Can Perry win reelection?
A new poll from Public Policy Polling, a well known firm that is aligned with the Democratic party nationally, calls into question Perry’s standing with Texas Republican voters:
In a PPP poll taken in September, the month in which Perry announced his candidacy for president, Perry led Romney by 49% to 10%. Here are the current numbers, according to PPP:
Romney 24%
Gingrich 23%
Perry 18%
Santorum 15%
Ron Paul 12%
* * * *
Is Perry’s presidential candidacy positive or negative for Texas’s image among Republican voters?
Positive 13%
Negative 39%
Perry vs. Romney, Texas presidential primary
Perry 46%
Romney 45%
(Previous poll: Perry 72%, Romney 18%)
Santorum is the only candidate who defeats Romney in Texas (45%-42%)
* * * *
These are terrible numbers for Perry. He faces the potential embarrassment of losing the Texas presidential primary to Romney and perhaps not even finishing second. He will have to evaluate whether he is a viable candidate for reelection. I think the answer is no. He is damaged goods, and the more he prolongs the fiction that he belongs on the debate stage with the other Republican aspirants, the more damaged he will be.
Perry’s presidential campaign has left him vulnerable to defeat should he choose to seek a fourth term as governor in 2014. Republicans have to worry that he might even lose to a Democrat (Paul Hobby comes to mind, or John Sharp.) The numbers indicate that his stature in Texas has seriously eroded to the point that, if he decides to run for reelection, he cannot be sure of victory. Donors who contributed to his presidential race may think twice before throwing good money after bad.
The long-term significance of these numbers is that Perry’s poor performance on the campaign trail has destabilized Texas politics. Politicians understand the meaning of these numbers. It means that the aura of invinicibility that has surrounded Perry during the past ten years is gone. It means that the fear Perry has been able to generate has greatly diminished, if not altogether evaporated. It means that if Perry does run for reelection in 2014 and is victorious, he will face serious pushback from veteran legislators.
Perry’s term as governor expires in January, 2015. He can continue in office until then, but the end of the long Perry governorship is in sight.
linda says:
“…end of the long perry governorship is in sight.. We can only hope.
Reply »
garvin Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:36 am
Didn’t Perry just put Sharp in a cush job at Texas A&M to keep im out of politics?
Reply »
Jurassic Park says:
Stay on top of this one Paul, cutting edge commentary.
Reply »
vietvet3 says:
Don’t let the door hit you, MOFO…
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
January 17th, 2012 at 6:36 pm
“like”
Reply »
Robert Morrow says:
Pension double dipper Rick Perry has fatally wounded himself with his so-called presidential campaign, the worst one ever according to James Carville. The wizard behind the curtain has been exposed to be … quite lacking.
Those poll numbers are legit, even if it was a Demo robo-call poll. Those are the precisely numbers you would expect a guy to get who got 1% in New Hampshire and is at 5% in South Carolina. What did Perry get in Iowa? I forgot; he’s just not that relevant anymore.
I think the decision was made a long time ago that he was not going to run in 2014. And in the 2013 legislative session, Perry is not going to be much of a factor. Let’s just hope he vetoes everything in sight.
What’s next for Perry. I like the previous suggestion of “historian” at David Weekley Homes.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:19 am
Morrow, Perry’s 3rd full term ends on January 20, 2015: Texas Governors and Lieutenant Governors are both sworn-in on the 3rd Tuesday every 4 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governors_of_Texas
On 2014, I agree with you that Anita told Rick NOT to run for a 4th term last summer.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
The powers that be have already made it clear who they are backing for Governor in 2014. It ain’t Perry. Look at today’s ethics reports.
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
January 17th, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Surely, after the whole redistricting mess, Greg Abbot no longer remains a viable candidate for Governor in 2014.
Reply »
More Perry? Reply:
January 17th, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Has Abbott now received SCOTUS FaceTime, youd be right. But he got the issue further than most of us thought, saving face.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:21 am
Distinguished, when I watched Perry’s 2010 victory speech, his wife, Anita’s body language was like “Rick, this better be your last term as governor.”
I mean at some point, Perry has to start grooming a successor (see the Green Bay Packers situation between Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers).
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Rick Perry *groom* a successor? That would be like Captain Francesco Schettino picking an understudy to pilot a ship.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/01/18/bloomberg_articlesLXYPWE07SXKX01-LXZRD.DTL
Watchems says:
Oh. God. Please.
Make it end.
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman says:
I pray that if Perry does seek another term as Governor in 2014, that some strong GOP opponent kicks Perry’s behind in the Republican Primary.
In addition to term limits, the 83rd Legislature should propose an amendment to the Texas Constitution greatly curtailing gubernatorial pardon authority.
Otherwise, in January 2015, on his final day in office, Perry will follow the horrible example of departing Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour in pardoning over 200 serious criminals–including murderers and rapists.
Reply »
anon-p Reply:
January 17th, 2012 at 7:10 pm
D.Gentleman> Otherwise, in January 2015, on his final day in office, Perry will follow the horrible example of departing Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour in pardoning over 200 serious criminals–including murderers and rapists.
The Executive in Texas already has constitutionally limited powers of clemency and can only pardon what is recommended to him by a majority of the Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles, if I recall correctly.
It seems unlikely a Haley Barbour snafu would happen here at the end of a term of either a Democratic or Republican governor.
I can’t imagine more restrictions on pardons than Texas already has without completely removing the ability entirely.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
January 17th, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Yep.
Reply »
Blue Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 8:26 am
i don’t think people who like term limits have completely thought through that position. All it will do is empower the unelected bureaucracy.
Blue Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 8:26 am
And note that I am an unelected bureaucrat.
Reply »
Crazy Uncle Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
The number one problem with government at all levels is the explosion of the size and power of their bureaucracy. The only solution is to cut budgets.
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:26 am
Distinguished, the GOPers in the Texas Legislature will NEVER put term limits into the equation ever.
I do NOT see that happening: look at states such as Iowa, Washington State, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, NY State, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Idaho, Utah and Illinois do NOT have term limits in these states.
Texas will never have term limits.
Reply »
Dave says:
“Among voters who say Southern Methodist is their favorite school, SMU alumnus and former player Craig James trails Dewhurst, Cruz, Joe Agris, and Tom Leppert.”
Reply »
red raider graduate Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 8:13 am
Can’t wait to read what voters whose favorite school is Texas Tech think of candidate greased palm Craig James.
Reply »
Julie says:
Can Perry win another term as Texas’ governor? No, he can’t.
But give Perry and his wife some alone time after he gives up his presidential aspirations and he may well conclude that running for governor once again is a must for him — because God is calling him to run.
God doesn’t take sides in political races, so any voice that the Perrys may hear is their own ego, not God’s.
Reply »
Honey Badger Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:16 am
If God for some reason wants a specific person in a specific political office, he certainly would have more powerful means at his disposal than being limited by folks counting ballots in a box (or e-slate).
Reply »
garvin Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
I think the voices Rick Perry hears in his head are merely echos in an empty space….
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Governor Perry’s in-state decline in polling numbers (even if it’s a Democrat poll) prove again the political axiom, that given enough time, your friends will hurt you worse than your enemies…
Reply »
Mollie says:
He keeps saying Turkey, a country which has been considered for membership in the European Community and is a major US ally, is under control of Muslim terrorist. Someone put this man out of his misery.
Reply »
longleaf Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 5:01 am
Piss on you. Perry is exactly right and it’s attitudes such as yours that are a treasonous impediment to our winning the war on terror.
There are approximately 1.5 billion Muslims left in the world (the number is hard to pin down precisely because they are reproducing like rabbits) and 99.9 percent of them haven’t been “liberated to go see Allah” yet by our “freedom drones” and the like.
You cannot mollify (or “Mollie”fy) a Muslim. As the vast majority of them will not come to Jesus, in most cases the only good Muslim is a dead Muslim. This is clear teaching from Southern Baptist pulpits all over Texas and the South. Let God sort them “Turkeys” out.
Reply »
Tom Barry Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 8:57 am
Paul, surely the comment above about Muslims exceeds the rules.
Reply »
garvin Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:18 am
Wow, another conservative right winger speaks his wisdom from his basement after the night shift. This is the sort of ignorant rhetoric that the right uses among themselves?
Dave Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:13 am
Given Mr. Leaf’s prior commentary, I read this as snark rather than serious, but I could be wrong.
longleaf Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 12:00 pm
You are CORRECT, Dave. And no need for the Mr. Leaf formality.
The fact that ANYONE thought I was serious is a commentary in itself.
Vernon Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:33 am
And just what exactly constitutes “winning the war on terror”?
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 8:04 pm
I longleaf I want to stop the endless, bankrupting wars. We have our Christian/Jewish neocon jihadists and they are as dangerous as Al Queda.
Reply »
WUSRPH Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Hey, guys, don’t jump all over longleaf he was obviously funnin! The horrible thought is that many out there actually agree with that crap.
Reply »
Franklin D. Roostervelt says:
If we think about it, it’s clear that what our state government wants (which is pretty much what the least scrupulous corporate interests seek) is getting ever closer to what the big-money cartels which used to be south of us would like.
For example, small government (weak law enforcement, no taxes on currency transactions), low-quality education (drug mules don’t need it, man!), a cynical population that has washed its hands of corrupt politics and lets the mad dogs fight it out, a choked-up highway system (keep the liberals out of Austin!) and, most of all, a self-protecting network of powerful and wealthy individuals whose mission is to protect their routes, loads, offices, and perks.
If this sounds paranoid, stick around. We do need a change in government, and we may be getting one already.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
What about Garry Mauro or Paul Sadler?
Reply »
anita Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Garry Mauro? If that’s the best that Texas Democrats can offer up, shame on us. He’s a retread of a cheap, low-quality patched tire. No milage left on that piece of rubber.
Kirk Watson, Rafael Anchia, Paul Hobby, Carol Alvarado — all would make excellent candidates.
Reply »
"Red Dirt & Sand," blog. says:
Term limits for governor, I’m sure Independent Texans, Democrats, and fairly certain there are Republicans ready for this.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:27 am
Red Dirt, how about TWELVE YEARS 3 terms for only the office of governor.
Utah previously had a 3-term limit on the governor before it got repealed.
Reply »
"Red Dirt & Sand," blog. Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:55 am
I would rather see two full elected terms and only allow extra for finishing an unfinished term. Twelve years is plenty for even legislators so maybe 10 would be better. It still would be okay to move up from the state house to the state senate or other office. We need some people with experience around. We could start with one third that have 10 years or more term limited each two years until there is no one there over ten years except people that move up the political ladder or run for different offices.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Personally, I strongly prefer 12 years for only the governor and the down-ballot statewide officeholder can stay there for life.
Georgia has this rule, where the governor is term-limited, but the LG through Labor Commissioner can serve any unlimited amount of terms.
Louisiana also has this rule as well.
"Red Dirt & Sand," blog. Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Twelve years is too long for governor because of the power of appointments the governor has. Appointing heads of boards, commissions, and especially with Perry the rotating of staff to lobbyist or to head a commission or board increases the governor’s power above what the constitution intended in my opinion. That could be changed with term limits. There are some good legislators that have been in the legislature for a long time. It may be good for their party or district but I’m not so sure it has been good for the state.
Reminder says:
Perry is being congratulated by all of the pundits nationally on his much improved debate performance(s). He doesn’t need to run for Gov again. He is going out with dignity and can decide his future. Good for Texas.
Remember- Romney did not run for re election- and just now caught fire after running for prez for years… Goes to show you never can tell-/
Reply »
anita Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:59 am
I agree that now is the time for Perry to depart, on a slight uptick that allows him to claim some pride.
He’s going to have to do the right thing and endorse the eventual nominee, which at this point, I doubt he has the maturity to muster.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Anita…….”claim some pride”? Part of his downfall is being too prideful. He needs to claim some humility.
Reply »
anita Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
I agree, although I believe it is arrogance more then pride that has led to his downfall.
He’s not getting out until returns are in from South Carolina, if for no other reason than Gingrich is demanding that he do so to allow conservatives to unify behind him. If Gingrich were wise, he’d quit the demands long enough for Perry to claim his exit and it’s over.
Perry’s been humiliated, and deservedly so. Houston Chronicle reported yesterday that college kids at a South Carolina Republican rally were taunting him with rounds of “Adios, MoFo!” — ouch, that’s gotta hurt. He now personifies how a candidate with everything going for him can self-destruct and become an object of ridicule.
donuthin Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 6:15 am
Going out with dignity? I don’t think so. He has none.
Reply »
Johnbernardbooks says:
Nancy Pelosi told us the dems would win the US House in 2010. Now we’re being told again dems will win something somewhere soon.
Someone ain’t getting the message.
Reply »
Pelosi says:
The Republicans say their No. 1 goal is to get rid of Obama. Let’s see if the party can do that with a moderate and somtimes liberal Mitt Romney, who is defintely NOT a conservative.
Reply »
Blue Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 8:28 am
Median voter theory. Democrats saying Romney is the weakest candidate should be taken as seriously as Br’er Rabbit’s plea to Br’er Fox vis a vis the brumble patch.
Reply »
garvin Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:20 am
Romney is really to only viable candidate, moderate is good. The conservative rhetoric is so backward, the ideology so uneducated and the players subpar.
Reply »
George T. Willis Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Thank you for that gem of wisdom JBB.
Reply »
jpt51 says:
Sharp would get the TAMU vote Perry has relied on. A ballot with the name Henry Cisneros would drive Hispanic registration and voter rates to new highs. The paradigm shift would begin a Hispanic domination of Texas politics, whose affects will last far longer than the 94 shift to help Republicans. Bring it on!
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:29 am
JPT51, California elected Jerry Brown to a 3rd term as CA governor last year and Kitzhaber of Oregon won a 3rd term as well besides Branstad winning a 5th term in Iowa.
You see Republicans in Iowa are not complaining about Terry Branstad: who has been elected governor 5 times compared to Perry here in Texas elected 3 times as governor.
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Blue Dogs,
If that is true then why is Rick Perry repeatedly referred to as “the longest ‘serving’ governor in the nation”?
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Distinguished, if Perry were to die in office, Dewhurst could start his own 14-year reign too.
Anonymous says:
JPT51, your comment about Henry Cisneros shows you know nothing about politics. He career has been dead for well over a decade. Maybe you and Paul could get together and talk about how great it would be for politicians who’s name’s don’t carry much weight with the Texas electorate to run for office again.
Reply »
anita Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Cisneros could be a viable candidate. He’s never run for statewide office. He was San Antonio’s Mayor and later a cabinet secretary in the Clinton Administration. He had a fall from grace but could stage a comeback. I’d put my money on one of the Castro brothers, personally.
Reply »
George T. Willis Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
I’m not sure he could recover from all the foibles of a few years ago. I’m also not sure the Texas voter is ready for another Aggie.
Reply »
Texian Politico says:
Perry is done and should not run for reelection. He’s embarrassed our state with his horrible campaign and with his attacks on capitalism he’s proven that the only type of capitalism he understands is the crony type. Enough is enough. We need a new governor.
Reply »
Honey Badger says:
Governor’s race —> mortally wounded Kay’s reelection chances
Presidential race —> mortally wounded Perry’s reelection chances
Abbott will now run whether Perry runs or not. If Perry doesn’t run, Abbott will have company. He may have company anyway.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Honey Badger, considering that Abbott has served 3 terms as AG, how many will he serve as governor if elected in 2014 ?
A. 1
B. 2: unless he resigns to serve in a GOP White House in 2020
C. 3
Remember, Shivers, Daniel and Connally also served 3 terms.
Reply »
WUSRPH Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:03 pm
But their terms were only for two years…That makes a big difference.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
I never thought I would say this–if it was between having Perry for Governor or Abbott, I would pick Perry. Perry’s much less dangerous.
Reply »
ghostofann says:
More comedic stupidity from the mouth of Goodhair:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/17/perry-turkey-ruled-by-islamic-terrorists/
At this point, it’s almost like making fun of a mentally retarded child.
My only regret is that his slightly less stupid predecessor was not exposed like this for what he was 12 years ago. We might be living in a better world by now. Where were you, Paul? Oh, that’s right…shilling for Perry’s slightly less stupid predecessor.
Reply »
anita Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
The lack of diplomatic courtesy by Turkey shows the minimal level of respect Perry now commands — they go beyond correcting his statement to belittling him personally. Even folks in Turkey recognize what the Perry campaign doesn’t — that he’ll never become POTUS.
Reply »
garvin says:
Texas politicians have done enough to hurt this once great nation, and the American citizen won’t be fooled again. Texans WILL continue to be fooled and Perry will be around to assure our mediocrity for years to come.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
No
Reply »
"Red Dirt & Sand," blog. Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 12:20 pm
I second that NO. It is time for some musical chairs and some new faces. Texas has too much crony capitalism and we need to move forward.
Reply »
Hooah! says:
Of COURSE Perry can…and will…win re-election if he so desires. We Texans are a gullible people.
Reply »
WUSRPH Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:05 pm
How he does in the next legislative session will go a long way toward determining whether Perry has a chance for another term. I expect a full-force effort to pass all the stuff he can think of from tax cuts to school vouchers to personhood from conception and anything else he thinks can win him two votes.
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman says:
Hooah, could that be an argument in support of term limits?
Reply »
Cow Droppings says:
The same people attacking Perry here today were calling him Governor 39% five years ago. Polling numbers go up and down. What doesn’t change is critics finding a reason to criticize.
Reply »
Col. Mike Kirby Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
True, but at the time we didn’t realize it was also his IQ.
Reply »
anita Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
CD is right, polling numbers do go up and down.
I’d like to know what CD or anyone else with the Perry operation thinks will re-write the narrative that is now firmly established about Perry? What platform will he use here in Texas to re-brand himself?
It’s a nice theory that Perry can turn his image around, has time to build support here in Texas — but I want to know how you see him doing that in practice?
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:51 pm
I voted for Rick Perry in 2006 … something I did out of party loyalty, ditto my McCain vote in the general ’08.
I am done with that for sure!
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman says:
Cow Droppings, please understand that the Uber Goober known as the Governor of Texas always supplies ample fodder for criticism.
Reply »
AreYouKiddingMe says:
I think Anita mis-interpreted that burning bush she saw and thought it was a message for Rick to run for President. The real message was, if you run, you will go down in flames! Surely, all Texans have finally been embarrassed enough by this guy to elect someone else. Anybody who could place a vote for Perry now (in any race) is truly mentally challenged…
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Michael Williams, the former Railroad Commissioner could run for State AG in 2014 depending on how his House bid against Doggett turns out this fall.
Reply »
retrocon says:
Have you noticed how the populist talk show pundits and a large percentage of their listeners (including Tea Party folk) constantly wail against the “media” and the “establishment” for trying to tell them how to vote?
“We don’t need the media telling us who our nominee should be”, they say. “We don’t need establishment Republicans telling us who to vote for.”
Yet…
You’ll remember how Sarah Palin told voters — the day before the Iowa vote — not to vote for Michelle Bachmann. “It’s not her time”, Palin had said. Palin is now telling people in SC to vote for Gingrich. Some non-Romney talk show hosts (ie. Laura Ingraham) are actively calling on Gov. Perry to drop out of the race as the South Carolina vote approaches. She has persistently called on people to coalesce around one non-Romney candidate, but not Perry.
Isn’t it interesting how many voters, despite their bleatings, don’t seem to know how to vote until someone tells them how to vote?
Reply »
Bodhisattva says:
As tempting as it is to say last rites over Perry’s political career, I am reminded that many of us (myself included) were pronouncing those same last rites over Perry when Kay Bailey Hutchison — then the most popular elected official in Texas by far — announced she would seek the governorship in 2010. Perry will probably not go gentle into that good night.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
I’m already using the LAST RITES on Perry’s political career right now.
Are you trying to say Perry’s got something on his sleeve and has something on Abbott ?
Reply »
anita says:
CNN/TIme poll just released . . .
Perry is now running dead last in South Carolina, pulling down a whopping 6%. In Florida, he’s also solidly in last place, hugging the toilet at 2%.
Hey, at least he can soon come home to Texas, pull his government salary, collect his government retirement, live in his taxpayer-funded mansion, read his taxpayer-funded Food & Wine magazine, and continue to bitch about the government.
Reply »
AreYouKiddingMe says:
I agree he won’t go easy. BUT, I say again, SURELY Texas voters aren’t stupid enough to vote for this guy again for anything. SURELY!!! My tongue is firmly planted in cheek when I say that. Say what you will about Perry, but he knows the formula for winning in Texas: Talk about being anti-Washington, bibles, guns, anti- abortion, no debates, anti-media. Those draconian methods don’t work many places in the 21st century, but they still get you elected in Texas… Oh, and you have to be a card-carrying Repub or you have NO chance in a statewide race.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Note that the Texas Governor’s Mansion’s renovations are supposed to be finished sometime this year, so Perry and his wife, Anita will eventually move back into the mansion.
They moved out of the mansion during the summer of 2007 I believe.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 3:54 pm
How will they ever manage without the guesthouse and pool?
Reply »
WUSRPH Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 10:07 pm
The mansion has a pool…but they will probably try to get it turned into a museum and have the state buy their rental house.
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Perry will be so comfortable with his goobernatorial (err, gubernatorial) creature comforts that he will seek re-election as Governor in 2014. I fear that we will be stuck with him for an additional four years with the goober firmly ensconsed in gubernatorial.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 19th, 2012 at 10:29 am
How about take the Governor’s appointment powers away and give them to the Lieutenant Governor-who runs the state anyway ?
Texas Ex says:
Perry will not face the embarrassment of losing the Texas primary.
One of two things will happen before then; either
(1) he will gain momentum before the Texas primary and Perry will be in a strong position to win Texas or
(2) he will withdraw before then.
Let me propose a previously undiscussed scenario by which Perry could gain momentum (which would also explain why Perry “unquit” the race after he appeared to drop out in the wake of his poor showing in Iowa and would explain why he says he’s going on to Florida no matter how he does in South Carolina):
About 450,000 absentee ballots have been requested for the Republican primary in Florida, and this is a record far above and beyond the number of absentee ballots ever previously requested in a Republican race. Either Florida Republicans are bizarrely and unprecedentedly excited by the current weaker-than-dishwater field of candidates (which is highly unlikely) or SOMEONE has got a sneaky absentee ballot scheme in play for Florida.
Is it possible that someone with more money than supporters has got a huge absentee ballot scheme underway in Florida? It’s possible; maybe even probable.
If Perry was on the verge of withdrawing in Iowa when someone from his campaign had to remind him that he had already bought and paid for a huge absentee campaign in Florida, would that compel Perry to stay in the race? Probably.
Paul is in the race for the long haul.
Romney is in the race for the long haul.
Among Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry — one or two of them will eventually get tired of losing and drop out.
Santorum does not have the funds or the campaign organization to raise funds sufficient to compete on a nationwide basis. If Santorum comes in 4th or 5th in New Hampshire and then South Carolina and then Florida, does he really keep going?
Gingrich will leave the race when it is no longer in his interest (i.e., when it is apparent he cannot win and he has fully recharged his PR tanks but before there is a wide consensus that he’s overstaying his welcome).
Perry’s refusal to drop out is already an enigma. Maybe he has some reason to stay in the race through Florida that we don’t know about or maybe he’s just bat$#!+ crazy.
Ultimately, if Perry or Santorum or Gingrich were to drop out tonight, it would not create a situation where the remaining candidate or candidates would wipe the floor with Romney in South Carolina or Florida. But — with that said — if Perry is still in the race on Super Tuesday and Santorum or Gingrich are gone by then, it will be interesting to see where the race goes.
Bear this in mind: Bachmann was the only real “tea party” candidate. Among those left in the race, Santorum is really a social conservative but he’s not much of a tea party guy with his history with earmarks and lobbyists and raising the debt ceiling. Perry and Gingrich have flawed claims to the tea party mantle, but they certainly represent the tea party better that Romney (who is tea party poison).
If the race was among a Country Club Republican (Romney), a Libertarian (Paul), and a tea party nut (either Gingrich or Perry), it would be interesting to see Romney’s margin of victory, and it would be interesting to see how the Republican convention dealt with that tea party faction. Maybe Perry wants to be the guy who brings the tea party into the tent at the convention, even if that means he’s coming with even fewer delegates than Paul.
Reply »
anita Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Let me repeat, in response to your theory that Perry will gain momentum:
Perry is now running dead last in South Carolina, pulling down a whopping 6%. In Florida, he’s also solidly in last place, hugging the toilet at 2%.
Even if he were to “gain momentum”, he’d still be losing by double digits. Turn out the lights, the party’s over.
He’ll be out of the race and back to coyote hunting in West Austin in 2 weeks.
Reply »
Texas Ex Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Can’t we please just encourage him to spend just a little more in campaign funds before he comes home?
Reply »
Longhornfan Reply:
January 19th, 2012 at 3:37 am
Texas Ex,
Those FL absentee ballots are being collected by the Romney organization. Mark my words. They are NE U.S. retirees and Mormons.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Perry is making all Texans look like Aggies.
Reply »
Robert Morrow says:
I once had a reporter tell me “People can say anything” – meaning just because someone *says* something does not mean its true. Having said that …
Oftentimes the reality of a person or politician you see on TV or read about in the newspapers is FAR different that what is actually going on.
There was a lot more to the Herman Cain story than what the public got to know. It was far darker than just Cain hitting on a few women. When Politico did their expose on Cain, they intentionally left out a lot of the details. The reason Politico did that was because the “details” were so explosive.
In the course of my anti-Perry activities, I exchanged emails with someone who *says* he knew one of Herman Cain’s victims. A rape victim, after being drugged by Cain, according to this emailer. Note: I have not confirmed this.
This source just recently told me he was referring to Herman Cain in his correspondence with me.
Here is an email from 9/5/11 sent to me:
“As I stated in my last, I have retained an attorney and bodyguard protection. I approached the National Inquirer and Rolling Stones and got only a maybe from NE. Nothing from Rolling Stones Magazine.
I am not the victim, but the victim did confide with me and one other person about the incident. Basically she was (raped) after being drugged by the candidate [Cain]. She was very scared at the time and didn’t want either me our my friend to pursue the matter, but I cannot do that now that this person is running for an office that requires the highest moral standards above all else.
Please understand that compensation is not my end reason for doing this. I’m just a faithful American that wants to try and make a difference in who we select to run this country. Every one wants to be a millionaire, I’m just looking for something a lot less than that to pay my attorney and my body guard for about 10 years or so till this becomes a non issue..
My friend will collaborate (he’s against me doing this, but will work with me) and the only investigation needed is to locate the victim in New England. Probably would be pretty easy via Lexus Nexus or other means.
I’m pretty convinced that (we) would not even have to dig her up, but get the word to the candidate that he is about to be exposed unless he withdraws…sound OK? What would you think about me contacting the RNC? I suppose there may come a time I will reveal this gratis, but time is running out.
Thanks for corresponding with me. I ask you to respect the confidentiality of this information as I (we) move forward.
Thanks Again for listening and offering guidance.”
Reply »
Mainstream Media Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 4:38 pm
“When Politico did their expose on Cain, they intentionally left out a lot of the details. The reason Politico did that was because the ‘details’ were so explosive.”
I have to wonder, too, Robert if Herman Cain’s skin color played any role in the supression of this story. The mainstream media often handles persons of color with kid gloves.
Reply »
anita Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Yes, because people of color get all the breaks in America, and they are always portrayed in such a positive light.
Riiiight.
Reply »
anita says:
Blah blah blah . . .
Herman who?
Reply »
Anonymous says:
He said, they said, she said, you said……..hearsay…unreliable. …inadmissible Case closed
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Bill Clinton used to tell his state troopers when they questioned him about his rampant womanizing “Larry, unless they catch me live with a goat, I will just lie about it.”
So these politicians think they can lie their way through anything.
But when it becomes “he said, (1) she said, (2) she said, (3)she said, (4) she said” then it becomes a different ballgame due to the volume of the allegations or eyewitness testimony.
In the case of Herman Cain, just look at him whine about “dirty politics.” Dirty politics is when someone LIES about not you; Herman Cain thinks dirty politics is when someone tells the TRUTH about him!
Reply »
Bodhisattva says:
Morrow, you’d think that if your corrrespondent had approached Rolling Stone magazine with the story, he would at least know its name.
“Rolling Stones,” indeed. Jesus, do y’all even read what you write?
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Spelling checking is not determinative of truth … I think the source was dealing with me legitimately.
Reply »
texun says:
But let’s give the Uber Goober credit: he’s getting a lot more attention than he had before he made his idiotic statement.
Was he really so misinformed? Or was this just one more instance in which Perry was eager to say anything to get attention, even if he potentially weakened our ties with Turkey. Next to the Aussies and Brits, they have been among our most reliable allies since the Korean War. No matter to Perry. He’ll always say whatever it takes to claim the limelight. Shameless!
Reply »
December Run-Offs says:
Texas should start December run-offs. Back in November 2006, the Uber Goober captured a meager 39 percent of the vote. If we had December run-offs (as we have run-offs after the primaries), Perry might have lost. Georgia and Louisiana use December run-offs to determine the ultimate winner of a general election.
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 8:54 pm
In concert, of course, with term limits!
Yep, James R. “Rick” Perry has definitely put the “goober” back in gubernatorial!
Reply »
Ted Baxter Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 9:23 pm
if we had a December runoff in ’06 it would have been between Perry and Bell. Perry would have easily won, even in ’06.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
January 19th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Louisiana has November runoffs .
Reply »
"Red Dirt & Sand," blog. says:
We don’t even know when the primaries will be held. There is the possibility of them happening at about the time we would usually have state conventions.
Reply »
December Run-Offs Reply:
January 18th, 2012 at 8:58 pm
But we DO know when the November General Election is held.
Reply »
Adios, Mofo says:
Two words for Rick Perry: Adios, Mofo.
Reply »
Robert Morrow's anus says:
Paul, can u please do a few more blogs on Perry so Robert can use both hands to type a response an leave me alone? He’s weird.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Robert, I think we’re all tired of your shit. You’re not that deep and obsessed with a dead fish. NOBODY CARES ABOUT PERRY. Besides, aren’t you supposed to be digging up his past sexual partners and hanging them on stilts in front of the Capitol? What happened to that project? There are 180 other state legislators to talk about. Please start your own blog.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
January 19th, 2012 at 1:26 am
I have a Herman Cain post up there a few inches away, giving you information that has not been released by the MSM. Read and you will learn why Cain dropped really dropped out.
Reply »
Jonathan says:
Tommy Lee Jones for guvanuh. Paul, any inkling as to whether he’ll actually run for Senator?
Reply »
Johnbernardbooks says:
I posted yesterday that Perry was surging in SC and Paul removed it.
The only reason I can famthom is it didn’t fit the “Perry is finished mantra” displayed here daily.
Most dems I’ve met are risk averse, it seems they also suffer from truth aversion.
Reply »