Shuffling races in the Coastal Bend
The last couple of days has been very active for races in Nueces County. Instead of running against Connie Scott, with whom he is paired, Raoul Torres decided to move to Kleberg County and run against former Democratic representative Abel Herrero in District 34. But the local Republican establishment isn’t happy with Torres and has recruited a local justice of the peace, Amanda Torres, to oppose Raoul Torres in the new district. Herrero, though, would seem to have the upper hand, since Democrat Rick Noriega outpolled Republican John Cornyn in the 2008 U.S. Senate race. Still to be heard from is the Ortiz clan; former state rep Solomon Ortiz Jr., son of former congressman Solomon Sr. , is said to be contemplating challenging Connie Scott. Meanwhile, a report out of Corpus Christi is that Texans for Lawsuit Reform is contemplating a joint endorsement of Todd Hunter and Geannie Morrison, who are paired in District 32. I spoke with a contact at TLR who said that no decision has been made concerning an endorsement in that race. That TLR would have a dual endorsement of the chairman of Calendars and a back-bencher like Morrison would be a shocker.
Tagged: Abel Herrero, Amanda Torres, Connie Scott, john cornyn, Raoul Torres, rick noriega
Just Another Joe says:
When the Mostyn law firm gives you a 25,000 dollar contribution in May of 2010, then a joint endorsement is about the best you can expect to get (Hunter).
Were Hunter not chair of Calendars and just a rank and file member, I expect that TLR would be firm in Geanie’s corner.
You, Paul say this is a blow to Hunter, but I would argue the opposite since TLR seems willing to turn a blind eye to the King of all Trial Lawyer’s big…BIG contribution to Mr. Hunter.
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SanchoPanza says:
Hunter will be hunted. In the end he is very friendly to the TTLA group and one can expect a underground effort to get hunter out. His support is centralized on N. Padre island, the Victoria base is a harder group to fool. Island Tea party and Victoria tea party are two different animals.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
But then Hunter doesn’t have a Justin problem.
Maybe when the former TLR political director is now, ahem, how best to say it–Geannie Morrison’s Chief of Staff and very special friend,it causes TLR to put political wisdom out the window.
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paulburka Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Commenters who engage in innuendo about the private lives of public servants are violating the rules of this blog. Please refrain from such gratuitous remarks.
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Texas Ex says:
In District 32, Todd Hunter will crush Geannie Morrison. Morrison has got to be thinking of flipping to the congressional race where Blake Farenthold is probably the nation’s most vulnerable Republican congressional members at risk of losing to almost any primary challenge. In the emails released by the San Antonio redistricting court, Farenthold whined that he did not want to represent the people of Wharton County, and his new congressional district includes those voters who he tried to bargain away. Farenthold has become the Bruce Willis character from The Sixth Sense — everyone but him knows he’s already dead. Morrison beats Farenthold handily, but if she goes against Hunter, she loses badly.
In District 33, if Solly Ortiz Jr. runs, then he beats Connie Scott (who has already confided to loose-lipped friends in the district that she HATES the Legislature and only ran to appease her tort-reform-activist husband). The stories about her driving fast and fancy cars are the talk of Robstown, which is a pickup town and not a Lamborghini town. If Solly doesn’t run for District 33, it will only be because his father persuaded him to run for the “family’s” congressional seat (although there is another father-son team that sees this as THEIR “family” opportunity – expect an announcement from one of the two families very soon).
In District 34, Raoul Torres will beat Amanda Torres but then lose to Abel Herrero. Amanda Torres is one of those former middle-of-the-road Democrats that the Republicans lured over with promises of a bright future for Hispanic Republicans who would swear fealty to their new party. Amanda applies for every public job where she’s promised “her new party” will support her (for example, just LAST WEEK, she applied to be appointed to the County Court bench in Nueces County, but another candidate — David Stith — is already telling people he’s got that appointment in the bag because Amanda has been deemed too green to get the judicial appointment). While Amanda has been courting those appointment-granters within the Nueces County Republican Party, Raoul Torres has been courting the voters who show up at the Republican primary. Raoul beats Amada, but Herrero wins the general election against either Republican (regardless of who wins this race, kudos to the federal court for making this a clear minority opportunity district that Hispanic Republicans and Hispanic Democrats both see as a winnable opportunity for a Hispanic representative).
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Just Another Joe Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
I would be curious to know how you have reached the conclusion that Geanie would get crushed by Hunter. I see it more as a toss-up.
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sanchez Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 10:02 pm
You are an idiot and know nothing about corpus christi politics.
The federal court made it easier for republicans to win 33 and 34.
The republican primary voters know that raul torres is a bigger idiot than you are. Amanda will tear him up. Solomon beating Connie: thats a laugh. Shows how stupid you are.
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sanchez Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 10:05 pm
and its raul not raoul dumbass.
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Anonymous Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 11:13 am
Ya, I’d like to know about that. Paul, why did you misspell Rep. Torres’ name twice? I know you know how it’s spelled. Was this just a sign of disrepect toward him?
Texas Ex Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 12:20 am
@sanchez
You say “the federal court made it easier for republicans to win 33.” That’s true. There was no District 33 in South Texas under the Legislature’s scheme which violated the Voting Rights Act so “the federal court made it easier for republicans to win 33″ because that district wouldn’t exist in the absence of federal court intervention and so it would have been impossible for a Republican (or Democrat) to win it.
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Texas Ex says:
@Joe
I see Hunter as crushing Morrison for at least three reasons:
1. In the 2008 race, Todd Hunter beat incumbent Juan Garcia. Both candidates spent a FORTUNE identifying supporters and getting out the vote, and so Hunter’s campaign machine is in very good working order. Moreover, the very-high-Republican-turnout parts of Hunter’s old district are in the newly combined district. Geanie Morrison, on the other hand, hasn’t had a real opponent in over a decade and so her campaign machine will be very rusty.
2. Hunter has been one of the most successful fundraisers in Texas. Morrison, on the other hand, has never had to raise as much in the way of funds. The combined district encompasses several media markets, and it will be a very expensive (and quite labor intensive) district to win.
3. As Chairman of the Calendars Committee, Hunter is probably the second most powerful officeholder in the house (and after the Speaker, the Lt. Governor, and perhaps the Governor, it may be the fourth or fifth most influential position in the state). That is a lot of power to benefit the district (which Morrison cannot bring to the table) and it creates the opportunity for a lot of endorsements and power-broker supporters from outside the district to bring their weight to the table in the primary.
I don’t have any preference between the two candidates (I’m a Democrat, and I wouldn’t vote for either candidate even if I lived in that district but — still — I consider both candidates to fall within the Conservative Republican wing of the Republican party and not the Bat$3!+crazy Tea Party wing of the Republican party). Yet looking at the race fundamentals objectively, it seems to me like Hunter has got all the marbles.
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Just Another Joe Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
You raise some very good points but I am going to have to respectfully disagree. The population base is in Geanie’s old district and home county. Victoria adores her and I don’t see them as wanting to give the seat up to Corpus. Hunter used to be a Democrat, which can be used against him to a certain extent. He has also taken money from liberal trial lawyers, something else that can be used against him on a mail piece.
Yes, Hunter will outspend her. But Geanie has enough money in the bank (per her last campaign finance report) to make her presance known in the race. Hunter’s campaign finance reports also define the term “shady”. There’s plenty of ammo there to be used to bring his honor into question.
I think it will be a competitive race, a true toss up and a great one to watch.
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Texas Ex Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 6:28 pm
@Joe
I kinda like Geanie Morrison. I expect Hunter to win, but if she beats Hunter, it won’t cost me any sleep.
Frankly, I think Blake Farenthold is an embarrassment to the state so I wish either Morrison or Hunter would put us out of the misery of seeing that goofball appear in national television as the face and voice of Texas.
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Capitol Observer says:
Thank goodness texas ex fessed up and admitted he didn’t know diddly about the Coastal Bend even though he was willing to pontificate about everyone there.
1.) He was right about one thing, Todd Hunter does beat Geannie Morrison. Hunter can make inroads in Victoria and is extremely solid in the other three counties he currently represents. Plus more Republicans vote in those three counties than in Victoria.
2.) The Ortiz clan is still in trouble in Nueces County, and for SOli Jr. even the federal court couldn’t do him much of favor. Soli loses to Connie Scott in a tight race by about 4 to 5 percent. If he runs against Farenthold he gets the same whipping his poppa got in 2010. And as for Geannie Morrison running against Blake Farenthold give me a break. The Congressman has been working the northern part of his district and he’s done a good job since getting elected. The Dems may not like it, but Farenthold is there to stay. and finally,
4.) In District 34 it may be a tight GOP primary betweenn Torres and Torres, but Amanda Torres comes out the winner. Raul was just too weird in the legislative session and he joined Soli Jr. as furniture on TM’s list. Amanda is one of the exciting new Hispanic Republicans who have helped make Nueces a Republican county. She’s bright, she’s smart and she’s a dang good looker too (and that never hurts.) GOP primary to Amanda, general election to Amanda because even the Democrats in this district aren’t even close to agreeing with the pro abortion, ultra liberal views of Abel Herrero.
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Anonymous Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 11:18 am
I agree with most of your assesment, except the part about Raul being furniture. Torres had an ambitous agenda. He didn’t get much of it done, but he tried and for a freshmen, that wasn’t too bad. Burka clearly has something personal against Torres. Naming him furniture was very undeserved and now he intentionally misspells his name in this blog post. Very uncalled for.
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Texas Ex says:
@Capitol Observer
I missed where I “fessed up and admitted” I “didn’t know diddly about the Coastal Bend.” If you say I did, you must be right, but I don’t recall that.
In any event, I have spoken with several of the candidates in both parties who are contemplating running in the Coastal Bend, and I’ve seen a LOT of polling from the Coastal Bend, and I’ve crunched the numbers in Districts 13, 17, 25, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 43, 44, 45, 47, 53, 73, 74, 80, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, and 122 (as well as congressional districts 10, 15, 20, 21, 23, 25, 27, 28, 34, and 35).
Have you looked at the numbers?
I have looked at 12 years worth of returns, but I think the 2008 Cornyn-Noreiga race is the most instructive (you have a well respected, heavily entrenched non-minority incumbent against a comparatively underfunded but well liked if somewhat little known minority challenger in a statewide race during a presidential election year where neither candidate has a geographical tie to the Coastal Bend which would skew the results).
In District 32, Cornyn beat Noriega 65% to 32%, which is about a 10% improvement for Cornyn over his statewide performance (so I think this is NOT a minority opportunity district — I have many other data points to corroborate this conclusion, but this is one pretty good data point). But in District 33, Noriega beat Cornyn 52% to 46%, and Noriega outperformed his statewide numbers by 9% (so I would use this data and other data to conclude that District 33 is, indeed, a minority opportunity district). Likewise, in District 34, Noriega beat Cornyn 52% to 45%, and Noriega outperformed his statewide numbers by 9%.
Maybe I don’t know diddly about the Coastal Bend (I’ll leave that for others to judge), but I prepared to predict two “sure things” and one likelihood:
1. In an election where the race of the candidates is not an issue in the Republican primary, the more “establishment” Republican candidate wins the primary and and goes on to win the general election in District 32, and I think being the Chairman of the Calendars Committee qualifies Hunter as the more “establishment” Republican candidate. This is a sure thing.
2. In a general election where the Democrat is a Hispanic candidate and the Republican is a non-minority, in District 33 (where there was a 18% bump for Noriega as compared to his statewide totals), I like Solly Ortiz’s chances against Connie Scott. This, too, is a sure thing (this district was NOT created as a Connie Scott opportunity district).
3. In a Republican primary where an ex-Democrat who switched parties to get a political appointment, and then the appointee has applied (unsuccessfully) for several other political appointments before the paint has dried on her previous appointed office challenges a Republican incumbent, and race is not an issue (because both candidates are Hispanic), I’ll put my money on the incumbent. This is not a sure thing, but it looks like a pretty safe bet that Raoul Torres has the edge over party-switcher Amanda Torres in the primary. When Raoul Torres then squares off against Abel Herrero, the Cornyn-Noriega model goes out the window (because both candidates are Hispanic and the Cornyn-Noriega race is most useful for measuring minority opportunity), but if you look downballot in 2008 to the Texas Supreme Court races (where party identification is a much bigger factor), you see a 12%-14% advantage for the Democrats in District 34 (as contrasted with a 5%-9% disadvantage for Democrats statewide), then you see why I like Herrero’s chances over Torres (either Torres). This is also not a sure thing, but it seems likely that Herrero has a large advantage in the general election for District 34 where statewide Democratic candidates did about 20% better than than they performed elsewhere in the state.
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Anonymous says:
One should wonder what TLR is planning for Straus ( with Tim Dunn, of course) if they wont endorse his Calendars Chair. Anyone received any more phone calls from ET Research, for example?
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