Election Night V — The post-mortem
Going through the comments, I see claims that this was a great night for conservatives. Not to be contrary, but I don’t agree, at least not fully. Yes, Cruz won in a very impressive fashion, and so did Donna Campbell, but several conservatives fell by the wayside: Bill Keffer. Jim Landtroop. Sid Miller. What I found interesting was that Republican voters opted for moderation in legislative races involving extreme conservatives. Villalba beat Keffer, Ken King beat Landtroop, and J. D. Sheffield beat Sid Miller. Ken Miller won a victory for conservatives and so did Stephanie Klick. But this was not a tea party sweep, like the election of 2010. Moderates were able to beat conservatives, something that wasn’t the case in the first round of the primary.
The question now is how deep is the rift in the Republican party and can it be patched up? I think it can be, but only if Republicans leave their past behind. Dewhurst and Perry have been around too long. They need to yield the floor to others. Cruz, it is clear, is a great political talent. He’s the Mike Trout of Texas politics, a rookie of the year candidate who is better than the veterans. He captured the imagination not just of the Texas electorate, but of the nation. He has the potential to be a great United States senator. My first reaction was that he is an ideologue, but I don’t think he’ll remain one for long. He’s going to figure out the Senate and his role in it. His campaign was basically flawless. He is by far the most talented person in Texas politics (not the highest of bars to clear).
CORRECTION: I previously reported that Ciro Rodriguez had defeated Pete Gallego in CD-23. The returns were incomplete. Gallego ultimately prevailed.
Smeagol says:
Moderation? Paul, the blatant theme is anti-incumbent, regardless of moderate or conservative. People who’ve been in office awhile generally lost. This is the big story.
Dewhurst, Chisum, Miller, Hopson, Wentworth, Landtroop lost.
The People threw out the stale bread.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 11:41 pm
They are tired of career politicians. They want term limits.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Voters are term limits. Tonight a perfect example.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Distinguished, I’m still adamant in saying Perry will NOT run again because he is the Terrell Owens of Texas Politics: a CANCER to the state’s political field.
On term limits, how about you and me put an online petition of TWELVE YEARS with a 4-year sitting out period (see Louisiana and Alabama model as examples of governors sitting our 4 years and run again on good behavior).
On Dewhurst, what if he and Abbott kill each other in the 2014 GOP primary for Governor ?
You guys also forget about Texas Supreme Court Justice David Medina (R) who lost his reelection bid for a 2nd full six-year term to John Devine (who beat someone with a Mexican last name).
Despite Cruz’s victory, there is some ethnic purging against Latino statewide officeholders: see then-Railroad Commissioner Victor Carrillo (R) losing a primary challenge to David Porter in 2010 and now Medina losing. This leaves Eva Guzman as the only Hispanic on the TX Supreme Court.
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paulburka Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Worst situation in politics: incumbent in a runoff. Lozano beat the rap.
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Moonshine Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 11:57 pm
he beat the rap….and then some. im already hearing that his primary in may and this runoff have set records for the HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF FIRST TIME REPUBLICAN VOTERS!
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anonymous Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 3:07 pm
and he did it despite despite the consultants he fired after the primary, Murphy-Turner, withdrawing $36,000 from his bank account just weeks before the runoff, leaving him scrambling for cash.
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moonshine Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 5:55 pm
he did come out on top in the primary
Perspective Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:03 am
Lantroop had only served one term. He just seems like a career politican because he has run for office so many times.
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Reality Check Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:27 am
Many commentators will claim conservative sweep or “Tea Party” rout in these election results. When in reality it was an anti-incumbent sentiment (especially for those who chose to go negative early and often). The candidates rarely differed on the issues.
As for Cruz lets hold off appointing him President; if he sticks to ideology over what is best for Texas once he gets to D.C. he won’t last long.
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Bodhisattva Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:54 am
John Cornyn has certainly stuck to ideology over accomplishment, and he’s lasted a decade so far. I don’t think Ted Cruz needs to worry about becoming “practical” now.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Cruz is likely a TWO TERMER in the US Senate until 2024-unless he runs for President in 2020 assuming Romney wins this year and wins big over Hillary in 2016.
Perry was FINISHED last year once his presidential campaign imploded and I do feel bad for Dewhurst, he tried his best in the debates, but Cruz got instead the Dew’s head.
If I were those State Senators, I would not piss off Dewhurst when the 2013 legislative session comes up, because he’s going to be ANGRY, very angry.
I’m betting Dewhurst goes for the governorship against Abbott in 2014, which will be an uglier primary.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
I think it is quite clear, Paul, that Ted Cruz had a “coat-tail” effect that usually only exists with elected officials who have held public office in the past. I personally cannot recall a past scenario in which an electoral new-comer possessed a “coat-tail” effect.
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Perspective Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:04 am
I disagree. Many tea party/far far right candidates lost last night.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:27 am
WHO? You are smoking crack? Many? Try a handful.
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Augie says:
Ted Cruz = Bryce Harper
George P Bush = Mike Trout
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anon Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:09 pm
That’s a clown comparison, bro!
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Viva! says:
Hispanic Rs did great! Cruz beat incumbent, Lozano won despite being an incumbent, Villalba beat a former state rep.
All of the state’s Hispanic political groups should issue press releases congratulating Cruz on his historic win over a good ol boy, anglo, Texas millionaire from the energy business. But I’m not holding my breath….
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WOW Reply:
July 31st, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Lozano beat his opponent by 9 percent 54.1 to 45.9! Guess all the libs who said a hispanic could not win in a republican primary can go suck it!
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Reality Check Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:35 am
Justice Medina probably wouldn’t agree with your take on Hispanic R’s.
I will go ahead and predict that Cruz will be challenged in the Republican primary next time around.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:28 am
I voted for Medina, but he had some ethical issues and the race he just lost was not because of race.
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paulburka Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:41 am
Medina was a good judge, notwithstanding his personal issues. His dissent in the open beaches case was eloquent, and on target.
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 9:58 am
Reality Check at 7:35 a.m., I think that in Medina’s situation, there were lingering concerns about the fire at his house and the subsequent indictment of Medina and his wife on arson charges–not ethnicity.
True, those arson charges were later dropped, however, the issue continued to linger in voters’ minds. Once something like that is “out there” it stays “out there”.
As the old saying goes, “once the toothpaste is out of the tube, you cannot put it back inside of the tube”.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Viva, but David Medina lost his re-election for the Texas Supreme Court to a white guy who wanted to defeat an incumbent “with a Mexican last name.”
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Moderate Texan says:
What a terrible day for moderates and Texas. Thank goodness we still have Speaker Joe Straus fighting for the middle!
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Neva Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:15 am
Looks to me as if Strauss is toast come January. Two themes emerged, every candidate no matter the Office, ran against Pres. Obama, and most of the big $ in the House races seems to have gone to defeat Strauss’s allies.
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Nostradamus Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:12 am
Stance on gaming was an undercurrent
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Anonymous Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:03 am
Straus had January locked up on May 29th. He picked up a few more last night.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:29 am
Straus may be in very serious trouble. Folks still remember he became speaker because of the Dems and a small cadre of moderate/establishment turncoat Republicans in the House. Pledges in May mean nothing come Jan.
paulburka Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:39 am
Whoever is speaker is going to have to deal with the fact that there will be speakers’ races every session. That’s going to be the reality going forward.
LaVidaLoca says:
JM Lozano did an incredible thing for the Texas Republican Party tonight.
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LoNgWinDed Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:07 am
What more can I say about Lozano? In 2010, he beat an incumbent who outspent him by 3 to 1 from the most populated part of the district by 16%. He switches parties and beats a republican from the county that holds 50% of the entire republican vote….and beats him by 9%…whats next…never ever bet against this guy
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U232 Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 6:26 am
Yvonne has finally met her match. Will be fun to see JM cream her this fall.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:56 am
But, LoNgWinDed, the question remains:
Will Lozano defeat his Democrat opponent in the November general election?
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DukeofJimWells Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:18 am
YGT is toast. Half of Jim Wells County is either Lozano’s fathers patient, a Family Doctor since 1984. Since her self inflicted loss, she has burned many of the local big time politicos and just like in Austin, is now a Jim Wells pariah. YGT pressured the longtime Jim Wells County Judge who is from Premont to create a County Court at Law for her since she is struggling chasing abulances. When the Jim Wells County judge told her “the county doesnt have money for that (really he meant “for you”) she went crazy in the hallway and Loudly threatened to run against him. He never backed down and we insiders all know how annoying and vengeful she can be. Try that with the longest serving county judge. She then went after the Alice mayor and ran her husband for the Alice City Council. He got dead last. When your base is split, you are toast. When you are YGT, you are toast. Not to take anything away from Aliseda but, Aliseda even got 30% of Jim Wells and beat her. Remember folks, NOBODY, wants her back in Austin. The trial lawyers are gonna be pumping another dry well in this one.
Jerry Only says:
paul, i couldnt disagree with you more about cruz, but i hope youre right. thanks for making the primaries more entertaining.
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Jerry Only says:
oh yeah – Dewhurst 6-8 pts
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ConservTexan Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:34 am
“Dewhurst by 6-8 points.” If only JBB had posted that a few more times…..four or five times was clearly not sufficient. LOL, what a doofus.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 8:30 am
Where is JBB? I hear he’s breaking out his slide rule to try to figure out what happened to Dewhurst’s 6 to 8 point victory.
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anon!! Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:19 pm
JBB! Where are ya?!
anon!! Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Ha! Where’s JBB?
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Crikey the Teabagger Reply:
August 2nd, 2012 at 11:01 am
He’s figuring out how to blame this on the D’s.
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Nostradamus says:
The Texas GOP fires it’s rightwing party leadership which ran up debts
then gets back in the black with a more pragmatic leader
then puts guest worker program in it’s platform
then chooses a Hispanic, first-time-on-the-ballot over Lt Gov for US Senator
if they keep this up, the Texas Dems may be out of power another 20-30 years.
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IhearThings Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:09 am
Do you hear that???? the hopes of many liberals just got flushed down a toilet..BIG NIGHT FOR THE TEXAS REPUBLICAN PARTY!!
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Neva Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:33 am
Hey, Nostradamus! Does it count if when they fired their right-wing party leadership, they were replaced with leaders “To the right of Atilla the Hun.” ? Does it count that these leaders don’t even understand how to cut the State budgett? And, does it count that they will be so embarrassing that they may make the national news every night?
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anon says:
Remember when you wrote Cruz’s obituary upon Perry’s endorsement of the Dew? Seriously, have you been right about anything this political cycle? Perry will win the nomination…The Dew will cruise to victory…blah blah. You’re a fount of conventional, cliched wisdom.
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Anonymous says:
Burka, you’re confusing concepts. The fight in the Republican party isn’t over policy. Its over style and the characterization of the other side as mere opposition or outright enemy. The “moderates” you describe would have voted, and in fact, already have voted the exact same way as their Tea Party brethren (see, e.g., 82d Legislature). The difference is that your “moderates” don’t spout fire-and-brimstone, red-meat rhetoric and evince public-policy death wishes. Your moderates would have done things differently, if only they hadn’t enabled the other guys. Substantively, the races tonight matter only for purposes of the aesthetics of control within RPT.
And FYI–the Tea Party will always be “taking their government back”. If they ever become one of us, they can’t remain one of them.
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Statehouse says:
Amidst all of this hoopla about the new Hispanic Republican, don’t forget that Justice Medina was upset by a not-so-closet racist. Let’s keep that in perspective.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:21 am
Statehouse, in Medina’s particular situation, there were lingering concerns about the fire at his house and the subsequent indictment of Medina and his wife on arson charges. I don’t see Medina’s ethnicity as having been a factor.
True, those arson charges were later dropped, however, the issue continued to linger in voters’ minds. Once something like that is “out there” it stays “out there”.
As the old saying goes, “once the toothpaste is out of the tube, you cannot put it back inside of the tube”.
As for John DeVine’s comments about running against an incumbent who happens to have a Hispanic surname, was that ever captured on audio tape? Or do we simply take the word of two guys who CLAIM that DeVine made that comment?
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ApplesToOranges Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:28 am
Medina ran a horrible campaign and had baggage. Victor Carrillo did not even run a campaign. Folks the fact is, just because you are appointed to something, if you DO NOT WORK HARD YOU WILL LOSE!!!
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JohnBernardBooks says:
What Cruz victory means is the back lash has started, the tea party is viable and President Amateur is in big doo-doo.
As one poster pointed out the races are a mixed bag with some moderates winning and some democrats like Jeff Wentworth going down like a Rhino.
The story today, is if your a democrat in Texas you still haven’t won a statewide race in Texas….and won’t and if you’re a rino in Texas you’re an endangered species.
And the biggest story here is Robert Morrow knows more about politics than me or my mentor Paul Burka.
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Anonymous Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 10:31 am
There are two take aways from last night’s election results. One, JBB has proven to be even dumber than he comes across (which I didn’t think possible), and second, Incumbents are in danger, whomever they are. JM Lozano won only because the trial lawyers backed his opponent, and if there is anything worse in Republican primaries, its being backed by trial lawyer money.
Even one term incumbents can be made out to be Perry’s sock puppet, and anyone running against one should have lost if they didn’t beat that drum early and often.
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TheMostInterestingManInTheWorld Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:31 am
Seriously….you clearly know nothing about Lozanos runoff victory. It is a breath of fresh air to see people work their ass off to win an election.
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paulburka Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 1:51 pm
I don’t know if this comment is meant for me, but if it is, I know a lot about Lozano’s runoff victory. He worked his tail off blockwalking. He deserved to win.
Blue Dogs Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:24 pm
John Bernard Books, now the Tea Party needs to start doing massive voting registration drives NOW to help Romney in the presidential race.
I’m saying the White House race is a Toss-Up, but you’re right about Obama being in serious danger of being Dewhurst’d.
Dewhurst became the KBH of Austin and Perry is the cancer who is killing folks who rely on him to bail them out.
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Crikey the Teabagger Reply:
August 2nd, 2012 at 11:02 am
Hell, my parakeeet knows more about politics than you do JBB.
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Perspective says:
I was at a victory party for a winner who was not the “tea party” candidate last night and there was large applause for Cruz’s victory. Cruz won many more voters than just the tea party. Maybe due to his admission that both parties have failed us. And the tons of money he had. And getting out and working the state instead of hiding like the Dew.
Many extremists/tea partiers lost last night: Gail Spurlock, Sid Miller, Bill Keffer, Lantroop.
Bennett Ratliff won and he isn’t an extremist.
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paulburka Reply:
August 3rd, 2012 at 11:52 am
I didn’t mention Spurlock in my roundup of races, but she was definitely an extremist and didn’t have a college degree.
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Anonymous says:
There was a sweep of Republican candidates in 1998. So many of the 1998 folks are still on the scene. I think TX voters made it clear last night that we want new leadership. I would say that if you are over 50 and running for statewide office – you are in real danger.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 9:02 am
Don’t bring age discrimination into this, Anonymous at 7:42 a.m.
I think the bottom line is, regardless of one’s age, if a candidate is a true conservative (and not a RINO), then he or she would have done well this political cycle in Texas.
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Anonymous Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 9:27 am
Doesn’t have anything to do with age – it has everything to do with sticking around too long. If a 75 year old enters the playing field and is new. If he came in with the 1998 sweep and still around he is stale.
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Spiro Eagleton says:
Burka,
You just don’t get it and you are letting your moderate establishment bias cloud your writing. No one ever said the Tea Party had to win every race for it to be a great night. Sure, there were a few losses, but the wins by Cruz, Stockman, and Campbell were HUGE. We took out several more Straus lieutenants in the House, too. Sid Miller was a Tea Party target because he was a Straus chair and ally. You can’t say his loss was a defeat for the Tea Party.
I think you are wrong on Cruz, too. For months you (and most on this blog) have told us that Cruz couldn’t win and gave a litany of reasons why. Now you claim Cruz will go soft and squishy in DC. That’s what you hope will happen, but it won’t. Have Sens DeMint, Coburn, Paul, etc gotten more moderate since they were elected? No. Ted Cruz is no Dick Lugar and I’m thankful for that.
As a baseball fan I like the Mike Trout comparison. To keep up that theme, Dewhurst is going to be Dizzy Trout with the way his head must be spinning today, especially if he believed the numbers coming from Baselice’s internal polls!
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Anonymous says:
The other winner earlier on Tuesday was Julian Castro, even though he wasn’t on any ballot. Odds are if the Democrats weren’t already looking at pre-election polls and concluding that Cruz was going to beat Dewhurst, Castro doesn’t get the keynote at the DNC convention (though Castro did get a surrogate ballot win last night, thanks to Gallego’s comeback win over Rodriguez, after he endorsed Pete and Ciro snagged Clinton’s last-minute endorsement. Worked for Rodriguez in the special election against Bonilla in ’06, didn’t work on Tuesday).
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CaliforniaUhaul Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:36 am
Castro, Anchia….i think those are the only libs with any charisma….live in the WRONG state…they want so desperately to be a statewide candidate but they will bever be able to win in Texas because they are liberals.
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Tom Barry says:
There seems to be a tendency to attribute the Cruz victory to one, or primarily to one, cause. I think multiple causes were in play. Dewhurst ran a terrible campaign; complacent and lazy at first, ignoring his opponent, his constituents and the press. Then, when the unusual delay took place, the young and vigorous Cruz took the opportunity to get money and get known. And he was consistently very conservative. Dewhurst, who had already been running from his record, under pressure turned vicious with attack ads that were nothing more than character assassination. People don’t like that. Plus, Dewhurst is an establishment incumbent, and there is a distinct anti-incumbent feeling among a lot of voters.I’m sure there were other factors at work, as well.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Tom Barry, Dewhurst can also blame KBH for ruining his Senate dreams.
Remember how Jerry Brown found that out when he gave up a safe governorship in CA to get clobbered by Pete Wilson in the 1982 Senate race.
It kinda is like this to Texans: they liked Dewhurst as LG in Austin, but didn’t want to send him to DC.
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Tom says:
As someone else already noted, we now have two losers running the state.
I haven’t seen anyone mention the quote from Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson that he’s still planning on running for Lieutenant Governor in 2014.
I think Cruz will be fine. With his background of Princeton and Harvard and marriage to a Goldman Sachs banker, he has all the makings of another John Roberts.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Tom, Staples is also running for Lieutenant Governor as well and keep an eye on Comptroller Susan Combs too.
State Senator Glen Hegar (R-Katy) is expected to run for either Agriculture Commissioner or Comptroller (unless Combs runs for re-election to avoid an embarrassing loss in the LG race) in 2014.
George P. Bush should be able to run for Land Commissioner to succeed Patterson.
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Just Another Joe says:
Neva, Paul, Spiro, Nestradamus and others -
Straus will be Speaker in ’13…book it. The blow he suffered in May was no way near a fatal blow. Looking at last night, yes, he did lose 2 chairs and HD 91 did not shake out the way he likely would have wanted, but…
Landtroop lost. Bill Keffer lost. Ratliff won. JD Sheffield took Parent PAC money (doubt he will vote in block with Hughes, King, Morrison). Unless I am mistaken, Leach has been to Austin quietly telling people that he is open to supporting Straus.
Last night was a wash for Straus, which is as good as a victory for a person in his position. Like a well seasoned football team with the lead and the ball in the 4th quarter, he is running out the clock. His opponents are getting desperate and calling sill all out blitzs (see MQS’ rather stupid election night summary email that went out this morning) hoping he will fumble the ball.
Straus will win. In fact, if the vote were held today, I would expect half of the remaining 15 from last session would switch and vote for him.
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paulburka Reply:
August 3rd, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Straus will be speaker again if he wants it, which it appears that he does. Members face considerable unpleasantness in the weeks ahead, as tea party people will start calling them and demanding that they oppose Straus or face the consequences. There is a longer post to be written about misconceptions of Straus. There is no more loyal Republican in the Capitol.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
But, Tom, unlike John Roberts, Ted Cruz will seek the elimination of Obama-care.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Distinguished, Cruz better pray Romney WINS in November in the Presidential race because the former MA governor is going to need the entire Tea Party to come out in massive droves to vote Obama out.
The Senate is obviously gone, with Republicans picking up Senate seats in Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Virginia, Florida, and Wisconsin.
Watch Ohio and New Mexico as potential upsets.
On the Governor’s Mansions: the GOP will pick-up North Carolina (last GOP governor elected was in 1988), New Hampshire, Montana, and Washington State (Dems have controlled WA State since 1984).
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Robert Morrow says:
Harold Cook:
“Thanks to one-Party rule and the war against the Republican Party waged by Republican tea party activists, they just had themselves a little primary election yesterday in which an incumbent who forces women to have invasive transvaginal sonograms against their will, and another incumbent who wanted to allow people to carry guns onto alcohol and hormone-infested college campuses, were turned out of office because they’re the liberal ones.”
http://www.lettersfromtexas.com/2012/08/texas-political-leadership-needs-a-prozac-prescription.html
My note: it was the Tea Party fiscal conservatives who had a big win last night. Not the transvaginal conservatives.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:04 am
Morrow, good job in your pct. I looked at the numbers and it was a good solid win there for Cruz. My pct went strongly for Cruz as well, especially on election day.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Spiro, we both had absolutely no impact on our precincts.
All my precinct #212 did was reflect statewide trends. Statewide in May Dewhurst was 44.6% and Cruz was 34.1%. In July it flipped to Dewhurst 43.2 to Cruz 56.80.
Preinct #212 Travis in May went Dewhurst 44% Cruz 39%. In July it was Cruz 54% Dewhurst 46%. I tried but I had nothing to do with that.
http://www.co.travis.tx.us/county_clerk/election/20120731/files/20120731reppct09.pdf
Now, if you want to see the impact of my “election day” campaigning looking at the precinct chair race where I was supporting a Ron Pauler Jim von Wolske for precinct. He lost early voting huge, but won solidly on primary day in large part due to my personal campaigning.
You rarely see early voting/election day results flip that hard, but I could not drag him across the finish line.
Cruz election day results in my precinct jumped 6% from early voting numbers, but that was the same trend across Travis County, and even more so statewide.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 9:09 pm
My precinct #212 Travis is a very establishment precinct. Donna Howard lives in it. Michael McCaul lives there. Dan Neil lives there. There are very few Ron Paul voters in this area (although he did do better this time).
It is not a Tea Party stronghold. Yet Cruz succeeded here, while underperforming statewide numbers.
And these people VOTE over here in #212. In the May primary turnout for the GOP primary was 586 voters. In the July run off there were 563 voters, or a whopping 96% of the May turnout. Compared to statewide of 69%? of the May turnout.
Anonymous Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 3:13 pm
“Transvaginal conservative” – Great label. Fits most of the Texas Lege and almost all of the GOP.
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Blue Dog Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Harold Cook is a washed up liberal whose views no longer fit texas. Sonograms, transvaginal or external, WERE ALREADY REQUIRED BY MEDICAL RULES TO DETERMINE GESTATION. Do a little studying for a change rather than trying to incite a riot. What does he think about the handful of Democrats that voted for the sonogram bill? (silence….crickets chirping) thats what we thought. go away cook. you are hurting conservative democrats and driving the democratic party off a cliff.
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BCinBCS Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Blue Dog:
Yes, sonograms were already required. Transvaginal sonograms were not.
An analogy. Which would you prefer to visualize your prostate: a sonogram taken from on top of your pelvis or a sonogram taken from inside your rectum?
BTW, “transvaginal conservative” – that’s such a great label that I’m going to start using it.
Bozo says:
Paul — I am at a loss about your conversion to Cruz since he won. Suddenly he’s a closet statesman who will become a great senator? That’s not what you said the other day. You were right then. Either you stayed up too late — which really wasn’t necessary — or you have gone over to crazies. This stuff is like Nancy Palm with no one fighting back.
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paulburka Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:02 am
I was very impressed by Cruz, even when I thought Dewhurst would win. He ran a textbook campaign. I’m not “converted.” I don’t fall in love with politicians. I’m just impressed with Cruz’s talent.
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Bozo Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:13 am
Nothing personal — but you fell in love with Henry Cisneros – like most of us did.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 11:17 am
I agree with my mentor Paul, Cruz ran a textbook classic conservative campaign, lower taxes and smaller government, works everytime.
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Just Another Joe Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Um, Paul, you seem to have a real love fest with Pete Gallego.
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paulburka Reply:
August 3rd, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Yes, everybody fell in love with Henry. It was a tragedy for Texas that he removed himself from the scene.
Anonymous says:
The Tea Party is the political version of Lord of the Flies……delusional, hysterical, “scary beasts”, ideological without compromise or abilty to govern.
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Breathe says:
WE CAN NOW BREATHE!!!!! YGT WILL NOT BE COMING BACK TO THE LEGISLATURE!!!! (sounds of cheers and popping corks) HOOOOOORAYY!!!!!!!
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WUSRPH says:
If, as you suggest, Cruz stops being an ideolog and becomes what you and I think of as a “good senator”…won’t he be doing just what all the Tea Partiers say all incumbents have done: “being coopted by the system”?…That would be a total refutation of all he supposedly stands for…but than stranger things have happened in a state where the official religion of politics is hypocrisy.
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paulburka Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Cruz is not going to suddenly become an establishment politician. But I also think he is too smart to be typecast as someone whose vote can be taken for granted. Anyway, we are talking about next year, when there will be a new House of Representatives perhaps with a new majority. Give Cruz time to define himself.
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Joel Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 2:08 pm
doesn’t he have to win first? any early polls on cruz v. sadler?
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Bozo Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Why? No thanks.
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Anonymous says:
Spiro, where do you live? Rob Roy?
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WUSRPH says:
The fall election:
Cruz $12 million
Sadler $1 million
That’s all you need to know.
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Anonymous says:
Might want to take a look at the article on the American Prospect – Cruz is a Bush Republican, not a Tea Partier. He just co-opted the movement for this election. The Bush-Perry war continues…and you can chalk this one up to the Bushes.
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Robert Morrow Reply:
August 1st, 2012 at 9:16 pm
That is very simplistic. Could you name 15-20 financial contributors to the Bush family who also gave large amounts to Cruz or pro-Cruz PACs? If you could, you might be right.
Yes, Cruz definitely comes out of Bush World. But his victory was much, much bigger than George P. Bush’s support. The vast majority of Cruz’s support was grassroots Tea Party activism.
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paulburka Reply:
August 3rd, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Cruz a Bush Republican. That has the ring of truth to me.
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Ghost of William Inge says:
Paul, did you notice that Dewhurst and Cruz garnered roughly the same amount of votes over the course of the two primary elections? (About 1.1m)
Does that contradict the conjecture that the Tea Party is the dominant force in Texas politics right now?
No – and here’s why:
William Inge said in 1911 that “Democracy … has the obvious disadvantage of merely counting votes instead of weighing them.”
Of course, he was speaking about the British “first past the post” system for electing MPs, not a run-off system for electing U.S. Senate Candidates in Texas.
That is the key: a run-off system produces low turnouts, filtering the hardcore voter from the indifferent one. The more you are engaged, the more you care about a candidate, issue or a policy, the more likely you are to vote in the second round.
In other words, Run-offs mean votes are weighed as well as counted.
The trouble is that weighing votes is speculative rather than quantitative. The run-off is about as good a gauge as one can get for ‘weighing’ the Tea Party in Texas.
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vintagesoplates says:
it sure is going to be sad seeing the few democratic donors flush so much money down the toilet on such a weak slate of candidates…only gallego has a shot…every one else like sadler gonzales tourilles and some nobodys will be like throwing the cash in the fireplace.
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paulburka Reply:
August 3rd, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Wendy Davis has a shot.
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Bozo says:
Whoever used the “Bozo” name to run down Sadler wasn’t me. Charisma is great when you can get it, but competence and sanity are more important.
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