Romney grabs 2-1 lead in Illinois (54%-27%)
UPDATE: 9:16 p.m. The margin currently stands at 50%-32% (9:16 p.m.), down slightly from 54%-27%. Some commenters posted last week, after the vote in Alabama, that much of the Republican vote in Illinois was downstate. I didn’t buy that at the time, and I don’t buy it now. Illinois is an urban state; the Chicago metro area is a huge source of votes, and there’s no way Santorum, who relies on rural voters, could compete in Illinois. He didn’t have the organization to get himself on the ballot in several congressional districts. If there is any certainty in politics, it is that Romney is going to own the urban areas in the Republican nominating contest. Santorum will probably do well in Texas, with its large rural area, and in its cities that are populated with people whose roots are rural. I think Santorum will win the state, but Houston and Dallas have large contingents of establishment voters. Louisiana, the next state where the two GOP frontrunners will square off, is going to be interesting. The political divide in Louisiana is the redneck Protestant north vs. the Catholic Cajun south with the establishment vote in New Orleans as the determining factor.
The magnitude of Romney’s victory is very impressive. I have thought all along that he would be the GOP nominee, and I see no reason to back off that view.
Kenneth D. Franks says:
I am glad the race will last until the Texas Primary. Santorun will most likely win Louisiana and has many Texas supporters. The Bob Perry’s of the state are giving to the Romney SUPER PAC I have read though and others will follow.
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Texian Politico Reply:
March 21st, 2012 at 12:55 pm
It’ll be over by the time it gets to TX in late May, especially after Santorum loses PA in April.
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Willie James says:
I think the math agrees with Paul. Interesting to watch the graphic presentation that CNN did on the race, showing what states and margins Santorum would have to win. Looks over to me, and for the good. Our country could not afford a divisive loon like Santorum or Gingrich.
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Bodhisattva Reply:
March 21st, 2012 at 11:37 am
Neither Santorum nor Gingrich will ever been the President of the United States.
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Just Another Joe says:
“I have thought all along that he (Romney) would be the GOP nominee…”
Except for when you thought Perry was going to be the nominee, right?
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Blue Dogs Reply:
March 21st, 2012 at 9:41 am
Romney is just waiting for friendlier states to come later by April and May.
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anon Reply:
March 21st, 2012 at 12:41 pm
No kidding…remember the Burka quote from August–Rick Perry will be the Republican nominee.
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Texian Politico Reply:
March 21st, 2012 at 12:56 pm
I think that’s right. Burka, how do you explain that?
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Melanie says:
Jebbie just endorsed Mitt. This thing is over. Texas primary does not mean squat. Hey, JBB, how is the Perry/Gingrich thing working out for you?
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Kenneth D. Franks says:
“Redneck Protestant North?” My Louisiana friends and relatives, yes, some of them are proud “Rednecks,” and others are proud Cajuns but some might find the redneck term and comment offensive, especially from someone from Texas.
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