04/28/11: Sand castles on the shore
The next time that the Texas House of Representatives draws a redistricting map, in 2021, Texas is going to be a very different state. As the House debated redistricting and fought over whether Republican cartographers had awarded Hispanics enough new seats, the clock was already ticking on the new Republican majority. The demographic tsunami that swept over the state in the first decade of the new century is a not an event. It’s a process–and it’s not reversible.
I looked up the projected growth of the major urban counties in the next decade on the Web site of the Texas State Data Center. Here are some numbers. They are not based on census data but rather on the complex formulas demographers use. In projecting population growth, it is important to adopt a realistic growth scenario. I have chosen 0.5 — that is, I assume that migration will be half as much as during the nineties, a decade during which immigration was at a higher level than it is now. I view this as a conservative scenario. The number generated by the formulas is within the ballpark of the census numbers; that is, the census showed Texas with a population of around 25 million in 2010, while the demographic data produced a projection of 24,330,646.
Using the 0.5 immigration scenario, here is what Texas will look like in 2020:
2010 (projected):
Anglo population 11,533,975
Hispanic population 9,080,458
2020 (projected):
Anglo population: 11,796,448
Hispanic population: 11,882,960
If the projections are right, the state’s Hispanic population will overtake the Anglo population by 2020 — within the lifetime of the map that was adopted by the House.
Here’s what happens in the state’s two most populous counties (although Dallas may be overtaken by Bexar and Tarrant by 2020):
Harris County
2010 (projected):
Anglo population: 1,378,978
Hipanic population 1,610,819
2020 (projected):
Anglo population: 1,262,352
Hispanic population: 2,187,082
Dallas County
2010 (projected)
Anglo population: 1,378,978
Hispanic population: 2,187,082
This one is interesting:
Midland County
2010 (projected)
Anglo population: 66,362
Hispanic population: 44,559
2020 (projected)
Anglo population: 63,825
Hispanic population: 60,642
The point is this: Hispanic population growth is not going to stop. Hispanic birth rates are not going to decline. Anglo population growth and birth rates are not going to improve. Republicans can draw their maps but they will be no more enduring than sand castles on the shore.
Evan says:
Now only if the Hispanic population would… you know… vote.
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Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
Between 2000 and 2040, Anglos will account for 4.2 percent of the state’s population growth….Hispanics, 78 percent, according to demographer Steve Murdock.
For the first 10 years (2000-2010), Anglos represented 4.2 percent of the growth, while Hispanics accounted for 65 percent.
As Murdock noted a couple of months ago: “Basically, it’s over for Anglos.”
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Here we go again! Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
They don’t…..they won’t.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Sandcastles on the shore? All districts are that way. All the maps Democrats drew around the nation in 1991 didn’t help them in 1994. The map the GOP drew in PA in 2001 elected a 12-7 GOP majority in 2002 and then by 2008 it was 12-7 Dem. I don’t think most redistricting plans hold up well over 10 years when they are drawn in a way where they are too cute and clever.
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Roadgeek says:
Indeed. Everyone is still waiting for the Hispanics to rise up and, wielding their new-found electoral might, cast out the evil Anglos. Pundits have been holding their breath since the 90′s waiting for this to happen.
Didn’t happen then. Didn’t happen last year. Won’t happen next year. Won’t happen in 2020.
Hispanic voters don’t care about the levers of power and have little in the way of leadership to energize them.
And those expecting the Hispanics to vote as a bloc, when they do start voting, are in for a nasty surprise. Hispanics will vote their pocketbook, just like anyone else, especially as more and more Hispanics join the middle class. Simply being Brown and D won’t be enough to gain their vote.
Sorry, Paul.
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RonKab Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 10:20 pm
Look at how we’ve treated the illegal Hispanic population. If the legislature passes the Debbie Riddle-style bills making their way though the pipeline, what happens when legal Hispanic Texans start getting mistakenly detained? What happens when Hispanic Texans start getting fed up with all the negative rhetoric spewed by conservatives? What happens if Hispanic Texans end up feeling discriminated against (or feel disenfranchised from the conservative side of the Republican party). The backlash could be significant, from not only Hispanic Texans but other outraged Texans. Remember, a “Democrat” in Texas would be the equivalent of a “Republican” in many other states. If the meanness continues, I would not count on Hispanic Texans sitting on their hands. You are playing with fire. You could be burned in 2012/14.
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Taxpayer says:
My daughter is married to a 5th-generation Mexican-Texan. They only know of one person in their family who voted D. The rest voted mostly R and some straight R. I know that’s anectdotal, but many, many (maybe most) Mexican-Texans consider themselves Americans first, and recognize that the same problems of overspending and overtaxing that bothers Anglos also bothers them.
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Evan says:
Re: Taxpayer
Wait, where in Texas is there overspending and overtaxing? Or are you talking about those Mexican-Texans in Norway?
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vbtexan says:
The hispanic middle class in the suburban counties may vote their pocketbook, but I doubt hispanics like in the city and suburbs of Dallas County will change their voting habits much from the current 65-35 D/R split.
Paul is right. The Solomons map buys 10 more years for the Republicans by packing inner suburban Dems in veteran Republican districts or by putting hispanics in districts held by african americans. Time will tell on hispanic turnout, but one can be sure it will be higher than it is now in ten years.
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Tim says:
“overspending and overtaxing that bothers Anglos also bothers them”
I don’t understand why you would say that if they vote Republican? Taxes under Obama are the lowest level they’ve been in our lifetimes, and most of the US debt was accrued under Republican leadership. Obviously if they were concerned about those issues they’d vote Democratic.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
nice try. First, Congress appropriates the money and under Reagan and the first Bush, Congress was D. Second, when deficits went down “under Clinton” we had a Republican Congress. Third, whatever damage was done to the deficit “under Bush” is child’s play compared to Obama and his first two years of a Democratic Congress.
Nice try.
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Anonymous Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
From 1981 to 1987 the US Senate was run by Republicans. Obama only inherited a financial collapse and the worse recession recorded.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
yeah, and then he spent us into oblivion and it did little to nothing in terms of creating jobs or stimulating the economy…but it did stimulate the growth of government.
Karen Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Critics Still Wrong on What’s Driving Deficits in Coming Years
Economic Downturn, Financial Rescues, and Bush-Era Policies Drive the Numbers
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=3036
Anonymous Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
cow droppings doesn’t beging to describe this statement.
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Karen Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 4:49 am
The very same thing can be said about the Heritage Foundation.
Karen Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 5:16 am
“Gov. (Rick) Perry helped balance his budget with about $6 billion worth of federal help, which he happily took, and then started blaming the members of Congress who had offered that help.”
http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2011/apr/24/barack-obama/president-obama-says-gov-perry-used-stimulus-fund-/
Karen Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 5:33 am
“We have created more jobs in this last year than the Bush administration (did) in eight years.”
http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2011/apr/28/joe-biden/vice-president-joe-biden-says-there-were-more-new-/
Karen Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Facts About Obama Spending and Debt
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/03/02/951805/-Facts-About-Obama-Spending-and-Debt-
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Off the Mark Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 5:11 pm
Very few things can be taken from Daily Kos as fact.
Anonymous Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 6:22 pm
Karen
Bringing Soros’ Daily Kos on this site is so fitting. What’s wrong every other media outlet was not liberal enough for you ?
The nat’t dem establishment: Soros, other mega rich, media, academia all can’t dismiss the fact that the deficit was under 400 bil and is now 1.6 trillion. Obama got all he wanted in “stimulus,” more than any other president in a long time and its all failed to date.
Karen Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 5:24 am
Obama came into office “with a $1.3 trillion deficit before I had passed any law. … We came in with $8 trillion worth of debt over the next decade.”
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/jan/29/barack-obama/obama-inherited-deficits-bush-administration/
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JUICE says:
I don’t assume Hispanics will vote Democratic (or vote at all), but I also don’t assume Hispanics will join the middle class. After all these years of Republican corporate favoritism and promoting the concentration of wealth I don’t believe there will much of a middle class to join.
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Blue says:
In the long run, we’re all dead. The Anglo-Hispanic distinction will become a whole lot less important over the next two decades as our kids and our kids-kids blend the two heritages together.
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Garyfan Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
Assuming that most of the increase comes from reproduction and not immigration, Blue is correct. With the further assimilation of each generation, this will seem like the worries about the Irish taking over Boston or the Italians taking over New York would have been a hundred years ago. Significant sounding at the time but largely irrelevant today.
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Guadalupe Bass Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Blue is dead on. (Where else can you get a German sausage on a tortilla?) My tow-headed Anglo kid goes to school in a district that’s 75% Hispanic and I wouldn’t have it any other way. The future is here.
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Governor Toolshed says:
All this means is that EVERY election will be about abortion.
Keep’em poor, undereducated, and make sure the pope’s nosering is fastened securely… voila! They’re all Republicans!
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Lou says:
Paul, question ?
Did Solomons sacrifice any chance of ever taking Howard’s seat to shore up Workman ?
Did Wooley endanger her district in Harris to shore Bohac, Murphy and Davis ?
Did Larry Taylor actually save Craig Eiland;s house career ? If so, why ?
Thank you in advance for any info you may have.
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Anonymous Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:52 pm
Larry Taylor deserves a primary challenge. Absolutely no congressional seat. He unnecessarily kept Eiland out of unfavorable pcts in the north county and instead gave him good pcts in mid county.
Adios Rep Taylor. Nice knowing you. You caved and maybe your new friends at the TTLA will hire you to sell them insurance.
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anon-p Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 9:34 pm
What Solomons did to Travis County is downright criminal. The county can support at least two, and arguably three Republican districts. And it got reduced to a shaky two, although I doubt Republicans can hold 48 over time if they manage to win it. I hope the Speaker extracted some serious concessions from the Travis County folk on that.
Pflugerville got sliced and diced, and I’m sure that all but ensures Mark Strama will become forever ensconced as the next Dunnam.
It’s nice to see they cleared up the 149 mess and the “both car doors open” district. Frisco/Rockwall is still an eyesore along with some of the gerrymandered stuff in Dallas and Tarrant.
Leander and Cedar Park folk just picked up their first State House district in perhaps the most dramatic display of compact and contiguous and culturally unified ever seen. Kudos to that.
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vbtexan Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 8:11 am
No way 3 GOP districts can be drawn in Travis. Did you see what happened when they tried in 2001?
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anon-p Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
vbtexan> No way 3 GOP districts can be drawn in Travis. Did you see what happened when they tried in 2001?
As a Republican, I’d take three iffies to the one safe R + five guaranteed D seats that came out of this travesty of a Travis County redraw.
At the very least, Solomons could have thrown the Travis County Rs a bone and paired some D incumbents.
I’m not even sure the Democrats could have drawn a more favorable Travis County map for themselves if they had a 100 person House majority, Senate majority, and Governorship.
paulburka Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 11:03 pm
I think Republicans decided to cut their losses in Travis County by making sure they got one seat (Workman). I doubt that District 48 would be fertile territory for Neil.
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Viva the Revolution says:
I agree with Paul. When we finally get to the point where Hispanics are the majority and elect a Democratic majority in the Texas Legislature and have a Democrat Governor, we win.
We Democrats can finally implement social justice here in Texas and spread the wealth from all the rich white people to the poor Hispanics.
We Democrats will then be able to do our best to turn Texas into another Mexico so that we will no longer be evil capitalists.
No more rich white people. It is our turn.
Viva the Revolution.
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Here we go again! Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Once again….Hispanics don’t vote….Hispanics won’t vote.
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Palmer says:
Some seem to think that Hispanic population gains will accompany a major shift in Texas political power concentration.
In reality, most Hispanics are hard working, have wonderful “family values” and some are moderate in their political outlook and conservative in fiscal and social attitudes.
Just as not all Anglos vote Republican, not all Hispanics will vote Democrat!
As said before, most Hispanics will vote their pocketbook.
Posted by an Anglo Independent Conservative.
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vbtexan says:
Although Solomons map basically ends any hope of a comeback career for Allen Vaught and Carol Kent, Robert Miklos has a path in HD107 albeit a tough one, and Kirk England has a shot at HD105. The GOP can’t draw a 8R-6D map and expect it to hold when Dallas County is at least 52% Dem at worst and 57% Dem at best.
My question to Burka what were they thinking on HD33? Frisco will outvote Rockwall in an R primary but why lump the two together?
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Collin County Politico Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 6:02 pm
HD 33 was apparently drawn the way it was to punish Ken Paxton for running against Straus. Paxton lives in McKinney, but it separates him from his megachurch political base in Frisco.
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paulburka Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 11:07 pm
I believe that the new Republican districts in Dallas and Tarrant counties are transitory. This is where demographics will kick in. The two parties will be contesting these seats for ten years. On the other hand, I don’t think Democrats will be successful in Garland. It is too conservative and too redneck.
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Anonymous Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 9:39 am
Is the Hispanic population of Texas going to be closer in ideology/voting by 2020 to the California Hispanic population or the Florida Hispanic population?
That’s something nobody knows right now, but my guess is if you have upward economic mobility within Texas’ Hispanic population, you’re looking at a voting demographic more akin to Florida by 2021 than to California, where the dominant political culture and differing migration patterns due to geography make the population growth there act more like the Hispanic population growth in the Metro New York City region than that of the non-border areas of Texas.
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paulburka Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 10:50 am
The prospect of benefiting from rising affluence means that the Hispanic population will vote in greater numbers and will, in my opinion, vote like the white middle class, except on social issues. I think the Valley will be up for grabs by 2020.
longleaf Reply:
April 30th, 2011 at 8:18 am
@Anonymous 9:39 “Hispanic” is an overbroad term, as many designated as such will tell you. There is not a whole lot of commonality aside from mother tongue between the Cuban- and Puerto Rican-descended residents of Florida and the Mexican- or Central American-descended residents of Texas.
No reason to deal says:
But they will continue to vote 65% + for Dems. That alone will be enough.
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He Who Knows Everything says:
There will be a significant % of Hispanic vote for the Republicans. Inter marriage, large migration to middle income, and conversion to charismatic religion will overtake growth in numbers. Ferenbach and many other Texas historians understood that the Hispanic culture is so strong that assimilation would be slower than other Texas immigrants.
However, The Texas culture (which is conservative) would prevail because it does not require the immigrant to deny the traditions of the immigrant. The more the change the more it stays the same.
As long as Texas maintains its economic success its political position will not change. Low taxes, small government, property rights (law suits), right to work, in other words Capitalism has always led to prosperity. Of course grandpa striking oil on his land doesn’t hurt.
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Jimi says:
Castles made of sand slip into the sea, eventually.
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anita Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 9:42 pm
Actually, they fall, and then melt, before they slip.
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Rog says:
For those who think Hispanics don’t vote. Look up the Mayor of San Antonio and his twin brother. They are the future.
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CastroCastro Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Castro brothers are way too liberal for conservative Hispanic values. No way they could win outside the bubble.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 8:58 pm
The Castro Bros are the future just like Gov. Henry Cisneros once was.
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Bob McAllister says:
Paul, I’m not sure I get your title. Aren’t all districts made out of sand? That’s why we have redistricting every decade.
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Democratic Savior = demographic change says:
Paul and Bob Stein of Rice are getting old in many ways. Least of which is the years in which they continue to project this demographic change as the savior of the liberal party. It’s as if the last decade never occurred because they said the exact same thing then; and even before then.
The house map last night was a unique occasion. Paul could have addressed some of the more unique stories of that map rather than rehash the same old same old. Then again, 99% of his readers want to feel good somehow, so play it again Sam , or Paul, Bob, etc.
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RonKab Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 10:32 pm
If the Republican Party keeps going to the right, especially on social issues, then lots of Texans (including Hispanic Texans) could end up abandoning the party and moving the Democratic Party from the middle to the middle-right and vastly swelling their numbers. Besides, here in Texas, there aren’t that many true liberals. Republicans just call them liberals. Shoot, people on this blog call Paul a liberal. They call Strauss a liberal. They’re delusional, but amusing.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 9:39 am
Democrats only have one horse(race) and they will ride it till it dies.
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oof says:
I wonder if the Hispanic population growth anticipated for 2020 would perhaps be significantly lower if we actually deported all the illegals…
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Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 6:23 am
Oof
You folks want to blame “the illegals” for all your problems; if not for them, you’d be blaming blacks; if not for them, the poor. YOu are always needing a bogeyman.
The fact of the matter: only about 5 percent of the Texas population is not here legally, according to demographers. You can’t blame our problems on folks who clean your homes, wash your dishes, manicure your yards; process your meat, build your homes, etc. etc.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 7:14 am
you’re post has no truth or facts. We would and do blame the liberals in the democrat party for all thats wrong.
Democrats want to make it about race, skin color or class warfare.
Republicans make it about conservatives vs liberals.
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vbtexan Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 10:17 am
Kinda hard to blame the Dems for state matters since the GOP controls all levers of government. Oh I forgot, you’ll just blame Obama.
Oof Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
As you fly off the handle and assume that I support deporting illegals, I was legitimately curious about how deportation of illegal immigrants might effect the projected numbers.
But since you want to go down that road…
Demographers say about only 5 % of the population is illegal…that they know of. Let’s go out on a limb and say there is room for deviation in the stats and that number might be significantly higher.
Second of all, don’t minimize the importance of the fact that they are here illegally just because the percentage seems small to you. 5% is a whole hell of a lot of of people to fund for a state that is so deeply in debt. What percentage would be “too high” for you Tellnitlikeitis.
Third, on behalf of the illegals that are here, don’t reduce their labor value to simply yard men and maids. And just FYI, I mow my own yard and wash my dishes.
I’m not looking to blame. I am looking to take into account both scenarios of a possible future. One with, and one without illegals.
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Anonymous says:
oof is a conservative imposter. Perhaps a mainstay of this blog. A Texas Monthly “conservative” guest when they try to show a semblance of balance.
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Alan says:
If Hispanics remain a heavily Democratic-leaning ethnic constituency, it will be for reasons similar to those that made African-Americans go from the most loyally Republican voters in the country to people who won’t go near the GOP with a 10-foot pole.
People forget that when Richard Nixon ran for president in 1960, almost a third of blacks voted for him. They forget that blacks supported liberal Republicans like Dwight Eisenhower and conservative Republicans like Herbert Hoover in 1928. Then along came Barry Goldwater opposing the civil rights act and Nixon 2.0 using thinly veiled appeals to working class white racism and resentment. A Republican getting more than 10% of the black vote nowadays is considered a “good showing.”
Many Republicans are still using these sort of appeals to fear of the “other.” Now that white flight and the decline of inner cities have run their course, the new concern is “taking back *our* country.” The implicit target of these calls to arms is Hispanics. If Debbie Riddle has her way, Hispanics will only be allowed under the GOP’s big tent if they show a birth certificate and two forms of photo ID first.
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Blue Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Alan, that is an ahistorical reading. Democrats have worked very hard to construct a web of race-based patronage benefits that are largely directed at urban blacks.
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Alan Reply:
April 29th, 2011 at 6:57 pm
Politicians in general construct webs of patronage benefits for whatever constituency they happen to represent. It’s more obvious when the constituency is a visible minority of some sort.
I previously worked in the district office of a Republican U.S. Representative from Texas (I won’t say which one). I was truly disgusted by some of the phone calls I had to take from district residents saying things about Hispanics and immigrants in general that I cannot repeat on this blog. I can honestly say that if I were a Hispanic, I would never associate myself with the Republican Party, whatever my political beliefs were. If I was an economically conservative Hispanic, I’d be a Libertarian.
I come from a family that has been a part of the GOP since the Civil War. I’ve heard my grandparents and other people in my family talk about how different the Texas GOP is from the way it was 30, 40, even 50 years ago. I still vote in their primaries and for some of their candidates, but I’m sincerely embarrassed by so many of those people and the things they say and do.
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Galveston County Jack. says:
An earlier blog mentioned Larry Taylor’s “protecting” Craig Eiland. Finding this allegation disturbing, I made a few calls. I learned that Larry wants to run for a new congressional seat that will be created in the area. His saving Craig is a “peace offering” to Steve Mostyn to not go too hard on Larry in the congressional. Having helped Larry for a long time, I find this action to be an abomination. I will dedicate my remaining days in the grass roots aggressively opposing any promotion for this cowardly turncoat.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Yeah, these is bad juju on Taylor’s part.
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frank in gc says:
Voted for taylor against ei circa 98. Even gave some $.if this is true about new district.never again never never
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Oof says:
And vbtexan- sorry, I didn’t mean to post that under your reply : )
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Anonymous says:
The Travis County D’s did draw thier own map.
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Frank says:
Galveston County is a new GOP bastion. Thanks to Taylor, Eiland emerged w a more d district than before. Taylor says he needs Eiland’s help w UTMB in Galveston. A bit nutty. 102 Repubs and the house chair can’t deliver a majority ? The certain Republican who would have eilnd’s seat would not vote w Taylor? This is nuts. Kind of like Taylor’s perf on Houston CH 11 news investigation of his business practices. HD 24 needs a new rep pronto !
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