More on Paddie vs. Christian, HD 9
This is an analysis of the race that was developed by the Paddie camp. It is published as it was sent to me. Quoting the analysis:
Basically the district can be divided into 3 parts:
1). Christian base. This is Shelby and Sabine [counties] that are currently in Christian’s District. In the last GOP primary, these two combine for 26% of the vote of the newly configured district.
2). Neutral. This is Cass and Marion which are now in HD 1. George Lavender [the incumbent in HD 1 --pb] is not endorsing in this race. These two combine for 17.69% of the vote. Like Paddie’s Harrison County, they are on the North part of the district.
3). Paddie base. Paddie is Mayor of Marshall, the biggest county, and broadcasts his radio show countywide. This county alone, was a huge 44% of the 2008 vote, 39.37% of the 2010 vote. But Paddie grew up and graduated from High School in Carthage, Panola County. His family runs the radio station there in Carthage. Panola had 17.18% of the vote in 2010. These two Paddie “base” counties combined for 56.31% of the vote (of the new district) in 2010. Paddie also lived in Shelby County (Christian’s home) and is not without support there, but would likely cede most of the support there to Christian.
So, the scenario [which I described in yesterday's post--pb] of the smaller counties ganging up against the big county is quite less likely in this district. Paddie will be the hometown favorite for more than 56% of the Republican voters and he has a better than even chance of getting his share of his next door neighbors Cass and Marion. Jefferson, Texas (Marion County) is 17 miles from Marshall and 72 miles away from Center, where Christian lives. Linden (County seat of Cass) is a full 100 miles away from Christian’s hometown but a short drive for Paddie.
To summarize, Paddie starts out with a 20% advantage in home county GOP vote size. When you extend to their broader bases, the advantage goes to +30% for Paddie.
And the two remaining smaller counties do not provide much comfort for Christian. They are clearly in Paddie’s backyard. Any appeal to “I am from a small county and so are you” would probably not be too effective.
[end of analysis]
My comment:
No one should be surprised that the district has been drawn in a way that makes it difficult for Christian to be reelected. Clearly, the Straus team would like to see someone else representing HD-9. What I don’t know is whether Solomons et al drew the district with the aim of eliminating Christian, or whether the population numbers were such that the district fell into place naturally. There really wasn’t anywhere for the district to go. It was blocked on the east by the Louisiana state line, on the north by HD-1, on the south by the Golden Triangle, and on the west by the relatively large counties of Nacogdoches and Rusk.
Tagged: Chris Paddie, George Lavender, House redistricting, Joe Straus, wayne christian
Blue Dogs says:
Straus is going to be a very powerful player in the Texas Legislature when they come back for legislative session in 2013…..with Perry staying as governor while Dewhurst goes to the US Senate.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
What? You downplay Governor Perry’s chance of winning the Republican nomination for President? I’d suggest you take a look at the polls…
Reply »
anita Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Perry peaked about a week ago.
Reply »
Pat Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 11:55 pm
Oh how I wish you were right.
Fatima says:
What type of radio show?
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
I think he hosts a talk show
Reply »
RMR says:
If he has a radio show does the other guy get free air time?
Reply »
anita Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 3:32 pm
The station could either give free air time to the other candidate (e.g., “equal time”), or the on-air candidate may go off the air for campaign period.
Reply »
Kenneth D. Franks Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 7:52 pm
Christian has his own radio program on two stations.
K.D.E.T. in Center,Texas. He also has had a comment show on 103.9 in Hemphill.
Reply »
duhh.... says:
Christian definitely has a race on his hands, but will probably make it through. He already has Bryan Hughes banging the drum for him over there.
Most importantly, the GOP primary in this area is DOMINATED by Christian conservatives whose primary focus are social issues. Wayne Christian plays to this constituency better than anybody.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
He plays alright. He just doesn’t deliver. All hat and no cattle. LOT’S of HAT.
Reply »
b Reply:
September 2nd, 2011 at 11:06 pm
Bryan Hughes is clearly in with Paddie. They are seen together throughout Marshall and Harrison County together.
Reply »
Informed Reply:
September 14th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
Except only not–Bryan Hughes has endorsed Wayne Christian.
Reply »
BackUpMembers says:
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/16954061#utm_campaign=synclickback&source=http://www.myeasttexasnews.com/thetalkofeasttexas.htm&medium=16954061
Reply »
Fatima Reply:
August 30th, 2011 at 9:28 am
I listened to some of the radio program. Makes Garrison Keillor seem exciting.
Reply »
Just Another Joe says:
Paul,
One thing you said in this post really caught my eye, that “the Straus team would like to see someone else represent HD 9″. While a good observation, the interesting question it leads to is will Straus get activly invloved in someone else representing HD 9?
This, and other potential races, are going to tell us a lot about the Speaker’s character. Remember that as a member what finally drove him out of Craddick’s corner was his disapproval of Craddick going after incumbent members of their party simply to replace his nay sayers with potential supporters.
Speaker Straus now has a clear list of nay sayers. This was a bitter (though not close) Speakers race and there was a record vote taken. The question that lingers in my mind is has Straus’ position that a Speaker shouldn’t go after his party’s own changed now that he is the Speaker?
We will know soon enough.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 8:36 pm
I can’t see Straus going after incumbent Republicans who didn’t mess in his business. Christian is a different story. He remained part of the anti-Straus cabal, such as it was, for the entire session. He is not a constructive member of the Legislature. The people Craddick went after were good members, like Brian McCall and Carter Casteel.
Reply »
Just Another Joe Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 10:42 pm
Paul,
Your one sided hypocrisy and lack of attention to details comes out to show yet again.
Three years ago you and other members of the media were in lock step, a speaker going after members of their own party was uncalled for, no exceptions. Now we get exceptions, namely that it is ok if a member “messed in his (the Speaker) business”. Well, I remember McCall and Casteel messing in Craddick’s business. What’s different? The only difference I can see is that you now agree with the business of the Speaker.
The principle has to be resolute, Paul. It has to be something you believe in even when it is not at your advantage. No exceptions. You can’t be for something before you were against it. Kerry tried that. Didn’t work. People saw through it.
Speak of McCall and Casteel, I have a different understanding of Craddick “going after them”. Let’s start with McCall, who is dearly missed (Thank you, Van Taylor. Go find another office to run for). Craddick went to work on him so hard that would you believe that McCall didn’t have a primary opponent at any point during Craddick’s Speakership? Look it up, it’s true. He went unopposed in 04, 06 and 08. Now he did have a primary opponent in 2002 (right before Craddick took the throne), that he trounced, leading me to believe that Craddick was not an arm behind the challenge. Craddick backed opponents typically do better than 31 percent of the vote.
As for Casteel, she got on Leininger’s bad side, not Craddick’s. Craddick didn’t care about vouchers, at least not enough to start going after members himself. Now, I will give you that the Speakerly thing to do would have been for Craddick to tell Leininger to stand down. Had he done that, he might still be Speaker. But Craddick’s sin with Casteel was letting it happen, not making it happen.
So who did Craddick go after? Well, one name does come to mind. Pat Haggerty. I had the good fortune to spend two hours with the man once in a bar. I say good forture because the experience helped me to see the good in other lawmakers. The process is better that Pat Haggerty is gone.
And the process is better because there are still some people hanging around it who believe in principles, even when those principles are at their disadvantage. I encourage you to join the group.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 11:49 pm
Let us not forget that Craddick claimed to have absolute power–that the constitution made him an officer of the state, and the members who elected him could not remove him. That is why members “messed” with him and wanted him gone. It wasn’t his enemies who did Craddick in. It was his own committee chairs–Keffer, Fred Hill, Gattis, and the others who surrounded the back microphone on May 7, 2007 and started the revolution. They did it to save the House from dictatorship. Wayne Christian is just a nuisance. As I said in the writeup, I don’t know whether the district was deliberately drawn to eliminate Christian, or whether it was simply the most logical way to draw it. One way or another, Christian had overplayed his hand.
Anon says:
Since Chuck Hopson stole Nacogdoches from Wayne – by design, mind you, Wayne is toast. Nice knowing you.
Reply »
Just Another Joe Reply:
August 30th, 2011 at 9:09 am
I’m not here to defend Craddick, Paul. It was time for him to go. The purpose of my dialogue was to simply point out that under Craddick it was seen as not cool to go after your own party members, but now under Straus its cool in certain circumstances. I don’t like the back and forth and as long as you will continue to allow me, I’m going to call it out every time.
And you could argue (though, I personally wouldn’t) that anyone who stands against Straus is trying to save the House from a dictatorship. Not a Straus dictatorship, but a Solomons/Geren/Cook et al dictatorship.
Reply »
Hilarious says:
What are the chances that the Straus camp wants Paddie to replace Christian? I think it likely that a third candidate emerges if Straus is that involved. Paddie isn’t a moderate and he isn’t going to fit in well with the current cardinals’ view for getting things done.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 8:36 pm
I don’t know whether the Straus camp wants Paddie; they just want somebody different.
Reply »
WUSRPH says:
We can only hope that the analysis is correct.Of course, we thought the State was safe from Christian once before when he ran for Congress and LOST…but somehow his kind keep coming back….Maybe this time Paddie can finally put a political stake thru his heart.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Christian picked his beach house over the Texas House. At the end of the day it’s still the green tea that motivates his kind. See also: Perry, Peninsula.
Reply »
East Texan says:
I know Paddie well. I think he’ll be a strong conservative who can work well with others to get stuff done! Christian, who I also know, has alienated himself so bad that he can’t get anything done in the House. Iam just as Conservative as Christian, but you have to pick your battles. He has fought so many little fights that are of little importance. Because of this he can’t get anyhthing done on the small or BIG things. I’ll be casting my vote for Paddie. That seat may need a fresh face with much less political baggage.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
August 29th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Well said East Texan. Hopefully there are many more voters in the district with your perspective.
Reply »
Pat says:
I don’t know much about Straus personally–I’m a senate geek–but from what I’ve heard and read, his intentions are probably pretty transparent. I believe the demographic cards fell a certain way, and although Christian might have been saved, the leadership was not not sufficiently compelled to throw him a lifejacket.
Christian has started a lot of legislative fires. He deserves to go down in electoral flames (a metaphor, mind you, not a call for violence against public servants).
Reply »
longleaf says:
It bears repeating that these are very low information voters in this part of the state. The name “Christian” in and of itself makes this doofus the CLEAR favorite, especially in a GOPer primary, unless he is caught up in the scenario Edwin Edwards used to joke about–”in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.”
Reply »
Kenneth D. Franks says:
In Wayne’s defense, every one knows Wayne in the old district. Many either love him or hate him. I just disagree with him on many political issues and know him pretty well. There is no personal animosity between us. The legislature did a disservice to district 9, and East Texas, by creating a district that is 18 miles wide in one spot, about 14 miles from my home, and two hundred or more miles long. If I leave my home and go North on U.S Hy 96 I’m in another district in 12 miles. Going West on 83 from Pineland it is 3 miles, both are San Augustine County. South on 96 it is 7 miles out of the district (Jasper County). Taking San Augustine and Nacogdoches out looks like intentional gerrymandering by the Republican power brokers against one of their own members.
Reply »
East Texan says:
There are other Republicans looking at this race as well – don’t assume the field is settled.
Reply »
J Jesse says:
Population aside, Mayor Paddie will have a hard time convincing the voters of very conservative D9 that he can better represent their conservative beliefs than Christian.
Christian has always been rated as one of the most conservative State Reps throughout his years in office by Empower Texans, YCT, Eagle Forum and other outside groups. These groups & their allies will stick with a proven winner over an unknown.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Paul,
Do you think it’s ok for Straus’ team to work against Christian? Isn’t this in direct conflict with his campaign message to become Speaker, “I want all of the incubments to come back.” If his team is working against incubmbents, then he is working againt them. Afterall, it’s his leadership team.
Also, how many pledge cards did Straus collect? Why haven’t you asked that question?
Reply »