Senate race looks like a rout for Cruz
I had a conversation with a source in the Cruz camp, who spoke on background. Their latest poll, with which the source was familiar, was taken on Sunday night, and showed Cruz with a double-digit lead and everything trending in Cruz’s direction.
The Cruz campaign polled only people who had actually voted in the May 29 primary. They did not poll Republicans who did not vote in the primary. “We’re missing that universe,” the pollster acknowledged. “We only wanted 2012 primary voters.” Here was his crucial point: Based upon the numbers in the internal poll released by the Dewhurst campaign, Dewhurst would have to get 90% of the “missing universe” to win the election. And that defies the law of probability.
The pollster said that after the primary, nothing was moving for either candidate for three weeks. From late June until early voting for the runoff, the race was static. The TV ad war did not move votes. The debates did not move votes. The race was close until the Wednesday night before the runoff. That was when the Cruz camp saw that voters were becoming more attentive, and the electorate started breaking for Cruz, and the momentum was all in his direction.
Distinguished Gentleman says:
Go, Ted, go.
This should be a lesson to all future candidates about taking negative advertising too far, as Dewhurst foolishly did this year.
If you stop and think about it, long before May 29th, it was actually none other than the Dew himself who drew attention to Cruz, thereby (albeit inadvertently) granting Cruz much free name ID that Cruz would not have otherwise gained. Were it not for the Dew’s constant attacks on Cruz, this could easily have been a run-off between Dewhurst and someone else–or no run-off at all.
Dewhurst literally made Cruz the victorious candidate that Cruz will be today (again, albeit inadvertently).
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Polled Out says:
So the Cruz’ campaign internal poll has more validity than Dewhurst’s internal poll?
We’ll know tonight.
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paulburka Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 2:21 pm
I don’t warrant the validity of any poll, just that if Dewhurst’s numbers are valid, and so are Cruz’s use of them, then Cruz should win.
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Anonymous says:
I keep hearing “Are you ever gonna make up your mind…” when I read this blog.
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curious says:
what about the july 6 poll cruz released? if everything was so static how did he get up 9 then?
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Nick says:
Dewhurst’s message is a mess. An ad on last night during the Olympics was a rant against the Feds, then he said he would TRIPLE the size of the US Border Patrol. Maybe I’m overestimating people’s intelligence, but surely most people can see how that’s pretty muddled messaging.
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West U Voter says:
I didn’t decide until I got in the voting booth this morning. I talked to a lady who gave money to Cruz but voted for Dewhurst. Cruz may win but I don’t think in a landslide. I lot of people are like me and have gone back and forth; both candidates have pluses and minuses.
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Jerry Only says:
“Dewhurst 6-8 pts”
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Tucker says:
#Cruz
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BackUpMembers says:
Puke.
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Jorge says:
I told you so !!
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Bert-n-Ernie says:
Cruz uses a pollster nobody in the GOP uses unless they are a right wing nut. Polling for the Super PAC helping Dewhurst conforms Dewhurst’s numbers.
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Anonymous Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Speaking of Dewhurst super-PAC, is there a more overrated hack in Texas politics than Rob Johnson.
Can’t wait for the tell all book about the Perry presidential to come out.
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Vaughn Building Janitor Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 3:42 pm
A tell-all Perry camp book would tell the tragic tale of Joe Allbaugh, his treachery, and his borderline senile stupor. Someone would have to translate it into grunts for him to understand it and for Bill Miller to prepare a response for the manchild…
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Anonymous Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Ha, I see the long knives are still out for Allbaugh. He is the scapegoat for Team Perry aka the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight
Robert Morrow Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 7:55 pm
A tell all about on the Perry campaign would examine the critical role that a delusional Anita Perry played in insisting that the Charge of the Light Brigage proceed full apace.
Anonymous Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 4:29 pm
I would add Josh Robinson to that list but he has left Texas again and now works for the RGA in DC.
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Eric Bearse Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Rob Johnson is a superstar in this business, and anyone who says otherwise speaks from ignorance.
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Scoop says:
Who cares? They’re both an embarrassment.
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Anonymous says:
Chris Perkins isn’t a right wing nut, dumbass
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Anonymous says:
Thought Empower Texans was staying out of this race?
http://www.agendawise.com/2012/07/ted-cruz/
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
It would be fascinating, too, if Grady Yarborough defeated Paul Sadler on the Democrat side of the ledger.
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Anonymous Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 3:30 pm
The Democrats are not having a movement, David. Not even bowl movements–that would require some kind of energy.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Anonymous at 3:30 p.m., who is “David”?
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Anonymous says:
Anyone see Dewhurst basically admit that you aren’t qualified to for public office if you aren’t a veteran yesterday?
I support the vets, but their interests are over represented.
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Whoa, Nellie! Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Agreed. The sense of entitlement among some veterans’ groups is appalling. Another reason to bring back the draft — end the professional mercenary caste and its endless cry for more money.
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jpt51 says:
Turned off by Tea Party voters, Dewhurst is so damaged he loses by 3 points when he takes on Sadler in November.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
jpt51, surely you do not truly think that a Democrat–be it Sadler or be it Yarborough–will end up wining this Senate seat in November, do you?
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George says:
There is no way Sadler could win. Of course, that’s what the John Hill folks thought after they knocked off Dolph Briscoe, only to see the Briscoe folks go to Bill Clements.
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Anonymous says:
Texas Tea Partiers may wake up disappointed one day to find out they put John Roberts – of Obamacare is constitutional fame – in the U.S. Senate.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
How so, Anonymous at 4:15 pm?
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Ben Quick says:
We deserve what we get – it will be embarrassing some day – I hope
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Blake Harllee says:
Im conducting an exit poll as we speak in Decatur, and combined today Cruz is up by 60. Wont have early voting combined until about 715
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DHKaty says:
OMG! The end of the Tx Republican Party is near…about to elect a conservative hispanic Republican to the US Senate, almost no organized opposition party and Republican supermajorities in the legislature! Valley Democrats switiching to the GOP. The most Republicans elected locally ever in the state of Texas…oh everywhere its trending BLUE! OMG here comes Paul Sadler or or..well no one really…its over for Texas Republicans. LOL!
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truth says:
Is Cruz Hispanic?
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DHKaty Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Yes.
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Robert Morrow says:
Let’s see how the Tea Party Trifecta of Cruz-Stockman-Donna Campbell is doing with early voting!
1)
Ted Cruz REP 209,330 52.34%
David Dewhurst REP 190,557 47.65% 1
2)
Steve Stockman REP 4,881 53.79%
Stephen Takach REP 4,193 46.20%
3)
Donna Campbell REP 26,772 66.32%
Jeff Wentworth – Incumbent REP 13,594 33.67%
Cruz with the lead which should widen with today’s results. Stockman with the lead which should win with today’s results.
And Donna Campball absolutely OBLITERATING toll roader Jeff Wentworth. You can’t be a squishy moderate on ALL issues and survive a Texas GOP primary. Wentworth’s pro abortion rights position hhurt him massively, as did being pro trial lawyer, as did being a toll roader.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
I am so delighted to see Donna Campbell beating Jeff Wentworth(less) utterly senseless–at least in the Early Voting.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
Robert, let’s keep Wes Riddle in our thoughts, too. Perhaps it could be a Quadri-fecta rather than a mere Tri-fecta.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Too much money and too much experience in Roger Williams …
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
Even in Bexar County, the numbers which are in thus far show Campbell beating Wentworth(less) utterly senseless.
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anon!! says:
Where’s JBB?! The Dew is losing!
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TellMeWhy says:
Please, please: just stop writing about polling. That “90% of the missing universe” was just purely made up. Cruz won, but whoever said that hung up the phone and laughed his or her ass off.
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