Public Policy Polling on the Senate race
The Tribune has the numbers:
Dewhurst 46%
Cruz 29%
Leppert 15%
James 3%
I was not a believer in the recent UT/Tribune poll that showed Dewhurst’s lead down to single digits (40% to 31%). I don’t believe that the race has ever been this close. The PPP numbers seem much closer to the mark: a hefty double-digit lead (+17) for Dewhurst.
At 46%, however, Dewhurst is in danger of being forced into a runoff by Cruz and/0r Leppert. He has two months, until July 31, to find the four percentage points that will enable him to avoid a runoff in what is likely to be a low turnout scenario in which most of the voters are from the Republican base.
As I see the race, Dewhurst still has the advantage, but Cruz has a lot of time to narrow the gap — two months. Remember the long lapse in the Sibley-Birdwell race that gave Birdwell ample time to overcome Sibley’s lead. Dewhurst is going to have to keep up a relentless attack on Cruz if he is going to prevent the challenger from forcing a runoff. Already, Dewhurst has had millions of dollars spent against him by conservative groups from Washington, and more will be coming. This is a national race now.
I listened to Dewhurst’s radio spot accusing Cruz of being involved with two organizations that support amnesty. The ad would be more effective if it identified the organizations. As it stands, it doesn’t have much credibility. As others have pointed out, Dewhurst is also calling Cruz a trial lawyer. This is not credible either. A trial lawyer, in the language of politics, refers to a personal injury lawyer. Cruz handles business litigation, such as the one involving China for which Dewhurst has been taking Cruz to task. We’re headed for a pretty dismal 60 days if this is the level of rhetoric we’re going to hear in the runoff (assuming there is one).
* * * *
PPP’s writeup on the race is very interesting, and it shows that Dewhurst is in a strong position:
Dewhurst’s 17 point lead represents a reversal of the direction the race had been heading in. Dewhurst started out with a 29 point lead in our polling last September but by January that had declined to 18 points and on our last poll, a month ago, it was down to 12. But Cruz has only gained 3 points over the last four weeks, while Dewhurst has seen an 8 point bump in his support.
Even if Dewhurst does get stopped short of 50%, his prospects in a runoff election look pretty promising. He would lead Cruz 59-34 in a head to head, mostly because Leppert voters prefer Dewhurst over Cruz by a 77-13 margin.
Dewhurst’s prospects look good whether his victory comes on Tuesday or later. But there is one finding in the poll that suggests some possibility for things to be closer than expected. 49% of Cruz’s voters are ‘very excited’ about casting their ballots on Tuesday, while only 27% of Dewhurst’s are. With voters who are ‘very excited’ about turning out, Cruz actually has a 42-37 advantage. That pro-Cruz enthusiasm gap won’t be enough to put him in first place on Tuesday but if he does force a runoff it could give him a fighting chance in a low turnout election further down the line.
Dewhurst has neutralized Tea Party voters, holding a narrow 39-38 advantage over Cruz with them. Meanwhile he’s winning non-Tea Party Republicans by a 30 point margin at 53-23.
Dewhurst has done everything he needed to do in this race. Neutralizing tea party voters is huge. Having an overwhelming advantage among Leppert supporters is huge. But there isn’t anything he can do about the enthusiasm gap. He’s not the type of personality who generates enthusiasm.
Robert Morrow says:
If this race goes to a run-off Dewhurst is in trouble. It will be fat cats vs. national conservatives and Cruz will have 2 months to overtake Dewhurst. That is a LOT of time to educate folks.
Either Dewhurst will win a run off 55-45% or he will lose it 48-52% but it won’t be a free ride in the park.
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Alan Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Last I checked, the national conservatives *were* the fat cats. I’d rather vote for a rich guy who can pay his own way than a TP errand boy like Cruz who will always be indentured to the FreedomWorks/Koch Bros/AFP crowd.
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Dewhurst is lying says:
Dewhurst knows he will lose a low-turnout runoff, that’s why they’re running race-baiting lying attack ads against Ted Cruz this weekend. A $2M buy over the weekend where they claim that Cruz is pro-amnesty (a complete falsehood) because he’s involved with an hispanic entrepreneurialism organizaiton called the Hispanic Alliance for Prosperity Institute. Totally shameful stuff. Anyone who is a conservative should vote for Ted Cruz. Everyone who is decent should vote for someone other than David Dewhurst.
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Rithmetic Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 10:00 am
Ouch! The Cruz campaign is obviously sensitive to this line of attack. What thin skin they have!
If you spend a year throwing poo at the wall with no facts to back it up, you can’t cry foul when attacks come your way.
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It's Race-Baiting Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 10:17 am
Yeah, they’re reacting. It’s a race-baiting attack on Cruz who is staunchly anti-amnesty. It is an offensive lie to the voters. It is an attack on Cruz solely because he is hispanic. Disgusting.
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Darny Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Bull.
paulburka Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Sort of like Cruz saying Dewhurst was for an income tax. Disgusting.
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Blue Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Yeah, that’s what pushed me to the Dew in the end.
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Texian Politico says:
This is headed to a run-off and Cruz will win in July. I disagree with your take that Dewhurst has done everything he needs to win this race. He’s ducked, dodged, and dived from the Tea Party and has largely run a Charlie Crist/Rose Garden-like campaign. I see a lot of folks I know that are active GOP voters that have come aboard for Cruz in the last month of so. I think he’s got the momentum now. The fact that the presidential primary race is over greatly hurts Dewhurst.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Texian, Dewhurst is the Miami Heat and Cruz is OKC, that explains why Dewhurst is launching TV ads non-stop.
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Anonymous says:
If there was any doubt that Dewhurst is basically Perry’s errand boy, look at this quote from the Texas Tribune article:
“All these attacks from outside groups, and what Ted Cruz’s campaign has been based on, is basically attacking Gov. Perry’s record. They’re shooting right through Dewhurst, to him. It’s attacking all the work conservatives around the state have done for the last nine years.” —Dave Carney, a top adviser to Dewhurst and longtime consultant for Perry, to Politico on the U.S. Senate race.
Tom Leppert is the only qualified person in this race to serve in the US Senate.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Perry’s errand boy ?
You need to look at the fact that the Lieutenant Governor is the most powerful statewide officeholder in TX state government who appoints the committee chairs, etc;
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Anonymous Reply:
May 26th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Was the most powerful
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ConservTexan says:
The Cruz camp is hardly in a position to accuse anyone of lying. Cruz started the entire trek down the low road last year by repeatedly claiming, all over the state, that Dewhurst favors a state income tax. When the now-ineffectual press printed that Cruz was full of BS, he merely doubled down on the accusation.
Then Cruz’s Club for Growth allies, obviously using Cruz research, ran a TV ad that Dewhurst backed a greater federal role in state health care. The reference was technically to a 2007 proposal restoring some Medicaid funds cut in 2003′s budget crisis. But the Club clearly wanted voters to think Dewhurst supported Obamacare.
Sorry, Cruisers, when you start down the lying road, you can’t complain when others follow.
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Big difference Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Big difference … Dewhurst actually came out and supported an income tax (admittedly, for a day) before his handlers reeled him back in. I never thought the China attack ad in return was that bad because there’s truth amongst the distortions.
This is fundamentally different. There is no connection between Cruz and amnesty. None. And he is on the record as being stronger on illegal immigration than Dewhurst. Yet they unveil this crap at the last moment to try to hit him because he has an hispanic name and they think it will work with uneducated voters. It is race-baiting and if it was happening to your candidate, you would be up in arms.
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Anonymous Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 10:28 am
Your income tax claim (lie) has been thoroughly exposed, examined and discredited yet you persist…shameful.
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Willie James Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Tea Party tactics……
Anonymous Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 10:26 am
It’s fair to say that Cruz-ers would savage Dewhurst if he were on the boards of the same or similar groups, regardless of race. That’s not race-baiting-those are pesky little things called facts.
Yes, the Cruzbots do scream when you start looking under the money rocks. Sensitive indeed.
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Go Away Dave Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 11:41 am
Go away Dave. Go spread some lies.
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Mr. B says:
“He has two months, until July 31, to find the four percentage points that will enable him to avoid a runoff . . .”
Mr. Burka, with all due respect, either you have a less than impressive understanding of the election process in Texas or your editing skills need some fine-tuning. Dewcrist actually only has until May 29 (a mere five more days) to find those four (or more likely 7-10) percentage points needed to avoid a runoff. If the Dew does not get 50% by the end of the day on May 29th, it is at that point the race goes to a runoff, advantage Cruz.
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Darny Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 10:38 am
One must have faith that the voters of Texas will break sheeplike tradition and make sure they send the better cndidate to DC. Sending Cruz would forever taint our state as a radical right wing loony bin.
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paulburka Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Mr. B seems to be better at math, or reading the calendar, than I am. Point taken.
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Come and Take It says:
Had Dewhurst not dodged all the debates, he would’ve won without a runoff. But he dodged all of them. People don’t trust people who dodge debates. Dewhurst now has a race on his hands, and it won’t be over until late July.
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Anonymous Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
He dodged all of the debates? Including the ones where we all saw him on television debating the other candidates?
Everyone needs to tone down their hyperbole a little.
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Willie James Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 1:49 pm
He dodged the editorial boards. The place the candidates receive real questions, not canned Q’s from party hacks.
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 2:28 pm
That’s true and that’s why even the Austin American-Statesman has endorsed Cruz.
Anonymous Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Do GOP primary voters really care about who got the endorsement of the Statesman?
The Real Reason Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Cruz won the statesman endorsement because he is in bed with the media elite. He is a hyperactive media candidate.
Blue Dogs Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Perry dodged debates during his 2010 reelection campaign against Bill White and still won handily by DOUBLE DIGITS.
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Esther, the maid. Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 9:58 am
Cowardice. Face the ed boards. Answer real questions. Perry and Dewhurst won’t face the folks that really know what questions to ask.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the Dewhurst versus Cruz animosity is Tom Leppert.
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Patriotone says:
Never laid eyes on Cruz. The only people I know who know him are people who have worked with him. They are non-ideological for the most part and just hard working people. Empty suit is the term I hear most often. Seen as one who takes credit for other’s efforts, which endears no one in a workplace.
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Tom Leppert's Ghost says:
“Empty suit” is the term Leppert’s consultants made up.
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3 Orange Whips says:
Actually from a voter turnout standpoint this would be even worse than the Sibley-Birdwell example as that was a general election (albeit a special election at a difficult time) where everyone could vote and this situation would just be primary voters. So many Texans, so few voters.
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Broken Tablets says:
Do these “Christians” even pretend to follow the Commandments anymore? Dewhurst and Cruz probably can’t recite them.
They both seek the seat of honor at banquets.
They both preen like peacocks and boast of their generosity.
And they both lie and give false witness by the $ millions.
Cruz likes to grandstand stating “If he’s ever accused of being a Christian he hopes there is enough evidence to convict him.” And his father is a preacher. The seed of Rafael has fallen on hard stone and appears destined to roast in the heat.
Dewhurst not only contorts the truth, he fashions lies out of whole cloth. Amnesty on Cruz? Hardly. And Cruz is not better shouting like a maniac to anyone who’ll listen that Dewhurst is pro income tax.
And their supporters…
Their motto is “Don’t bother me with facts. My guy is THE ONE.”
Blasphemous idolaters gazing upon shibboleths. The Lot of them.
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Tom says:
Good thing I don’t vote in the Republican primary. Tough choice between Cruz and Governor Oops blessing of Dewhurst.
Meanwhile, as our President said yesterday:
What happens is the Republicans run up the tab, and then we’re sitting there, and they’ve left the restaurant and then they point, ‘Why’d you order all those steaks and martinis?’
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Is that what B.O. is saying now? A few years ago it was that the Republicans were sitting around drinking Slurpees.
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Fiftycal Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Well, thank Bush for creating all those JOBS from the “stimulus” that Obama signed.
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Esther, the maid. Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 10:02 am
We can thank Bush for the wasteful wars, a tanked economy, ruined foreign relations. Mission Accomplished, GOP!
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Ida says:
Really?
He has two months, until July 31, to find the four percentage points that will enable him to avoid a runoff in what is likely to be a low turnout scenario in which most of the voters are from the Republican base.
WTF? Could you at least pretend to give a crap about quality control?
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Anonymous says:
Unfortunately, the insidious effects of many of these ads will continue to distort the truth. Political ads with no legitimate basis should be outlawed. Here’s hoping the average Republican can decipher through the deception.
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Willie James says:
The average Republican does as he is told.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 3:17 pm
“The average Republican does as he is told”
wow willie’s words of wisdom.
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Frodo says:
Cruz is married to a banker with a Goldman Sachs pedigree…. but he’s managed to pitch himself as the “tea party” anti-bank bailout anti-insider due to out-of-state money.
Cruz’s law firm ties to a massive international law firm and Ivy League background are far removed from the grubby hands of most angry lower-middle-class tea party activists, but he’s sold himself as their hero. Cruz is amazing to twist his own bio to fit the needs of a hungry tea party base. He has balls Crosby.
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John Johnson says:
In D.C. Dewhurst would be like a piece of furniture sitting in a corner collecting dust. On the other hand, Cruz is the slimy type of attorney who will take on any client if the price is right. Imagine how that translates to people buying votes in D.C. He will never get my vote. Leppert is the best candidate. Many Texans just don’t know him. Too bad. I’ll be placing an “x” by his name.
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Fiftycal Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 5:26 pm
So I guess you’ll just stay home and not vote during the runoff election?
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John Johnson Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 6:16 pm
No. I’ll vote for the piece of furniture.
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RINO says:
Palin’s robo-calls for Cruz decided this for me – anyone BUT Cruz. We don’t need more people who are in politics to be celebrities and who are not serious about policy.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 6:14 pm
RINO, Dewayne Wade can defeat Cruz, so Dewhurst can use whatever the Miami Heat are using because he’s gonna need every nasty TV ad from now until Tuesday.
Dewhurst is the ONLY person who has held statewide elected office (4-0 in TX statewide elections).
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Truman Sparks Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Voting for the Dew gets him out of Austin. He can do less damage in DC as the junior Senator from Texas. That is all.
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Blue Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Ah, yes. Because there’s no potential Lite Guv who is worse. (Cough, Dan Patrick, cough.)
You are a RINO Reply:
May 25th, 2012 at 6:17 pm
The name is so fitting. Get a clue.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
May 27th, 2012 at 5:07 am
Palin endorsed Rand Paul … very serious about “policy.”
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Anonymous says:
Patrick won’t win Lt.Guv. and if he tries, I look forward to his explaining to his Christian fan-base why he made a living owning bars. Or any other allegations that may arise for that matter..
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Robert Morrow says:
PPP: “Even if Dewhurst does get stopped short of 50%, his prospects in a runoff election look pretty promising. He would lead Cruz 59-34 in a head to head, mostly because Leppert voters prefer Dewhurst over Cruz by a 77-13 margin.”
Elections are not static. Give national conservative groups 2 full months to educate Texas votes on Ted Cruz and he could very well win. Ditto giving “conservative” grassroots groups time to organize in Texas for Cruz.
This race will tighten dramatically and be a cliffhanger at the end.
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Robert Morrow says:
The Dewhurst-Cruz race reminds me a lot of the 2005 Austin City Council race of Margot Clarke and Jennifer Kim. Clarke led in the first round of voting 40% to 27%…
http://www.co.travis.tx.us/county_clerk/election/20050507/enight_results.pdf
and Kim ended up winning the run off 53% to 47%.
Politics is not like horse shoes or hand grenades where “close enough” gets you the win.
Cruz has plenty of time for national and Texas conservatives to educate Texans on who to vote for – 2 months.
I just wish Cruz had endorsed Ron Paul … I bet he voted for him, though. As did Addison and Pettenger.
I always wondered why Texas had such weak conservative leadership at the top – Hutchison, Cornyn, Bushes, Perry, Straus – the whole bunch of them.
Nothing like a Jim DeMint or a Ron Paul or an old school Midwestern conservative not wanting to get in every war that comes down the pike.
I voted for Glenn Addison, but I hope Ted Cruz can vocalize the “pro-peace, pro-liberty” agenda and not just the social conservative agenda.
Wasn’t someone on this board griping about the alliance of social conservatives and libertarians in the Texas Republican party and how awful that was?
You are seeing that in the Cruz campaign and in a primary run off that is some potent medicine.
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Robert Morrow says:
Bilderberg meeting in Virginia June 5-8th. 15-20 years ago anyone talking about this would have been labeled “insane,” “nuts,” “conspiracy theorist.”
http://www.rt.com/news/bilderberg-power-us-obama-932/
There was and is a MSM blackout of this for decades. But internet gets the word out….
Now Facebook execs go to Bilderberg!
“Bilderberg’s high-power participants interact with, and are cross-represented on, the global private power web through membership and directorship in the Trilateral Commission, CFR, AEI, governments, corporations, banks, media and others.
Interestingly, also in attendance are founders and top executives of giant Internet management and intelligence gathering companies as Google, Facebook, LinkedIn and Microsoft.”
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Anonymous Reply:
May 27th, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Hey, Inspector Clouseau, how about taking your insanity elsewhere.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
May 27th, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Rick Perry and KBH both went to Bilderberg, didn’t they?
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Anonymous says:
Did u get any sleep last night, Inspector? You are really hopping around quite a bit. A little tough to stay on track? Why don’t u take a break? It will do u good. It will do us all some good.
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Anonymous says:
Why dont you lay off the ice.
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Ben Quick says:
I notice that none of the double Rs or TP Rs ever say anything about the Grover pledge – that somehow it is not irresponsible to say I will raise no revenue without knowing the situation – how can a businessman responsibly say I will never raise prices? Or cost will never go up as long as I am CEO?
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JohnBernardBooks says:
Why aren’t dems having a primary? When was the last time dems won an election in Texas?
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JohnBernardBooks says:
If Cruz wins its because dems pushed the primary date back to May 29th? Now thats funny….
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Robert Morrow says:
Drudge poll on Bilderberg:
Real Power Masters: 50%
False Conspiracy: 14%
A Little of Both: 36%
92,500 votes.
http://www.rt.com/news/bilderberg-power-us-obama-932/
I voted “a little of both.”
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Dave says:
For the record, PPP is right in line with early voting 47-29-16-4 vs 46-29-15-3.
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