Public Policy Polling: Dewhurst 38, Cruz 26
My general rule about polls is to accept that polling organizations, including PPP, are good at what they do and they seldom get it wrong. That said, I think they got it wrong. I don’t think this is a twelve-point race. I haven’t seen anything, in the debates or anywhere else, to suggest that Cruz is overtaking Dewhurst. Cruz will likely get a boost from Washington groups that are supporting him, but in general, this is a race that will be decided by name identification and money, and I don’t see how Cruz can match Dewhurst in two categories. Dewhurst has a solid conservative record, while Cruz doesn’t have a lot of accomplishments to brag about. I’m going to stick with my belief that Dewhurst will win this race, but I have to concede that PPP’s numbers surprise me:
Dewhurst 38%
Cruz 26%
Leppert 8%
James 7%
If these numbers hold, the race is headed for a runoff on July 31, when any Texan with good sense will be out of the state, and only hard-core base voters will turn out. That’s the winning scenario for Cruz.
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More from PPP:
It is the furthest right segment of the Republican electorate where Cruz is gaining momentum. Among Tea Party voters, he and Dewhurst are tied at 35%. Dewhurst is winning easily, 41-20, with non-Tea Party voters. There is also a bit of a generational divide, with Dewhurst leading by 26 points among seniors but holding only a 6-8 point lead among younger voters.
Nice Expert Opinion, Paul says:
So, if I understand correctly, this poll is wrong because you say so. Hmmmm. I think you should go with your policy of trusting that experts do their jobs correctly.
The reality is that Cruz is just fundamentally a better candidate for conservative voters. Dewhurst is a lame rich guy w/ a weak leadership record. Cruz will be a leader in the Senate and clearly is talented enough to speak to our values.
Campaigns are changing … with this low turnout primary, the voters are going to be more conservative and more engaged. It’s very good for Cruz.
This one is headed to a runoff, Paul.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 9:19 pm
I will tell you who my candidate is: Lela Pittenger for US Senate.
She rocked the house at SD 14 and I believe she got a standing ovation with her delivery as an “abolitionist” not a conservative.
http://www.lelaforsenate.com/
That is my kind of gal!
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 4th, 2012 at 7:31 am
How about in the run-off between Cruz and Dewhurst?
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Victorious Secret says:
Ask the Ted Cruz campaign about their internal numbers that they sweep under the rug. This is the same polling firm that guaranteed a Perry/Hutchison runoff and purported a Perry/White tie…not so accurate in Texas.
Even if it were true, Cruz numbers will fall once Dewhurst’s attack ads sink in, and Dewhurst will comfortably pass 50% with millions of dollars in positive ads.
Cruz should have played in 2014 instead…
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Anonymous Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 9:45 pm
So Dave Carney (because that’s who you are), at least you noticed your error since you posted this almost word-for-word on facebook and fixed it. Good catch!
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Victorious Secret Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 9:30 am
I’m flattered, but I’m not Dave…if he were posting on this blog, it would be littered with spelling errors and full of insight. I’m just a lowly political junkie.
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Dave Carney Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
True I did not post then gem on this blog. But it is an enlightened comment never the less. PPP has a horrible track record in TX for some reason. Buyer Beware
Blue Dogs Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 9:43 am
Cruz needs to focus his talents in the Texas Attorney General’s race in 2014.
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Evan says:
This is basically a question of polls vs. experienced opinion. And I’m going to go with the polls on this one, given that the opinion doesn’t even have a Tom Friedmanesque anecdote to back it up. I’d need a conversation with at least one random blue collar working stiff GOP primary voter and one unnamed senior member of the state party before an expert opinion can trump a poll.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 7:07 pm
experience tells us a) PPP is a partisan Democratic firm with b) a history of producing outlier polls in Texas that were not only greatly different frim other surveys produced at the time but greatly discredited by election day results. They were so wrong on Perry Hutchison that should be on probation when it comes to polling Texas Republican primaries.
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Former Hutchison Staffer Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 9:50 pm
So the logic is that since PPP over-estimated the so-called moderate in the 2010 race, that using the same methodology, they over-estimated the so-called more conservative guy in this race. Is that it?
I’m as shocked as Burka about these numbers, but they’re not huge outliers if you put them up against the Texas Trib poll. Would love to see more though. Rassmussen or someone else.
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Harvey Soapstone Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 8:23 am
No one outside of Austin know who the hell Ted Cruz is. Dewhurst is an established good old boy brand, and will win with no runoff.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 9:43 am
Harvey, Dewhurst also benefits from having served in the military while the other 3 have NOT (needs to be a requirement) and has won 4 consecutive statewide elections: 3 of them by double digits.
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Vernon Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 11:55 am
Why should military service be a requirement to running for office?
Drazen Petrovic says:
Ted Cruz had $3.2M on-hand as of 3/31/2012.
Assume 20% of that is designated for the general or the run-off. He is asking for $7,500/clip.
That leaves $2.56M for the primary as of 3/31/2012.
Let’s say the campaign held back $200K in expenses for the report.
$2.36M.
Roll Call reports that Ted has spent nearly $550K on TV, the bulk of which was spent after 4/1/2012.
That would leave him with $1.81M.
Let’s say he has spent $200K on radio.
$1.6M.
His campaign recently did a non-fundraising direct mail. Let’s say they spent $200,000 at a minimum for postage, printing and design.
$1.4M.
Salaries/Consultants/Polling for April 1-May 29, $200K.
$1.2M
Online advertising? Let’s say $50K until May 29th.
$1.15M
Polling expenses until May 29th? $50K.
$1.1M
Is that enough to carry Mr. Cruz to the finish line? I think not.
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Really? Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 9:53 pm
So you’re just an ordinary guy who sits there and does all those numbers? Who just happens to have up-to-date ad costs?
By all means, keep living in denial. A smart campaign would assume the worst, but if you want to live in rainbowland, by all means do so. The fall will be hard if you’re wrong, however.
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Drazen Petrovic Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 12:13 am
Just a common man in uncommon times.
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Mrs. J. Jesse says:
Cruz is 100% on defense right now. Not a good sign for someone with no resources and no time
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Everyman Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Dewhurst staff is sh*tting their pants over these numbers. That’s why they’re running all the negative ads.
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Al Anon says:
Either Leppert knows something we don’t or he is going to start destroying Cruz soon.
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Jurassic Park says:
Dear Paul,
Wise words as usual… Chew on this for a moment.
1. PPP comes out with their 4th or 5th poll in a row showing Cruz on a steady and significant uptick.
2. Dewhurst’s staff begins shouting from the top of their lungs on every form of media “It’s PPP! they got the Guv race wrong! they MUST be wrong! Dewhurst is unstoppable, we’re already home and dry!”
3. Dewhurst’s campaign is running millions in hit pieces on TV on Cruz (oh, and seen those lovely push cards they have, oh so concise and classy, giving them to folks everywhere).
…Recalculating…
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buck says:
If young voters are going for Cruz, that means he muxt be getting Ron Paul’s people –
Those voters will not be back July 31.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 9:17 pm
They sure will …
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Hmm Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Would be interesting to see if Ron Paul stays on the ballot and the Paulites show up to make a statement and vote for Cruz too. I think Cruz has a shot at this either way, but that wouldn’t hurt.
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 4th, 2012 at 7:35 am
Ron Paul and Rand Paul are hosting a rally for Cruz at the capitol. I think their support means a lot in this race.
Helen Wheels says:
My faith in polls was greatly reduced by the automated polling call I got last night. After asking my opinion on a number of issues (unions, Obama, etc.) they asked which of the candidates I would be voting for in the Penn. senate race!
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Harvey Soapstone Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 8:25 am
Well, which one?
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Anonymous says:
Paul, have you ever left your office since 1975? I just ask because you seem to be the epitome of beltway (so to speak) tunnel vision. Reminds me of what Texas Tribune had on its “insider opinion:”
“This can’t be happening because we don’t want to believe it.”
If one poll gets it wrong, so what, but EVERY independent poll in this race, PPP or Texas Trib, has shown roughly the same story, that it’s a two-person race going to a runoff. Is it 12 points? Maybe not. There is a 4 point margin of error. But Paul, you’ve got to be willfully blind if you don’t think that Dewhurst is in trouble here. You’re supposed to be an expert political pundit, but you’re starting to sound more like Baghdad Bob.
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Astros Fan says:
Paul, aren’t you missing the bigger point? This is not about Ted vs. Dewhurst, this is about Dewhurst vs. 50 percent. Say PPP did a bad poll that showed Ted inflated, they still don’t have Dewhurst anywhere near 40 percent, which in your theory implies two different errors, since it’s not Ted who’s keeping Dewhurst below 40, it’s the undecides. Even if PPP overselected Cruz voters by somehow skewing the questions, that wouldn’t account for the latter number.
Look at it this way:
Total percentage represented in poll: 79 percent.
REAL poll results: Dewhurst 38, Cruz 26, UNDECIDED 21, Leppert 8, James 7.
What this shows is that Dewhurst’s biggest problem, for someone who has universal name ID, is that he hasn’t sold the deal on himself. That’s because Dewhurst has no constituency outside of Austin. He’s never built up a grassroots network the way Perry has, so it might be possible that a Tea Party star can sneak in and build one overnight that’s better than his. In fact, if you read the conservative blogosphere, Dewhurst is POISON among them (even worse than poison if you hear Glen Beck say it). So there’s even a good chance that many Cruz voters are really ANTI-DEWHURST voters.
This might get you closer to grasping the real questions: why can’t Dehwurst raise his own numbers to 50 percent? That, I think, is the ultimate issue Dewhurst is facing, and when you’re chasing 50 percent, not running away from Cruz (which is what Dewhurst should be doing), the LAST thing you should do is run negative ads that cost you 1 or 2 points for every 3 or 4 they hurt your opponent by.
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Scotia Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 10:30 pm
That’s funny. I’m an anti-Cruz voter, so I’m marking my ballot for David.
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Astros Fan says:
Oops. Said 40 when I meant 50. But you get it.
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Anonymous says:
Dewhurst has done nothing to deserve a promotion. In fact, many of the bills (SB 7, for instance)he cites as major accomplishments will prove to be complete disasters.
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Reality Check says:
Would you want to have a hispanic surname in a Republican primary? History would suggest not.
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Neverman Reply:
April 25th, 2012 at 10:59 pm
You’re an idiot. Anti-hispanic bias (if it matters at all) only counts with totally uneducated voters. Sure if they have no idea and see a Hispanic name, they might picture some poncho villa character with a bushy mustache and sombrero but they’ll have seen enough of Cruz by election time to see him as an individual and not a stereotype.
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Dave Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 7:26 am
The poll has 48% with an opinion on Cruz. Half of the voters don’t really know Cruz from Villa. Reality Check has a point, the question is whether there are enough undecided to get Dew to 50%.
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Harvey Soapstone Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 8:26 am
Ummmm. Look at our proud states last few governors races and how it turned out. Uneducated voters were the majority.
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 4th, 2012 at 7:43 am
Perhaps Dave should ask Congressmen Flores and Canseco and state Rep. Larry Gonzales about running in contested GOP primaries with an Hispanic name?
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longleaf says:
Dewhurst should be the nominee because of his net worth.
This is how the GOPers picked their presidential nominee, after all. They went with the guy worth the most. Makes sense, given the history of the party as the ardent defender of the 1 Percent against the mindless rabble of less well-off folks. Fortunately, since Ann Richards died, there are no more Texas pols to rouse the rabble. She wasn’t very good at it anyhow. We still need to erect more barriers to voting, though. Never can tell about the fickle mob. One day they may wake up. We don’t want to have to mow them all down with drones.
There is one viable political party in Texas (and there will ALWAYS only be one because that’s the way Texas politics works historically) and it worships wealth. The message for the untermenschen of Texas is similar to what NYTimes columnist Tom Friedman told the Iraqis as they were being shock-n-awed: “Suck. On. This.”
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Kenneth D. Franks says:
So it could go to a runoff if the poll numbers are close to correct. I went to my brother’s house yesterday he had just answered a political poll call and said it was the second one in two days. I have been polled twice also. One was a push poll by the Wayne Christian campaign and the other one I didn’t quite understand who was polling or just missed the disclosure.
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Blue Dogs says:
Burka, the PPP polls are OUTLIERS. I need to see polls from Rasmussen. Dewhurst will likely run TV ads 24/7 from now until May 29th-assuming he cracks 50 percent.
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Orale! says:
I’m calling it: Ted wins in runoff…… But then again it is still a long time til May 29th.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
April 26th, 2012 at 11:45 am
Orale, were you accurate in your 2010 TX statewide election picks ?
I do NOT see Cruz pulling a Rubio in Texas because there’s no Cuban voting base here and plus, Dewhurst has 4 statewide election victories in his belt including backing of the Establishment in Austin to boot and he has $$$ and lots of it.
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Anonymous says:
I am still in shock that the Cruz staffer team has no response for him defending a Chinese company, private lawyer, sure – who cares, but running for the Senate??? nice opposition research!
Where is Venable defending Cruz for representing a Chinese Company? hello?? that should go over well with the Tea Party
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Hmmm says:
Maybe they aren’t responding to it because it’s STUPID, Anonymous.
The Dewhurst campaign is desperately painting Ted as a trial lawyer (he isn’t) who represented a Chinese company in court (he didn’t). He was one of many lawyers with his firm involved with the post-trial appeal process – a normal, standard legal procedure involving 2 private parties in a high-dollar case. The end.
Dewhurst’s team has spent millions of dollars attacking Cruz, and it hasn’t made a bit of difference in Cruz’s support. This poll was conducted after they started attacking Cruz, for pete’s sake. Texas voters are perfectly capable of seeing it for what it is: desperation. I’m not impressed one bit with the way Dewhurst’s staff has run the campaign so far.
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Drazen Petrovic Reply:
April 28th, 2012 at 8:55 am
Ted was the Counsel of Record for the Chinese, you moron.
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