Dewhurst falls short of the magic number
If there was one refrain I heard from the Dewhurst camp, it was that they wanted to win without a runoff. But they didn’t make it. From the start of the evening, it was pretty clear that Dewhurst was going to fall short. The closest he got was 47.3%. Hours earlier, Cruz had said that if there is a runoff in the Senate race, he would win. Why? Because the voters who would return to the polls after a two-month layoff would be those who are the most engaged in the ideological causes Cruz cares about.
Texian Politico says:
I’ve said all along this race was headed for a runoff despite insane talk from the Dewhurst forces saying there was a 70% chance he would win without a runoff. I’m continuing my prediction that Cruz will win this race. Dewhurst went scorched earth to destroy Leppert and Cruz in the end and avoid a runoff. It didn’t work and now he’s in huge trouble. Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, and his lobbyist friends won’t be able to save him.
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Ida says:
Remember how hard to believe it was that Dewhurst was only leading Cruz by 11?
http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/?p=12782
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paulburka Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 10:11 am
Yes, it was hard to believe. Dewhurst’s attack ad on Cruz may have backfired.
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Blue Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 11:06 am
It was enough for me to stare at the two names for a bit before deciding to go with the Dew…I was a pretty strong supporter before then.
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Jurassic Park says:
Paul,
Please don’t say Cruz will win now… I want Cruz to win.
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Bill Weed Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Please reconsider. Cruz is too far radical right and the threat of him winning may motivate folks to vote the runoff. One hope women will come out to vote for Dewhurst.
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Robert Morrow says:
How about that Donna Campbell “win” vs. Wentworth? She has to be considered the favorite.
And that James White win over statesman Mike Hamilton.
And Ron Paul’s showing in Travis county preinct #352 Covington Middle School which also voted #358 (formerly Boone). That is where I “GOTV” ed on Tuesday. Check out the “pop” from early voting to primary. Yes, I am bragging.
http://www.co.travis.tx.us/county_clerk/election/20120529/files/20120529reppct_10.pdf
And Ted Cruz on down 11 points. I rate that race a 50%-50% coin flip.
And now, national conservatives have 2 full months to educate Texans to pick Cruz over Dewhurst. Dewhurst is a nice guy, but his politics suck.
Ron Paulers could be critical in a Cruz victory. Cruz needs to come out pro peace and anti-war; that would energize the Paulers to unite with the social conservatives.
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
That’s good work on your part. That’s a huge increase, but unfortunately for Paul and his forces it was only a small handful of votes. There weren’t any Paul signs at my pct yesterday and that surprised me.
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Tom says:
Crazy Republicans deserve Dewhurst vs. Cruz, but the State of Texas comes out a big loser no matter who wins.
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anita Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 11:01 am
Very true.
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100 Year Decision Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 11:36 am
Ditto. But Texas politics under the GOP is always about the lesser of two evils.
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Watchems Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 1:02 pm
In this case, though, it’s the evil of two lessers.
Tom says:
Let’s not forget this race pits the Tea Party favorite vs. Rick Perry.
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Lance Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
In no way will this race be Perry Vs Tea Party. The Tea Party is not a real movement. Perry will just call David Koch and ask him If he can pull his support. Tea Party people are so naive to think they are running the party.
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Lance,
You are dense. The Tea Party folks have never said they are running the party, but they are electing candidates by going up against establishment forces. Cruz will be very well funded for the run-off and there is nothing Perry can do about it.
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Willie Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Tea Party folks are sheep for the shearin’….
anita says:
I think the headline sums it up well — but only the first 3 words are necessary: “Dewhurst Falls Short”
He’s been out-matched and out-hustled. He is, in the end, just a dull guy with money, without the personality or skills to connect with Texans.
He should have been content as a Land Commissioner, got his burial site in the State Cemetery and a nice add to his obit. He’s out of his element.
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Vernon Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
I thought being rich, dull and lacking in people skills were per-requisites for the US Senate! HA HA! HooHooooo! Ba-Zinggg!
Oh yeah! See what I did there?!
I took some perceived negative qualities about one candidate and ironically applied them to an entire body of elected officials as though those same qualities were somehow positive. It’s comedy gold, I tell you. GOLD!
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Tattler says:
It is awesome that Ivy League and international law firm hero Ted Cruz wins… as the outsider! His wife’s pedigree at Goldman Sachs mattered nothing to the Tea Party gang… they’re all pals now against Dew.
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Willie Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Teabaggers are sheep. Nothing matters to them….until THEY need it.
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Lance Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Amen… The Tea Party is just a tool to take advantage of pushing a no tax issue. As I said before, the Tea Party people are so naive to think they run something. Hand them a copy of the constitution and they think they are Thomas Jefferson… They think the special interest printing off all that high cost printing propaganda really “cares about the small people.” The Tea Baggers need to wake up and demand a paycheck for being employed as special interest lobbyist and agents for some ultra wealthy people. Maybe if they get paid, they can fix up the trailer park.
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texasslm Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 12:08 am
Willie —
What is this thing you’ve got going on with sheep? not that there’s anything wrong with it, of course …
strange.
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Anonymous says:
Your obsession with the anti TLR rhetoric ignores other significant developments. No commentary at all on Mike Jackson. The guy gets well under 40% in most of the pcts he’s represented in Harris County for 15-25 yrs. Stockman represented a virtual handfull of those precincts for 2 years and makes the run off.
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Anonymous Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Maybe he’s obsessed with TLR because they run everything, including Empower Texans.
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anita Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Perhaps the voters of Jackson’s district finally realized that he’s a dolt.
His exposure to his own electorate probably worked against him. They likely realized what most in Austin have known for years — they’d be better represented by a squirrel guard.
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TexRusk Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Are you talking about Jackson or Dewhurst?
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Jesus Straus says:
If you don’t work hard in the state senate, you end up gaining weight.
If you gain weight, you end up spending triple time getting dressed.
If you spend triple time getting dressed, you spend less time with your constituents.
If you spend less time with your constituents, you underestimate how much they dislike you.
If you underestimate how much they dislike you, you think you’d be the perfect one to represent them in Congress.
If you think you’re the perfect one to represent them in Congress, you finish third in the primary.
Don’t finish third in the primary.
Work hard in the state senate.
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Nicely put, just like those tv ads. Ha.
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Robert Morrow says:
Steve Stockman – he beat 42 year incumbent Congressman Jack Brooks and 20+ year incumbent Mike Jackson, and puts out a press release saying he has gotten rid of 60 years of bad government!
I really hope the Ron Paulers help this guy.
“36th District (southeast). Stephen Takach, a financial adviser, and Steve Stockman, a former Representative, will compete in a runoff after topping a 12-candidate Republican field. No Democrat is seeking this heavily Republican district, which takes in some suburbs of Houston and a small part of the city. Takach had 22.4 percent and Stockman had 21.8 percent.”
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Texian Politico Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Stockman will win it. If you look at Takach’s website there is ZERO about what he’s done as a conservative, but a bunch of fluff about being some investment guru. Stockman’s website needs a lot of work, but the voters can see his track record and substance on the issues.
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Anonymous says:
Wasn’t Stockman in congress for one term. That one term occured about a decade ago. The geography he represented during that term was almost entirely outside of the current district. According to Texas Tribune, he spent very, very little in this race. He beat Mike Jackson. Why isn’t this one of the biggest stories of election night ?
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Anonymous says:
Excuse me, Stockman’s single term in congress was almost 2 decades ago.
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Honey Badger Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Wasn’t Stockman the guy who while in Congress received faxes from the Oklahoma City bombers before the bombing took place?
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anita Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Yes, and he did nothing with them, didn’t think to send them to the FBI or other authorities.
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Anonymous says:
I was not aware of web-sites being the tool that measures a campaigns success. Hmm, guess I better research that.
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John Johnson says:
I admit it…I’m a dummy. Not as smart as I think I am. Kinda like our governor.
I thought the radical right voters of Texas had caught on. I thought that they had pulled their heads out of the sand when the gov had his meltdown in front of the nation, and when the national press started quesitoning his pandering to Big Money and special interests. I thought they might start paying attention, do some deductive reasoning, and break away from the old trunk to tail, follow the leader mentality. I was certain that many would reevaluate and make a move toward sanity, statesmanship and civility.
No such luck. We can look forward to more of the same…only worse.
Congratulations MQS. Congratulations, Mr. Weekley. What fine webs you weave.
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Dan C says:
Is the runoff only open to those who voted in GOP primary yesterday? Or can anyone who did not vote in Dem primary vote?
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Susan Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 10:09 am
Anyone who did not vote in the Democratic Primary is allowed to vote in the Republican Runoff.
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Mofus says:
WOW! What a great runoff choice for Texas- a rich, 1%-er or a tea bagger! So, at the end of the election cycle, we will have either two, 1%-ers in DC or a 1%-er and a “1850′s know-nuthin’” tea bagger in DC representing ………Us “real” Texans? Sad, sad, realllly sad for poor ol Texas that this is the best we can do……
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TexRusk Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Based off your statement, I don’t think you know what a “real” Texan is. Memo to Mofus: If the majority of Texans vote Conservative and you’re a loony granola-eating hippie in Austin, you’re not a real Texan.
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anita says:
Keep in mind the bizarre position taken by Ted Cruz — he wants to turn the clock back a century and take away your ability to determine who your United States Senator will be. He has announced his support for repeal of the amendment to the US Constitution allowing for the direct election of Senators, placing this authority in the State Legislatures to pick senators. So he wants you to vote for him so he can take away your right to vote for him or anyone else for the position.
When do the adults show up?
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Anonymous says:
What adults? If I was a Republican, I would be fed up with what’s going on.
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