Posted at 5:41 p.m. 10/25
Time/SRBI — Obama 49, Romney 44
Lake Research — Obama 46, Romney 44
Rasmussen (automated) — Obama 48, Romney 48
Survey USA (automated) — Obama 47, Romney 44
HuffPost Pollster (aggregate) — Obama 48.4, Romney 45.8
* * * *
I would not go so far as to say that Obama has a firewall in Ohio, but he has led here consistently.
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anon says:
Paul,
Can you help me understand Abbott’s bizarre war on election observers? He claims some ACORN-type group from the UN is coming to Texas to infiltrate our election. Then SOS Andrate sends a letter to said group, basically apologizing for Abbott “politicizing” the whole thing. Perry then tweets that he’s with Andrate. So which one is right?
And if Abbott’s going to prosecute the international observers for being too close to the polls, will he do the same to his King Street partisans, who claim they will have a million volunteers to intimidate anyone who looks like they aren’t for the Mormon. What you think?
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José says:
Polls do not account well for an important factor in Ohio– early voting. Ohio has a fairly liberal policy on early voting. The courts stepped in and overruled the Secretary of State (a Republican) who wanted to limit in person early voting. That form of voting appears to be more common for minorities, and many here suspect that party politics had a lot to do with an attempt to keep the wrong sort of person from exercising their rights. It is possible that early voting will determine who wins Ohio and the Electoral College.
I’m a proud native Texas who happens to reside in the Buckeye state. This year I voted early. It was the last day for voter registration before the general election, and the polling place was packed that evening. Some local inner city churches had organized buses for their members. There were long lines for folks who needed to register. Not too bad for those of us who were already registered and just needed to vote. Everyone was well behaved and in a good mood. There was a real good feeling of civic responsibility. Made me especially proud to be an American.
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FLPD says:
anon, I don’t think Andrade apologized for Abbott at all. Seems her letter was warning the organization that it’s role was not to “monitor” Texas elections and then Perry chimed in according to the Chronicle: “Gov. Rick Perry weighed in on Twitter Tuesday, saying, “No UN monitors/inspectors will be part of any TX election process; I commend @TXsecofstate for swift action to clarify the issue.”
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I'm Pavlov. Ring a Bell? says:
Speaking of polls, here is a good one: http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1129&dat=19801103&id=uE8NAAAAIBAJ&sjid=yG0DAAAAIBAJ&pg=5512,134116
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Indiana Pearl Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Ancient histrory . . .
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Pat says:
Hey Burka, can you write about Abbott’s antics? Andrade’s press release/response read like the entire SOS was flabbergasted and frustrated with the AG.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 25th, 2012 at 11:21 pm
If SOS is so frustrated with the AG’s office, they should stop calling for help every day of the week.
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I KNOW says:
Reality Check:
4 years ago today Obama led Ohio in the RCP average by 6.6%.
That is the REASONABLE average,not the flying circus of polls dragged in and averaged by Huffington Post.
And despite that, Obama’s actual victory over the hapless McCain was 2.1 percentage points less than the polls indicated 4 years ago today.
Today’s Ohio RCP average lead for Obama? Coincidentally it is exactly 2.1%
Firewall? Hardly.
And remember that Obama had that HUGE “silent but deadly” grassroots effort in Ohio in 2008 and McCain was massively outspent and out organized.That vote was supposed to show up at the voting polls but not in the opinion polls! Is that happening in Ohio this year? Of course not.
And now for the Coup de grâce: Take a look at the current WORST poll for Romney in Ohio (TIME) and look at how Romney is doing among independents. Lets listen to TIME’s own words: Romney is ahead of Obama among Ohio independents, winning 53% to Obama’s 38%.
What? A 15 point Romney lead among independents and someone thinks Romney is not ahead overall? And mind you, this is the WORST POLL IN THE STATE not some cherry picked rosy Romney poll.
Only by assuming Republicans are practically non-existent can these polls be made to look like Obama is winning.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
October 26th, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Romney will have big GOP turnout in Southern Ohio (conservative part of the state) which will easily drown out the minority turnout of Cleveland and Columbus.
I have Romney winning Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Colorado.
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I KNOW says:
Blue Dog is correct with one exception. Romney will also win Iowa.
But he will lose NV, PA, and will lose Wisconsin in a nail biter which will provide entertainment for the evening.
And he will win the Popular vote by 3.
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