Romney win in WI could end GOP nomination fight
Romney holds a comfortable lead over Rick Santorum going into Tuesday’s primary election. Wisconsin does not have the profile of a state that is Santorum-friendly. I saw a graphic on TV on Friday showing that the percentage of voters who are evangelicals is much smaller in Wisconsin than in Ohio, and Santorum didn’t do well in Ohio. In any event, Romney’s biggest threat isn’t Rick Santorum. It’s Mitt Romney. Folks don’t like him.
From the Washington Post:
A recent (March 14-18) Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone among a random national sample of 1,004 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The results: 50% of adults and 52% of registered voters view Romney unfavorably.
The Post said this was the worst number for a leading presidential candidate since 1984, when Ronald Reagan won every state against Walter Mondale except Mondale’s home state of Minnesota.
The obvious danger for Republicans is that Romney’s high unfavorable rating jeopardizes the GOP’s effort to protect, much less extend, its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and to wrest the Senate majority from Democrats. I’m sure everybody is tired of hearing about a brokered convention, but if Romney goes into the convention with these numbers, will party honchos start looking around for an alternative? These developments indicate how prescient George Will was when he wrote recently that Republicans should focus on what was attainable–that is, taking back the Senate majority from the Democrats and increasing the Republican majority in the House–instead of trying to defeat Obama.But are those scaled-down goals attainable with Romney as the party’s standardbearer? And if not Romney, then who? Suppose Romney’s numbers continue to tank. Does this resuscitate the possibility of a brokered convention?
Jim says:
Nice article today on GOP distancing itself from Bush…..Romney is rolling.
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Greg says:
“In any event, Romney’s biggest threat isn’t Rick Santorum. It’s Mitt Romney. Folks don’t like him.”
I think this hits the nail on the head. Fascinating to hear James Carville address this same issue Thursday evening at an event hosted by UTPB. http://www.wagnernoel.com/event.php?m=3&d=%2029&y=2012
Carville’s opinion is that Romney is disliked to a large degree because he is listening to bad advice:
1. somebody is asleep at the wheel re. advice about tax returns, money in overseas banks, California house remodel (example: Carville asks why some adviser didn’t tell Romney to wait to do this project in November?), etc.
2. Romney needs to play to his strength — he is a person who can fix things — that is what he has done in the past and what he can do in the future as President. He’s not an “average guy” when it comes to wealth (get rid of the pressed jeans) and he should not attempt to act as though he isn’t wealthy. He’s not the most conservative guy on the (Republican) block. But he is able to find solutions to problems.
The question that Carville raised that I’m still mulling over re. Romney is whether he really has “fire in the belly” to do what it takes to win the presidency. Carville questions whether Romney REALLY wants to be president enough to do what he must to win.
My hope is that Romney really is a guy who is enough of a problem solver that he can solve the problems that his campaign is experiencing, which may, among other things, require that he make some tough decisions about changing where he is getting his advice.
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Anonymous says:
I am one of those folks who don’t like Romney…..but after all the Op Eds, the spin, the debates, the blogs, the analysis, the commentaries, the polls, etc….. he is better than Obama. I will definitely vote for Romney….and I do not want a brokered convention.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 2nd, 2012 at 10:00 am
I didn’t vote for Obama in 2008 and will NOT this year, I’m voting for Romney because there’s a good possibility he can send the Obamas back to Chicago where they belong on November 6th.
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John Johnson says:
Interesting comments, Greg….and Anny, you sum it up for me really well. Romney’s positions on several issues trouble me…wanting to keep troops in Afghanistan, no mention of putting some limits in place on crude speculating and campaign funding, not enough on tax reform…but he is the best chance we have for beating Obama, and that’s the bottom line. Paul, for some reason, doesn’t bring this consideration into the thread. Once Romney is standing alone, the vast majority of Repubs and many Indie’s and Bluedog Dem’s will be standing next to him.
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Blue says:
Paul, be sure to look at the crosstabs on those polls. The recent Quinnipac poll that supposedly shows Obama widening his lead over Romney in PA, OH, and FL was sampled at 32R/30D…and weighted at 29R/33D.
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Robert Morrow says:
Romney is Bob Dole all over again.
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Texian Politico says:
Bob Dole was Tom Dewey all over again. Romney is a better speaker and campaigner than Dole ever was.
Nate Silver has the best writing on the WI primary and he pegs Romney with an 88% chance of winning, but cautions that complacency kills and that Romney’s average of a 9 point lead over Santorum isn’t enough to consider it over in WI. Santorum has beaten a lot of his polling in previous states and a lot of the WI primary votes will come from rural areas outside of the Milwaukee metro area.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 2nd, 2012 at 10:01 am
Texian, Santorum is finished politically as is Gingrich for that matter. This is OVER dude.
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Texian Politico Reply:
April 2nd, 2012 at 12:51 pm
I agree with Silver. It’s likely over, but we still need the fat lady to sing.
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JohnBernardBooks says:
How funny…didn’t you say a Romney win in Iowa meant it was all over?
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