Recent battleground states polls (10/28)
I have no credentials as a statistician, but it seems evident to me that the three Ohio polls serve to reinforce each other and enhance the probability that Obama is ahead in that state by at least +2.
BREAKING: House committee assignments »
Cornyn, Cruz oppose Kerry confirmation »
Not with a bang but a whimper »
Perry will deliver State of the State address on Tuesday; is it his last? »
SAEN: DNC finance chair Munoz’s career marred by fiscal debacle »
“Battleground Texas” »
Campbell, Davis draw two-year terms »
The way politics ought to be »
Recommended reading: John Weaver on the future of the GOP »
Guns in school and everywhere else »
January 2013 »
December 2012 »
November 2012 »
October 2012 »
September 2012 »
August 2012 »
July 2012 »
June 2012 »
May 2012 »
April 2012 »
March 2012 »
February 2012 »
January 2012 »
December 2011 »
November 2011 »
October 2011 »
September 2011 »
August 2011 »
July 2011 »
June 2011 »
May 2011 »
April 2011 »
March 2011 »
February 2011 »
allmaya says:
Paul at some point before November 6th, are you going to call the Presidential race?
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 7:28 pm
I would be foolish to try to call a race that is too close to call. I could make an argument either way. I do think the Carter/Reagan model of a big swing late against the incumbent is a possible outcome of this race. Mainly, I hope the country does not have to go through another election in which the popular vote and the electoral college result is split. That would just prolong the gridlock.
Reply »
Mayo Say Tongue says:
New Poll out this weekend shows Ohio all tied up at 48% each.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 7:17 pm
The Cincinnati Enquirer poll has Ohio tied at 49%.
Reply »
JohnBernardBooks says:
I’m going with PPP Obama by +9
Reply »
Fiftycal says:
Hey with a D+9% poll showing a 3% lead, I’ll bet Obama has this all sewn up. With “free” healthcare and “free” mortgages and “free” foodstamps, this will soon be the land of the “free”. If I wuz a democrat, I wouldn’t even bother to vote. Why just look at the enthusiasm in Travis County. Do you think Sanders or Sanderson or whatever his name is will beat Cruz?
Reply »
ANON Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 6:28 pm
We need serious gun control and the taxation of ammunition in this country. Maybe Romney will follow his Massachusets roots and get it done,
Reply »
ghostofann Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Do you need a hanky and some Midol, Fiftycal?
Reply »
I KNOW says:
You are correct, Paul!
You are no statistician.
And your judgement about where your get your news (Huffington Post) raises even more questions.
Who got the final poll right in Ohio four years ago?
Not even one poll came within 2 points of the actual vote number there of all the final polls (Finals are the best…at a week out as we are now are usually worse).
And now 2 points is the difference here.
But by chance, someone did get it right a week out. Who was it? Fox news/Rasmussen and Survey USA.
Those biased guys.
Reply »
Dolores Ramirez says:
A new poll from the Cincinnati paper shows OH is now tied. Reading the HuffPo makes progressives like me feel good, but I fear we are fooling ourselves. The more I talk to my friends the more convinced I am that Romney is going to win.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 7:43 pm
I read HuffPo for the polls, not for their point of view. It has the most current poll information. I also read Five Thirty Eight. It does the best job of explaining what the numbers mean.
Reply »
Sunday driver says:
Uh, you guys need to look at that Ohio poll. It was over five days ago, with even older polling. The results were embargoed until today.
Reply »
Dave Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Let them have their dreams.
Reply »
paulburka says:
Rather than call the race, I will simply state the facts. Obama has more paths to 270 electoral votes than Romney does. Romney has tried to expand the map to include MN; he’s running ads there, but it is fundamentally a Democratic state.
Reply »
Blue Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 7:50 pm
I totally disagree. If Obama loses Ohio, he loses. Period. No backup plan. The notion that he has “more paths to 270″ is pure Democratic spin from people like Silver and you are buying it hook, line, and sinker.
Reply »
Dave Reply:
October 28th, 2012 at 9:46 pm
The RCP ‘no toss-up’ map has Obama at 290 EV. Ohio is 18, so Obama could lose it and still have 272. That doesn’t count Virginia, which RCP gives to Romney even though they have the race tied at 47.8. If Obama did win Virginia’s 13 EV, he could lose Ohio, Colorado and Iowa and still get 270. Both Pollster and Polltracker have Obama up in Virginia due to polls that RCP doesn’t list.
‘More paths to 270′ is arithmetic.
Reply »
ghostofann says:
Pssst…Dave, they don’t get “arithmetic.”
Reply »
Blue Dogs says:
I have Romney winning Ohio and Wisconsin as well as Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire (he’s from a neighboring state of MA), and possibly Colorado.
The liberal media will be crying their eyes out once they hear “Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is now the 45th President of the United States.”
I also want to see the look on the faces of the Obama folks in Chicago when they hear Romney has been elected, it’s gonna be fun.
Reply »