you say.
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Sour Six Teen says:
The Solomon map is a dirty word right now in tea party circles. I think you nailed it on social media driving this.
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Julie says:
Burka,
We already have enough crazy people in the Legislature. We don’t need anymore legislators who listen only to the Tea Party, which doesn’t care about anything other than cut, cut, cut, even if it does serious damage to critical services, including education for the state’s children.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 5:57 am
Some republicans think we should give the government more so they can give us more.
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teapartier Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! Cut! and cut somemore!
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Burka is joking says:
Burka was joking when he said “He [Speaker Straus] has spent the entire session kowtowing to the far right”.
Burka was hoping to stir up debate with this tongue-in-cheek joke. Unless Burka has been lying to us and is really a far left ideologue who believes balancing the budget by cutting spending is kowtowing to the far right.
No reasonable person could argue that the fiscal responsibility to balance the State budget by cutting spending (instead of raising taxes during a recession when unemployment is high) is kowtowing to the far right.
It was less than 6 months ago in November 2010, when the vast Majority of Texas voters elected a near Super-majority of Republicans (99 to 51 Democrats) who campaigned on a NO Tax increase pledge.
So unless Burka thinks the vast Majority of Texas voters are far right, he must have been joking that Speaker Straus “has spent the entire session kowtowing to the far right”.
LOL. See I am laughing so Burka must have been joking.
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The Old Chisum Fail says:
Paul:
This is a conservative House being led by a conservative Speaker and leadership team. This won’t be as political as the 2001 redistricting experience. There is no reason to think that rural West Texas and rural East Texas are going to fare badly just because the representatives from there have made stupid decisions (though several have). They will fare badly because the people who are able to do so are leaving those areas. The kids from there who get educated leave, too.
It’s not going to be “bloody,” just sad to those of us who grew up in rural Texas and see it fading into history.
By the way, the Appropriations bill was based on what was available to spend and not what people dream of spending. That happens in the Senate, apparently.
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longleaf Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 8:26 am
Why would you be sad to see it fade into history after denigrating it in your first graf? Rather than being sad, you should throw a party instead.
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Julie says:
To Burka is Joking:
You argue that the fiscally responsible thing to do is to cut taxes, rather than raise taxes during a recession.
I would counter that the fiscally responsible thing for the Republican leadership to do is to fulfill its 2006 commitment to provide a restructured business tax that would provide enough state revenue to replace the taxes school district lost when the Legislature lowered school district taxes rates.
The restructured business tax is falling $4 billion dollars short every two years of replacing the money that school districts lost. In addition, due to the downturn in the economy, the business tax has fallen an additional $4 billion short of expections, resulting in an $8 billion shortfall in the tax every two years.
The Republican leadership knew that the restructured business tax was inadequate in the first place, and they have admitted as much again in recent weeks. But instead of fulfilling their commitment to make school districts whole, they — and people like you — argue that the only responsible approach is to cut taxes.
That approach results in the Republican leadership breaking its commitment to replace the revenue it took away from school districts when the Legislature rolled back their tax rates.
House Speaker Joe Straus should be ashamed of himself for his continued failure to display leadership on the budget. Instead, he simply says he doesn’t see support in the House for restructuring the business tax to ensure it delivers on the GOP promise to school districts.
That’s the same as saying we — the Republican leadership — can’t be trusted to fulfill its promises.
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Erik V Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 9:06 am
You sir are you using logic. What are you doing commenting on this blog? I don’t know either.
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JohnBernardBooks says:
Speaker Straus got all 49 democrat votes, what could possibly be wrong with him?
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Delores Michael says:
Burka: “[Straus] has spent the entire session kowtowing to the far right, so that the inmates are running the asylum, and it has gotten him nowhere.”
Straus: Appointed moderate Republicans and Democrats to chairmanships.
Mr. Burka, your statement does not align with the chairmanships made by Straus.
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The Gift that Keeps on Giving says:
The same guys who led the divorced-from-reality Speakers Race accusations are leading this “fight.” Hello, people, didn’t you learn last time? When the House members (who do the voting) know the truth and like the map, all you succeed in doing is making them mad by stirring up their constituents.
It’s sad how transparent they are. They get one of Craddick’s lieutenants and his sidekick former Flanders staffer to draft a “map”–a map that is guaranteed to go nowhere since accomplishes the seemingly impossible goal of both weakening the number of seats the Republican Party can hold through the decade AND decreasing the number of minority seats in the face of massive minority growth. Then they recruit Erwin Cain to be their “floor leader.” Yes, freshman Erwin Cain. Is this the best they could do?
They don’t have the votes, so they’re trying to drag their fellow legislators through the mud to keep the pyre stoked.
This is not about winning for them–if it were they would have at least tried to put forth something other than an amateurly-drawn map and assembled more than the same handful of supporters for it.
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longhorn50 says:
Paul…you are right on in your assesment of the speaker. The fact that he allows our local state rep, David Simpson to have any voice at all is at the root of the problem. This guy is a genuine wack job and needs to be silenced with much haste!
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 8:21 am
Longhorn50, is that a threat against Rep. Simpson? Put President Obama’s name in place of Rep. Simpson and see if the Secret Service doesn’t come ask you some questions.
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Pining Woods says:
That’s right Erwin Cain, who as a candidate refused to deny the accusation of selling illegal drugs. Yeah that’s REALLY who I’d pick to present a map to the House! Why isn’t Wayne Christian filing this map since he is blasting emails all over the state promoting it?
Just as “The Gift…” pointed out above, the map is the creation of Joe Nixon (i.e. Ten Worst List 2003) and Ned Flanders former staffer – the same gruesome twosome that ran up Dan Neil’s legal bills in his unsuccessful election challenge.
Once again, the Keystone Cops of the House are making their mark – just showing the House and the entire world why they will NEVER be ready for prime time.
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Frayed Knot says:
Paul isn’t this just what Strauss folks said…..no matter what happens you will be asked over and over to vote the hard core way.
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StrangeBedfellows says:
So now I hear that Jessica Ferrar and Rafael Anchia are trying to cut a deal with Tom Craddick. Apparently they are not happy with the speaker (like it really matters). So they are willing to sell their soul and support Craddick maps or those he chooses and they think they can get the vast majority of the D’s on board? Ferrar has lost her marbles and anchia will always sit on the bench for making stupid choices.
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Anonymous says:
“Perry will likely send redistricting to the board, probably with whispered instructions to draw a map that pairs Straus loyalists and insulates the conservatives from potential challengers.”
This would be true if the LRB was made up of Perry enthusiasts. But look at the composition, the speaker, lt guv, comptroller, attorney general, and land commissioner. I would say that at least three of them have butted heads with Perry in the last 2-3 years and I doubt they are willing to accept his orders.
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Aunt Bea Atch says:
Listen ‘ere yung’ens!
This hippity-do about drawing maps to reflect those silly people who voted in the last election is as crazy as selling ice cream at the north pole. You draw the maps to represent the people, whether they voted or not. Don’t draw the maps to reflect a bunch of yahoos who home-school their chil’ren and still use outhouses!
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Kenneth D. Franks says:
Republicans can’t protect all of their gains. It just depends on who is granted more protection and who is hung to dry. If they draw a lot of districts that are deeply Republican there will be more districts that Democrats can win. If they draw a lot of closer districts they could be looking at a resurgence of Democratic gains in the next two or three cycles and some gains this coming cycle. There are a couple of plans I actually think are O.K., and I have looked at many of them. One, maybe two, I don’t think pass any test especially (communities of interest) and some plans are O.K in some parts of the state and not in other parts of the state. I’m not naming specific plans on purpose since I wouldn’t want to be on the record supporting any particular one.
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MikeO says:
It IS recognized by both sides that the GOP will lose a handful seats. The problem is that there was some unnecessary matchups in the rural areas- ones that smack of nothing but political retribution- as well as some absurd districts, like one 11 counties long and one wide. There are actually (gasp!) compromises in the works that should satisfy as many on both sides as possible. Unless the ‘Austin machine’ demands its political retribution against those that dared listen to their constituents, in which case it will set up a rather wasteful state house primary war.
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Dems in 2012 says:
Sarah Davis is very unhappy with the Republican partisan vitrol. She is soon realizing that her new party has no room for her. Look for her to bail out. Likely before the chickens come home to roost
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Anonymous says:
Straus has to start cutting deals with the conservatives or the map dies.
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Looney Tunes Reply:
April 27th, 2011 at 6:21 am
Anonymous says, “Straus has to start cutting deals with the conservatives or the map dies.”
Thank you for comic relief this morning. 135-15.
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Looney Tunes Reaffirm says:
Looney Tunes is right. Thank you for the morning chuckle from ‘Anonymous.’ Medication might jolt this person into reality (Dems in 2012 also) but I would not count on it.
129-21 to 135-15 on rejection of the Nixon/Trainor/Drug Dealer Cain map.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Looney, you think the GOP would go that far in eliminating more Dems and extend their big majority in the Texas House ?
I don’t see the State Senate numbers changing until at least 2018 (if Dems get their act together by then).
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