FLA polls show Mitt pulling away from Newt
From RealClearPolitics:
1/30 polls
Insider Advantage: Romney 36, Gingrich 31
Public Policy Polling: Romney 39, Gingrich 32
Suffolk University: Romney 47, Gingrich 27
Quinnipiac: Romney 43, Gingrich 29
Gallup Tracking: Romney 27, Gingrich 28
1/29 polls
Survey USA: Romney 41, Gingrich 26
NBC Marist: Romney 42, Gingrich 27
Miami Herald/Mason Dixon: Romney 42, Gingrich 31
Rasmussen: Romney 44, Gingrich 28
Public Policy Polling: Romney 40, Gingrich 32
1/28 polls
Public Policy Polling: Romney 40, Gingrich 28
1/27 polls
Sunshine State: Romney 40, Gingrich 31
Quinnipiac: Romney 38, Gingrich 29
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All roads lead to Rome here. It’s hard to see how Gingrich can turn a state like Florida around.
Red says:
He may not be able to win FL, but the state will give Romney only 50 of the 1100+ delegates he’d need to win the nomination. Media “horse-race” talk always cracks me up.
And I’m def. not Team Newt.
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GeL says:
Gingrich needs to quit and go home. He has no family values as we know from him cheating on 2 terminally ill wives, & divorced them. Now he is supported by Cain! No wonder, they share their views on family values, it is quite apparrentHe also resigned in shame from his job of Speaker of the House in 1996. Those things just do not vanish
overnight. If the GOP really wants change and doesn’t want a con man and crook like this in office, they will wake up & not vote for Gingrich in the primary. He is an embarrassment to our Country!
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Robert Morrow Reply:
January 31st, 2012 at 10:08 am
This is an email that I got about Herman Cain back during my anti-Perry activities. Herman Cain is a very charming man; I personally liked him until I read this.
Cain settled to sexual harassment suits. Politico never reported the “details” of what Cain was charged with. I believe the reality of what Cain actually did is much, much darker than just hitting on a few women. Here is an email that I go on Sept 5, 2011; the author was a fried to one of Herman Cain’s sex victims:
“As I stated in my last, I have retained an attorney and bodyguard protection. I approached the National Inquirer and Rolling Stones and got only a maybe from NE. Nothing from Rolling Stones Magazine.
I am not the victim, but the victim did confide with me and one other person about the incident. Basically she was (raped) after being drugged by the candidate. She was very scared at the time and didn’t want either me our my friend to pursue the matter, but I cannot do that now that this person is running for an office that requires the highest moral standards above all else.
Please understand that compensation is not my end reason for doing this. I’m just a faithful American that wants to try and make a difference in who we select to run this country. Every one wants to be a millionaire, I’m just looking for something a lot less than that to pay my attorney and my body guard for about 10 years or so till this becomes a non issue..
My friend will collaborate (he’s against me doing this, but will work with me) and the only investigation needed is to locate the victim in New England. Probably would be pretty easy via Lexus Nexus or other means.
I’m pretty convinced that (we) would not even have to dig her up, but get the word to the candidate that he is about to be exposed unless he withdraws…sound OK? What would you think about me contacting the RNC? I suppose there may come a time I will reveal this gratis, but time is running out.
Thanks for corresponding with me. I ask you to respect the confidentiality of this information as I (we) move forward.
Thanks Again for listening and offering guidance.”
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Texhisself says:
Not polling well for The Newtster. He will need to focus on March, and the southern states as Nevada has the Mormon vote and Michigan is Romney country. My feeling is that only the most diehard Teabaggers would vote for a guy that Obama will roll in the general election. In my experience when a candidate starts blaming the media, he is toast.
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Robert Morrow says:
Newt Gingrich is yet another entitled, grandiose politician who you can’t trust no farther than you can throw him. He will sell you out in a heartbeat just like he would trade in one of his dumpy wives.
It is funny to watch Gingrich, with all his history of nasty campaigning & rhetoric, complain about Romney saying mean things about him; Gingrich’s biggest complaint is that he does not have the money to do likewise.
Let’s hope Romney blows him out of the water in Florida. And I am hoping Ron Paul breaks 10% in Florida.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
January 31st, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Face it folks: Romney IS going to be the GOP nominee come tonight.
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The Mustache That Dare Not Speak Its Name says:
So no Perry/Gingrich ticket, in any form? Alas.
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Johnbernardbooks Reply:
January 31st, 2012 at 1:47 pm
“So no Perry/Gingrich ticket, in any form?”
Not if you believe democrats, but alas, when were they last right about anything?
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Lucas Davenport Reply:
January 31st, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Iraq. The economy. Jobs. Healtcare….and on and on.
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Johnbernardbooks Reply:
January 31st, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Iraq? You mean when Harry declared the war is lost?
ghostofann says:
It was lost way before then, JBB. So I guess Romney’s going to be your new favorite now?
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Johnbernardbooks Reply:
January 31st, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Bush won the war in Iraq, it took the dems in charge to loose it, just like Nam.
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Jerry Only Reply:
January 31st, 2012 at 8:41 pm
yup. right under that “mission accomplished” banner.
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Johnbernardbooks Reply:
February 1st, 2012 at 6:19 am
Thats right Pres Bush won it and Pres Obama managed to give it all away. Our soldier died for nothing.
Thanks dems.
Johnbernardbooks Reply:
January 31st, 2012 at 4:33 pm
“So I guess Romney’s going to be your new favorite now?”
ABO.
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Johnbernardbooks says:
Has super tues been cancelled or just the Texas primary?
This has been the dems agenda all along stop Tx from voting.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
February 1st, 2012 at 9:45 am
Romney is also likely to win Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Arizona coming up, so that he can eliminate the competition on the GOP side.
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Johnbernardbooks says:
so its settled dems have chosen Romney as the GOP nominee. Does that mean they won’t be obsessing anymore over who the rep nominee will be?
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Robert Morrow says:
Political pundits, by definition, are not reliable… (except for Larry Sabato who is pretty darn good).
http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/the-best-totally-wrong-predictions-of-the-republican-primary-20120202
“The Best Totally Wrong Predictions of the Republican Primary”
Now that we’ve had a couple hours to mourn the fact that the most boring Republican candidate will likely be the presidential nominee, it’s time to hold all those pundits who tricked us into thinking there would be someone more fun to write about accountable for their mistakes. In the same way that InTrade is inexplicably used as having predictive power–as if online betters reflect anything other than polls and media coverage–sometimes it seems like what counts as prognostication is just whatever sounds smart at exactly the second it’s being said. Our guide to the forecasts that sound funniest in hindsight.
Prediction: Rick Perry will own the debates.
Prognosticator: Kinky Friedman
Date: Sept. 5, 2011
Quote: “Unless he starts speaking in tongues, I predict Rick Perry wins the debate.”
Reality: Perry was destroyed in the debates. He did almost speak in tongues, though.
Prediction: Perry is unstoppable.
Prognosticator: CNN’s James Moore Date: Aug. 31, 2011
Quote: “Perry will win the Iowa caucuses easily because Michele Bachmann will be running out of money and will have scared the party leadership. In New Hampshire, he will at least finish close to [Mitt] Romney, and in South Carolina he will affirm his run by winning the delegates necessary to seal up the nomination. Perry will take South Carolina by a margin wider than his credibility gap. Romney has the money and the infrastructure (and faltering judgment) to hang tough until Super Tuesday on March 6, but Perry will easily pocket wins in Texas, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. With the nomination wrapped up, Perry will then start talking about jobs and the economy instead of Jesus.” Reality: Perry came in fifth in Iowa, sixth in New Hampshire, and dropped out before South Carolina.
Prediction: Jon Huntsman will appeal to the working class.
Prognosticator: Politico
Date: May 11, 2011
Quote: Referring to Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’s decision not to run: “Each of the three has qualities that may appeal to Daniels’s partisans. Romney shares the business background and focus on competence. Pawlenty and Huntsman have an informal style that appeals to economically downscale voters…. ‘[Pawlenty's] not as compelling or brilliant as Huntsman, but he’s right in the middle of the voter zone for Republican primary- and caucus-goers,’ [a GOP strategist said.]”
Reality: Huntsman appealed only to media people, especially fancy media people, most notably when he was profiled in Vogue.
Prediction: Romney is doomed because he won’t apologize for “Romneycare.”
Prognosticator: The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin
Date: Feb. 14, 2011
Quote: “However, if there is one point of consensus among plugged-in Republicans on the 2012 field, it is that Romney can’t win unless he does a mea culpa on Romneycare. Since he didn’t and he won’t do that, he’s not going to be the nominee. Other than Romney admirers (and even some of them!) it’s hard to find serious Republican players who disagree with that.”
Reality: The Not Romneys never hit Romney that hard on Romneycare, and when they did, it didn’t do much. Santorum was very good in comparing the program to Obamacare in the last Florida debate, but Romney still crushed him.
Prediction: Tim Pawlenty’s got this.
Prognosticator: The New York Times’ Ross Douthat
Date: May 16, 2011
Quote: “In a Huckabee-Romney rematch, or a Huckabee-Romney-Daniels struggle, Pawlenty would have been in constant danger of being outflanked from both sides at once–on social issues one week, and then on the good-government-moderate flank the next. But now he has an excellent shot at a clean victory in Iowa, he’s well-positioned to pick up a lot of Huckabee’s supporters across the South (where his main competition will be Newt Gingrich), and at the end of the day, he’ll still be moderate and safe and competent-seeming enough to woo voters in the Northeast and his native Midwest. Throw in the fact that both Romney and Gingrich infuriated conservative activists this weekend by defending the idea of an individual mandate in health care, and suddenly Pawlenty has perhaps the clearest path to the Republican nomination of any major contender. Unless… somebody else emerges to outflank him from the right in Iowa.”
Reality: Pawlenty dropped out in August.
Prediction: Rick Perry is making his gaffes on purpose in order to win the South Carolina primary.
Prognosticator: Human Events’ Tony Lee
Date: Aug. 16, 2011
Quote: Comparing Perry’s comment that Ben Bernanke would get beat up if he went to Texas to the time Perry hinted Texas would secede, Lee writes, “It is why Perry’s comments in Iowa were deliberate to get the same type of effect on a national level and to help him win South Carolina, whose conservative primary electorate Perry was clearing targeting…. These comments were not gaffes and a part of a deliberate strategy by Perry…. His comments about the Federal Reserve ensures that stories about the ‘HPV vaccine’ do not flood cable television this week when primary voters are getting their first impression of Perry. Instead, their first impression will be that of a man in a seersucker blazer railing against the Federal Reserve.”
Reality: Perry was a gaffe machine, and if it was on purpose, it was the stupidest strategy of all time.
Prediction: Mike Huckabee’s decision not to run will make it even harder for Romney.
Prognosticator: The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin
Date: March 11, 2011
Quote: “In fact, the departure of Huckabee and Palin may help the anyone-but-Romney voters coalesce around a single candidate. In short, I think Romney is locked into mounting a real race in Iowa, a race he could easily lose…. That brings us to the next question: Is a defeat in Iowa fatal? When the front-runner with the most money, the biggest and most experienced staff, and near-100 percent name recognition loses, it may not be a death blow, but it’s a major blow nevertheless.”
Reality: Not Romney voters did not coalesce around a single candidate, ever. Romney almost won in Iowa. It was not a major blow that his victory was later retracted.
Prediction: There is room for a moderate candidate to crush the right-wingers in the primary.
Prognosticator: Rudy Giuliani, per the New York Post
Date: Jan. 7, 2011
Quote: “Sources say the tough-talking former mayor ‘thinks the Republican race will be populated with far-right candidates like Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee, and there’s opportunity for a moderate candidate with a background in national security.’”
Reality: Moderate candidates like Pawlenty and Huntsman did not find much success this election. Just kidding—they found zero success. Also, unlike in 2008, no one thinks Romney’s a “conservative’s conservative.”
Prediction: South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s endorsement of Romney will help him in the conservative state.
Prognosticator: The New York Times
Date: Dec. 16, 2011
Quote: “The endorsement from Ms. Haley has the potential to help Mr. Romney in a critical, conservative state where he is trailing Newt Gingrich in most polls. Mr. Romney came in fourth in the state in 2008, getting only 15 percent of the vote… It also gives Mr. Romney another stamp of approval from an outside-Washington, tea party conservative who can testify—and will, all weekend long—that Mr. Romney’s conservative credentials are better than Mr. Gingrich’s.”
Reality: Romney got creamed in South Carolina, especially among conservatives and tea partiers. Haley is unpopular in her state.
Prediction: Sarah Palin’s endorsement will matter a lot.
Prognosticator: CNN
Date: Oct. 6, 2011
Quote: “Greg Mueller, a Washington-based conservative strategist who has worked closely with the Palins in recent months, said Palin ultimately will be hugely valuable to whichever candidate she supports. A Palin endorsement ‘packs an incredible one-two punch’ in both the primary and the general election, he said. If Palin offers a full-throated endorsement in the Republican primary, she has the potential to rally ‘the conservative foot soldiers –social conservatives and tea party activists–’who will go out and work hard and knock on doors.’”
Reality: Palin said she would vote for Gingrich before the South Carolina primary. He won there, but he got crushed in Florida.
Prediction: Gingrich could win because of his organizational and financial strength.
Prognosticator: The New Republic’s Walter Shapiro
Date: May 10, 2011
Quote: “Gingrich also boasts unusual financial and institutional advantages that his rivals lack. As The Wall Street Journal detailed in a front-page article on Monday, Gingrich has constructed a daisy chain of think tanks and advocacy organizations to promote his pet causes and his political future. One number stands out in the article: the 1.7 million e-mail addresses that Newt-created organizations have collected.”
Reality: Shapiro was right that Gingrich shouldn’t have been counted out, but he was crushed by Romney because he couldn’t raise enough money. He’s expected to do poorly in the upcoming caucuses, which reward organizational strength, which he does not have.
Prediction: Mitt Romney is DOOMED.
Prognosticator: Writer Jonathan Chait
Date: A whole bunch of times, but here’s a sample from May 16, 2011
Quote: “In my view, the three main contenders for the nomination are, in order, 1) Tim Pawlenty, 2) A party establishment-friendly Republican not currently running, such as Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan, and 3) Bachmann. Everybody else, including Sick Man of the GOP Field Mitt Romney, falls into the longshot bin.”
Reality: Romney is winning.
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