When in doubt, produce an internal poll
I can’t believe the Dewhurst campaign resorted to the old internal poll gimmick. Accrording to the Statesman, Mike Baselice has written a memo indicating why Dewhurst will defeat Ted Cruz in the runoff for U.S. senator:
Recent internal campaign polling found that Dewhurst has a 65 percent favorable rating compared to 40 percent for Cruz, Baselice wrote. And Dewhurst is heavily preferred by voters who backed former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, the third-place finisher.
With 85 percent of the precincts reporting, Dewhurst was leading with about 45 percent of the vote while Cruz had nearly 34 percent. Baselice said that number bodes will for Dewhurst.
“While we should expect a normal post-election tightening of numbers, history demonstrates why Dewhurst is in a strong position to become U.S. Senator: every Republican candidate with over 43 percent going into a statewide runoff during the last 20 years has gone on to win,” Baselice wrote.
Well, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twenty times, shame on me. The Dewhurst campaign has made too many claims about why a Dewhurst victory was inevitable without backing them up. The only poll that matters is the one that will be taken on July 31.
That Dewhurst has a higher favorable rating than Cruz might have been important several months ago. It’s not important any more. And the argument that every Republican candidate with over 43 percent going into a statewide runoff during the last 20 years has gone on to win cuts no ice with me either. It’s like saying that the sun is a two-to-0ne favorite to shine on a clear day. But what if it is a cloudy day?
Doesn’t the Dewhurst camp realize that this ploy is not going to persuade anybody of anything, except that there is panic in the Dewhurst camp?
I think the Dewhurst team made some bad decisions down the stretch. One was the anti-Cruz amnesty ad. It had no credibility, and it was gratuitously mean. Another was aligning himself with Rick Perry. Maybe Baselice ought to be polling what Perry’s favorables and unfavorables are these days, and just exactly what the governor’s endorsement is worth. I daresay a Perry endorsement for Dewhurst is break-even at best. Do they think everyone has forgotten the presidential race?
Nor do I think it was wise to run an attack ad against Leppert right before the primary in an effort to drive down Leppert’s vote total. Dewhurst needs Leppert’s endorsement in the run-off.
Having the lead is an asset in this race, and Dewhurst has it. But shenanigans like this will only serve to further undercut his credibility.
Evan says:
In a Cruz v. Sadler race for Senate, who would Dewhurst support?
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Old Guy Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 4:46 pm
What kind of question is that? Dewhurst would support Cruz & vice versa.
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anita Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Dewhurst may simply go fishing, not support anyone. Could you blame him?
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Jurassic Park says:
Welcome to Earth Paul. We’ve been wondering when you’d get here.
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jph says:
I read it as an attempt to mollify donors – “hey, you’re not throwing your money away, we really will pull this out.”
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Anonymous says:
which donors? Tricia signed a prenup…
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Anonymous Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Pre-nups are the best thing since light beer. Go get one!
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Hill Country says:
Paul, can we interpret this post as backing away from your earlier predictions / postings that this race was a “slam-dunk, cake-walk” victory for Dewhurst?
Cruz might have a chance after all, huh?
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paulburka Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 5:14 pm
The main factor that has changed the race is its timing. The late primary date gave Cruz a chance to raise his profile and get on an equal financial footing with Dewhurst.
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Pat Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Yesterday’s turnout was in line with historical averages. Runoff turnout will be anemic. Accordingly, the momentum is with the grassroots, a la Bonilla-Rodriguez in December ’06.
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paulburka Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 8:22 am
The “grassroots” in Bonilla-Rodriguez was Bill Clinton coming to San Antonio to campaign for Ciro.
Just tired.... Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 11:01 am
Paul….that late election which gave Cruz the runoff was caused by, of course, redistricting in the courts. I wonder how some of those establishment Rs now feel about that?
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Ida Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 1:27 pm
The timing of the election had already changed when you were pumping up Dewhurst’s position using internal polls — that is, about two weeks ago.
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The Ghost of Sam Houston says:
The late timing, in the dead of summer, also argues in favor of the candidate whose supporters are most passionate. This will be an election with historically low levels of participation, so turn out is everything. Tea Party voters are nothing, if not motivated.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 7:33 pm
the argument for low turnout on July 31 sounds perfectly logical on its face. Everyone says it, so it must be true. Lord knows Paul once argued half the Republican electorate is on vacation in Colorado in July, shedding their winter furs.
But people forget one thing — whether it is May, July, or Festivus — a US Senate seat is something party voters actually care about. An open seat is a rare opportunity.
So all you saying only cromagnons will show up, mark it down — turnout will be 80 percent of primary night on the Republican side. Traditional Republicans will shed their fur coats, and homo sapiens tea partius will leave a trail of monkey hair from here to the ballot box.
Bluehurst and Red Ted is about to become a bonfire.
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Vernon Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 10:42 am
First of all, we all know that Cro-magnons traditionally don’t vote, particularly they don’t vote in primaries. I think we all remember in 1992 when State Sen. Ted Lyon spent $350K trying to “corner” the Cro-magnon vote…and he got, what, 3 votes? A young Florence Shapiro knew better and capitalized on his mistake. The rest is history.
Secondly, by their nature cromagnons have views so radical and outside the mainstream that virtually no candidate wants to associate themselves with their agenda. Honestly, who wants to be known as the man who authored the bill to enact the state-sponsored genocide of all Neanderthals? Yeah, because that’s what they want.
Oh, and “a trail of monkey hair”? Racist remarks like that will ensure that the fastest growing population, Simian-Americans, will run from your party. Don’t be surprised in 2020 when banana subsidies increase by 200X and poo throwing replaces football as the most popular high-school sport.
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longleaf says:
So I get that Cruz will win this.
Is he going to be one of these fanatics who is constantly trying to reinvade Cuba as his main issue?
I don’t think that act will play for very long among Texans. Most of the people around here, who are ag types, are wondering why we still have an embargo against them? They see Cuba as a lucrative market.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 7:25 pm
no, but he may not recognize a French Quebec.
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TexRusk Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Have you even been paying attention to the race? Ted isn’t promising to invade Cuba, he’s promising to invade Washington.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Like Bilderburg just did?
John Johnson says:
Hold your nose and vote for Dewhurst. You know that he is going to do nothing dynamic. He’s not going to be a deal maker or an arm twisting, charismatic consensus maker. He will, however, be predictable. A team player. A bore.
Cruz, on the other hand, is a shady, gun for hire who has shown that he will prostitute himself to earn a dollar. Isn’t this the bottomline in his representing a Chinese company that stole and implemented proprietary tire designs from a U.S. company? There is no denying that he chose to represent them, is there? They were convicted of this crime, were they not? Think he might sell out to earn a buck in D.C? Others have. Lots of opportunities…and already too many like him up there.
Play it smart and go with the neutered lap dog…not the dirty, wretched cur who could very easily turn and bite the hand that feeds him.
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Pat Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 7:10 pm
I’m not holding my nose when I vote for Dewhurst. I’m voting for him enthusiastically. Lord knows we need to get him out of the Texas Senate.
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noone Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 10:16 am
Isn’t this the sentiment of just about everybody involved in state government? My God, it’s been like 10 years of the same fat asses sitting in the same wornout seats. And now it looks like the Dew is gonna blow it. Please, Mayor Leppert, do right by Texas, forgive the man and endorse him!
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Blue Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 5:14 pm
I’m sure Lt. Gov. Duncan will make everyone very happy Dewhurst is gone!
Honey Badger says:
Dewhurst will be 78 in only his second term. Electing him is just electing a junior senator who’ll serve two terms then be replaced by another junior senator.
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Anon100 says:
Baselice is usually right. His polling nailed the Dewhurst victory over Sharp. Also, he gave up his polling of KBH to stay with Perry years ago. Smart,smart,smart. He polls on facts, not emotion.
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end of the road Reply:
May 30th, 2012 at 10:21 pm
wow….is that you you Rick Perry?…if not has to be Toomey….
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TexRusk Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 6:38 pm
If Baselice was right, why did Dewhurst start attacking Cruz when his internal polls (from Baselice) showed that he was already (supposedly) over 50 percent?
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TellMeWhy says:
Anon100: have you been following current events?
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Beerman says:
I’ve said it many times: Perry is as dumb as a box of rocks, and his national attempt proved my point. His support, at this time, may be a problem for Dewhurst. What a bunch of idiots!
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Robert Morrow says:
And here is another question:
Who says Dewhurst will win a “large turnout” primary run-off?
This run off looks to be a coin flip to me.
And I will be supporting Ted Cruz. In fact, my one single vote might be THE deciding vote in this race …
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Anonymous says:
Watch Leo Linbeck. If he moves in Cruzs’ direction, I’ll take Cruz. According to Opensecrets.org, his daddy has only given the Dew a $1000. Why so little? If Leo stays neutral, I’ll take Dew. Michael Sullivan merely takes credit for what Leo Linbeck funds. Pay attention..
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Lisa Marie says:
Dewhurst has been planning a move to the senate for years. Its awful of his team to drop the ball like this at this stage of the race, but I am now questioning Dewhurst’s real political savvy. For one, he’s been struggling with a solid (and not transitory) campaign team forever. But most importantly, he hasn’t hired people to show him how to be a retail politician. He’s not awful looking — but his demeanor is Frankenstenian. He’s been fighting this thing for years and it is the flaw of Texas state politics to deliver weak politicians to the national stage. Dewhurst, Perry, these are folks that generate a lot of clout in Texas small game, but choke like 5th graders on a spelling bee the second races heat up. I was a Dewhurst supporter, but his weakness to clutch this race gives me the willies. He won’t get anything for Texas in the senate.
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Blue Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 5:16 pm
It’s not his savvy I question, generally. It’s his willingness to be something other than a dilletante.
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Anon Reply:
June 1st, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Dewhurst has terrible political instincts. He was successful in 2000 in part because he let his campaign team actually manage the campaign. Twelve years later he has convinced himself he is a political expert and is making many of the strategic decisions for his campaign.
He micromanaged the Texas Senate into the ground and is doing the same thing with his U.S. Senate camapaign. It is a pity…. he has good policy instincts and could make great contributions as a U.S. Senator.
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Texian Politico says:
This is a good post. I agree with Burka 100% here. Dewhurst has made some poor decisions in this race and it will haunt him on July 31st. There is now no love lost between him and the Leppert folks after the last minute attack he launched to try to sink Leppert and get over 50%.
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Jesus Straus says:
Dewhurst never, and I truly mean never, shows up sooner than an hour late for a scheduled meeting. For all of you who’ve worked with him, you know what I mean.
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Blue Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Snicker.
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Naconowhere Reply:
June 1st, 2012 at 8:39 am
And late is rude. Dewhurst is by far the rudest person in Texas politics today. Can’t he ensure that his valet and driver get him places on time?
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JohnBernardBooks says:
Two messages sent in the primary election:
The Tea Party is a force, ie Ted Cruz’s surge, and stop wasteful government spending.
Did spending deaf politicians like Speaker Straus receive it?
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longleaf says:
The message is to end the public school system via taking the requirement for one out of the Texas Constitution.
When you have 80 to 90 percent of the people in the dominant party demanding voting for “school choice,” it’s over. This is just a euphemism for privatization.
In retrospect, it is amazing that in the 1870s there were prominent Texans drafting a document that promised something for “free.”
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 10:30 am
and the caterwauling begins…..
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anita Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Actually, it was 1836 when a free public school system was requested of Mexico, and we fought a war for independence with this as a rallying cry. We spilled blood for this. When we became a republic, we dedicated land for this, land used to this day to educate our children, free of charge.
The issue long pre-dates it’s inclusion in the 1876 Constitution.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 8:40 pm
last I looked no one from the republican party had a problem with the constitution. The voters just don’t dems and what they done to the education system. Time for change and not the hopey changey bs kind.
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longleaf says:
I’m not sure what “caterwauling” means. I’m stating reality as I see it. I have no “dog in the hunt” or “skin in the game.”
I don’t vote, but the ones that do are clearly stating they have no further use for public “gubmint” schools.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 1:02 pm
“I don’t vote, but the ones that do are clearly stating they have no further use for public “gubmint” schools.”
or maybe they are “prochoice” and want to spend their tax dollars where the education is better than they are currently getting.
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Anonymous says:
Remember this: http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/?p=11802
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Anonymous says:
How much did the Perry endorsement hurt Dewhurst?
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Mofus says:
Again-
What a great runoff choice for Texas- a rich, 1%-er or a tea bagger! So, at the end of the election cycle, we will have either two, 1%-ers in DC or a 1%-er and a “1850′s know-nuthin’” tea bagger in DC representing ………money or Texans?
Sad, sad, realllly sad for poor ol Texas that this is the best we can do……
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Anonymous Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Most if not all of the U.S. Senators are in the top 1%. The 1% ranking begins at $344,000. Its not that much.
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anonymouse2 Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Check Rep. Doggett’s wealth stats. A year ago he was the 48th wealthiest member of Congress.
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Gen. Sam Houston Reply:
June 1st, 2012 at 8:39 am
Are you referring to Cornyn as a 1%-er? A couple of years ago, he was among the bottom five of 100 Senators in personal net worth. Doubt that has changed much, if any, since then.
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Check, Please says:
The political class will go door to door for the Dew if need be, as we want him out of our Texas Senate so badly.
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Anonymous Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 12:45 pm
We can do worse.
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Blue Reply:
May 31st, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Or better. Duncan would be better.
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Anon Reply:
June 1st, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Yes, Dan Patrick would be worse. I’ll bet 30 of the senators would concur.
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Blue Reply:
June 1st, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Dan Patrick will hold state office one day.
anita says:
Paul, I hear you that an internal poll is a tired move, but the Dew’s folks have to do something to pump up their people, and they have a limited hand of cards with which to play. They need to give their people something to grab ahold of, and try to stem Cruz’s momentum.
Cruz is a nut, but he’s playing the Dew like a cheap guitar.
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Pri-ista says:
It’ll be pretty cool to see Parker beat Smitherman.
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Anonymous says:
Anita,
I was reading Gail Collin’s new book on Texas last night and I’m convinced you ghost wrote it. I mean that as a compliment.
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Hyena says:
Wow, the mismanagement of the Craig James endorsement. To string everyone along all day like it was a big deal, and then roll out CJ proves that the Dewhurst campaign is being run by morons right now. So funny. Even the reporters are making fun of them. What a joke.
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anita says:
That’s no compliment.
I met her a year ago or so here in Austin at some event. She’s horrible.
As a Texan, I have a serious problem with folks with no connection to our Great State talking trash about us.
It’s kinda like someone talking bad about your sister. I can, and often do, talk bad about my sister. But if someone from outside the family chimes in, shotguns will soon be involved.
Texans are wonderful people. Our political leadership sucks. Collins doesn’t distinguish between the two.
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Willie Reply:
June 1st, 2012 at 10:12 am
True, this.
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anita says:
Paul, just to keep you up to date in your home county, local Republicans lost one of their finer elected officials on Tuesday, Con. Pam Matranga:
Pam Matranga ousted by GOP voters
Pam Matranga, the Galveston County constable who, according to a sexual harassment lawsuit, forced a deputy to motorboat her, gave the world such awful vaginal euphemisms as “duck taco,” and was caught on video allegedly peeing in a park, has lost her primary re-election race.
WHAT MORE COULD SHE HAVE DONE FOR YOU, GALVESTON?
Matranga managed to get only 39 percent of the vote, with Rick Sharp getting almost 52 percent, enough to win without a runoff in for the GOP nod for Precinct 7 constable.
Matranga has said the harassment lawsuit was an election ploy, although she did allow that she was “a jester, I am not a girlie girl.”
“I can only be accountable for any role I may have played,” Matranga said on her Facebook page after the election loss. “I am sorry for any embarassment this may have caused any of you. I am going to be fine, I am fine….I hope the bashing of me can end now.”
–Yep, sounds like Galveston alright — pb
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MissPriss Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 10:33 am
So funny!!! Matranga thought she could not be beat. Never even bothered to campaign and get out and meet people. I live in the area and never had even heard of her till the election. I guess it forced her to try and step it up a little. A little but not enough.
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TexRusk says:
Most interesting stat I saw was that Dewhurst was up 17 in early voting, but only 3 on election day. That may be somewhat attributable to older voters showing up for Dew, but even if you consider that, Cruz was gaining ground at the end, and presumably, is still doing so.
I think Dew shot himself in the foot with the amnesty ad. For once I agree with Burka on this, and I welcome his belated skepticism. Yes, this was Dewhurst’s race to lose, and he is doing his darndest to do so.
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BaylorHeel says:
I think this tweet by Erik Erickson says it all.
Craig James bled dry by a bunch of consultants and then endorses Dewhurst after getting 30K votes? I bet I know where his consultants went.
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John Johnson says:
Dewhurst should not stand too close to James or act too chummy. Many sports fans might decide to switch their votes from him to the attorney who sells himself to Chinese crooks.
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Bill51 says:
If you really thought this, you’d have a lot less to write about: The only poll that matters is the one that will be taken on July 31.
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CJK5H says:
An endorsement from Craig James is a joke.
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Bob says:
I have received mailer after mailer of each Republican candidate claiming he/she is CONSERVATIVE. They all say the same thing. Whoever does the most credible job making this argument now wins.
Cruz became the more credible conservative with endorsements from Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum. He also benefitted with positive coverage from FoxNews.
Dewhurst had Huckabee and Perry, not enough to overcome a lot of press coverage indicating Dewhurst is a moderate. The dye is cast. It is now a GOTV game. Advantage: Crews.
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