Straus posts solid win but chairs struggle
Straus’s margin of victory was of landslide proportions. Despite having more than $100,000 spent against him, and a blizzard of negative mailers, he cruised to a decisive victory over Matt Beebe.
But the big story of the election is the carnage that befell Straus’s chairs. Vicki Truitt, Tuffy Hamilton, and Rob Eissler lost. All three defeats were self-inflicted. Truitt had accumulated too much baggage; Hamilton was lazy and overconfident; and Eissler was slow to engage or to spend money. Two other Straus chairs, Sid Miller and Chuck Hopson, now find themselves in runoffs–never a comfortable position for an incumbent. Miller blew a huge lead and was lucky to recover sufficiently to make a runoff. Hopson, a dogged, never-say-die campaigner, was the one Straus hand who overperformed. He almost won a race outright against a strong candidate from the biggest county in the district. In several cases, the losers have no one to blame except themselves.
Members of the Straus team are going to be unsettled by what happened. This election reminded me of 2006, when Craddick lost five seats to Democrats, and that was the beginning of the end. The troops have to know that somebody is in charge. It’s not good enough to say that the losses were self-inflicted by candidates who ran poor campaign. It’s up to the leader to know who is running poor campaigns and to do something about it. That didn’t happen.
There will be immense repercussions from these races. Straus is weakened, make no mistake. Another speaker’s race is already under way. The runoffs are going to be crucial; the anti-Straus forces are organized and well funded, and the Straus team must do a better job of handling these races. They have to know who is for them and who is against them, and what kind of races they are running. One thing in their favor, as they see it, is that their allies did well in races for open seats, but several face runoffs.
It is hard to know what Straus’s ultimate objective is. Does he really want to serve a third term as speaker? Do his ambitions lie elsewhere, such as a congressional seat? He could probably succeed Lamar Smith in Congress without breaking a sweat, but serving in Congress is one of the lousiest jobs in politics. If he runs for another term as speaker, he will have to face the likelihood that he will be leading a divided House. It is highly unlikely that he could run for statewide office and win. There is too much built-in opposition in his path — some of it due to ideology, some of it due to religion. It is unfortunate for Straus that the state and his party have swung so far to the right in recent years that there is almost no impulse to govern in the Republican party. Straus would like to govern, but in the present political climate, it’s not possible.
Just Another Joe says:
Take a look at the 4 county DFW metroplex, Paul, and tell me again that Straus “allies did well in open seats”. Lot of open seats up there and, less the race to replace Jim Jackson, Lot of work for Straus to do.
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Texian Politico says:
I’m shocked that “Tubby” Hamilton was “lazy and overconfident.” Who wudda thunk it?
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Anonymous Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 9:28 am
You remind me of the Democrats in New Jersey who mocked Governor Christie for his weight.
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Lance Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 10:19 am
Lol… It cost White and his shadow PACs a million dollars to win this race… Tuffy messed up by limiting his campaign to areas of Hardin County. Tuffy won Hardin County by a landslide as I predicted. The Tea Party has been grooming people in this district for now over a year. White is vulnerable to future attempts. I just don’t see this kind of money ever rolling into the district again. There may be another round in two years. White’s views on budget cuts hurt the district’s largest constituency groups.
If anyone lost last night, it was Distict 19… White is just a RINO (Representative In Name Only), as he will be blackballed this next session… The Texas Republican Party is in serious trouble for allowing extremist to divide the party. I have always said East Texas isn’t as extremely right as people make it, history and the future will prove it. The loss of Christian last night only helps drive that point home. I have to agree with Paul that Tuffy ran a lazy campaign.
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Anonymous says:
Dead on Paul!
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100 Year Decision Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 11:39 am
Agreed. Our stare, particulary the GOP’ers, need leaders not ideological party hacks.
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Jesus Straus says:
My cousin Joe will take his millions, and Eissler’s unspent $650,000, and deliver victories in the runoffs. TLR supports him for speaker over Hughes, so you House Rs be careful signing on with Hughes.
Then after one more session, my cousin Joe will run against Perry for Governor. Or against Wentworth/Campbell for state senate.
And he’ll win whichever race he chooses. Right now, he’s the strongest of the three leaders heading into session (Gov, Lt Gov, Speaker).
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Lance Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
I think what ever happens, most of us are going down to Specs liquor and buy a bottle. By the time this next legislative session arrives, the legislature will need to overhaul the Texas Alcohol laws to stop the wave of alcoholism coming. It’s time for the Texas Republican Party to enter into rehab.
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Plato says:
I agree with “Jesus Straus”. Paul has got this one all wrong. Straus is in good shape…maybe even better. He now has a few more chairs to hand out. Phil King will get Tuffy’s old chair if he behave’s himself.
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100 Year Decision Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 11:57 am
Phil King is the surviving Fred Brown.
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paulburka Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
I can’t imagine Straus giving anything to Phil King.
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Anonymous says:
Paul,
Can you give me an idea of how you define “governing?”
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Tom says:
The only thing worse, in Texas, than being labeled a liberal democrat is being labeled a moderate Republican.
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tuffy's ghost says:
i didn’t run a lazy campaign. i had great consultants, 30 mail pieces, tv ads and 50% of my old district. what’s lazy about that?
the voters simply rejected me.
philip klein (lance), thanks for your help, but you don’t no shit about politics. go back to being a wannabe cia agent, or whatever you think you are.
i had to learn the hard way that i’m not charlie geren. speaking of charlie, if he ever asks you to move districts, don’t do it.
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Lance Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
I don’t know if I should laugh or cry about you calling me Phillip. All I know is it’s time to hit Spec’s liquor and get me a bottle. This next session will surely bring in a wave of alcoholics. There will be lots of new alcoholics made from this race. The Republican Party will end up in rehab before the year is finished. This race was more about opportunist than anything. I guess you missed the boat on why TLR was even involved. Like I said, I’m headed to the liquor store, you can blog me after I wake up from celebrating. Don’t drink the Cool-aid, drink the liquor.
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Chairs struggle? says:
Yes, Truitt-Eissler-Hamilton lost. But so do did Christian-Berman-Beck.
Sid and Hopson came in first, and now head to runoffs. Here are the rest of the chairs:
Pitts smokes his three opponents.
Deshotel no opponent.
Hunter no opponent.
Coleman smokes his opponent by 75 points.
Guillen no opponent.
Pickett no opponent.
John Davis smokes his opponent.
Larry Taylor wins senate seat against Mostyn w/o runoff.
Keffer no opponent.
Wayne Smith no opponent.
Callegari smokes his opponent.
Branch no opponent.
Geren no opponent.
Raymond no opponent.
Smithee no opponent.
Oliveira smokes his opponent by 25 points.
Senfronia no opponent.
Ritter smokes his opponent.
Kolkhorst no opponent.
Jones McClendon no opponent.
Cook smokes his opponent.
Phillips no opponent.
Dutton no opponent.
Hildebran smokes his opponent.
This is nowhere near “chairs struggle.” Chairs dominated and laid waste.
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paulburka Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Tell that to Eissler, Hamilton, Truitt, Sid Miller, and Hopson. Three losses and two runoffs sounds like a pretty serious struggle to me.
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paulburka Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Furthermore, who cares what Christian-Berman-Beck do? They are bit players. Eissler, et al are lead actors. Make that “were.”
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Honey Badger Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Straus’s chairs had a MUCH easier time than Laney’s chairs after redistricting, and than Craddick’s chairs did every cycle. Straus’s chairs did superbly.
Eissler didn’t campaign hard and sat on $650,000.
Truitt is arrogant and supported tax hikes.
Hamilton had TLR after him…and Hamilton is Hamilton (not going to elaborate).
Hopson was a Democrat four years ago and lost 70% of his district. He should’ve been trounced.
These races are more about the individual dynamics and have very little to do with Straus.
Neither Hatfield nor McCoy Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Eissler losing is incredibly significant. No one saw that coming, and the fact that Straus was too busy “helping” the likes of Tuffy, Delwin, and Merritt while fending off a challenge in his backyard to protect one of the men responsible for putting him in the Speaker’s chair is telling.
And Solomons retiring after being badly used by the Speaker, and Sid Miller now in a final battle for his political career after shunning his fellow conservatives for the “glory” of carrying marquee legislation at the behest of the Speaker….those are signs of weakness. Whether it’s a mere hairline crack or worse doesn’t matter. It’s damage.
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Jesus Straus Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 7:58 am
So a candidate refuses to spend $650,000 and doesn’t hire a consultant and that’s my cousin’s fault? I’m guessing that the Astros inability to win the World Series is my cousin’s fault too.
The R margin went from 76 to 100 in my cousin’s first term as Speaker. And it’s about to go to 102-48.
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Anonymous says:
Point well taken and sustained
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Bay says:
The real question is whether anyone will lead Texas toward making the investments in water, transportation, and education that we need to compete in the future. The answer is dismally obvious.
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Plato says:
All the outsider’s just want there to be a speaker’s race so they’ll have have something to talk and write about. It’s kind of like in 2011 when there was really no speakers race…folks on the outside built it up to be something that it was not.
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Can't spin the facts says:
Eight of those chairs are democrats, so there are ways to drive a wedge between them and leadership. Straus lost 5 in the election(Sid and Chuck will lose their runoffs) and lost Taylor to the Senate. Smithee and Kolkhorst have their own independence and are not really part of the Speaker’s “team.” Either could effectively challenge him if they chose to and would probably have chairmanships under a new speaker if they broke away. Hilderbran has expressed that he isn’t “loyal” to Straus and would consider an alternative if viable.
That leaves Pitts, Hunter, Davis, Keffer, Smith, Callegari, Branch, Geren, Ritter, Cook, & Phillips. Of those, Davis, Smith, and Callegari are not treated like the others. Meanwhile TLR has a big target on Hunter for his TWIA/Mostyn connections. (Oh, and the Governor doesn’t like Straus either).
Meanwhile, lest we forget, that Solomons was swapped for Ron Simmons, Todd Smith was swapped for Stickland, Nash for Krause, Madden will (probably) be swapped for Leach, Klick could replace Hancock, Keffer could replace Hartnett, Nguyen could replace Jackson. All of these are at least marginal losses for the Speaker.
The point is, he is not going to come anywhere close to 75 with just Republicans. He’s going to have to go to the dems, and that creates its own danger. He has the power of incumbency, but this was a very bad night for Straus.
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Anonymous Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Are you basing this on some level of insider knowledge? Because it doesn’t come close to what I’ve heard directly from some of the members you’ve named here.
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Neither Hatfield nor McCoy Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Oh come on. Hilderbran’s like every other senior member who has survived the changing of the guard several times over – he’s loyal to whoever promises a committee chairmanship so he can fundraise for his statewide ambitions.
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Plato says:
“Can’t Spin the Facts” I guess you consider speculation facts? I bet you never even laid eyes on the people you speculate about.
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WUSRPH says:
I don’t know how the Legislature is going to survive without Leo Berman to tell the members what hideous diseases illegal aliens are spreading in our midst and to question everyone’s birth certificates or without Christian to tell them all what a “real conservative believes” on anything and everything. But all is not lost. Debbie Riddle will still be there to protect us all from “anchor babies” and to guarantee our god-given rights to illegal alien maids and lawn boys.
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wait, what? says:
DUDE: Sure Straus won, and won big, but he spent more than a million, was forced to blockwalk, campaign heavily in the blazing sun at polls, and in the final weeks had to have TAB’s BACPAC and CLEATPAC do a disgusting smear campaign with a media buy more than $250k.. and you think the fact that the TFR guys dropped some coin to settle old scores is the only fact worth reporting?? Oh, wait, I forgot. This is BurkaBlog
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Neither Hatfield nor McCoy says:
Straus definitely has higher ambitions. The usual line is that he’s waiting for Lamar Smith to retire and slide in as his anointed successor. The chatter lately, though, has Straus gunning for the governor’s mansion. Of course, Straus’ statewide favorables are nearly non-existent. But he did once say he had no intention of serving as speaker for very long. It will be interesting to see.
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Bill says:
What goes around comes around. Let’s not forget that Straus held is own little coup just four years ago, ousting Craddick with a handful of moderate Republicans and a whole lotta Democrats.
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Jesus Straus Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 7:52 am
That coup wasn’t my cousin’s.
But my cousin (and a few other Rs) did do well enough in math class to realize that 75 votes means you won’t be Speaker, so he showed up at the meeting of the top 10% of Rs in math acumen, to pick an R speaker. Lots of other Rs were invited that didn’t show.
Paxton and Hughes and Craddick are in the bottom 10% of math acumen, but Hughes did well in english, Paxton did well in law, and Craddick did well in finance.
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Truthseeker says:
Paul, Chuck Hopson’s problems stemmed from redistricting; when he agreed to take Nacogdoches he was given a bad hand. His current political problems do not stem from Straus other than the map he was given.
And Sid Miller’s problems are well documented and go way back prior to Straus. Besides, Miller is in a run-off with a candidate who will also support Straus if he wins – so this hardly makes this race worth factoring into Speaker politics.
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Plato says:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FF30niBi3xE
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Matt says:
I am still so sick and tired of the straw man argument about people not liking straus because of his religion, and see you snuck that in. I am a proud TEA Party Conservative and not one single person I know cares that he is Jewish, nor did one single person I know even know that he was before it was publicized. We don’t like him because he is a liberal, and governs as such. His Committee assignments are exactly what we “right wingers” told you was going to happen. He is simply not going to be Speaker again, and good riddance.
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Republican says:
Matt…thank goodness you are in the minority. Straus is a staunch common sense conservative. There is a difference between Republicans and Libitarian people like you who are trying to invade the party and would have us go back to the stone ages. And, yes he simply will be speaker again and good riddance to you Libitarians. You are not Republicans.
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Lance Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Re: Republican
You are 200% correct. The TEA Party is a Libertarian movement, funded by Billionaire Libertarian, David Koch. I hope Matt does his homework and Googles in David Koch (Tea Party) and anyone else before they try to justify their point.
If you think rightwing ideology is the way to go in this country, try moving to Iran. Their form of Government is very much to the right. Rightwing ideology will end up killing the Republican Party in this state. Sometimes a person can go too far to the right, such as movements like Al Qaeda. People like Matt are just clueless to the fact they are being used as a tool and there is no true Grassroots movement in the Tea Party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Political_parties_in_Iran
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Realist says:
Straus will be fine…remember, it takes 76 votes of the entire membership. Straus will have enough votes for one last session. Craddick needed Democrat votes to be Speaker and that is not lost on the membership. And, few expect Straus to be (or want to be) the Speaker after this next Session. Many in the tea party and far right need Straus to be the Speaker for another session to keep their movement alive and financed. There will be further retirements after this next session though and there will be a real speaker race during the following interim. Several of the retirements this interim were well-timed for their own personal reasons. And, the few who lost in the primary will be fine and probably quite happy after they watch what a waste this next session will be in time and effort for the few who actually wanted to get something done to govern the State and solve problems. Perry will not allow the the Senate or House members to really govern anyway.
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Republican says:
Good comments Lance! You are exactly right.
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