Could It Get Worse?
After last night’s dramatic play by Senator Davis, the calculation this morning seems to be: Will the Dems fare better or worse in a special? There is still time to undo the maneuver, if six Democrats join the Rs in a 4/5 vote to suspend the rules today. Perry’s spokesperson promised even before Davis pulled the trigger that there would be consequences if the Democrats went nuclear. (You have to wonder if there will also be consequences for Straus and Pitts, for waiting so long to debate fiscal matters and school finance–if, as Harvey Kronberg observed yesterday, “debate” is the right term for last night’s brief treatment of the second most important bill of the session.)
But what about those “consequences” for the Democrats? It’s hard to see the budget deal getting any worse from their perspective. What are the Rs going to do? Move more money out of Medicaid, making the 2013 supplemental, already estimated at around $5 billion, even larger? Cut public ed even more? House members could barely swallow the cuts they had to make to their ISDs this time around. (Ten more no’s in the House, and Davis wouldn’t have had to filibuster anything.) There’s always sanctuary cities, which died in the Senate when the Ds declined to suspend the rules to debate it. But did the Rs ever really want to vote on that one? It’s no secret the leadership has always been split on draconian immigration bills–big money donors like Bob Perry always fight them, and forward thinking consultants tell them it’s bad for the long term prospects of the party in a state that is now majority-minority.
This was one of those times when it was useful to have the 2/3 rule, so the Dems could be safely blamed. Of course, in a special, the rule wouldn’t apply. It’s up to Perry to decide what is on the agenda, and he has already promised a special as early as tomorrow. Difficult calculations all around this morning. One assumes that running over Davis in redistricting was not a difficult calculation. Then again, there’s nothing more dangerous than a politician with nothing to lose.
NATE BLAKESLEE
Tagged: special session, wendy davis
PDiddie says:
A special for education. Oh, the irony.
And I was told the defeat of ‘sanctuary cities’ was a “strategic victory” for Perry …
http://blog.chron.com/bakerblog/2011/05/the-death-of-the-%E2%80%9Csanctuary-cities%E2%80%9D-bill-a-strategic-victory-for-gov-perry/
If Governor Secede adds it to a special, then he’s headed for a strategic defeat … using Teabagger pretzel logic, anyway. How do the Republicans blame its failure on the Democrats a second time if a simple majority can get it passed?
Rick Perry is three-dimensional checkmating himself.
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Bob says:
This is the analysis we get after last night? It’s ok this blog is more stone age than Kronberg, but it should at least have some quality to it, rare as it is.
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2L says:
Bob:
Thanks for adding your insights.
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Bodhisattva says:
Good analysis, even with Bob’s contributions.
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Governor Toolshed says:
It’s almost as if they dared her to knock it off and she took the bait. I mean, how easy could they make it? Filibuster for an hour? And still, so little time and she couldn’t speak from the heart, but chose instead to read?
They all needed an excuse to come back up here… their fragile egos cannot stand to be neglected during an interim, when people revert back to not caring who these dorks are (staff too, egomaniacs-in-training with no world experience who get a kick out of the attention).
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Anonymous says:
Well, wendy davis’ last hours on the floor will ensure more of the conservative agenda gets passed, such as sanctuary cities. Hell, she may even hand the trial lawyers a defeat on TWIA.
Or, the D senators will cave, get us to 25 and turn out the lights.
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TWIA Anyway? says:
Didn’t Perry already say he’d bring everyone back for TWIA? How is he going to call a special for that and not add these other bills?
Bottom line: With or without ed finance bill, there would be a special session.
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Filibusters Have Consequences says:
I think the consequences that Perry’s people were referencing is that he will now stay in town rather than leave the state to run for president.
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Throw me in the briar patch says:
Looks to me like the best of both worlds for the Ds. Credit for stopping Sanctuary Cities in the regular, but able to use it for voter turnout after a simple majority passes it in the special.
And nothing to lose. What are they going to do to Wendy Davis? Redistrict her out of her seat? And as already pointed out, if they starve public ed any further, they’ll lose R votes (and seats).
At least the Ds now stand for something.
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Soothsayer says:
Davis has never gotten how the Senate – or politics, for that matter – works. You never filibuster without an end game or a strategic plan. You don’t kill bills on a wing and a prayer; especially when it changes the rules of the game (i.e. special session) and those new rules work against you.
The Lege is already at a point where they need a break and need to cool off. Flaring tempers never make good law or good public policy. But now Libs face the prospect of being mowed down because people want to get out of here.
So the end result may be far worse for Democrats and Libs will have one of their own, Wendy Davis, to thank for that.
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JUICE says:
Bring on Sanctuary Cities. Make it as bad as possible. Then make it an election issue. Nothing else is getting non-Angry Anglos to the polls, what the hell?
And the other post, about vetoing senate redistricting and sending it to the LRB? They already drew Davis out of existence and gave Watson a district that could elect a Republican somewhere down the line, and they can’t work over the minority Ds without running afoul of the VRA, so what’s to gain? I’m betting a number of the Republcian senators might take issue with this idea.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
May 30th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
a majority of Texas Hispanics in past polling believe you should show an ID to vote. Your race-baiting political strategy has no teeth.
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MajorTom says:
Some hard-right conservatives I know are thanking Davis for setting the table.
Sanctuary Cities lives again… and school finance can be used as cover for a “do-over” for immigration reform. Perry wins yet again.
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The People's Elbow says:
Maybe so Major Tom, but it certainly seems that filibustering a budget that cuts billions from public schools is a pretty major policy point to run on in November for Democrats. And the choice of Davis to perform the filibuster is very telling on Dems view of the issue, which is that they think it will play to Moderates/Independents which Davis will have to win in droves in her new district.
And what is the R’s retribution? Sanctuary Cities? I think that cuts both ways. That is a bill that polls poorly among Hispanics across the ideological spectrum. And when it comes down to it, it is a bill that probably won’t do a whole lot. And the budget? What are they going to do? Punish the Democrats by cutting MORE from Public Schools? Bad idea, but if the R’s want to do that, they can. Increase public school funding thus handing Davis and the Dems a victory? Again, I am not sure that is the direction you want to go.
Perry and the R’s have the power to do whatever they want, and that’s just what they did in the Regular. I don’t see how repeating the same painful process over the summer with increased public scrutiny benefits them.
TWIA was going to a Special regardless.
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Soothsayer says:
Democrats don’t realize that unemployed Americans of all races are fed up with our open border. This falls under the category of “be careful what you wish for…” Top this off with having to share the ballot with Barack Obama in 2012, Democrats will find Texas to be brutal next year, brutal.
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anita says:
Democrats not only have nothing to lose, they have everything to gain.
Perry and Dewhurst planted the seeds of all this — they pushed Ds to the point of having no skin in the game, no interest in being part of the process. That’s very risky and foolish to do.
Second, the R’s have only one real threat, and that’s overplaying their hand. If they continue with their hard right agenda, they risk alienating suburban moderates.
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Harley N. says:
A Republican presidential wannabe who can only poll 4 percent support for the job among Texas Republicans doesn’t really have a whole lot of leverage to bring to the table, does he? I guess he can grandstand Sanctuary Cities and Shutting Down The Evil Public Schools to the rest of the know-nothing teapartiers around the country, but that presidential preference poll shows that even Republicans in Texas have had quite enough of Governor Goodhair. After two decades of being paid with tax dollars, a real job in the private sector might do him a world of good.
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Anon. says:
Right, those dumb Democrats! This just gives Perry an opportunity to add sanctuary cities to the call, just like he added voter ID to the special session in 2009…oh wait…
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JohnBernardBooks says:
DEmocrats once again show they could less what the voters wanted.
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Harley N. says:
JBB, I can pretty much guarantee you that the voters, of whatever party, do not want to see public school closings and mass teacher layoffs. No one, including the teaparty freshmen, campaigned on that, and if they think there won’t be repercussions from it in 2012, then they’re too disconnected from political reality to deserve relection anyway.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 4:05 pm
hahaha omg another democrat who believes “do not want to see public school closings and mass teacher layoffs.” you forgot killing women, starving children and kicking old folks out of homes.
Just how gullible are democrats? LBJ always said if you tell a lie enough democrats will believe it.
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AreYouKiddingMe says:
Davis just handed the teabaggers more rope to hang themselves with. The true deficit in leadership was that the House never even “debated” school finance. And, in the Senate, it seems Shapiro is the be all, end all, to all matters education. She has consistently and arrogantly ignored what EDUCATORS have told her over the past two years. SHE has a plan, and by God we are going to like it! Cut public ed 4 Billion, then add days of testing and raise the stakes. Now that is good, common sense leadership from the lady from Plano! Wow…
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JohnBernardBooks says:
Davis is the new Ann Richards, will she “save” democrats?
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Lake Worth Monster Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Be careful what you wish for, JBB. You mau just get it someday.
And you might want to check the spelling and punctuation in your posts. It shows either a lack of education or a lack of attention.
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