UT/Trib poll: Dewhurst leads Cruz
Dewhurst 38%
Cruz 27%
Leppert 7%
James 7%
Jim Henson, co-director of the poll, writes, “David Dewhurst is roughly splitting the extremely conservative primary voters with Ted Cruz. That’s not a sign of failure or defeat, but it is a yellow flag.”
Maybe I’m reading this wrong, but it seems to me that if Dewhurst is “roughly splitting” the extremely conservative vote with Cruz, that’s good for Dewhurst, not problematical. It means Dewhurst gets half of the extremely conservative voters and, presumably, all of the moderates. In this scenario, he wins.
An interesting question is whether the delay of the primary caused by redistricting helps Dewhurst or Cruz more. It might be Cruz. He needs the extra time to increase his name ID. A longer race helps Dewhurst too, because Cruz’s campaign doesn’t have the deep pockets that Dewhurst’s does. Dewhurst wins a war of attrition.
I still have a hard time believing that this is really a 38-27 race.
Drazen Petrovic says:
The methodology shows that less than 300 likely voters were asked on the ballot test in an online poll.
That alone should raise eyebrows.
Reply »
Logan! Reply:
February 21st, 2012 at 5:05 pm
The Cruz campaign is probably tossing a coin as to whether the prolonged primary is good for him or not.
Keep in mind, the longer the race persists, the longer his Washington PAC funders have to decide to play in toss-up states rather than a solid GOP state.
And what about this Addison guy? He could find a way to steal any Cruz Tea Party mojo by bringing up the China and Goldman Sachs angle.
Reply »
Al Anon says:
Does anybody really believe that Cruz is that high and Leppert is that low? Based on regional appeal alone, Leppert has to be north of 10 percent.
Reply »
Victorious Secret Reply:
February 21st, 2012 at 4:56 pm
If you ask the lobbyists who chat it up with the campaigns, they’ll tell you that Leppert is in 2nd (and also doomed to suffer a runoff defeat).
They talk about a Dewhurst January internal poll with Cruz at 5% and a Cruz internal poll from November that was only slightly different…
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 21st, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Leppert’s strategy will be to run ads in the Metroplex and try to pile up enough votes to get into a runoff with the Dew.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 21st, 2012 at 11:14 pm
I don’t chat it up with lobbyists, but I believe Leppert will finish second. But Dewhurst may be able to avoid a runoff.
Reply »
Toni Kukoc says:
A poll conducted online? Is this what it’s come down to? Dewhurst obviously has the personal funds to run a statewide media operation. But Cruz will have to go to the well multiple times just to stay afloat. In an election year as important as any other, will outside groups pour money into Cruz when there are other races in the country that need help as well?
Reply »
Vaughn Building Janitor Reply:
February 21st, 2012 at 5:24 pm
The competency of the Cruz campaign is a severe disappointment. Their Texas fundraising operation is a joke, and they don’t have a capable grassroots team to plug supporters into the campaign. If there’s a runoff, he won’t be involved…
Reply »
PingPongGuy says:
Did Ted Cruz’s wife work for Goldman Sachs?
Isn’t that ironic, given the whole “tea party” angle Cruz is taking? If the folks waving anti-bailout signs, and “don’t tread on me” stickers are backing someone married to a former banker at Goldman Sachs, isn’t that almost a form of comedy or performance art?
Also kind of blows a hole in the “common man” image, doesn’t it?
Reply »
Ryan says:
I’m dubious these results could be replicated with a poll of Texas Republican primary voters.
Anyone read the methodology?
The pool of respondent are culled from banner ads, email solicitation and a few phone calls. Although it is a way to find an audience to take a poll, it’s no way to find registered primary voters.
http://d2o6nd3dubbyr6.cloudfront.net/media/documents/UTTT-201202-methodology.pdf
I still think the support across Texas for Dewhurst carries the day.
Reply »
Adrian Juarez says:
If Cruz wants the Anglo Republican vote; he needs to start saying he’s a Cuban NOT Mexican. Anglo Republicans and some Mexican Republicans don’t like Mexicans.
Reply »
skeptic says:
Who can believe support for Craig James is that high? With a 5% margin of error in this poll, I’d say Craig is at 2% or less.
Reply »
vincent says:
Cruz will end up never being able to run for anything if a mass media campaign is waged around his defense of a Chinese company already found guilty of intellectual property theft against a 75 year old American inventor.
Reply »
Drazen Petrovic Reply:
February 21st, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Addison has already come out against Cruz on his defense of a Communist Chinese company pretty aggressively, or as aggressively as you can with his resources.
If the Cruz campaign was anywhere near this level of support, wouldn’t we see Leppert, Dewhurst, James and Addison have guns blazing?
Reply »
Wendy Windstorm says:
Cruz WAS at 27% – but then found out that almost all of his online votes were from illegal Canadians here to support their fellow countryman.
Among Texans, Cruz is at 5%.
Reply »
Mrs. J. Jesse says:
Heard that the Cruz folks tried to fire their political director but are having trouble finding a willing replacement who doesn’t need job security longer than 3 months
Reply »
High Paid Trolls says:
Enjoy your paychecks fools. The real polls have consistently shown Cruz gaining on Dewhurst. Today was a hell of a day for Cruz.
Of course the extended primary helps Cruz. More time to get his message out there and get his name ID up. More time to fundraise and save money for the crucial month before the election.
The problem for Dewhurst is that he doesn’t even know why he’s running. He’s a lackluster candidate with a big pot of money. Obviously, the voters are smart enough to look past that money and to pick the true conservative in the race.
Like I said, enjoy your paychecks. Enjoy sitting around commenting on blogs for a living. In the meantime, Cruz and his staff is actually out working the grassroots. You will fail because these polls prove you can’t prevent the runoff and none of your voters will care enough to turnout when the runoff happens in the middle of the summer.
Reply »
reasonably paid ugnaught Reply:
February 21st, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Bitter much?
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 21st, 2012 at 10:47 pm
I sent an inappropriate comment to trash. Commenters must not engage in demeaning remarks about candidates’ personal lives.
Reply »
Colors says:
According to my handy-dandy margin of error/victory calculator, and given the percentages for the top two candidates, the sample size and the margin of error in ths poll, Dewhurst currently has a 98.42% chance of winning the primary. Subject to change, of course…
Reply »
Dave says:
Wonder what the results would have been if there was an actual ‘Undecided’ option, not just ‘another Republican?’ Hard to take such a poll seriously. Maybe for Pres, but this race isn’t even on the radar for a lot of primary voters.
Reply »
john johnson says:
Looks to me like James is definiely following in his protege’s footsteps. Just like Perry, he doesn’t know when to quit.
Reply »
A. Sagnussem Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 9:09 am
Sort of funny, the Craig James ego-candidacy. Very Perry like, but Perry is a true politician. Hopefully James will go away after this. Wouldn’t bet on it….
Reply »
Gen. Sam Houston says:
How is Cruz’s first quarter fundraising going? I know Clayty Williams is helping him in Midland, but I haven’t heard of anything else. Meanwhile, he’s continuing to send out the mail…highly expensive way to raise money. If Cruz is now out of gas in Texas — and was planning on running strictly with big dollars from Super Pacs based in his home precinct of Northwest Washington, D.C. — it’s going to be a long four months.
Reply »
Willie James says:
Such a weak field. Much like the national GOP candiates. I fear for the Republicans. The best and brightest they have is Dewhurst? After Perry? After Bush? The rest of the field would be unelectable in 43 states. Why here?
Reply »
Pierre Trudeau's Ghost says:
So our Canada export to Texas, Ted Cruz, is futzing poll numbers? And not willing to support your John Cornyn in a leadership fight? My, my, my. What dastardly deal has Cruz cut with Jim DeMint or Rand Paul for their support? Cruz certainly has learned your backstabbing American political habits well.
America gave Canada acid rain, so we gave you Ted Cruz. That seems fair.
Reply »
JohnBernardBooks says:
Was this UT/Trib poll also funded by Soros?
Reply »