One more comment on the UT/Trib poll
I have made some inquiries today about internal polling in the Senate race. I am satisfied that the 38-27 spread in the UT/Trib poll considerably understates Dewhurst’s lead over Cruz.
BREAKING: House committee assignments »
Cornyn, Cruz oppose Kerry confirmation »
Not with a bang but a whimper »
Perry will deliver State of the State address on Tuesday; is it his last? »
SAEN: DNC finance chair Munoz’s career marred by fiscal debacle »
“Battleground Texas” »
Campbell, Davis draw two-year terms »
The way politics ought to be »
Recommended reading: John Weaver on the future of the GOP »
Guns in school and everywhere else »
January 2013 »
December 2012 »
November 2012 »
October 2012 »
September 2012 »
August 2012 »
July 2012 »
June 2012 »
May 2012 »
April 2012 »
March 2012 »
February 2012 »
January 2012 »
December 2011 »
November 2011 »
October 2011 »
September 2011 »
August 2011 »
July 2011 »
June 2011 »
May 2011 »
April 2011 »
March 2011 »
February 2011 »
Al Anon says:
If I were the Leppert and James campaigns, I’d use this excuse to start making mincemeat out Mr. Cruz.
Reply »
Robert Morrow says:
If Cruz makes it into a runoff with Dewhurst, anything can happen.
Reply »
Does Math Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 9:39 am
Actually, only two things can happen
Reply »
Mr. Smith says:
Whoever wins this primary wins the election. And I don’t like any of them. Having said all that, poor Tom Leppert was talked into running at a weak moment, when he was bored as Mayor of Dallas. Not only does no one know him outside of Dallas, but he relied on south Dallas votes to become mayor, and they won’t be voting in that primary come May. Craig James is runing to run for something else. So both come in with single digits. The long primary helps Cruz. What hurts Cruz is that he’s running in the Republican Primary, and his last name is Cruz. He doesn’t have enough money to overcome every bubba in east and west Texas who won’t pull the lever for an hispanic no matter what crazy right wing statement he makes. And the Lite Gov will flood the airwaives with anti-Obama drivel for a month before the vote. He wins without a runoff.
Reply »
longleaf Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 8:13 am
I agree. How hard would it have been to change his last name to Cruise? Just change a few letters. Same way many Germans who cam here changed Schmidt to Smith.
The Eastern European Jews figured this out long ago. When you come to this country, you need to “blend in” even to the point of denying your surname. Kirk and Michael Douglas come to mind. There are many, many other examples. Politics is a lot like show business, as Ronald Reagan used to point out.
The Hispanics are NEVER going to turn out to vote in this state in high enough numbers to offset this prejudice. And if they ever do, if they continue not to vote the “right” way, their votes will then be ruthlessly suppressed and/or touchscreen-hacked.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 10:26 pm
The Democrats can’t sit around and wait for the Hispanics to turn out. At the same time, every 365 days, another 90,000 or so kids turn 18. The majority of those kids are Hispanic, and some of them are going to vote. The demographics are inexorable. Republicans have shut their eyes to the numbers for years. It’s 2012. Ten years from now it will be 2022, and another 900,000 kids, many of them Hispanic, will be eligible to vote. The Democrats don’t need for a lot of them to vote in order to win.
Reply »
TLG says:
LUV ur March cover!
Reply »
Ida says:
Can we look forward to you sharing the data that your satisfaction is based on? Or maybe hearing who you talked to? Were they connected with the campaigns? If so, which campaigns?
Looking forward to the extra information.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 10:28 am
Yes, I talked to people connected with campaigns.
Reply »
Blue Dogs says:
Dewhurst will win the GOP primary in May with 56 percent of the vote and win the November general election with 69 percent.
Reply »
Mr. Smith says:
I agree in the primary, blue dog. In the general, 61%.
Reply »
Drazen Petrovic says:
Now Cruz refuses to back John Cornyn. Bad Move.
Beware of paywall: http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20120221-ted-cruz-surprises-senate-analysts-by-hesitating-to-back-fellow-texan-john-cornyn-for-top-post.ece
Reply »
Vaughn Building Janitor Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 9:53 am
This is quickly becoming a Washington vs. Texas race. Cruz has decided to let DC lobbyist Dick Armey run his campaign!
This must be why Jason Johnson’s website is down…if Armey’s the GC, he needs to update the “clients” section.
Reply »
Paul, Paul, Paul says:
Paul, do you consider yourself a journalist or do you just go by the label “blogger” now? This post is absolutely a freaking joke.
Unless you provide more (any) substantial information to back this up, I am going to read this post as saying the following:
“My name is Paul. I haven’t had an inside scoop since the Democrats were in power. My sources are limited to the left and to the offices of a few moderates who still think I am relevant. That is why I assumed that Ted Cruz would lose. When the Trib poll came out yesterday I was shocked at how wrong I was. I started making up excuses. To back up those excuses I went and talked to the Dewhurst campaign. They gave me their internal polling numbers. Without being provided with a methodology, I chose to believe those numbers, because they fit with what my assumptions were about this race. I am a clown. I will be wrong in May.
Now, maybe you can be a journalist for a change and tell us something substantial about why you believe two independent professional polls are wrong, but I suspect that it would require citing to the lame Dewhurst internal polling.
Reply »
Logan! Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:26 pm
If your assessment–which lacks any source but attacks Burka for the same thing–is anywhere near true, why doesn’t the Cruz campaign prove it?
They had a poll done by a very good firm. They chose not to release the results. They didn’t even whisper about the top lines. Meanwhile, they’ve been promoting polls from liberal firms and extremely suspect internet polls. Why didn’t they promote their own poll?
Because it was full of bad news. Ask the pollster. Ask the people who regularly talk to that pollster. Cruz is trying to break into double digits.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 10:16 pm
Logan’s point is well taken. If Cruz was overtaking Dewhurst, we would have heard about it. John Drogin isn’t shy about tooting his horn. We know that Public Policy Polling has Dewhurst at 2x Cruz (36% to 18%). I think Dewhurst’s number in the UTT/Trib poll (38%) is ballpark, but the Cruz number is way overstated. Baselice does Dewhurst’s polling, and he is rarely wrong. I don’t think this race is an exception. Even if I didn’t know any numbers, I would still have doubts that Cruz can win. He doesn’t have name ID, he doesn’t have enough money to compete with Dewhurst’s warchest, and he is relying on word of mouth from the far-right groups who adore him. Texas is not a word of mouth state. Money talks.
Reply »
Logan? says:
Source to what, clown? I’m making fun of Burka, not trying to prove anything that isn’t public knowledge from the TxTrib and PPP polls.
As for internal polling — there are no expenditures for polling on Cruz’s last FEC report. I haven’t heard of them doing an internal poll at least in the last quarter. I don’t think they’ve done one. Why would they? They haven’t started running ads yet so they know they’re still behind. But they also know they’re headed in the right direction with three months left. Why waste valuable ad money learning what you already know.
But you can go ahead and keep trusting Dewhurst’s internal numbers that they released without a methodology. They’re way more trustworthy than any of the public firms …
Reply »
Drazen Petrovic Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Wilson Perkins Allen
Reply »
Vaughn Building Janitor Reply:
February 22nd, 2012 at 3:13 pm
There are few things sadder than a campaign that won’t share its poll numbers with its own staff…
Reply »
free advice Reply:
February 23rd, 2012 at 12:02 pm
No polling expenses? Say What? Try $30 large for polling.
Here’s some advice.
Step 1) come up with thought. Step 2) research thought. Step 3) come to conclusion. Step 4) compose thought. Step 5) share thought.
Stop skipping steps 2 thru 4.
Reply »
Gen. Sam Houston Reply:
February 23rd, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Memo to Logan: No polling expenses for Cruz in last finance report? You are totally in denial. Try Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, paid $31,875 by the Cruz campaign on 12/1/2011, duly reported in the 4Q report. You’re on the Cruz staff and don’t know they did a poll?
Reply »
Keep Mopping says:
I ain’t staff.
Reply »
No reason to deal says:
I have never sensed any broad enthusiasm for a Cruz campaign.
Reply »
Al Anon says:
Dissing Cornyn is a death blow.
Reply »
West coast weddings, Chinese tires and yellow roses says:
Cruz’s limited support comes from some conservatives, populist Tea Partiers and early adopting band wagon activists who think he’s God’s gift to America.
What Cruz’s supporters don’t know is:
Cruz is advised and supported to the tune of a quarter million dollars by a leader of California’s pro-gay marriage effort.
Cruz is voluntarily defending a Chinese company that stole intellectual property from an American small business owner.
Cruz is not supported by anyone who’s actually known him for longer than one of his speeches.
And….
Proceeds from the Cruz campaign finance bar tabs and “friendly company” at the Yellow Rose.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
February 23rd, 2012 at 2:23 pm
I find the cruz to be a most unpleasant person, but a source or a little more on the Yellow Rose connection please…
Reply »
josia says:
I am sick and tired of people saying “increase his Name ID”
Reply »
joe says:
If Cruz loses the primary, it won’t be because of his Hispanic last name. Carillo and Garza both won GOP primaries for RR Commission. Just last year, candidates with the last names Canseco and Flores were able to win US House GOP primaries.
Reply »