Time/CNN poll: Romney leading in four key early states:
From Time:
With less than three months before voting begins for the Republican presidential nomination, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is outpacing the GOP field in the first four primary states, according to a new CNN/TIME/ORC poll. Former pizza magnate Herman Cain is running second in each pivotal early battleground.
The implied narrative here is that Romney could run the table in the first four states and the race for the nomination could be over. This is unlikely to happen, because, as you will see from the poll results below, Romney’s leads in Iowa and South Carolina are precarious.
New Hampshire:
Romney 40
Cain 13
Paul 12
Huntsman 6
Gingrich 5
Perry 4
Bachmann 2
Santorum 1
Iowa
Romney 24
Cain 21
Paul 12
Gingrich 10
Perry 10
Bachmann 6
Santorum 2
Huntsman 1
South Carolina
Romney 25
Cain 23
Paul 12
Perry 11
Gingrich 8
Bachmann 4
Huntsman 1
Santorum 1
Florida
Romney 25
Cain 23
Paul 12
Perry 11
Gingrich 8
Bachmann 4
Huntsman 1
Santorum 1
John Johnson says:
What about a “precarious” lead makes Romney’s running the table “unlikely”? I could see using the word “unlikely” if he were running 2nd in a couple of states.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 6:06 am
Agree, John. Romney running the table is extremely likely at this point because there’s not a viable, attractive alternative. Perry & Gingrich are damaged goods & Cain isn’t serious. None of the others are even on the playing field anymore.
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Dave Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 8:09 am
Cain is close in Florida. The new agreement for Florida is winner take all, after the other three are small and proportional. If he gets money together, puts it all into Florida and wins the state, he jumps into the lead and could be a factor.
Not saying it is likely, but there is a path.
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anon-p Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 9:08 am
Dave> The new agreement for Florida is winner take all …
I don’t think that’s been confirmed yet by the RNC. If I read the preliminaries correctly, they lose half their delegation under such an arrangement anyway.
Dave Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 9:34 am
The RNC has signed off on the arrangement. Iowa gets 28 delgates, NH 12, SC 25 for a total of 65. Florida, after the haircut still gets 50, all of which go to the winner.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/stakes-are-getting-higher-for-florida-primary-now-that-winner-will-get-all-50-delegates/2011/10/24/gIQAPum5DM_story.html
Tx watcher says:
People who think Perry will bounce back make me laugh. He really should find an exit strategy now.
Maybe Dave Carney and Rob Johnson can get back onboard with Gingrich campaign!
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Robert Morrow Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 9:31 am
Maybe Carny and Johnson, the Perry inner circle, can get a job with the Jimmy McMillan “The Rent is Too Damn High” campaign… I Gingrich might be out of their league; they have blown up TWO presidential campaigns so far.
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WUSRPH Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
I understand “Joe the Plumber” is hiring. He may be their best chance after this messup.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 9:44 am
People like Jason Stanford, whose desparate attempts to prop up the Perry campaign, are a transparent attempt to create a market for his new book?
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The Mustache That Dare Not Speak Its Name says:
Rick Perry is just setting his trap. You’ll see, you’ll all see!
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John Johnson Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 7:53 am
Do your really think the rest of the country is as gullible as voters in Texas? Based on what you are seeing now, do you think that the national press is going to give Perry a walk like the Texas media has done in years past? He wouldn’t debate and would not give straight answers to questions when someone had a chance to ask. No one put any real pressure on him. Now that they are, he is going down quicker than Gary Hart did.
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Robert Morrow says:
Ron Paul is leading Rick Perry in all 4 of those early states. Maybe Ron Paul does not have a chance of being the Republican nominee, but Rick Perry has no chance of winning a general election.
And Perry trails in the primary a man (Ron Paul)who supposedly has no chance of winning the GOP nomination.
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Dave says:
All bets are off now! Terry Jones announces his candidacy!
http://www.standupamericanow.org/press-release/2011/10/press-release-dr-terry-jones-for-president
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Blue Dogs says:
I’m predicting Romney wins New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, Michigan, California and other western states to offset losses in the South: getting the GOP nomination.
Cain is DONE, this is all about Perry vs. Romney and I’ve been saying that for months: we’re likely having either a sitting governor or former governor being nominated.
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curious says:
Ron Paul is doing so well…will he stay there?
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