Guess what I saw tonight?
An Obama commercial. I couldn’t believe it. In Texas. The subject was health care. This has to be the first TV spot for a Democratic presidential candidate to air in Texas since 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen was on the ticket. Hedge: It’s possible that Clinton did some TV here in ‘92. I know the race between Clinton and Bush 41 was close that year, with Perot on the ticket.
ARG, not the most reliable of polls, has McCain up here by 57-38. Democratic strategists told me early in the campaign that they needed Obama to get at least 42-43% for downballot Democrats to do well. Maybe Obama is trying get his numbers up to help the ticket. The spot ran in Austin. Now that’s throwing good money after bad. Obama is going to sweep Austin. Where it needs to run is Houston and Dallas. If anybody in those metro areas saw the spot, please let me know by posting a comment.
napkins says:
saw an ad here on nbc in fort worth this evening as well.
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texun says:
It will have played in all of the major media markets–DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Pasoand McAllen–I’m told. Look for more of them. My assumption is that Obama is now reasonably certain of victory in the national vote and in the Electoral College, so he’s showing the flag in Red states to boost down-ticket Democrats in states where that might happen. (Write off Utah, I think.)
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Anonymous says:
it ran in dfw
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Charles Kuffner says:
Saw it last night in Houston, during the evening news on CBS. I had roughly the same reaction as you.
And ARG polls are crap. I believe their Texas result as much as I believe Obama is leading in West Virginia by a 50-42 margin (another ARG result).
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teb says:
ran in waco
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texun says:
Years ago, I knew a Political Science professor who sent his students out to gather polling data. What they did, in fact, was sit down over beers in frat houses and bars, role play, and answer the questions. As luck would have it, his public opinion surveys were about as accurate as the others on the market. I wonder if ARG is using their less intelligent successors.
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Brown Bess says:
They have been repeatedly running in DFW. He must have raised a boatload of cash in the last month for him to be able to run the table in all the battleground states, plus red states turning blue, plus places like Texas.
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Pat says:
RE: Brown Bess
So basically every state? Thats ambitious and expensive.
I think the more likely explanation is that the Obama folks know the demographic trends in Texas and think the state could be a soft underbelly target in four years. If they can boost down-ballot Dems, they’ll have a decent shot at redistricting in two years. A Dem House and a 17-13 split in the Senate is much more leverage than they enjoy today. With 13, Senate Dems would have a chance of forging a compromise and avoid redistricting going to the LRB, where they will get screwed. What remains to be seen is whether Whitmire and others can get 7 R Senators on board, not to mention The Dew.
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Nicholas Jackson says:
Hey Paul:
Glad to see this post. Earlier tonight I saw my first Obama ad in a very long time here too; my friends and I — one a campaign manager for a state race here — were instantly talking about it. The difference in our ads though is that I’m not in Texas anymore, or even a red state, but am back in Chicagoland.
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paulburka says:
Thanks to all commenters for the information from various outposts.
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CarterB says:
Ambinder is saying it’s a national ad buy:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/obama_in_texas.php
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Daniel says:
I saw it on NBC right before The Office last night and again on CBS during Letterman.
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Buck says:
Clinton campaigned in Texas the night before the ‘92 election. I bet he had TV ads.
But it was a surprise to see Obama. Looked like a national buy.
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Anonymous says:
GO back and look at ‘92 election results – a big Democ year at the top of the ticket, but Republicans did well otherwise.
I realize that 2008 Texas looks different from 1992 Texas, but what happens at the top doesn’t always mean that the same thing happens at the bottom.
Otherwise, Republicans would have WON seats in the Texas House in 2004 rather than lose two.
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paulburka says:
To Anonymous –
The actual swing in 2004 was Democrats +1. The Democrats won three seats held by Republicans. In San Antonio, David Leibowitz defeated Ken Mercer, who had won in a Democratic district in 2002 because his opponent had been indicted. In Austin, Democrat Mark Strama defeated Jack Stick. And in Houston, Hubert Vo defeated Talmadge Heflin. Republicans picked up two seats in 2004. In East Texas, John Otto defeated Dan Ellis, and in Waco, Doc Anderson defeated John Mabry, who had won in a Republican district in 2004 after a very divisive Republican primary.
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South Texan says:
The commercial is playing in Laredo.
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Htown says:
I live in downtown Houston and have seen numerous Obama ads both in the morning during my daily Today Show viewing and sometimes in the evening.
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martha says:
Played in Houston last night on NBC.
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Anonymous says:
it’s a national buy, but it’s interesting to see when it’s airing. Aside from the evening news and today show, it’s been showing during the MLB playoffs (Philly anybody?) and during Sunday football.
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