Where Perry stands
As you can see, the task ahead for Perry is enormous. He is at 7% in Iowa and Florida, 4% in South Carolina, 2% in New Hampshire. Here are the main early-voting states ( in voting order):
IOWA
Gingrich 28
Paul 13
Romney 12
Bachmann 10
Perry 7
Santorum 3
Huntsman
- – -
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Romney 34
Gingrich 24
Paul 14
Huntsman 11
Cain 5
Perry 2
Bachmann 2
Santorum 1
- – -
SOUTH CAROLINA
Gingrich 38
Romney 15
Cain 13
Perry 7
Paul 4
Bachmann 3
Santorum 2
- – -
FLORIDA
Gingrich 41
Romney 17
Cain 13
Perry 7
Paul 4
Bachman 3
Huntsman/Santorum
- – -
CAVEAT: politicalwire.com notes that several of these polls are done by Insider Advangage, whose founder, Matt Towery ran Gingrich’s political operation in the 1990s. The New Hampshire poll is from Rasmussen.
Indi says:
He needs to pack it up and come on home to Texas…where the media and the voters seem to tolerate incompetence, corruption and stupidity in their statewide leaders.
Reply »
Tom says:
NO, I think everyone is better off all the way around keeping him in the race. Besides, he is entertaining.
Reply »
Whoa Nellie! says:
Gotta hand it to those New Hampshirites, they aren’t easily gulled. Maybe they’re the new Texans, they seem to have the independent spirit and practicality we like to brag about but rarely manifest.
Not that Romney is any great shakes (holding his nose).
Reply »
Anonymous says:
If I remember my history correctly, The Confederacy won the last battle of the Civil War at Palmetto Ranch, some few weeks after the surrender at Appomattox Courthouse. Maybe he can win the Texas Primary and claim victory when he comes home.
Reply »
harlow Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 4:02 pm
What are the odds that he will brag about that last battle in one of the NH coffee shop meet and greets??…That will surely getting back on the front page….go pop some more pop corn!
Reply »
Texas Ex says:
Florida and South Carolina polling doesn’t matter; by the time race gets down there, a third of the current field will have withdrawn and the remainder of the field will either be riding an Iowa or New Hampshire bump or nursing an Iowa or New Hampshire disappointment. The only thing we know for sure about the race in Florida and South Carolina is that the actual voting and immediate pre-election polling will not look anything like the current polling.
Likewise, New Hampshire polling has little meaning because its results will be so skewed by the intervening weeks and the intervening result in Iowa (although Perry’s situation in New Hampshire is so dire that he may as well write off that state — even if he could pull of a best-case-scenario second place finish in Iowa, which is perhaps a 1 in 20 chance at best, he still cannot win, place, or show in New Hampshire even with the benefit of an Iowa bump).
If you look at the Iowa polling, you can see that Cain is done (and will likely withdraw before the caucus in any event), Huntsman polls within the margin of error from zero because he essentially skipped the state, and Santorum all but moved to Iowa but the more the Iowans got to know Santorum the less they liked him. Those three are done (Cain and Santorum for good; Huntsman has put all his eggs in New Hampshire and so will survive his last place finish but he will not survive for long).
Romney is steadily falling in Iowa. He is currently at a six-month low despite increasing his presence in Iowa (maybe because he’s increasing his presence in Iowa[?]). Interestingly, Romney gained when Perry collapsed in Iowa, but Romney is not gaining from the Cain collapse. Looking at his trajectory, Romney seems to be headed toward a third place finish (although Bachmann or Perry could possibly push Romney to a disastrous fourth place finish in Iowa).
Paul his steadily increasing numbers in Iowa and his supporters are — by far — the most committed to their candidate according to their poll responses (this is very important because of the odd caucus rules and peculiar format — you need supporters who will not just show up but stay for HOURS and persuade supporters of non-viable candidates to join their caucus). Paul also has one of the best campaign infrastructures and get-out-the-vote machines. If you follow his polling trajectory, you would expect a second place finish, but the polls might very well be underestimating Paul’s support. A Paul win in Iowa is a real possibility as the campaign season’s first major upset.
Perry and Bachmann are the middle tier candidates — both hovering well above Huntsman-Santorum polling territory but both long past their past glory moment when they each occupied the swell that Gingrich now occupies. The Christian Conservatives who handed the last caucus to Mike Huckabee and who more recently rallied to expel the state supreme court justices who had supported equal marriage rights, hates Mormon Romney, Adulterous Gingrich, and Separation-of-Church-and-State Paul. Who will they support? If they split between Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann, their voice is too divided to matter. If they solidify behind Bachmann or Perry, they could push either candidate up to third place or — possibly if the stars and moon align — into second place. This is Perry’s only hope: win the Christian vote in Iowa and take that momentum from a better-than-expected finish straight into South Carolina.
Finally, there’s Gingrich. He’s at the top of the polls now, but if he is a bubble candidate, then he peaked too soon. Bachmann’s bubble lasted about 5 weeks, Perry’s lasted about 7 weeks, and Cain’s lasted about 6 weeks. Gingrich’s bubble began to inflate about 8 weeks before the caucus. If it is a bubble and not a movement, it seems likely that his bubble will be bursting in the week or two before the caucus, and he will be on his steep downward trajectory at the worst moment. If Gingrich is the real deal, and so we just track his current polling as an upward trend, then he’s on target to win. If — on the other hand — he’s on a Not-Romney-of-the-Month bubble, then he could fall as low as fourth by caucus day. My bet is that Gingrich is at least 80 percent bubble and at most 20 percent real deal.
I think you will read headlines on the day after the caucus talking about (1) the Paul upset, (2) how the Romney disappointment and resulting campaign spin about beating “low expectations” may affect his ever-narrowing lead in New Hampshire, (3) the Gingrich collapse, and (4) the surprising comeback of ….
Will the Christian Conservatives in Iowa fill in the blank with Bachmann’s name or Perry’s (or will they divide into three camps and kill the whole comeback story)?
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 9:56 pm
that is some damn good analysis. Key point GOP primary is extremely volatile almost like throwing darts.
A Ron Paul win in Iowa is a very real possibility.
Reply »
Kenneth D. Franks Reply:
December 2nd, 2011 at 8:56 am
Nothing else to add to what Texas Ex wrote. The nail has been hammered already.
Reply »
Texas Ex Reply:
December 3rd, 2011 at 8:32 pm
Tonight’s Des Moines Register poll seems to agree. Gingrich on top, Paul in second, Romney falling to third, Cain out of the race (just ahead of the Iowa caucus voters tossing him out), and three way Perry-Bachmann-Santorum fight for third.
Of those three – Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum – it is awfully hard to see how anyone but Perry has a pathway that could even potentially keep them in the campaign through the Florida primary (and Perry’s pathway is as narrow as Dan Patrick’s world view). If tonight’s poll results are any indication, the Iowan Christian Coalition may be coalescing around Bachmann (although her statistically insignificant 2% lead over Perry is well within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error) in that this in one of several recent polls that show her very slightly ahead of Perry.
Willie James says:
Come home, Rick. Retire. Go to Texas A&M and screw it up even more that you did the last few years. Relive your glory days rilin’ up Old Army a-grabbin your package in your coveralls. Like a lot of under educated southern boys you took off to see the bright lights and things were cruel to you. Welcome back.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 4:34 pm
He won’t come back until God or Anita tell him to.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 1:11 pm
Willie James, Perry will finish out his 3rd full term as governor and leave on January 20, 2015 when his term ends.
Reply »
anita says:
Where does Perry stand?
Far worse then where he did when he entered the race. He’ll limp back to Texas, with little to no political capital remaining. Sure, he’ll have all of his appointees, so an opportunity for continued graft, but his days are numbered. You can already see this with the second-tier now fighting amongst themselves for the spoils. Staples, Abbott, Combs, Patterson all with knives drawn (gun for Patterson).
The ground has shifted below his feet. He blew a tremendous opportunity that only comes once in a lifetime. Maybe he can ponder this next to the pool in his rental mansion.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Anita, Patterson’s odds of being Lieutenant Governor in 2014 are FINISHED after his stunt with the Confederate license plates and the backlash from many African American politicos in the state.
Perry IS done as well, he’ll have his appointees to brag out, but he’s retiring for good in 2014 (see Clements in 1990 when folks got sick of him and Connally in 1968 among others).
Reply »
Another Wilco Voter Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 3:00 pm
I have to agree completely with anita. Perry has no political chits left. Proof? Check out the article in Vanity Fair, http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/01/rick-perry-201201. Mr Burka and Bill Miller, among others, are quoted prominently and the quotes are not very flattering to Mr. Perry.
When, within recent memory, have this many people who so needed to stay on Perry’s good side been so willing to skewer the man. To me, this says, they are no longer afraid of him or his henchman. His reputation as a “vindictive SOB” no longer scares people.
Reply »
WUSRPH says:
Would it be “wrong” if a bunch of us crossed over to the Texas GOP Primary just to vote AGAINST Rick (and maybe Cruz in the Senate race, too)? There apparently will not be much to vote on in the Democratic Primary anyway.
Reply »
Dave Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Statewide elections are no mystery for at least the next few cycles. The GOP primary is the general election. Might as well vote for the most palatable choice.
Reply »
l Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 9:06 pm
if you vote against Cruz, who would you vote FOR?
surely not the dew
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 12:02 am
I respect Cruz as a lawyer, but not as a politician. That he believes it is more important for Republican voters to elect a Senate of hardline conservatives than to elect a Senate majority comprised of people of varied views is a perfect example of what is wrong with American politics. Both parties are obsessed with idelogical purity, which guarantees perpetual gridlock. It is crazy to prefer a party that is locked into litmus tests and ideological rigidity as opposed to one that is committed to winning a majority so that it can govern. So, given a choice of who to vote for in this hypothetical situation, I’d vote for Dewhurst.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 8:48 am
Gridlock is good. Whenever the Texas legislature is in session or the US Congress is in session, your rights, liberty and wallet are in danger from people “passing things.” We should not want Congress to “pass things” or try to “fix things” because they have PROVEN they can’t “fix things” when they “pass things.”
Ideally, it should be Obama as President with the Republicans controlling both branches of Congress.
Actually, “ideally” would be a 100 Libertarians up there doing basically nothing, but if we can’t have that it is best to have Congress hamstrung.
“Hamstrung” meaning tied up and chopped up like a piece of ham meat.
John Johnson says:
Texas Ex is way off base. Any far right candidate will not garner enough indie or Blue Dog votes to win. The ultra right crowd is not large enough to get’er done. This is the bottomline.
Newt is going to work on the middle ground folks. He made his first shot at doing so during the last debate. He is smarter than the rest, and I expect him to eat his opponents up in future debates as the field narrows. It is hard to imagine, but start looking at him as the next Repub candidate.
As far as King Perry goes, why is he still in the discussion here? He has shot himself in the foot so many times, I want to know what is holding him up? Oh yeah….money. Don’t you know that they wish they had it back.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 8:50 am
Perry shot himself in the foot … in the groin … in the ass … in the arm … in the head. Amazingly, multiple self inflicted head wounds! Something you never see in suicides. Even I am stunned by this turn of events; I did not see it when the burning bush talked to me.
Reply »
longleaf Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 11:47 am
This kind of suicide occurs quite a bit to people cross the CIA. Remember the San Jose Mercury= News reporter who suddenly got “depressed” and supposedly shot himself TWICE in the head over having exposed the CIA’s drug dealing?
http://www.rense.com/general69/webb1.htm
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Gary Webb of San Jose Mercury News – American hero- expose CIA/Nicaraguan drug dealings. Made famous “Freeway” Ricky Ross.
Anonymous says:
I am proud to say I had it right months ago – Gingrich will be the nominee. Quite frankly, it is going to take some time to get used to his style but he will work out just fine. He is the next POTUS. He needs to lose some weight.
Reply »
longleaf Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 11:48 am
No, he doesn’t. All he has to do is pick Chris Christie as running mate. From that point on, he’ll be referred to as “the skinny one” on the ticket.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Anon, if Gingrich is the nominee, Obama will kick his butt by 20 points in November 2012.
Reply »
Jed Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 1:14 pm
wish i hadn’t been laughing at intrade when he was a nickle (and i thought he was overpriced). had i bought in then, i could and would sell those options to you now, anny.
Reply »
William Ward says:
It seems like the only time Rick isn’t shooting himself in the foot is when he pauses to reload. And with Newt soaring in the polls, the one guy who looks even dumber than RP right now is Dave Carney. It is as if he jumped ship in the middle of the ocean in order to hitch a ride on the Titanic. Oops.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
November 30th, 2011 at 9:57 pm
Oops. These are people who think MONEY runs everything …too bad their client is mentally retarded.
Reply »
rw says:
It looks like the task for everyone except Newt is enormous. Cain isn’t even on the list in Iowa. Romney is getting hammered in every state but one. I don’t know that I’ve seen a race this wild.
Reply »
retrocon says:
There’s one thing that Texas Ex keeps mentioning — the Iowa Christian vote, with a decided understanding that they will not support Romney. What happened in the 2008 campaign? Remember how Huckabee played Iowa with his overt “I’m the Christian” candidacy?
Well, the religion card is being played again, big time. Not just Rev. Jeffress but evangelical leaders in Iowa who denigrate Romney, then invite candidates to a faith forum and snipe at Romney when he doesn’t show up.
see: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/69182.html
It’s really too bad when religious bigotry plays such a big role for some when it comes to choosing our president.
Reply »
JohnBernardBooks says:
Well we know who the democrats want, now if the State run Media could just figure out who the republicans want. I know, lets have an election then we’ll know.
Reply »
Charlie Adaway says:
I stayed up drinkin’ till 4:59 am just so I could write my daily dumbass tripe on Burka Blog….
Reply »
Boone says:
He had the late shift at Jack in the Box.
Reply »
AreYouKiddingMe says:
Perry stands exactly where many of us have been saying he stands for years. He is a buffoon. He is not very smart and he rode GW’s coattails to the Capitol building, and because he had an “R” in front of his name on the ballot, the Republican sheep keep voting for him. Once he was exposed in a national election, where he actually has to speak and debate, he has shown in 6 months what Texas couldn’t figure out in 10 years. He is an embarrassment to our State, and everyone who has ever voted for him should be ashamed. That is where Perry stands… And right now, he is not even making news, except when he make yet another idiotic statement, affirming everything I wrote above…
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 10:16 am
thats basically it in a nutshell…I will cut and paste your remarks and keep copies in my wallet – hand this out if Perry’s name ever comes up again.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 1:15 pm
You mean 11 years as governor and in 3 and a half weeks, it’s gonna be the 11th anniversary of his anscension to the Texas Governor’s Mansion on December 21st of this month.
Reply »
Calculatin Coke says:
Bachmann wins Iowa caucuses, just like she did Iowa straw poll.
Reply »
JohnBernardBooks says:
Now that democrats are well on their way to becoming irrevelant they’re obsessed with needing to pick the republican candidate so that Obama doesn’t lose too badly in 2012.
Reagan got over 90% of the elctoral vote in 1980, it’s deja vu.
Reply »
Col. Mike Kirby Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 11:50 am
More brilliant babbling from cult boy.
Democrats are so powerful they can pick the republican candiate to ensure an Obama reelection.
Democrats are so irrevelant they need to pick the republican candidate to ensure Obama doesn’t lose.
Just stfu. you add nothing to any thread you post to.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 1:15 pm
John Bernard, Reagan only won 50-41 over Carter-just 9 points. It should have been 57-39 maybe.
Reply »
Texas Ex says:
Wouldn’t it be funny if “candidate” went on a book tour and accidentally won the Republican nomination?
If this sitcom is not already in development, it should be.
Newt is ONLY NOW opening an Iowa campaign office! Newt’s campaign DID NOT EVEN resister as a candidate for the Missouri primary! When 90% of Newt’s staff quit in June (which is when they got the idea that he was on a book tour and not really running for president), Newt DID NOT RE-HIRE A CAMPAIGN STAFF.
These are all clear signs that Newt was running for reasons other than to become the Republican nominee for president.
If he gets nominated, wouldn’t that be a hoot!
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 12:16 pm
you have to be kidding…can anyone verify “Texas Ex”‘s info? If Newt is not on the Missouri ballot – then he can possible win the nomination.
Reply »
elprofe Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 12:52 pm
According to a story in the Nov. 22, 2011 LA Times, Gingrich had not filed and the filing deadline is passed. However, the Missouri primary is a “beauty contest” with no delegates at stake.
Reply »
Col. Mike Kirby Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 12:30 pm
Newtie is just like Sarah, it’s all about the grift. And the republican rubes just lap it up with a spoon.
Reply »
John Johnson Reply:
December 5th, 2011 at 7:55 am
What motivated the Obama “machine”? Altruism?
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 12:32 pm
It would be a hoot. And Gingrich would be slaughtered in the general election. That would be a hoot, too.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 4:10 pm
You under-estimate Gingrich. He was 3rd inline for the job at one time – he knows how to operate. He actually reminds me of Reagan when he was running against Carter – but with a little more experience behind him. People were concerned about Reagan and his marital past – I remember it well. Callista is a character. They will need to emphasize her Catholicism over and again. When you look at her you can’t think Tiffany but rather the pope.
Reply »
Texas Ex Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 6:03 pm
@4:10 anonymous
I hope you are right (in fact, I already know that you are partly right — I know that the next time I see the current Mrs. Gingrich and her stiff, whitish mitre of freeze-dried hair, I will think of the Pope instead of Tiffany or Austin Powers’ Fembots or the previous Mrs. Gingriches).
But, mostly, I really hope you are right about Gingrich.
At night, just before I go to sleep, I kneel down beside by bed. I bow my head, close my eyes, clasp my hands and pray, “Dear God, I know that Sen. Patrick and I do not agree on much, and I know Sen. Patrick is probably better at praying than I am, but I humbly ask You to grant me one prayer that will make both me and Sen. Patrick very, very happy. Please, God, please let it be a Gingrich-Palin ticket! If this is asking too much, I would settle for a Gingrich-Bachmann or a Gingrich-Santorum ticket, but I know that a Gingrich-Palin ticket would mean so much to Sen. Patrick that I ask for this one prayer — not so much for myself (although it would make my heart sing) but for Sen. Patrick. Please, God, let’s do this one for Sen. Patrick.”
JohnBernardBooks says:
How funny Obama is so bad democrats have to chime in on the republican primary in order to feel revelant. Here’s the deal democrats if we need you we’ll call.
Reply »
Boone Reply:
December 2nd, 2011 at 9:11 am
JBB, another excellent, insightful post. What logic. Intelligence. Brilliance. Your ability to add to the discussin thread is ….well….awesome.
Reply »
Vicente Lozano says:
Where Perry stands–the only place he will stand–is in the kitchenette of a posh conservative think tank near Santa Fe, cracking amiable jokes while waiting for the Orville Reddenbacher to finish popping, or behind the lectern at some event in Branson Mo. earning a speaking fee. He’s simply finishing out the prom, in hopes of being asked to dance at one of these two places.
Reply »
Robert Morrow says:
Here is Rick Perry’s “Oops” ad where he pokes fun at himself. I guess they have a pile of money so why not spend it enriching his campaign consultants and ad makers.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/rick-perry-turns-oops-moment-into-iowa-tv-ad/
I am in more of a more to kick Newt Gingrich than I am Rick Perry at the moment. My sugar high over his demise wore off weeks ago and now I can focus on more important things like Cheetos and internet porn.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
December 1st, 2011 at 8:22 pm
Marcus Luttrell turns to Rick Perry for “fatherly advice” and day to day things… and considers him an honorable man blah blah blah
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssbSECuuN3s
Oh, brother … I think (but am not sure) that Marcus gave me a call one Saturday morning and quizzed me on Rick and his extracurricular activities. I gave him the gory details from what I know (the tip of the iceberg). He said his name was Marcus Henderson — I could hear a baby crying in the background. I think it was Luttrell himself, having a hard time believing his father figure hero was such a skank daddy.
That’s it Rick & Anita, go ahead and use a SEAL who nearly got killed in Afghanistan for political gain. Next ad up – from Anita talking about what a great family guy Rick has been for 30 years.
I am ready to barf now.
Reply »
Reminder Reply:
December 2nd, 2011 at 12:21 am
Marcus is a true American hero. Read his book “Lone Survivor”. It is the real deal. Very sad, but once you read it, you will think twice about the comments that are made here.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
December 2nd, 2011 at 10:43 pm
Marcus Luttrell has his political endorsements and opinions and I have mine. He also had someone write a crummy book for him. Go read the one-star reviews at Amazon; you will learn a lot.
Just another example of Republicans trying to use “war victims” also known as “war heros” for political gain.
Lutrell’s book is jingoistic garbage. No wonder he thinks highly of Perry. From a negative review:
“I am an active duty member of the Army, and I am a special operations soldier, so I feel that maybe, just maybe I have a tiny bit of credibility when I talk about things of this nature. I felt this book was pure trash, I would read passages out loud to my team mates and we would all laugh. Mind you, it breaks my heart to hear about Americans dying, I’m not talking about that. What I am talking about is this guy’s apparent blame that liberals killed his friends. I was in aw that the officer in charge even suggested killing those goat herders! That IS MURDER! Not because liberals have tied our hands with useless rules, but because they were unarmed civilians! He would have been (and should have been) tried as a murderer, because that’s what he would have been. No officer in his right mind would give that command, and most soldiers would recognize that as not being a lawful order. There are about 10 different ways to handle that situation. They made a mistake…that’s how it goes sometimes. I’m not even going to get into the absurdity of putting it to a vote; I have no idea when the military became a democracy.
I have been privy to some other issues involving this operation, and it is general opinion that these guys really messed up big time.
I hated this book, it gives special ops a bad name, and I don’t suggest it to anyone, god forbid some civilian actually believe the authors load of nonsense.
So go ahead, now post your silly little comments about how un-American I am, or whatever. I’m not impressed, especially if you have never done anything for your country besides keep the T.V. and couch industries in business. I have been serving for quite a while now, and I am confident that my patriotism is in tact. A goat rope operation is a goat rope operation, and poor planning will always produce poor results. And a garbage book is a garbage book.”
Anonymous says:
Tonight Show …… Really? Seriously?
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Newt is the only candidate that can stand toe to toe in a debate with O!!!
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
December 2nd, 2011 at 6:49 am
Newt’s surge in the polls is the highest yet by any candidate – including Romney and Perry. He is the nominee.
Reply »
Texas Ex Reply:
December 2nd, 2011 at 9:43 am
Perry was polling higher in mid-September than Gingrich is currently polling.
If Gingrich beats Romney in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, and keeps it close in New Hampshire, this will probably be a very long primary.
Looking at the current polling numbers, the top three finishers in the first four contests ought to be Paul, Gingrich, and Romney unless
(1) the Christian Conservative vote in Iowa consolidates behind Bachmann or Perry and resurrects one of those campaigns or
(2) Paul, Gingrich, or Romney implodes (Gingrich has all the ingredients ready to make a huge implosion pie but he’s being cut an awful lot of slack by the primary voters who do not want to settle for Romney).
If these three win, place, and show in Iowa and New Hampshire, the field will narrow dramatically, and if Paul, Gingrich, and Romney repeat as first, second, and third in South Carolina and Florida, then any remaining stragglers will drop out.
That would be an interesting three-way race that could potentially last until the convention (if Gingrich’s revived campaign doesn’t self-destruct — Romney has enough funds and Paul has enough infrastructure to weather a mid-sized disaster, but Gingrich has two strikes and insufficient funds or organization to right himself if he capsizes again).
I want a long primary season filled with comparative ads and spirited debates — this is at the top of my Christmas wishlist.
Reply »
Tom says:
The Newt-Christie Campaign Slogan: “We will wiegh in and get rid of the fat in government”
The Newt-Palin Campaign Slogan: “On average, we’re as smart as the average GOP voter.”
The Newt-Cain Campaign Slogan: “Sticking pizzas where they don’t belong is just the first step in thinking outside the box.”
The Newt-Perry Campaign Slogan: “There are three reasons we’re going to win and both of them are guaranteed.”
Reply »
Texas Ex says:
Here is an interesting quote today from Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (a short-lister for VP no matter who wins the nomination):
“I think people make the mistake of writing off Rick Perry and believe he can’t come back. He’s got a mountain to get over, but I don’t think it’s impossible. Both Newt and Romney have a lot of support, but I don’t think it’s a two-man race. I think Perry could get back in it with Gingrich and Romney.”
Reply »