Election Night Part IV — legislative races
Cruz’s lead has now expanded to 13 points at 10:51. The rout that I predicted in an earlier post has come to pass
More legislative races:
HD-11:
Chuck Hopson appears headed for defeat. All boxes are in. Hopson needed a big vote in Rusk County and he didn’t get it. The truth is, Hopson has been living on borrowed time, and has survived in East Texas for many years, but it looks like his luck has deserted him.
HD-12:
Closest race of the night:
Kyle Kacal 50.88%
Tucker Anderson 49.11%
Another squeaker, which just went final:
State Board of Education, District 10
Tom Maynard, 50.15%
Rebecca Osborne, 49.8%
The good news about this race is that both protagonists are quality candidates.
Robert Morrow says:
Biggest race of the night? Ted Cruz?
I’m not so sure. Steve Stockman in the lead right now and it could be a whopper for grassroots conservatives/libertarians.
http://www.chron.com/news/politics/article/Stockman-leads-against-Takach-in-Dist-36-3752101.php
Anything that drives both the media and the GOP establishment insane at the same time has to blessing send down by Teaparty Jesus.
“The runoff winner will face Democrat Max Martin, a retired professional pilot, in November.
In the May primary, Stockman finished 350 votes behind Takach.
As late as Tuesday afternoon, Stockman believed he was the underdog.
“We didn’t have a lot of money,” he said while working a polling station in Pasadena. “The slicks (pamphlets) he’s (Takach) put out are over 50 cents a piece. We don’t have that kind of money. He could still win. He bought name recognition.”
One of 4 new districts
Instead, Stockman opted for lower-grade campaign fliers made to look like tabloid newspapers but bearing the names of fictional publications: “The Southeast Texas Courier” and the “Times Free Press.” The papers bear headlines like “Gunowners Furious as Takach sides with ‘gun grabbers’ ” or “Stephen Takach drove family friend into bankruptcy.” More than 400,000 were mailed out in the new district, Stockman said.
District 36 is one of four new Texas congressional districts based on data from the 2010 Census. The 36th Congressional District is made up of eight counties and part of a ninth: Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Liberty, Newton, Orange, Polk, Tyler, plus portions of southeastern Harris County.”
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Statehouse says:
I think it’s a little disingenous for you to claim credit on this prediction. Throughout the history of this race, your “predictions” haven’t been noteworthy in any sort of way.
When the polls/consultants thought that Dewhurst would win, so did you. When they flipped, so did you. I’m not saying you’ve been wrong about anything, but you haven’t really been ahead of the curve either.
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paulburka Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 11:40 pm
I think that’s fair. I always thought Dewhurst would win, until the final days of the campaign. Abbott’s delay of the primary killed Dewhurst. It gave Cruz time to assemble a campaign and get around the state. But, having seen what transpired, I don’t think there was any way Dewhurst could have beaten Cruz. Not with the campaign that they ran.
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Statehouse Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:11 am
Agreed.
And to be fair, I haven’t seen any other Texas political pundits (at least ones without any skin in this race) make any oracle-like predictions either.
And to think, were it not for Wendy Davis’s last second filibuster during the regular session, Dewhurst would be picking out the drapes for his office in the Russell building right now.
You’ve got to wonder if he won’t hold a grudge against her next session. If she’s back that is.
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yeah! Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 6:47 am
What? Help me understand why anything Sen. Davis did made the Dew lose.
Spiro Eagleton Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:55 am
And I said repeatedly that Cruz would win 55-45. I’m glad he did even better than that. It was almost like IN all over again!
Where’s JBB now with his oft repeated prediction that Dewhurst would win by 6 to 8 points?
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anon!! Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 10:26 am
Yes! Where is JBB?!
Robert Morrow says:
Statehouse – what are you saying, you spoilsport? Burka predicted this race perfectly and here you with you 20/20 hindsight vision questioning the play by play calling on this blog.
Here is Burka, who I like and genuinely hope does not have an emotional meltdown over tonight’s results, explaining to me 4 days ago the ins and outs of this GOP Senate race, which YOU, Grasshopper Statehouse have no conception.
paulburka Reply:
July 27th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
I’ll explain it to you, Robert. At some point in this race, Cruz is going to run out of tea party voters. When that happens, and it will happen, his goose is cooked. Then the huge array of business people, professionals, and civic (not political) activists who make up the Republican party all across this state are going to steamroller Ted Cruz, because they don’t want a senator who is always talking about being supported by the most conservative U.S. senators and criticizing someone for being “moderate.” I have thought from day one that Dewhurst would win this race, because he started with several obvious advantages–money and name I.D. and a bona fide conservative record. Cruz has no record to run on except to repeat how he has “fought for the constitution all his life.” Cruz ran one hell of a race, but he’s not going to make it.
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paulburka Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Not to worry, Robert. No meltdowns for me. I enjoy politics too much.
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Oilers fan says:
Well played, Mr Morrow. (For once)
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:58 am
Morrow was right about these races and Burka was WAY OFF. Burka, please tell us what happened to the “lion’s share” of the vote Wentworth was alleged to be getting from the “high” early voting tunrout in Bexar Co?
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paulburka Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:11 am
There was a big turnout in Bexar County and it was for Campbell, not Wentworth. That’s the problem with assessing turnout. You can’t be sure who it’s for.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 9:58 pm
Morrow got lucky.
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Smeagol says:
So Cruz won a July 31 election. Big deal. Next time, we’ll see if he can win a March one, if he isn’t a VP candidate in 2018.
I expect the GOP to have him speak at the upcoming convention. He will be an overnite star on the TV circuit. First Hispanic US senator from Texas. Romney needs Cruz to be visible.
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Red Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:53 am
He can’t be. Cruz was born in Canada.
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longleaf Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 6:03 am
No one can be a VP candidate in 2018, regardless of where he or she was born.
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Perspective says:
Watershed day for TX politics. Castro (37) and Cruz (41) leapfrog legions of boomer politicos. GPBush (36) won’t be far behind and he’ll have Cruz to give him tea party cred. Everyone in the logjam is about to get washed down the river.
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paulburka says:
I agree with Perspective. Washed down the river indeed, and the sooner the better. This leadership has run its course.
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Statehouse Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:15 am
It’s too bad that the GOP has already picked their keynote speaker at the convention this summer. Otherwise, Cruz would make an interesting choice.
It would be eerily similar to the 2004 DNC keynote speaker.
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