Close races are the norm in redistricting years because candidates must communicate with large numbers of people they have never represented before. They don’t know their constituents and vice versa. The most effective campaign tool is direct mail, and candidates may not know what their opponents are saying about them and have no way to respond, especially at the last minute. We’re going to see some surprised candidates on Tuesday night.
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Robert Morrow says:
They know what their opponents are saying because their supporters get the same mailers and phone calls.
But last minute hits are another thing.
I think Dewhurst will be the one being surprised …
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Just Another Joe says:
Sounds like to me you are trying to walk back some of your earlier predictions, such as only 2 or fewer Straus chairs will lose.
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Kenneth D. Franks says:
I’m interested in all of the East Texas districts. Especially Christian v. Paddie, Hamilton v. White, Ashby v. Beck and a couple of others and there will be some surprises in a couple of these races.
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New Media vs Old Media says:
Markets are changing. Word of mouth is now, once again, king in selling a commercial product or service. Social networks have expanded and they allow people to share more of what they like and dislike.
This election will be a test of how much that effect has made its way into the political arena. Will a guy like Dewhurst be able to purchase the election with tens of millions of dollars? Or are people going to look deeper into their choice (simply because it is so much easier).
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Anonymous Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 10:11 am
Well, lets hope they look deeper. Spin is spin-however, with that being said, a candidate’s actual past cannot be undone.
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Gen. Sam Houston says:
Don’t want to encourage him, but…..
Would enjoy seeing Robert Morrow once again post his choices and predictions for today’s election. As I recall, two years ago, in the primary election, he listed who he was backing, and who he predicted would win. Every single one of his choices lost.
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Esther, the maid. says:
Do you think we will see any shift to the center anywhere in Texas? I keep reading about the Lation demographic shift and how it means the end ot the radical right wingers in our state. Will we see any signs of that shift soon? While I agree it is coming, is that 2-3 cycles away?
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Bodhisattva Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 10:07 am
Esther, even if a) the Latino demographic shift existed, and b)there was a one-to-one correspondence between its growth and the diminution of the Tea Party vote, c) you would not see it in the primary results.
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Robert Morrow says:
Early votes on Senate race; it looks like it is a run off:
RACE NAME PARTY EARLY VOTES PERCENT TOTAL VOTES PERCENT
U. S. Senator
Glenn Addison REP 7,035 1.59% 7,049 1.59%
Joe Agris REP 1,415 0.32% 1,414 0.32%
Curt Cleaver REP 2,122 0.48% 2,124 0.48%
Ted Cruz REP 126,424 28.65% 126,743 28.69%
David Dewhurst REP 207,097 46.94% 207,299 46.93%
Ben Gambini REP 2,296 0.52% 2,302 0.52%
Craig James REP 17,339 3.93% 17,348 3.92%
Tom Leppert REP 71,339 16.17% 71,345 16.15%
Lela Pittenger REP 6,059 1.37% 6,061 1.37%
———– ———–
Race Total 441,126 441,685
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