Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)
Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)
Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Source: PoliticalWire.com
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I'm Pavlov. Ring a Bell? says:
I trust Rasmussen more on this one.
“In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
Romney has now led for 12 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll
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Anonymous Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 9:58 am
Rasmussen is the most biased poll out there. Not even Fox will use it.
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Texian Politico Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in the 2008 elections.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 6:41 pm
And was dead nuts on in 2000.
Dave Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Rasmussen predicted Bush would win the popular vote 46.9 to Gore’s 41.4. Dead nuts is right.
paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:35 am
Rasmussen’s best year was 2004, when the automated polls outperformed the traditional polling companies. Rasmussen and Survey USA had the best records. Political junkies should be able to locate a piece about the 2004 polling that appeared in Slate.
Anonymous Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Who cares? Accurate or not, aggregate swing state polling is only marginally more meaningful than national polling at best.
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Not an editor.... Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Well, unfortunately, I guess we still have to vote using that durned old E-Lectoral College! Vote totals across states aren’t worth wet toilet paper.
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Anonymous says:
Anyone heard anything on the Senate races? Looks Linda McMahon may have a chance in CT. Let’s hope, it would be great to have some moderates back in the party to offset the “rape is a blessing” caucus of Akin and Murdock.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 9:59 am
There are no moderates in the GOP. They have been purged.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Yeah, but the Democrats have had a hand in the purging. A constant criticism by the left of the GOP is that it lacks moderates. However, when Republican Moderates run and win, and then perform well in public office, Dems pool their money to take them out. This is exactly what is happening in Massachusetts with Scott Brown.
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Jerry Only Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 12:59 pm
thats what happens in any election, most of the time parties play to win. been happening since the beginning of the republic.
Dave says:
2008 numbers for Actual, RCP average and Rasmussen
Ohio: Actual O 4.6 RCP O 2.5 Ras Tie
Florida: Actual O 2.8 RCP O 1.8 Ras M 1
Iowa: Actual O 9.5 RCP O 15.3 Ras O 8
Michigan: Actual O 16.4 RCP O 13.5 Ras O 10
Pennsylvania: Actual O 10.3 RCP O 7.3 Ras O 6
Virginia: Actual O 6.3 RCP O 4.4 Ras O 4
Wisconsin: Actual O 13.9 RCP O 11.0 Ras O 7
For these swing states, the RCP average was only 1.1 points below the actual margin overall, but Rasmussen was off by 4.3, and missed two states.
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Dave Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 9:57 am
FWIW, the Pollster (huffpo) average was 0.8 points low on the same dataset, slightly closer than RCP.
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Blue Dogs says:
Burka, when are YOU going to accept the fact Romney is going to WIN the presidency next Tuesday night ?
I’ve also looked at national and swing state polls and they both show Romney leading by 5-6 points still.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 11:09 am
Sorry Blue Dogs,
I’d like at the polls ran by the news organizations. Florida is R+1, Virginia is O+2, Ohio is O+5, Iowa is O+4. NC is tied. Michigan and Minnesota will be close but O will win them. How is Romney winning when NC and VA are tied and he is still down in Ohio?
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Anonymous Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 11:09 am
Meant to say I’d look…
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Jerry Only Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 1:04 pm
BD, you can pick and choose your polls however you want, but come election day all of thats going to go out the window.
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KB Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Scooooooreboard. Scooooooreboard.
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allmaya says:
Blue Dog, when I went to high school, our football team usually had 3-8 seasons.
Why do you insist on looking at the 3?
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Bill says:
Turn out the lights, the party’s over…
The President will get 303–if not 332–electoral votes.
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Pri-ista says:
Look, Burka needs Obama to win, otherwise TX politics will be very boring if Romney wins. Perry will definitely not run for POTUS again if Romney wins, and Perry might just be Governor until the day he dies. With the recent surgery and his gym rat habit, Governor Perry could be Governor for another 20-30 years (so no stories, business as usual in Texas).
Also, Julian Castro would have nowhere to go, if Obama loses. Julian would actually have to stay in office and see his policies take effect, and that might not actually be good for, and Julian would be swallowed up my municipal politics (so no more stories there).
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Anonymous Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 10:59 am
I think Perry is secretly hoping Romney will lose. If Romney wins, it will mark the end (thankfully) of Perry’s unremarkable tenure as President of Texas. If Romney loses, look for Perry to bring on Joe Allbaugh or Nick Ayers.
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Jerry Only Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 1:02 pm
same with christie, with his comments yesterday regarding sandy.
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:39 am
Of course Perry is hoping Romney will lose.
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Vernon Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Paul doesn’t “need” anybody to win. He has no ulterior political motive to his blog posts or his other writings. Even if he did, nothing he could do here would make Texas change from being a red state. I think he knows that.
No matter who wins any election, Texas politics is now and always will be an eternal wellspring of ridiculous characters, laughable legislation and mindless tragedy. With such abundant story material, journalists should never be bored.
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:40 am
Thanks, Vernon. What he says is true. No ulterior motives.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Pri-ista says:
“Governor Perry could be Governor for another 20-30 years”
OMG, we must institute term limits to save Texas from that horrible destiny.
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ANON Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Texans just cannot be that backward and stupid. Anymore Perry and we cement our reputation as a hack backwater with good geography.
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Fiftycal Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Let’s see, Best economy (other than the DC lobbyists), low unemployment rate, business moving in from CA, NY and IL, rising home values, etc. Gee, I hope we stay “backward and stupid” to the socialist chattering class. Maybe they will move to nirvana in San Fran (with nan) or NYC.
Just Sayin' Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 3:47 pm
We could just vote him out. Losing an election = old fashioned term limit.
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Just Another Joe Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Amen to that. The only people who advocate for term limits are people too lazy to take their vote seriously.
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:45 pm
The problem, Just Another Joe, is that in many instances either nobody at all files as a challenger against an incumbent, or someone actually does file against an incumbent and then runs a very weak and pathetic campaign against that incumbent. But with term limits, it would GUARANTEE that the incumbent cannot hang on for decades in the same office.
Vernon Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 8:59 am
DG,
Primary challenger campaigns will almost always be weak since the party is so much more inclined to support and fund the incumbent. I can’t think of a recent example where a state party backed the challenger over the current office holder.
I’d wager the parties like having no term limits. It gives them more control over who’s in office and who succeeds them once they retire. It makes things more predictable and stable for them.
Fighting for term limits would be a slog, one guaranteed to lose. It would lose because all the players like the way things are now.
If there’s one thing you can bet on, it’s that 95% of the time the lobbies/special interest/business interests want nothing to change. And they have the money to see that nothing does.
It wouldn’t be impossible to implement term limits, but it would take a horrific scandal of epic scale at the highest levels of state government.
KB Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 10:13 am
What we need to do is VOTE RICK PERRY OUT OF OFFICE.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Distinguished Gentlemen, if you don’t like the way things are done here in Texas, then MOVE OUT and go to Florida or Louisiana where they can accept your crap there.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Watch your language, Blue Dogs.
There is no reason for me to relocate to any other place. I am free to advocate for what I believe in right here in Texas and I would venture to say that the vast majority of the people of this state are in agreement with me on this issue.
donuthin says:
You would hope that if Romney wins, the Republican Party would wake up and realize that their embracing the right wing extremist was a mistake and that Perry would even be a weaker candidate than this time. Wouldn’t bet on it though.
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anon-p says:
There is a huge dichotomy between the media polls advanced by the left, with Nate Silver at the lead, and those advanced by the right. In fact, I thought Nate would start to do some backpedaling, but he’s still sticking with the “Obama showing a widening lead over Romney” line.
Normally, this sort of split wouldn’t surprise me in the beginning of October, but it’s truly shocking to show up at the beginning of November.
Either Romney’s campaign is terribly naiive to expand into PA, MI, and MN, or pollsters are lying about the president’s lead. Or terribly misguided.
We’ll know in a week, of course, but the split is very intriguing.
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:50 am
I think the Romney campaign believed their own press clippings about “Mitt-mentum” and Obama’s vulnerability. They thought they were going to cruise to victory. The mistake of the Romney campaign was tactical: They waited too long to extend the map. They gave up early in Pennsylvania and Michigan, then waited too long to jump back in. But the other big problem was one that they had no answer for. Romney could not separate himself from the extremism of his party. If he loses, he will have been defeated by the Republican crazies, not by the Democrats.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Burka, Romney will WIN, just wait and see brother.
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Anonymous says:
The fun thing here is the polls coming out from now through Election Day are no longer hypotheticals, with no wa
y to either prove or disprove their accuracy. Whatever state or national numbers Quinnipiac, Rassmussen, PPP, Gallup, CBS/New York Times, Reuters or any of the other polls come out this week are going to be proven right or wrong a week from now. And since some polls are diametrically opposed to each other, at least a few are going to be proven spectacularly wrong/biased/incompetent, depending on what your personal beliefs are about that particular pollster and/or their sponsoring companies.
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allmaya says:
Yes anon-p, I agree with you.
There is a huge dichotomy between the media polls advanced by the left and those advanced by the right.
The left is citing poll AVERAGES, while the right is cherry picking the polls they like.
Here is Nate Cohn on Ohio polling:
“Over the last week, a wave of new polls show Obama leading by an average of 2 or 3 points with 48.9 percent of the vote. Although this compilation includes every survey, which happens to include a few Democratic partisan polls, the RealClearPolitics average also shows Obama with 48.9 percent, up more than a point from Obama’s post-debate nadir.”
Romney’s AVERAGE in 14 recent Ohio polls – polls across the political spectrum – is 46.1%.
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Tom says:
This election is a referendum – on the voters. This election will show whether you can follow Romney’s lead and turn into a chameleon depending on your audience, or whether the public understands when a candidate is blatantly lying.
Based on Chrysler and GM standing up to Romney this week and the resulting polls in Ohio, it appears the voters continue to support candidates who can tell the truth.
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ANON Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Even Chris Christie, a neocon, is realizing Romney is a lying, misleading and flopping do-nothing.
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:56 am
Romney was a much stronger candidate when he ran as who he really is — that is, Moderate Mitt — than when he ran as a Republican. The Republican brand dragged him down.
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Just Another Joe says:
Prediction….
Wendy Davis wins, as does President Obama. Davis draws the short straw and has to run again in 2 years. In another Obama mid-term, she gets beat by whoever the Rs nominate.
One crazy prediction…
The R nomination against her in ’14 will be George P Bush after nothing statewide opens up for him.
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KB Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 10:17 am
Why are we assuming there will be an Obama backlash in 2014? The economy is improving, and the Republicans are rattling sabers about impeachment once the President wins. This sounds a lot like 1996 leading up to 1998. In 1998, there was no Clinton backlash, despite a bad loss for Democrats in 1994.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
Does George P. Bush actually reside in that Senatorial District, Just Another Joe?
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Just Another Joe Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:04 pm
I have it on great source that he looked at making the race this year but declined in favor of running statewide in ’14, so I imagine he can claim residency one way or the other.
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Steve Bresnen Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Don’t you think the young man ought to actually do something before he’s annointed? Jesus.
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Vernon Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 9:19 am
I agree with Steve.
But I suspect that most average Texans out there believe that being a Bush automatically qualifies or “anoints” one for office. You can’t buy that kind of name recognition.
(Plus, assuming Obama wins, Rs in Texas will fume and brood for 4 long years. They’ll be so angry and anxious to get a Bush conservative back in any office that they might be quite willing to overlook the fact he’s inexperienced…but rather, they’ll want someone who’s “not a career politician.”)
John Johnson says:
Do you think the Repubs who voted for Wendy last time…who are doing so this time in increased numbers…are going to switch over to Geo P? Wrong, Joe. Wendy will stay in Dist. 10 seat until she runs for Gov.
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Just Another Joe Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:04 pm
She wishes.
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John Johnson Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:23 pm
You know something I don’t? Think all the Hispanic voters are going to flip flop over to Geo P. ? Nope, they’re not either. She was their loud voice while on the Fort Worth city council. They love her. What I wish is that you’d back your prognostications up with something….anything.
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Just another joe Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 6:55 pm
In 2010 Perry beat Bill White by 8 points in that district. All other statewide dems did well if they got within 20 points of their Republican counterparts. Wendy Davis is a good campaigner, very good. But even she can’t survive an Obama backlash election in a district that leans republican.
Love you, too. JJ.
Leslie Knope says:
I think Just Another Joe is pretty spot on, Obama Wins, Davis Wins, she gets a short straw, but George P isn’t running for state senate. He’s got his eye on the prize, and we know that there is no advantage in waiting. But will that year be his or Julian Castro’s??
Also, Rick Perry has already hired Nick Ayers. It’s on in 2016. Rick Perry hoping Romney loses? Are people that naiive in here? OF COURSE he’s hoping Romney loses.
I second Bill’s electoral vote predictions.
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Jerry Only Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 11:32 pm
next time he wont make it through new hampshire. his brand is shot.
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Texhimself says:
Looks like the electoral college map says Obama gets four more. How will the right act out? Voter fraud? End of the republic? With the GOP realize it has been refuted again and work to compromise (ha)…stay tuned.
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Texian Politico says:
Burka,
How about some blogging about the races here in Texas instead of just copying and pasting polls from other national websites? I’m sure everyone on here reads those sites already.
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Just Another Joe Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Then he’d actually have to work and do a little research, two things that have never set well with Burka.
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Steve Bresnen Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 5:05 pm
I read the other day about some folks who don’t like toll roads and declared they’re not going to drive the 30 miles from San Antonio to Seguin to drive on HWY 130. That makes more sense than you reading this website. Just don’t go here, dude, and you’ll be a lot happier.
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 1:08 am
I have written about the Weber – Lampson race. Lampson needs 60% in Jefferson County to win. I’ve heard conflicting reports on Gallego-Canseco. I’m not going to call it one way or the other. I’m not going to write about legislative races. They are too obscure and there is too little information. I expect Lozano to win easily. I think Democrats will underperform because there is no enthusiasm. I will be surprised if Obama cracks 40% in Texas. Wendy Davis has outperformed Shelton; that doesn’t necessarily mean she will win. The D’s best shots are in the Dallas and Harris county courthouses and judicial races.
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Texian Politico Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 7:48 am
Thanks. Perhaps you could give us some blog posts about some of these races? We get lots of national political news from the national sites. I’d like to see something on the TX races. What’s the deal with Travis Co having such low early voting turnout vice four years ago? Is it really that all the voters are studying the ballot in great detail and waiting until election day or is it that Democratic enthusiasm is down and so is their turnout?
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Anonymous Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 9:51 am
I live in Dallas, and the Dems will sweep the few countywide races again. They are now ahead of the GOP in EV. Obama will probably get around 53-54% in Dallas. Sherrif Valdez will get 55%. I think Villabla wins in HD114, Miklos wins in HD107, and the GOP holds the other state house races.
I think Davis/Shelton is a coin flip.
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jpt51 says:
I like Vernon’s way of thinking. To me, the most significant poll is Wisconsin. It says a lot when Ryan cant bring his own state into the “R” fold.
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Steve Bresnen Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Gore lost Tennessee
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 1:11 am
Gore lost Tennessee and Arkansas — his home state and the home state of Bill Clinton.
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Texian Politico Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 7:45 am
And if he’d won either of those the whole issue in FL would have been moot.
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 1:37 pm
And yet, Paul, Gore WON the POPULAR vote nationwide. Were it not for the antiquated electoral college, Gore would have been President from 2001 to 2005 and would most likely have been defeated in the 2004 elections (just guessing on that last part).
Blue Dogs Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Burka, all Gore had to do was win Tennessee and he would have won the presidency.
Anonymous says:
Haven’t checked in here for a few months, but see it’s still the same collections of lefty cheerleaders for Obama and the libs. You libs are gonna be disappointed on Tuesday. These polls like Quinnipiac, Reuters, etc. are all giving Obama small leads in swing states based on him turning out his voters like he did in 2008. He isn’t anywhere close to that. Romney has done what he had to do– show himself as a reasonable acceptable alternative to the disastrous, in over his head Obama. Romney wins and it won’t be that close.
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Jerry Only Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 4:11 pm
and if youre wrong?
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José Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Oh Jerry. They are never ever wrong. You just misunderstood them.
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Fiftycal Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 8:59 pm
Well anonymouse, give them a few more days of their delusions. I’ll be there to lick the tears of despair from their cheeks, like in that episode of “South Park”.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 10:46 am
Anon 3:56,
Have you forgotten what sort of demographic changes have happened since? Of course turnout among Obama’s core will be down but when they are growing as a share of population it could wash out. Listen to Rove and Romney’s political director and you would think Romney’s getting 336EVs on Tuesday.
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Joe Carl White says:
The ID in the Q polls are thus:
StateRepublicanDemocratIndependentOtherDK/NA
FL30372931
OH29373022
VA27353521
D+7 in FL, D+8 in VA & OH?
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Fiftycal Reply:
October 31st, 2012 at 9:00 pm
Well, how else are the dims going to get a 3 point lead? The leftists still dont’ believe that 2010 occured.
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ghostofann Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Umm, the “leftists” believe in math-based math rather than faith-based math.
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Joe Carl White says:
well, try it this way
State Republican Democrat Independent Other DK/NA
FL 30 37 29 3 1
OH 29 37 30 2 2
VA 27 35 35 2 1
Source: http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/493716/the-latest-quinnipiac-university-new-york-times.pdf
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allmaya says:
Just
Another
Joe:
Do you have personal knowledge of Paul’s work and research habits?
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Anonymous says:
The Electoral College is one of the great things about the country.
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donuthin says:
The dynamic between Gov. Christie and Pres. Obama is interesting to watch as they deal with the aftermath of Sandy. Not sure of the validity of Romney’s comment that it would be like cleaning up after a football game. Surely he didn’t.
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retrocon says:
Christie is pinching himself that he gets to ride in Marine One with the “President of the United States.”
Can anyone cite anything Christie has done to help Romney get elected since he was passed over for veep? His “keynote” convention speech was a dud that centered mostly on Christie himself. Now he wants to give Obama a pedestal to stand on while slobbering the sappy praise.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Christie is plotting a White House bid in 2020 if Romney wins.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 1:38 pm
And plotting a 2016 White House bid if Obama wins.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Either way, the Dems are f*****d either way because I still have Romney winning the White House on Tuesday night.
ghostofann Reply:
November 1st, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Sour grapes, retrocon?
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retrocon says:
Sour grapes… on Christie’s part? I believe so. Christie was one of the early… uhh… heavyweights that backed Romney in the primaries.
Given how Christie is now so euphoric playing Gilligan aboard Marine One, I think he really wanted the veep selection. He recognizes that his chance to move up the political ladder has been scuttled now that Paul Ryan was conscripted to reside on the grounds of the US Naval Observatory.
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ghostofann says:
As I said, sour grapes.
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Blue Dogs says:
Christie will be stuck in Jersey for another 6 years as governor before he seeks the presidency in 2020 against Ryan after Romney’s two terms.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
And the embracing of the incumbent President these last few days by the New Jersey Governor will come back to haunt him (Christie) if indeed he does run for President down the road.
Republican voters will not simply forgive and forget something like that, and it is Republican voters who determine if Christie–or someone else–captures the Party’s nomination.
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