Endangered species list
These are the House incumbents whom I believe are in trouble as election day approaches:
Sid Miller — He blew a huge lead and now appears to be headed for a runoff. Incumbents seldom fare well in runoffs.
Jim Landtroop — Same story, second verse. An incumbent in a runoff.
Barbara Nash — Another member of the “incumbent in a runoff” club, with a district that is 80% new voters
Vicki Truitt — She is being challenged by Giovanni Capriglione, who ran a tough race against her in 2010. Truitt probably faces the biggest uphill climb of any incumbent
“Tuffy” Hamilton — Hamilton and James White are two flawed candidates; can Hamilton overcome TLR’s money and Perry’s endorsement of White?
Leo Berman — illness has limited his ability to campaign
Wayne Christian — the Texas Medical Association and Texas Association of Realtors PACs went all-0ut to defeat him; even so, early polling showed him doing well. High turnout in Harrison County (Marshall) could mean trouble.
Chuck Hopson — faces a strong opponent from the largest county (Nacogdoches) in the district. Going to be close–but Hopson’s races always are
Rob Eissler — late starter, slow to get engaged, but has finally pulled ahead
Lance Gooden — how much will losing his mayor’s endorsement affect his race?
David Simpson — conventional wisdom is that he defeats Tommy Merritt
Borris Miles — a re-re-rematch against Al Edwards in a race neither deserves to win
* * * *
The big picture here is whether a narrative will emerge from the results tonight, as one did in 2010. Then it was the destruction of the Democratic party. Is this year’s narrative going to be the takeover of the Republican party by the interest groups — Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Empower Texans, TPPF, the pro-life groups, the home schoolers, the tea parties? Or will it be a second round of purification piled on top of last year’s tea party sweep? The answer probably won’t become clear until the runoff elections on July 31.
Anonymous says:
I would add Marva Beck and J.M. Lozano to your list.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
What about Wentworth(less)?
Won’t we be rid of him soon?
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anita Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 11:24 am
Note that the post refers to House incumbents.
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anon says:
And Lon Burnam, as if it really matters.
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Various says:
Would like to see predictions on state senate, Congress and RRC as well…
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paulburka Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Making predictions in congressional races with new district lines and little name identification with voters, not to mention a double-digit number of candidates, is not something I would undertake. Anyway, the days when it meant something to be a member of Congress are over. Now it’s just about posturing and demonizing the other side, for both parties. I voted but I don’t have any expectation the person I voted for will be any different from any of the others. There are about four members of the GOP delegation who have some visibility — Barton, Sessions, Hensarling, Lamar Smith. Congressman is the worst job in politics.
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Polling says:
Polling suggests Christian is going to be fine.
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Pat Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 11:47 pm
Aaaaaaand they called it for Paddie.
We’ll soon learn if thats better, or worse…
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paulburka Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Election results suggest otherwise.
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Anonymous says:
“Vicki Truitt — She is being challenged by Giovanni Capriglione, who ran a tough race against her in 2010. Truitt probably faces the biggest uphill climb of any incumbent”
You keep saying this and the numbers just don’t show it. I realize this year is “different”, but Vicki certainly doesn’t face the biggest uphill climb of any incumbent. It is also my understanding (but not certain) that Capriglione is a multi-time loser for local races as well. What is your basis for thinking Vicki is in such turmoil?
State Representative District 98 – 2010
Giovanni Capriglione REP 3,902 23.03%
Rich DeOtte REP 2,212 13.05%
Diane Thorpe REP 2,002 11.81%
Vicki Truitt REP 8,824 52.08%
———–
Race Total 16,940
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Anonymous Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Does anyone know what her opponent does for a living anyway? Very mysterious..
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anon Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Why, because he has an Italian name he’s somehow “mysterious”?
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Anonymous Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
No, because he has only $25,000 and is supposedly in the finance sector. He sounds unemployed.
paulburka Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
This is 2012, not 2010.
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BurkaKnows says:
Burka knows and has his contacts.
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The People's Elbow says:
There was one Burnham v. Vasquez poll done a month ago. Burnham had a comfortable lead, but I imagine that is a pretty tough district to do a reliable poll in.
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The Most Interesting Man in the World says:
He schedules appointments to sleep with the fishes, my friends.
Stay thirsty!
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Truthseeker says:
The only “polling” that is being discussed in Austin regarding Wayne Christian’s race comes from David White and his group of misfits – they did this ridiculous Robo-poll.
The Paddie side made the decision not to plays that game in Austin and focus on the district. I look for Wayne Christian to get swamped in Harrison County badly enough that he cannot make u the ground he needs in the rest of the district. Paddie has a good ground game in at least two of the other counties and it should be close to a draw in those counties (Cass and Panola).
There just aren’t enough votes left in the rest of the district for Christian to eek out a win.
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anon says:
Good — Christian needs to be retired, again.
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Anonymous says:
I heard he was fine. Unfortunately.
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Anonymous says:
Is that Wayne Christian (R – Beach House) of whom you speak or the one who “lives” in that district?
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Anonymous says:
“Going to be close–but Hopson’s races always are.”
But mostly in general elections. Hearing that Nacogdoches has seen much better turnout than Rusk or Cherokee County in early voting.
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Bud Kennedy says:
Capriglione’s watch party is at the nicest Hilton in the district.
That tells me something–
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Anonymous says:
If they were that confident, why not have it at the Marriott in Westlake?
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Banana Republican says:
With deference to Godwin’s Law, talk about your Night of the Long Knives . . .
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Anonymous says:
Why do home schoolers have clout
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Robert Morrow Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 10:43 pm
It is important to them. It involves their kids who they care to spend a lot of time with. They are organized.
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Anonymous says:
Because home schoolers vote and are incredibly well organized – even if many believe that dinosaur bones fell from space.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
May 29th, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Homeschoolers were key to electing Sen. Tom Coburn in OK in 2004. Made up a lot of his volunteers.
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texxas cynic says:
Gaahhhh… Texas voters are as crazy as the candidates.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 5:07 am
Texans just aren’t smart enough to vote for dems.
Dem lawsuits elect Cruz.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
Which is precisely why we need term limits, texxas cynic. Sometimes voters must be saved from themselves.
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Kenneth D. Franks says:
39 vote difference between Paddie and Christian right now according to The Texas Tribune.
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