Public Policy Polling (TX): Romney leads Gingrich, Paul,
Public Policy Polling published its latest survey of Texas politics on Tuesday. Here are the numbers:
Texas primay
Romney 50%
Gingrich 43%
Paul 14%
Hispanic Voters
Obama 56%
Romney 34%
Young Voters
Obama 57%
Romney 35%
Tea Party voters
Romney 44%
Gingrich 38%
Evangelical voters
Romney 40%
Gingrich 45%
Perry Approval Rating
Approve 39%
Disapprove 53%
Independents
Approve 30%
Disapprove 62%
* * * *
Readers may recall the February UT/Texas Tribune poll in which respondents were asked whether they would support Rick Perry for governor in 2014:
Likely 39%
Unlikely 51%
“Very likely” 21%
“Very unlikely” 42%
The verdict of the poll was, “This is not the end of Rick Perry, but it is the end of Rick Perry’s invulnerability.”
The voters with the most intensity would not support Perry for reelection in 2014.
Anonymous says:
Gender gap?
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
Paul says: “The voters with the most intensity would not support Perry for reelection in 2014.”
And yet just watch this bozo end up getting re-elected as Governor in 2014 anyway.
With nobody of substance to challenge him, he will be re-elected by almost sheer default.
Who of any substance would oppose him?
Democrats can’t do it. They are too weak at this point in Texas history.
And no other Republican will run against him. (No, Greg Abbott will NOT challenge Perry for Governor in 2014). As for Kay Bailey Hutchison, please, don’t make me laugh.
And don’t forget that in the November General Election–unlike in the partisan primaries–a candidate can win without capturing 50 percent or greater of the total vote cast for a particular office. In some states such as Georgia and Louisiana, there are December run-offs if none of the candidates for a particular office garner at least a simple majority of the total vote cast for a specific office in November. But Texas does not have that stipulation.
So, bottom line, Perry wins again in 2014, and unfortunately for the rest of us, we continue to suffer with his presence.
Only the 83rd Legislature can save us from this outcome by either:
(1) approving term limits (best option); or
(2) approving a “sitting out” provision (next best thing and Louisiana and Virginia have long had this stipulation); or
(3) approving the use of December run-offs (weakest option) if no candidate receives a simple majority of the total vote cast in November (Georgia and Louisiana).
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Distinguished, those things will NEVER, NEVER happen.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
If the people of this state loudly demand that the Legislature take action on this issue of concern, the Legislature will be responsive to that demand.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Perry will pull a George Wallace and have some of the lawmakers’ pet projects taken away from them like roads, funding to schools, etc.,
Remember, then-Alabama Gov. George Wallace had threatened to cut off state funding to some of the lawmakers’ (who opposed his bid to stay in office) pet projects like funding to roads, schools, transportation, etc.,
Have you watched the TV show, Boss starring Kelsey Grammar ?
It shows you that it’s really based on Perry.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Then, Blue Dogs, it is more clear than ever that term limits, or a “sitting out” period, or December run-offs, are even more urgently needed in order to relieve us of such a tyrant.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Distinguished, 12 years is reasonable for TX governors, with a SITTING OUT PERIOD of waiting 4 years before seeking the old job again.
Dan C says:
The legislature is going to be controlled by the GOP. By the time it meets, the current school financing system will probably have been declared unconstitutional. We will be in the midst of nasty budget fights, especially if the right wingers win any of the primaries referenced in the Strauss post. There will be more contrived emergencies on immigration and abortion, etc. No way they will spend anytime trying to make it harder for Perry to win again. Get real.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
It all depends, Dan C., upon what the people do or don’t demand of their lawmakers.
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BaylorHeel says:
Hmm, PPP also shows Dewhurst at 38% and Cruz at 26%. I think its time to start taking Cruz seriously Burka…
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/04/cruz-closing-in-on-dewhurst.html
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Baylor Heel, I have yet to see any Cruz TV ads on television, all I’ve seen are Dewhurst’s campaign ads.
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Julie says:
I’ve talked with about 30 of my Republican friends who voted for Perry for governor in the last gubernatorial election. Not one of them wants Perry to run for governor again. I thought some of them would still support Perry, but they were all adamant about no longer supporting Perry. While my friends don’t constitute a poll, they offer a good idea, at least to me, that Perry is toast.
Some of them said they would skip voting in the governor”s race if Perry is the GOP nominee. Others said they’d vote for the Democrat, even though no one has any idea who the Democrats might field.
We all have heard that Abbott might run for governor. I haven’t heard a word, though, about what he would do about state budget issues. Would he be any better than Perry on budget matters?
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Julie, it shows you that Perry is LYING to people in saying he’s running, but he’s really trying to avoid an embarrassing legislative session in the spring and doing everything he can to avoid becoming a lame duck.
Second, your GOP friends do know that the Dems have NO chance in hell of winning the governorship in 2014 regardless who is the GOP nominee ?
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Cow Droppings Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 6:27 pm
You have to wonder what it is about this blog that lends itself to serial exaggeration. Maybe it is inspired by the author.
Julie the Republican, who reserves only criticism for Republicans but claims to be one, says thirty Republican friends who supported Perry no longer do.
Let’s look at statistical probability. Has Perry slipped with Texas Republicans? Yes. But in the worst case scenario, he still has a two to one fav with Republican voters.
So Julie takes 30 Republicans who supported Perry, and says 100 percent switched. If you took random Republicans, regardless of whether they supported Perry or not before, there is a one in three chance they are anti-Perry. To get to Julie’s 30 straight Republicans who are anti-Perry, you have to take 3 to the thirtieth power. So basically, the odds of Julie telling the truth are one in about a gazillion. And the odds of Perry supporters all becoming anti-Perry are one in gazillion to the second power.
In other words, Julie is a liar.
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paulburka says:
Couldn’t be any worse.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Burka, how long has this hostility towards Perry been going on ?
A. 2001 legislative session where he pissed off then-House Spkr Pete Laney and didn’t get along with him by running a hard-core partisan agenda.
B. 2003 due to the redistricting controversy and calling special session after another.
C. 2005: with his approval ratings tanking, he desperately gets some of the stuff he wanted.
D. 2006 elections, where he got only 39 percent (down from the 57 percent he had in 2002).
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Julie says:
I agree he couldn’t be any worse. But would he offer the same cuts only approach? I don’t know.
Do you know, Paul? Maybe you could fill us on on his views.
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Rich, white and educated says:
The fundamental problem is that Perry is dumb, and he has the ability to convince other dumb people to vote for him. And there are lots of dumb people in Texas. Deep down Perry understands very little beyond raw politics. Texas needs a technocrat as governor, not a vaguely feminine caricature of a fictional rugged cowboy past. But we won’t get a Mitt Romney with a legitimate pedigree and real experience solving complex problems. Those people won’t run because they have to go to the Fort Bend County Moron Club and answer to the JBB’s of the state. It’s much easier and fun to continue to make money and send your kids to private school and vacation in California and Florida and Europe. This state is gefukt.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 8:49 am
“e fundamental problem is that Perry is dumb”
Perry has left the stuck on stupid party, he is now a republican. Looks pretty smart to most voters.
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anita says:
Does it not signal a serious problem on the R side that Romney barely makes 50% when he’s clearly the nominee, with an also ran like Gingrich pulling in 40+?
It seems there’s some dissatisfaction with Romney among his own people.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
Anita, I have a strong feeling that Obama–for good or for ill–will be re-elected when all of this is over. True, he won’t carry Texas but it has been proven election cycle after election cycle that, yes, a President indeed CAN be elected in this country WITHOUT carrying the nation’s second most-populated state.
The GOP had a golden opportunity this year to unseat the incumbent President and the Party simply blew it through sheer ineptitude.
Good potential Republican candidates either didn’t run at all (or dropped out early, like Tim Pawlenty) and pathetic candidates such as those that we have had for the past few months stayed in it. It was a recipe for disaster for an R victory over Obama.
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Anonymous says:
Perry will be the VP choice…
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
If that happens, Anonymous at 2:49 p.m., then Obama is certain to be re-elected.
On the other hand, having Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, or New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, on the ticket as VP with Romney would have a much better chance of winning in November.
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