The Trib Insider predictions
I’m going to poach off the Trib predictions.
–Wentworth vs. Jones/Campbell
From the beginning I have been certain that Wentworth would win this race. What’s more, I think it’s important that he do so. TLR is getting too big for its britches. The danger for Wentworth is a runoff if Campbell gets enough votes. She has a strong right-wing following.
–The Senate race
This is another race in which I have never wavered. Dewhurst is going to win. Too much name I.D. and too much money. The Cruz campaign is a mirage.
–Chisum vs. Craddick
I’m going with Chisum. Newspaper endorsements matter in obscure races, and Chisum got the Morning News endorsement. More important, the industry is with him.
Kelly Hancock vs. Todd Smith
TLR is going to dump a ton of bucks on Hancock. If Smith can remain competitive in fundraising, it’ll be a fair fight. The interesting thing about this race is whether Perry’s endorsement will help Hancock or hurt him. Perry isn’t exactly a hot property right now.
Thanks to the Tribune for letting me play in your sandbox.
* * * *
What about other races coming up? The key House races are all about Straus chairs: Pitts, Eissler, Truitt. I don’t foresee any other upsets.
Khal Drogo says:
“The Cruz campaign is a mirage.”
I expect a May 30th barrage of Ted Cruz staffers clamoring to pen their tell-alls about the egomaniacal candidate and his nonsensical, counterproductive demands of staff.
At least he won’t be a credible option in any 2014 race.
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman says:
Don’t be so quick to assume that Wentworth is a shoo-in for re-election.
If it comes to a run-off, I can see Jones beating him in that run-off.
Reply »
Dollars and Sense says:
The Wentworth comment above is more hope than analysis.
Whether TLR merits success will not determine the outcome of the race. Which candidate has the means to communicate with targeted voters and turn them out to the polls will be a determining factor. Voters rarely know who is financially backing whom. Voters see TV ads and mail pieces.
Look at cash on hand.
Look at message.
Look at the target audience.
D and S
Reply »
Mrs. J. Jesse says:
Has Ted Cruz dropped the China client from the ad?
Reply »
Cow Droppings Reply:
April 27th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
I would rather drop dead than vote for Red Ted.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
April 30th, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Glenn Addison might be a good pick.
Reply »
AreYouKiddingMe says:
Hopson might be in trouble. Clardy is from Nac, and if they like him over there, he has a much larger voting base than Jacksonville…
Reply »
Jerry George says:
Don’t you think Ashby has a pretty good chance to beat Beck?
Reply »
TLG says:
Regarding Hancock v. Smith and the Governor’s endorsement: I live in that district and will definitely vote for Smith.
Reply »
Just another Joe says:
Burka -
As a suggestion for a future topic, I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts on some of the D primaries. Specifically, Tracy King, Lon Burnam and Alma Allen.
Reply »
brrrr says:
Hancock vs. Todd Smith has turned into priority number one for the entire education community. The charter/home school backers are doing anything they can to help Hancock, who will champion the “Taxpayer Savings Grants” idea that Grusendorf and TPPF are peddling to anyone that will listen. Smith is the favorite of all the teacher groups, who seem to be picking and choosing primaries quite selectively and waiting to play ball in the generals…
Of course, Todd Smith being a slick trial lawyer and Hancock looking like Joel Osteen might be all any good media person should need to win this one.
Also, Truitt, Pitts, Eissler: only one of those has a chance at being upset, and it isn’t the Chairman of Approps. You need better intel on that race Burka. How can you not list Tuffy as being vulnerable amongst the Straus Chairs? That is going to be a close one.
Reply »
Indi says:
Wentworth will probably win. Ames-Jones is just not that likeable. Even with millions in Tv buys. The one thing that gives me pause is that Wentworth has not bothered to set up a campaign website.
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman says:
Indi, if anyone is “not that likeable” clearly it is none other than Wentworth himself.
Let’s not forget his angry tirade (in the form of a widely-published letter, no less) in which Wentworth threw a childish tantrum that Brian McCall was selected instead of Wentworth for a good job with Texas State University.
That is just one example which should give every voter in Senate District 25 “pause”.
Reply »
Blue Dogs Reply:
May 1st, 2012 at 9:55 am
EAJ was an IDIOT for leaving the Texas Railroad Commission, she could have easily won re-election, but her ego convinced her to run for the US Senate and when that failed, she bolted from the RRC by resigning in the middle of her term and running for the State Legislature again.
Reply »
Hmmm says:
If the Cruz campaign is a “mirage”, how has Cruz closed Dewhurst’s lead from 29 points all the way to 12 points? How has Dewhurst spent $6mil+ on advertising, and gained no significant traction in every 3rd party poll conducted so far?
The answer, Paul – despite your insistence to stick your head in the sand – is that Dewhurst isn’t appealing to enough Texas GOP primary voters, which is why there will be a Cruz v. Dewhurst runoff this summer.
Honestly…how does a 10 year incumbent with all the money and name ID in the world not poll anywhere near 50%?
Reply »
Your Kool-Aid is Tainted Reply:
April 28th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Riiight…like when 10-year incumbent with name id Rick Perry never polled at 50% in 2010 and then handily won without a runoff?
The difference is that KBH was polling higher than Cruz, and Perry was polling lower than Dewhurst. Dewhurst’s situation is even better than Perry’s, and Cruz doesn’t have any money to change that. Even KBH had money!
Reply »
Al Anon says:
Ted Cruz is now claiming that he was not the lead counsel for the Chinese company.
What exactly does Counsel of Record mean, Ted?
His story has changed on this story at least five times.
Reply »
Drazen Petrovic says:
Dave Carney seems to be having a lot of fun.
Reply »
Alistair Overeem says:
Ted Cruz? More like Ted Crud. Texans know when they smell a rat, and Ted is a lying’ rodent!
Reply »
Cheik Kongo says:
Ted Cruz and the thieving Chinese go together like broccoli and beef.
Reply »
Indi says:
The most pathetic thing about the situation is that because we are a one party state with no competition, a small percentage of the total electorate will choose who leads the state. No legitimacy and no real representation.
Reply »
Jimmy says:
Truitt is in trouble. When the establishment candidate in the Keller City Council race (her home town) runs away from her as fast as he can, you know she is polling very badly.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
April 29th, 2012 at 5:23 pm
In that case, Hancocks in trouble.
Reply »
Robert Morrow says:
Study the JFK assassination in depth and one of the key names you will run into is CIA and Air Force General Edward Lansdale, who was the CIA’s expert on coups and assassinations.
He was photographed in Dealey Plaza and identified by his peers Col. Prouty and Gen. Victor Krulak:
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/USO/appD.html
Reply »
Robert Morrow says:
Here is the photo of Gen. Ed Lansdale just west of Texas School Book Depository:
http://derosaworld.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c7c7d53ef0128757b43c8970c-450wi
Reply »
Robert Morrow says:
Lansdale was probably running the field operations of the JFK assassination. Here is his bio at Spartacus:
He had a history of torturing people, killing people and black operations.
Oliver North modeled himself after Gen. Ed Lansdale.
http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/COLDlansdale.htm
Reply »
Commies for Cruz says:
Now that Robert Morrow has exposed the vast Kennedy assassination conspiracy he will have to be eliminated. Morrow should watch his back because you never know when the CIA is going to come get you.
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
April 30th, 2012 at 9:31 pm
By this time, tens of millions of Americans know the truth about the JFK assassination. The perps will never go to jail. Having said that, I think there are people alive TODAY in year 2012 that have criminal liability in the JFK assassination.
Some of the CIA anti-Castro Cubans, now in their 80′s who were on the field team, may be alive.
Another candidate for a planner is George Herbert Walker Bush, who says he can’t remember where he was on 11/22/63 despite being a US Senate candidate staying in a Dallas Hotel.
GHW Bush also gave a weird defense of the Warren Commission farce at Gerald Ford’s funeral in 2007.
Reply »
1st Time Poster says:
That Robert Morrow account is hilarious. Imagine someone actually posting JFK conspiracy rantings on random articles. Instead of parodying one person, you parody a whole subculture! Do you have a twitter account?
Reply »
Robert Morrow Reply:
April 30th, 2012 at 9:34 pm
I try to post a little nuggets on “old threads.” The reason I cover the JFK assassination so much is that it was a huge part of both American and Texas history.
And it is being inadequately covered in both academia (Robert Caro, Robert Dallek, Kearns Goodwin, name 10 others) and the media who helped to cover it up.
Prominent Texans (LBJ in particular) in politics, business and intelligence were the primary players in the JFK assassination.
Folks need to know about this. It was not the mob, Castro or the Russians.
Damn straight it was an LBJ-CIA-Hoover inside job.
Reply »