Today’s Polling (10/25)
From HuffingtonPost:
Collectively, the new polls of the past 24 hours have done nothing to change the standings in the most crucial battleground states. Obama continued to hold leads of 2 to 3 percentage points in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin, four states that currently combine with the states where Obama leads by larger margins to create a 277 electoral vote majority, seven more than the 270 needed to win.
Romney continues to lead in North Carolina and retain a narrow edge in Florida, states that would net him 233 electoral votes along with other states where Romney leads by larger margins. Those totals leave 26 electoral votes up for grabs in New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia, states where the tracking model shows Obama leading by very narrow margins of 2 percentage points or less.
Collectively, the trends of the past week provide a reality check to two myths that have emerged in recent campaign coverage.
The first is that Romney has been “surging” since the first debate. While the debate certainly boosted Romney’s standing in the polls, trends over the past two weeks have been negligible, with the leader seesawing nationally within a range of roughly one percentage point. Over the same period, the standings within the key battleground states have also remained constant. Other poll tracking models have shown the same patterns.
The second myth is that the national and battleground states polls have produced widely divergent results. If we use the state estimates produced by the Pollster tracking model in the nine key battlegrounds (Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina) to create a combined total vote based on the turnout in each state in 2008, we show Obama leading in across all nine states by a slim 0.6 percentage point margin (47.8 to 47.2 percent as of this writing; the estimated margin would be 47.9 to 47.2 percent if based on the 2004 turnout).
New Ohio Polls
Time/SRBI – Obama 49, Romney 44
Lake Research – Obama 46, Romney 44
Rasmussen – Obama 48, Romney 48
Survey USA – Obama 47, Romney 44
Huffpost Pollster (aggregated) – Obama 48.5, Romney 45.8
allmaya says:
Have been saying for months that my dream scenario would be an Obama Electoral College victory while Romney wins the popular vote. Then maybe we can get serious about abolishing the EC.
Remember the folks with “Sore / Losermann” bumper stickers on their cars in 2000? Would be kind of nice to see what they do if my dream scenario comes to fruition.
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Jed Reply:
October 25th, 2012 at 9:26 pm
the same thing would happen as happened then.
lots of talk for a few weeks/months. then back to espn.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
I agree that the electoral college should be abolished and that the presidency should go to that candidate who receives the greater number of votes.
Just imagine the hand-wringing if something akin to the electoral college existed at lower levels of government and we had Governors of states elected by a majority of counties, but by less than a majority of the popular vote statewide or if we had Mayors of cities elected by a majority of municipal wards, but by less than a majority of the popular vote citywide.
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Jed Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
yes, imagine the outcry if we had a governor elected by less than 50% of the vote.
oh, wait. no outcry.
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paulburka Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Re distinguished gentleman, above: If we go by the popular vote, instead of states deciding the election, it will be the big cities that decide the election.
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Blue says:
That’s much higher than the RCP averages
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Ausowl Reply:
October 25th, 2012 at 9:40 pm
but in line with young Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight
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Blue Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 12:45 am
I really and truly believe that Silver goosing 538 high for Obama is all that is preventing all out panic from the Democrats. It’s going to be interesting to see if he tries to save his own skin by tightening up in a week or so…or if he rolls the dice and hopes his credibility survives with an Obama win.
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Spiro Eagleton Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Charlie Cook today at an Aspen Institute Forum took a slap at Silver for using automated and robo call polls in his model and said it makes his projections flawed.
Blue Dogs Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Silver predicted that Perry would win by 8 points…he won by THIRTEEN points: 55-42.
Kenneth D. Franks says:
Being a history major, and a student of history, I’ve argued against and for the Electoral College. This election may revive the issue, however it is very ingrained in our system.
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I KNOW says:
Huffington Post polling analysis is a joke. Seriously.
Look at the ridiculous polls they include.
HP is nothing but a way to keep Democrats from panicking.
Even the RCP averages are way off. 4 years ago today, all but ONE of our current battlefield states had a poll off by 1.9 percentage points or more of the eventual result. Some were off by as many as 11 points. And most of the polls were off in favor of Obama.
Knowing that, what are the odds that these tiny margins hold on election day?
For instance: Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire are Romney. And yet this shows them as Obama? How?
Here is how:
Do you realize what kind of poll they had to include to get Obama up in NH? They had to include a University of New Hampshire poll that shows Obama up by 8 points. It finished about 4 days ago after a long time in the field. Understand that New Hampshire folks register by party so the proportions are well known and it leans heavily GOP. But the folks polled by UNH had a huge advantage in registration for Democrats? Why? How? And that is the ONLY recent NH poll that shows Obama up (and up by 8 no less!). Even the openly Democrat PPP poll shows Obama losing.
This is all a bunch of Poll Porn for Democrats.
Look at the independents. Romney wins them in every single poll. Often by ridiculously huge margins (22%!). Tell me how Obama wins when independents have totally abandoned him?
You can win a poll, easy, just adjust up the Democrat participants like UNH did. Every poll (YES EVERY POLL!) is weighted. How it is weighted makes the difference. Most of these questionable polls have Democrat strength above even 2008 levels. Who believes Democrats are participating at a greater level today than in 2008? Come on.
HP is an insult to any reasonable person’s intelligence.
Poll Porn is like the other kind. The Boobs are fake. The screams are fake. The ugly guy getting the hot chick is fake.
But enjoy the Huffing Post Poll Porn if you cannot face the reality.
Paul, I am ashamed that you even read that site. It is the comic book your parents warned would warp your brain.
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October 28th Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Oct. 25….
You are neglecting the 95+ point gap that Romney has with the African American community and the 40+ point gap he has with Latinos.
The percentage of the white share of the election turnout declines every four years.
Your only hope is to intimidate and suppress the minority vote. Doing so will buy some time…..but, time is not on your side
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I KNOW Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Your logic is flawless. But please explain to me how the state with the highest African American percentage (37%)in America is also the most conservative?
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I KNOW says:
One last item poll porn specialty. Democrats love to look at a poll in Ohio and knowingly smile that Obama’s muscular grass roots will add two points to the poll results.
Reality check: his best two ground game states in 2008 were Florida and Ohio. And the FL/OH 4-years-ago today polls WERE INDEED off, MASSIVELY. BUT the errors were in Obama’s favor.
In other words, John McCain, with no ground game at all to speak of outperformed the polls in Obama’s key ground game states.
Assuming it will be different this year with Romney running a well funded and aggressive campaign is fantasy.
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allmaya says:
“It’s not my son who is out of step. It is the rest of the band.”
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Romney supporter says:
The writing is on the wall. Obama WILL win a second term.
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Obama supporter Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 4:04 pm
The writing is on the wall. Romney WILL win a second term.
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Tiny jogging shorts Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 5:46 pm
So what happens to Perry?
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Anonymous says:
Even Rassmussen who has a GOP bias has Obama up two in OH. I’d add 2-3 points to the 48-46 lead and thats where it is. Obama is overperforming in the Toledo to Akron belt of Ohio. NV is off the board, and the early vote numbers out of Iowa look good. VA and NC are not locked up for Romney. WI is close but Obama has an edge. Romney’s momentum stopped a few days ago.
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Blue Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 8:37 am
The national likely voter polls are converging at Romney 50 Obama 47. If that holds and the undecideds break evenly, thats Romney 51.5 and Obama 48.5.
That makes Romney president, period. The Electoral College isn’t going to swamp a 3 point popular vote win.
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Jed Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 10:09 am
Blue, you talk about the electoral college like it is some mystical being, about which we can know nothing but that it is bigger than a breadbox and smaller than an Escalade.
There is no mathematical reason to expect a particular cut off where the electoral college and the popular vote would no longer diverge. Just as it is possible that a 51-49 vote could give a complete sweep in the electoral college, it is also a possibility that 52-47 is not enough to assure an electoral college victory.
What matters is where the votes is.
And of course, where the fix is.
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Blue Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
If there is a three point gap in the popular vote there is very, very little reason to believe that the swing state or combination of states in the Electoral College will diverge from the popular vote by more than three percent. This is basic probabilty theory.
A point, maybe MAYBE two points, sure. Not more than that.
Jed Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 12:23 pm
*very* basic.
so basic as to be wrong.
Dave Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Consider the difference between registered and likely voter polls. Gallup’s polling bumps Romney up by three points through its likely voter screen. But GOTV efforts in swing states will increase turnout among the less likely voters, so you can’t rely on basic probability theory as if all voters are under the same conditions.
Blue Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Onoe would assume Gallup’s LV screen would have made an assessment about GOTV efforts in determing who is likely to vote. Extra effort in a swing state might help on the margins–but not enough to swamp a 3 or more point difference in the popular vote.
Dave Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Well, even RCP has the race under 1 point (47.9 to 47.0) so it is moot to argue over a 3 point gap.
paulburka Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 8:36 pm
North Carolina is locked up for Romney. The only states that are really in play now are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire. Romney is trying to expand the map to include Minnesota. Good luck on that. Romney gave up on MI, PA, long ago.
As I said in response to an earlier comment: Obama’s advantage is that he has more paths to 270 than Romney. But that is a long way from saying that Obama is going to win.
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allmaya says:
CORRECTION:
“The national likely voter polls are converging at Romney 50 Obama 47″ should say “The national likely voter polls I want to cherry pick are converging at Romney 50 Obama 47.”
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ErnestTBass says:
The national polls mean absolutely nothing. With the electoral college system, the only votes that count are in those few swing states. Get a true, unbiased, statistically valid poll of how likely voters are going to vote in those states and you will accurately predict your winner. Everything else is pure nonsense. Asking who you “think will win,” or polling right wind wackos, like Fox polls, means nothing. It is really not that difficult. And, it will be a close race. My guess is Obama will win with a slight electoral college lead…
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Blue Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Again, if a state is the swing state that means the distribution of votes within the state is going to mirror pretty closely the popular vote. That’s how statistics works. If you go back to 08, for example, the two states that would have swung the election for McCain were Colorado and Nevada, with a 8.6 and 9.3 +Obama vote in each. Obama won with a popular vote of 7 points, so the gap in those states was 1.6 points and 2.3 above the popular vote.
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paulburka Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 8:37 pm
If Obama wins, he will do it hanging on by his fingernails.
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ErnestTBass says:
I strongly disagree that states votes mirror the popular vote. Do you thing it will be a 2-3 point race in Texas? Of course not. The margin here will be much more that that in Romney’s favor. So, to me, a nationwide poll means nothing, only swing state polls…
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Blue Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
That’s not what I wrote. The margin of the vote in the POTENTIALLY DECIDING STATE will mirror the popular vote average.
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Indiana Pearl Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Drive-up window at Church’s Chicken . .
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Jerry Only says:
can we call it now that romney has the meat loaf vote? or do we need to wait for the richard marx and eddie money endorsements?
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José Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Don’t forget Jenna Jameson too.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
If Obama wins, then I am doubly thankful for the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment which limits him to no greater than eight years in the Oval Office.
Now, if we could just get term limits here at the state level in Texas.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Nobody gives a flying SHIT about term limits you uppity bastard.
You are just bitter that majority of Texans voted to re-elect Perry in 2006 and 2010.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Paul, you might want to consider deleting the comments left by Blue Dogs at 3:47 p.m. as being in violation of your blog’s policies relative to civility.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Sorry about the language, but you need to stop with the term limits talk.
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
October 29th, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Blue Dogs:
In a free country and in a free state, such as Texas, I have every right to bring up the subject of term limits just as you have every right to bring up issues that are of interest to you.
Not an editor.... Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 5:27 pm
And YOU need to stop with the language, sir. Paul? Are you out there?
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Indiana Pearl Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Why they voted that way is a mystery.
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Indiana Pearl Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 6:23 pm
And what’s wrong with term limits? In 2050 when my baby grand daughter is going through the menopause, will Gov. Gov. Goodhair still be the governor of Texas?
Zippy Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Grow up.
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Blue says:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx
Go look at how the party demographics in their survey have changed–from +9 Democrat in 2008 to +1 Republican now. There is absolutly no way Obama wins if that’s the population of voters.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Blue, those polls Burka posted are OUTLIERS, OUTLIERS, OUTLIERS.
I’ll believe the Fox News and Rasmussen polls thank you very much.
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allmaya says:
Nate Silver with his fivethirtyeight.com called the popular vote 2008 result to within one point.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Nate correctly called 49 of the 50 states in 2008..
This morning he pegs Obama’s chance of winning at 73.1% – that’s up 2.7% in the last week.
Now where is all that Romney “momentum” we have been hearing about?
FWIW, Nate has Colorado and Virginia on the razor’s edge, but as of now gives Obama a 57% chance of carrying Colorado and 54% in Virginia.
Here are his other chances of winning specific states:
Ohio – 75% Obama
NH – 69% Obama
Florida – 65% Romney
Iowa – 68% Obama
Nevada – 78% Obama
North Carolina – 81% Romney
Wisconsin – 86% Obama
My question to my Republican friends – wouldn’t you swap places in a second for Romney to have these numbers?
Remember, Silver called the last one to within one point.
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Blue Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
If you give me a choice between Romney’s numbers and his trend and Obama’s numbers and his trend, I choose Romney. Really.
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Indiana Pearl Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Choose as you wish. It’s (still) a free country.
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I KNOW Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Silver called it to within 1 point just prior to election day. If you watched what happened 4 years ago you would NOT be so shocked this year about how much polls change in the last 10 days.
Pollsters clean up their act as election day approaches.
Voters DECIDE as election day approaches.
Nate’s prediction stats do not stretch back 10 days.
I predict that by election day Silver predicts Romney wins the popular and loses the Electoral College.
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Jed Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 7:27 pm
and do you predict he’ll be right?
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Spiro Eagleton says:
All of these Ohio polls are within the margin of error. All they tell us is that it is close. Besides, what’s with all the HuffPo postings by Burka? If I want to read that blog I’ll go on there. How about a look at some of the Texas races Burka? And by that, I don’t mean you cut and paste something from the Burnt Orange Report.
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Ausowl Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 4:50 pm
@ Spiro – funny post.
Intrade has Obama at 67%.
Ras. tied in Ohio.
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Ausowl Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Sorry – Obama @ 67% in Ohio.
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Jed Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
polls within margin of error tell us more than it is close.
is there a chance the numbers aren’t quite right? yes.
but would you rather be leading within the margin of error, or behind within the margin of error?
think hard. no rush.
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paulburka Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 8:11 pm
As I said in responding to a previous commenter, I find HuffPo’s polling information to be the most accessible. I don’t give a damn about their ideology.
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Blue Dogs says:
Burka, the PPP poll has Perry leading Abbott by 16 percentage points: 50% to 34% and it’s early.
Once June 2013 kicks in, we’ll find out whose running for what and who is retiring.
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Not an editor.... Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Oh Gawd, not YET, PLEASE!
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I KNOW says:
In the primary, I came here and predicted Wentworth would lose, lose early vote and even lose in his home county.
At that time, the prediction was considered crazy. The story on which I was commenting was pointing out how heavy turnout in Bexar was great news for Wentworth. Look it up.
So, now let me tell you what happens election day next month:
1) Romney wins popular vote by 3 points over Obama. That may not sound like much, but that is a 10 point swing away from Obama from 2008.
2) By coincidence or not, every state that Obama won by 10 point or less in 2008 will happen to go to Romney (this was not how I made the prediction, but was surprised to notice it worked out that way).
3) Romney will lose Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin will be a nail biter.
4) But Romney picks up (over McCain): NC, IN, NE, FL, VA. All of these are no brainers and have basically been ceded already.
5) And then Romney will win IA, NH (already won, really but some do not seem to be aware of that),CO and OH.
6) Romney wins the presidency with 285 Electoral votes.
In the primary, I invited those who disagreed so viciously with me to come back after the election to allow me to say I told you so. Nobody came. I invite all who disagree to come back Nov 6th too. See you then, right or wrong.
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Texian Politico Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 9:49 am
These seem like pretty solid predictions to me.
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Jed Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
no doubt.
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Xaviera Flynn says:
Sen. Wentworth has no relevance to national politics whatsoever. Barack Obama will easily win both the Electoral College and the Popular Vote on 6 November. Period. Anyone who truly thinks otherwise is living in a parallel universe. Romney was never a truly viable contender. If anything, Rick Perry–and the Tea Party–engendered Romney’s defeat. What angry White men, the Tea Party, and more than a few myopic Texans and hard-right Republicans have yet to realize is that in the coming months and years all of you will become increasing irrelevant. The party’s over for y’all. The Republican Party will have to reinvent itself–on both a state and national level, if it is to survive and remain relevant beyond 2016. To make matters worse for all of you Obama-haters, Hillary Clinton will be elected President in 2016, and will likely be a two-term President.
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Xaviera Flinn Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 9:52 am
I’m sorry. I was just having a very bad day. Things haven’t been going well recently and now I’m worried Obama may lose. My only hope is to blast those that disagree with me. It makes me feel better. Ok? Ok!
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Jerry Only Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 3:22 pm
doubtful on the Hillary thing. Whichever party wins this election is likely to have their ass handed to them in 2016.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
October 29th, 2012 at 10:10 am
Xaviera, Obama will LOSE to Romney in November. In 2016, Romney will crush whoever the Dems run against him and by 2020, Ryan or Rubio will succeed Romney-freezing the Dems out of the White House until 2028.
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I KNOW says:
Wow. I am in a parallel universe. Let me describe what I see here:
Gallup Romney up 5.
Rasmussen: Romney up 3
ABC News Romney up 1
AP: Romney up 2
Politico: Romney up 2
What are those polls showing in your universe?
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Jed Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
in my universe, those polls are showing estimates of numbers that don’t actually have anything to do with the way we choose a president.
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JohnBernardBooks says:
skewed polling has replaced reporting in the parallel universe. Romney 320 electoral votes and its one term and done Obama.
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ANON Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 8:05 pm
And how is Dewhurst going to do, JBB?
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
The Dew is kickin azz in the Tx Senate. Good job Dew!
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Kenneth D. Franks says:
Obama, Electoral College victory 283 or more. Close popular vote and maybe even more votes for Romney but Obama remains President for four more years!
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I KNOW says:
I am glad to know we each get the President we want in our own universe.
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Jed Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
for another 11 days, anyway.
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Panic At The Disco says:
Freakout! Freakout! My gut and many of the numbers keep telling me Pres. Obama is in big trouble, but my progressive friends keep pointing to Nate Silver, and only Nate Silver, saying that Ohio isn’t a tossup because Obama leads by 2 points. WTF?! TWO FREAKING POINTS! I’m supposed to rest easy over that! This is bad juju! I just don’t see or feel the enthusiasm from my progressive friends from 4 years ago. It just isn’t right. If this Romney momentum is such a myth why does it feel so real to me? I’m very concerned and the Democrats are in a Nate Silver comma. DAMN IT! Even the early voting numbers in Travis Co are down, while they are up big in Republican strongholds like Williamson Co. This may be happening all over the country, like in WI. FREAK OUT!
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Blue Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Go look at the Gallup and Rassmussen surveys of Party ID. They’ve gone from around +8 D in 2008 to +1 or so R in 2012…and with independents more likely to break R than they were to break D in 2008.
But you’re right, you can feel it. How many Obama 12 bumper stickers do you see on MOPAC? Drove down Shoal Creek and there were only a few yard signs for him…and some Romney ones out! I was on UT campus in 08 and in 12 and there is NOTHING there this year. Nothing.
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JohnBernardBooks says:
You can chill out, its worse than you can imagine. Dems lose House, Senate and Presidency, republicans will undo all the unlawful activity of the Obama Admin and some will be jailed.
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ANON Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 8:07 pm
You really are a fool. Did you go to A&M?
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Jerry Only Reply:
October 27th, 2012 at 8:28 pm
and then are we finally looking at a permanent republican majority?
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Charles Adaway says:
For the last time, I will remind you folks that JohnBernardBooks did not attend college. At least not a four year school. Quit arguing with him. He’s an idiot.
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Anonymous says:
Paul, how bout Perry firing Delisi and Sullivan?
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ChrisCalvin says:
JBB is an alpha male and some of us are lucky to know him
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Rich, white & educated says:
I am so glad I don’t live in Fort Bend County with all that trash
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Dolores Ramirez says:
I see today that the influential, as far as papers go, Des Moines Register has endorsed Romney and new polls show OH tied and MN is now very close. These aren’t Rasmussen polls, but polls by local media in those states. This is not good!
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 9:34 am
Dolores it is bad, not only will Obama lose but the US Senate and House will also be controlled by those who think like me. That’s how bad it is.
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BCinBCS Reply:
October 29th, 2012 at 6:51 am
JBB,
If they think like you, that WOULD be bad!
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Blue Dogs Reply:
October 29th, 2012 at 10:11 am
Books, I’m betting Romney wins 52-45, carrying Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, and keeping the McCain states in his column.
Republicans will likely regain the United States Senate and we could see some surprises in many US Senate contests
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