This number comes from pollster Mike Baselice, based on high turnouts in Harris County. I’m surprised, because I thought there would be a lot of apathy in the absence of a presidential race. This level of participation would be good for David Dewhurst, because it would indicate that a lot of people who don’t usually vote in primaries are coming out, as opposed to a smaller turnout, which would indicate that most of the voters are frequent primary voters.
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Not Sure About That says:
We’re at 2.2% statewide as of Tuesday evening. I don’t think we’re going to come anywhere close to that. Houston is a little higher though.
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The People's Elbow says:
Some candidates have stated that Tarrant County Republican turnout is down considerably. But you wonder how much of that is fact, and how much is that they are trying to turn their voters out.
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Umm says:
Texas Sec of State has early voting %s thru yesterday as follows: Harris 2.9% and Dallas 1.9%. That’s Rs AND Ds. That’s dismal turnout. Baselice has it backwards.
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The Mustache That Dare Not Speak Its Name says:
I think Dewhurst will prevail, though it may take a runoff for him to do so. Why? Because HE HAS BALLS CROSBY.
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Mike Baselice says:
FYI readers: I also told Paul that the Republican Primary turnout would be north of one million, but not to be surprised if turnout were to reach 1.4 or 1.5 million. So Paul was correct in utilizing the word “could” in the title. I also told Paul that 40% of the 2008 and 2010 turnout came from early ballots, but that the early vote we are seeing this year may be simply a higher percentage of the eventual total ballots cast, and that we won’t know the proportions of early to election day vote until midnight on Tuesday. Regards, Mike Baselice
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Just Another Joe Reply:
May 24th, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Mike -
Thanks for the clarification, but I am curious, are you speaking toward the R primary turnout or total turnout?
Because if you are speaking to just the R primary, then you are saying not to be surprised if more people come to the polls than in 2010, when our election calendar was not screwed up and we had a monster top of the ticket race in Perry versus Hutchison.
Mind you, you’re a lot smarter at this than me, but that just doesn’t sound right.
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paulburka Reply:
May 24th, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Thanks, Mike, for your contribution.
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Tellnitlikeitis says:
It will be interesting to see how the Memorial Day weekend affects turnout. My GUESS is that folks who don’t vote early might not get around to it on Tuesday….at least, not in big numbers.
Tuesday is back-to-work after a holiday weekend. Voting may not be part of the routine.
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JeffCrosby'sEscort says:
I want my last words to be “HE HAS BALLS CROSBY”
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Shredder253 Reply:
May 24th, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Once again Burka is full of no facts and is full of b……
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paulburka Reply:
May 24th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
I provided facts straight from the leading Republican pollster in the state. If you choose to ignore them, that is your privilege.
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Old Charlie says:
I think Mike Baselice is the best pollster in Texas. He will be very close.
He will be surprised that I began following his polling when Don Mauro told me to follow his polling because he was the best. And I agree.
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TellMeWhy says:
GOP Primary numbers
2008
Pres: 1,362,222
Senate:1,223,865
2010
Gov 1,484,542
RRC (Carrillo/Porter, that was good): 1,208,155
Say, oh, 1,225,000, just above drop off from last presidential.
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Joe Dirt says:
The smart money is on Dewhurst to pinch out a win without a runoff. His negative ad blitz has worked, from what I’m told. Dewhurst stepped up, paid his own freight and campaigned harder thane had to. You might say he has balls Crosby.
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Bodhisattva Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 10:35 am
I’m curious what you mean when you say Dewhurst “campaigned harder than he had to.” Really?
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paulburka says:
It’s going to be very close for Dewhurst. His own team estimated to me that their chances of winning without a runoff were 70%.
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 9:52 am
That’s crazy talk from his people. There are no polls that show him over 50%. Its going to a run-off.
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onthesubjectofDewhurst says:
You could say he campaigned harder. You could also say he spent $15 million of his own money. He’s avoided voters the whole time. Well, if he wins, good riddance. Let Washington deal with him.
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longleaf says:
In the post-Citizens United era, the U.S. now has a “one dollar, one vote” system. It’s what H.L. Hunt dreamed of and wrote a book about.
Texas is just an even more oligarchical version of the overall U.S. oligarchy. People with the most money are invariably better suited to rule over you than the Jeffersonian types. They have always believed this and now can practice it as political reality. And you can go pound sand if you are not one of them. Voting in such a system is irrelevant and even a waste of time.
There are a number of reasons the textbook reviewers at the SBOE hate Thomas Jefferson with a white-hot passion, but this idea he had of an educated, egalitarian electorate was the one that both the Bible bangers and the centimillionaire/billionaire types agree is UNACCEPTABLE. Both agree upon the DIVINE RIGHT OF MONEY form of government.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
May 27th, 2012 at 5:50 pm
You can’t limit the free speech of rich people. Sorry.
“Money” does not win everytime.
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George says:
I think Mike is right, as he usually is. It looks to me that early voting in the GOP primary is running ahead of 2008 levels in the top 15 counties, and 2008 was a strong year. Of course, no one knows who will show up on Tuesday, so these numbers might also be a very large percentage of the final total, as Mike says.
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SenateLadiesLounger says:
Most pollsters throw out the undecided at this late date assuming they will not be voting. So that converts Dewhurst’s 46% to really about 48.5% so he is almost there.
The amnesty radio might do the trick…
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anita says:
He’s following the Perry playbook to a T — drop race bait ad on last weekend. Cruz is toast.
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anita says:
By the way, looks like top early vote numbers are coming out of the Valley. Of top 15 counties, highest percentages are Hidalgo and Cameron, in that order.
Hidalgo’s numbers are twice the statewide average. Pretty impressive effort.
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