The Baselice Poll
It’s hardly worth looking at Texas polling. The only suspense is how big the Republican margin is going to be. According to Baselice, it’s 16 points. [Romney 54, Obama 38]. That is a huge differential. Not so long ago it was 9. The Cruz-Sadler differential is even worse [Cruz 48, Sadler 26].
The lesson here is that the worst thing that can happen to the state Democratic Party, or what’s left of it, is to have an unpopular Democratic president in the White House. The Democratic brand is ruined in Texas. The last Democrat to carry Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and he was defeated in the Reagan landslide of 1980.
A few numbers in the Baselice poll are worth looking at. In the Senate race, each candidate is doing well with his own base:
D – Sadler 80%
R – Cruz 89%
Among Hispanics, a group that is crucial to Obama’s reelection, the numbers in Texas are a far cry from Obama’s 70%+ nationally:
Obama 49%
Romney 40%
What does this tell us? Texas Hispanics are more conservative than Hispanics in other Southwestern states (CA, CO, NM, AZ).
Among women voters, Obama has a 50% – 41% lead. That, at least, is consistent with national trends. (Yes, I know that recent polling shows that Romney has closed the gender gap.)
The disparity between the two parties is so great that it is hardly worth the effort it takes to do a poll.
Tim says:
It’s interesting people don’t talk more about mobilizing women to vote. If women are going for Obama 50% – 41% that would suggest that the state should be going for Obama if women were voting in numbers relative to their population in the state. What gives there?
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FLPD Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Excellent point, Tim, about mobilizing women to vote. The female voter gap plus a 9% gap in Hispanic voters should make Democrats competitive. Did the poll happen to say how big the gap is among male voters and white voters?
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Tom says:
There’s not that much difference between the gap in Texas and the gap in Massachusetts, except of course the voters in Massachusetts know Romney better than anyone else. And this is from the Republican leaning Rasmussen poll:
“President Obama continues to dominate Mitt Romney in the presidential race in Massachusetts
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters shows Obama with 57% support to Romney’s 42%. One percent (1%) is undecided.”
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I'm Pavlov. Ring a Bell? says:
Funny. You can actually hear the despair in Paul’s voice.
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TeeHee says:
Texas women are not issue oriented. They are classic small town, religious. Dominated by their overly conservative men. They vote what they are told to.
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Tim Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
They say they’re Obama fans when they pickup the phone at their homes, but not in the privacy of the voting booth? That doesn’t really compute.
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Indiana Purl Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
TIMMY!
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Indiana Pearl Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 6:38 pm
You are persistent. Not very smart, but persistent.
bnrtn Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Good luck with telling that to any women I know
You’d better be prepared to duck and run!
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Red says:
I wonder how close it would be if there was actually a competition in this state. Assume there was a national popular vote that decided the outcome, would Obama/Romney swing through Dallas/Houston/San Antonio? Would these margins be different? Just an interesting thought experiment.
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Whoa, Nellie! Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 11:50 am
Yes, the Electoral College is one of the biggest obstacles to improving voter turnout in presidential elections and relegating states like Texas to Ignore status (except for fundraising that then goes out of state).
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Blue says:
If Hispanics in Texas continue to vote 35 to 40 percent Republican this state won’t turn Democratic for a generation.
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Dolores Ramirez Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
WE ARE DOMED!
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retrocon Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Don’t you mean the capitol is domed?
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Texian Politico Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
I think that’s what the Astros said in 1965.
texun Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Yup. Please be patient while I say it one more time: demographics don’t win elections!
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Blue Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 4:47 pm
I’ve always believed that, texun.
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Bevo's Brain says:
As I recall Baselice was the one telling Dewhurst he would beat Cruz…so why are we paying attention to his numbers?
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Texhimself says:
The Democratic party is nonexistent in Texas, and deserves the rolling it has received. But the loser is Texas, and Texans as a whole who have been mislead, lied to and manipulated by right wing whackos. The Republican party in our great state really is a joke.
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Dave says:
It is a likely voter poll, and a lot of Texas Hispanics are not likely voters. A broader sample would probably be more in line with other southwestern states.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
October 30th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
The Baselice poll also had Perry leading Abbott by 16 percentage points in a possible GOP primary race for the Governor’s Mansion in 2014:
Perry-50
Abbott-34
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A2Z Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Absolutely nauseating.
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Anonymous says:
The biggest miscalculation Rick Perry made was in not going through with the secession threat when he had the chance.
These poll results only validate that Texans really do want to be in another country. This divide will only get worse.
Eventually someone like Perry will have the guts to marshal the Tea Party to reestablish the Republic of Texas and then the drone attacks will commence on “Texas al-Qaeda” leaders.
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Indiana Pearl says:
Mr. Burka : A person of diminished responsibility is posting as “Indiana Purl” (not me) and perhaps as “Delores Ramirez.” Please check the registration of this poor befuddled soul and PURGE HIM/HER!
Your blog loses its validity and credibilty with this malarkey.
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Blue Dogs says:
Delores Ramirez has a FB page, just google her up.
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wt says:
The Obama campaign’s error, among many, has been to assume reproductive issues are the prevalent issues among women voters. They overlook the significant number of pro-life women, for example, and the centrality of economic issues to women. See the Ross Douthart column in today’s American-Statesman.
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Anonymous says:
The TDP is a regional urban party. It either needs to reconnect hard and put serious effort in the rural areas or learn how to do better in the suburbs and not just rely on changing demographics to get them there. A lot of up and coming electeds were defeated in 2010 thanks to the national wave. Some are trying to make a comeback but many have moved on. The party is in terrible shape outside of Dallas, Travis, El Paso, and the border counties.
I agree with Dave that many hispanics are making Baselice’s likely voter screen.
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Anonymous says:
Aren’t making Baselice likely voter screen.
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