Taking it to the House (of Representatives)
I came across this intriguing scenario, without an author’s byline, on a web site called nextbigfuture.com. The writing isn’t very good but the premise is most interesting:
NBC/WSJ polled multiple hypothetical matchups between the candidates in the 2012 presidential general election. The head-to-head matchup between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney shows Obama leading Romney by a 6 percent margin with Obama garnering 49 percent of the vote to Romney’s 43 percent. NBC/WSJ also polled a matchup between three candidates, Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul as an Independent. The results are underwhelming for the supposed favorites – but for Ron Paul, this is an opening. Barack Obama easily wins again, but with only 44 percent of the vote compared to Romney’s 32 percent. However, Paul captures a whopping 18 percent.
Ron Paul could potentially capture enough Electoral votes to prevent both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney from reaching the 270 Electoral votes needed to become president. If this scenario plays out, the presidential election would be decided in the House of Representatives with the top three highest electoral vote getters being decided on who becomes president[as I said, the writing is terrible]. In 2012, the House will most likely still be Republican controlled, leaving Mitt Romney and Ron Paul vowing [vying--pb] for the highest office. With the growing number of tea party representatives in Congress, the election could look more similar to a European parliament vote, in building coalitions with many factions to support a prime minister.
* * * *
Intriguing, yes. Plausible, no. Readers will recall that Ross Perot ran for president in 1992, against George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton, and did not carry a single state. He got 18.9% of the vote, about what Ron Paul is projected to receive if he runs as an independent candidate. It would be a huge development if Paul were to carry a state. You can’t affect the electoral vote unless you carry a state, and I don’t think Paul can carry it off.
Gooder Writing says:
I like the way they write. They is gooder than them lamestreet media word writers.
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Bodhisattva Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 10:48 am
The correct sentence is “I like the way they writeS.”
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Anonymous says:
Wow…this was very interesting…..back to my readers digest…
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Anonymous says:
Wake me up if there’s a fire.
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Just another Joe says:
Ok…on to more important topics. How can we turn this completely unrelated post into being about Bonnie Bruce?
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anonymous says:
Neither Maine nor Nebraska follows the winner-takes-all electoral college model so it is not absolutely necessary that Paul “take” a state to throw the election to the house, but it would take a rare set of events to actualize this scenario.
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paulburka says:
Nebraska has five electoral votes. The second congressional district, which is mostly the city of Omaha and its environs, is a Democratic district that Obama won in 2008. Ron Paul is not likely to win it.
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Harry says:
Bleeding absurd….So in which state(s) is Ron Paul ahead? None? OK, waste of time, nothing to see here, move along.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
Does anybody know if Ron Paul is simultaneously running for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives (as he has done in past Presidential elections)?
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Alan Reply:
November 29th, 2011 at 10:28 pm
He is retiring from the House at the end of his current term.
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Reminder says:
Does anyone know what his eyebrows are going to do?
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Texian Politico Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 9:14 am
I don’t know about his eyebrows, but a group of doctors have said he needs to deal with his scoliosis before he ends up in a wheelchair.
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Robert Morrow says:
There was a whole lot of very dirty politics being played in the 1992. For one, on June 26, 1992 the Clintons sent goons – probably state troopers – to beat up and nearly kill a man named Gary Johnson who happened to the be neighbor of Gennifer Flowers and who also happened to have security camera videotapes of Bill often entering her condo. Gary Johnson ALSO happened to be the lawyer of anti-Clinton protagonist Larry Nichols. So the Clintons nearly murdered a man to put a lid on the Gennifer Flowers sex scandal.
Likewise, GHW Bush was very unhappy at the prospect of Ross Perot running. Perot had been given a high level security clearance by Reagan as Perot searched for missing US POWs from the Vietnam ear. What Perot came across instead was gargantuan CIA drug smuggling from the Golden Triangle heroin trade.
In June of 1992, Ross Perot was leading in a national poll with 37% and Bush and Clinton tied at 24%. So GHW Bush decided to try some intimidation on Ross Perot. Google “Chip Tatum Pegasus” and you will learn the real and ugly story of the under-politics of the 1992 campaign.
CIA counterintelligence agent and assassin Chip Tatum was tasked by Bush to intimidate Perot. Tatum turned in down; but the intimidation continued and Perot dropped out of the race on July 17, 1992.
I remember it very well because I was ready to vote for Perot in 1992 and I was stunned and angry that he would pull out of the race with such a *lame* excuse, talking about his daughter’s wedding, etc.
Perot was literally in fear for his life. Only later, after putting up his security, did he decide to get back in the race and even then it was to draw votes from Bush and make sure that Bill Clinton was elected over his hated enemy Bush.
Learn all about the secret history of the 1992 campaign at this link: http://whatreallyhappened.com/RANCHO/POLITICS/MENA/TATUM/tatum.html
The mainstream media is CIA controlled and they are loathe to go into the ugly reality of American politics. Just look at how they treat the JFK assassination, an obvious coup d’etat, even 48 years later.
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Texian Politico Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 9:17 am
Great story! Here’s the epilogue to that tale – Gary Johnson is now the former governor of NM and may run for president as the Libertarian nominee and the drug trade in the Golden Triangle of Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange has been reduced thanks to the good work of Ross Perot.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Gary Johnson would legalize drugs … not hypocritically use the government to run drugs to fund covert operations, while skimming of the top like a GHW Bush or Bill Clinton did or would do.
You need to read the 1998 Bo Gritz letter to GHW Bush. Gritz and Perot both discovered massive CIA drug smuggling from the Golden Triangle in the 1980′s.
The American official Richard Armitage was the point man for US drug smuggling according to drug warlord Khun Sa.
http://www.serendipity.li/cia/gritz1.htm
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Bodhisattva Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 10:52 am
Too bad “The X-Files” is off the air. You might land a screenwriting job.
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Crazy Uncle Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 1:11 pm
off your meds again.
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Pat Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
BurkaBlog is CIA-controlled.
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Texian Politico Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 3:49 pm
YES! And Paul Burka is part of the New World Order. He attends secret meetings every year at the Bohemian Grove where they tell him what to write about. WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!
Robert Morrow Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
The MSM media most certainly is CIA controlled. I am not referring to Burka Blog when I say.
Former CIA director William Colby had a famous quote: “The Central Intelligence Agency owns everyone of any significance in the major media.”
Allen Dulles in 1949 was president of the CFR. Another old intelligence hand John J. McCloy was chairman from 1953-1970.
Former CIA director GHW Bush, one of the dirtiest politicians we have even had in the USA, was a director of the CFR in the late 1970′s, just after Carter ran him out of the CIA spot.
The Council on Foreign Relations is has been tied at the hip with the CIA for 60 years. Anytime you see a commentator who is CFR, a huge red warning flag and siren should go off. I am not talking about Angelina Jolie or Rick Warren. The inner circle core of the CFR has been CIA and they use the CFR to push the party line.
And two BIG things they don’t like to talk about in a credible way are 1) the JFK assassination which was an LBJ-CIA murder and 2) the long bipartisan history of CIA drug smuggling. it is kind of like a family talking about incest over Thanksgiving dinner. Too embarrassing, too discrediting to the establishment, not their favorite topics.
http://mtracy9.tripod.com/cia_media.htm
Some of these posters on Burka blog … you really need to learn to think critically and consume some media that is not mommy CIA TV or paper. There is a whole new world out there.
Robert Morrow says:
So the lesson is, Ron Paul does not have to actually *win* a state to be a player in a general election, he could draw votes away from one candidate and cause certain swing states to flip to another.
I bet the candidate that Ron Paul would hurt the most is Romney or Gingrich, because all 3 are Republicans.
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Whoa Nellie! says:
Good ol’ Electoral College. Another reason why so few Americans vote, why voting in obvious Red or Blue states is seen as a waste of time, and why the two-party, non-choice system of Conservative Party or More Conservative Party can’t be challenged under the current system.
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Mollie says:
It’s a good posting. No one would have believed the plausibility of the 2000 election in Florida either. You can bet the GOP is thinking about it.
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Mr. Smith says:
Its a silly speculative article. To win even one electoral vote, Ron Paul or Gary Johnson would have to win a plurality in a state or an electoral district in those states that allow district awards for electoral votes. Unless there is a complete collapse by the Republican nominee, thats not going to happen. The interesting thing, however, is if Paul or Johnson leads the Libertarian Party, and there is a high level of dissatisfaction with the Republican nominee,could down ballot Libertarians pull more than their usual 2-3 percent? If they started pulling 5-7%, taking most of their votes from the Republican candidate, could they throw several fed and state legislative seats to Democrats that wouldn’t normally go their way. Again, unlikely, but something to think about.
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Iain says:
Opens the possibility that a Mike Bloomberg / perhaps Jon Huntsman independent ticket could make things interesting. That ticket could definitely pull New York (well, that’s looking less and less sure every further day Bloomberg is mayor of NYC) and a few Northeastern states (some combo of CT, RI, VT, NH, or ME) and depress Republican numbers in swing states enough to prevent either party from getting to 270. And then does the House go for Bloomberg or Romney?
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Blue Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 9:03 am
Bloomberg hurts Obama, not the Republican nominee.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Blue, Obama is probably having a heart attack reading this blog if Bloomberg jumps in the race (his ego is wearing thin in NYC).
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Col. Mike Kirby Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 1:41 pm
Bloomberg wouldn’t carry NYC in a presidential race.
Jerry Only Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
Bloomberg would be DOA due to his backing and defenses of wall st excess.
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longleaf says:
Bernanke is the real power, not the President. You don’t get to vote on him, peons. He and his interlocking directorate of central banks just announced a coordinated global “intervention” of “liquidity.”
Or “printin’ money” as Gov. Perry calls it. Your move, Goodhair. He just called your bluff.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
and a Perry “bluff” is what it was.
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AreYouKiddingMe says:
I just hope all those “just eligible to vote” 21 year-olds, remember to vote for Rick Perry on November 12, 2012…
And this guy has been governor of our State for how long??? A complete joke and it took a national election to point out what many of us have been saying for years. Shame on all you Republican sheep who will vote for anyone with an “R” in front of their name…
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José says:
The last third party candidate to actually win electoral votes was Wallace in 1968. He had only 13.5% of the popular vote but it was concentrated in the deep South and he won five states. Paul does not have any such regional concentration of support. What states could he conceivably win as a Libertarian? Alaska? Maine? New Hampshire?
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Jose, I read somewhere that Humphrey had the Democratic nomination in the bag in ’68 and would have been the nominee regardless if RFK had lived.
Second, Nixon was going to win the presidency that year regardless because folks were sick of LBJ after 6 years and wanted new blood.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 4:47 pm
LBJ, after he pulled out of the presidential race on 3/31/68, was secretly supporting Republican Nelson Rockefeller for president. Rockefeller was very deep CIA and I think the cover up of the JFK assassination was LBJ’s prime reason for doing so.
From Robert Dallek’s book Flawed Giant, pp. 544-545]
Lyndon Johnson’s deep alliance with CIA and Eastern Establishment
“Johnson’s choice as his successor was New York’s Republican Governor Nelson Rockefeller. The two men had a high regard for each other. Johnson saw Rockefeller as a sensible moderate who, in Lady Bird’s words, “was a good human being, a person who was for the disadvantaged, who was a man of compassion, with a capable and effective mind, and capable of being effective, getting things done.” He also believed that Rockefeller was the one man who could beat Bobby Kennedy, no small asset in Johnson’s mind.
Rockefeller reciprocated Johnson’s feelings. He saw the President as “a great statesman and great American patriot.” Rockefeller said later: “He was a tremendous guy.” They and their wives enjoyed a warm personal relationship. Nelson recalled how frank his wife Happy could be with Lyndon, telling him at the ranch not to drive so fast or drink too much. “She was successful in getting him to slow down, which I don’t think most people were.” …
Toward the end of April [1968], Johnson invited the Rockefellers to the White House for dinner, where he urged the governor to declare for the Republican nomination. “He was very friendly about ’68, and very supportive of me for ’68,” Rockefeller said. Johnson also told him he would never campaign against him. Happy Rockefeller remembered how during that evening Johnson urged Rockefeller to run. “He did want Nelson to be President,” she said. Johnson encouraged others to back Rockefeller as well. On April 7, after Irwin Miller, a prominent member of “Republicans for Johnson” in 1964 had asked whether the president would object to his chairing a Draft Rockefeller Committee, LBJ have Miller “a full speed go-ahead.”
Rockefeller did not need much prodding. On April 10, following a brief conversation with Johnson at New York’s St. Patrick’s Cathedral, where they attended Archbishop Terence Cooke’s installation, Rockefeller announced his “availability” for the Republican nomination. On April 30, after the White House evening, Rockefeller declared himself a candidate for the presidency.” [p. 545, A Flawed Giant, Robert Dallek]
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Pete Dakota says:
Speaking of the Gov’s voting-age gaffe, is he taking a lot of pain pills for his back? He doesn’t seem as focused or polished as in past campaigns.
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Blue Dogs says:
Burka, so if a 3rd party candidate ruins the GOP’s chances of winning the presidency, we can call Obama, “President 44 Percent”, which would mean 56 percent of Americans voted against him kinda like 2006 TX Gov race where Perry got 39 percent, while 61 percent went to his opponents.
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John Johnson says:
Forget the message that the undisclosed author generated. What most impressed me about this thread is your need. Pual, to critique the author’s “terrible” writing. Are you an English teacher or an information conveyor? Does the QB have to throw spirals to impress you, or will leading the league in TD’s do? Will a batting stance like Julio Franco’s or Kevin Youkilis’s bring out the poison pen, or will batting average keep the snide words in check? Shame on you for even mentioning what him said or how him said it.
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Bean Counter. says:
Leave it to Robert Morrow’s insanity to give me my morning chuckle.
Break out the lithium!
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Robert Morrow Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 10:54 pm
Well, Bean Counter, I see you have been consuming a lot of “blue pills” lately. That is my diagnosis. I think you need to go cold turkey on those blue pills of illusion.
You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.” -Morpheus , The Matrix
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arcJksDgCOU
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