Davis win boosts Democrats
Democratic legislative candidates lost most of their races on election night, but there were two notable exceptions. One was Wendy Davis’s victory over Mark Shelton in the race for a Tarrant County Senate seat. With 228 of 349 precincts reporting, and only 6 outstanding, Davis had an insurmountable lead. The other bright spot for Democrats was that Galveston state representative Craig Eiland won his reelection race. And that is the extent of the good news.
The results were reminiscent of 2010, when Democrats lost every Texas House race as Republicans claimed a super-majority of the lower House. Still, Davis’s victory should temper Republicans’ enthusiasm at their near-sweep. She is precisely the kind of candidate who mirrors the Obama constituency, someone who can put together a coalition that goes outside the boundaries of race and color and party — the type of candidate, in other words, who represents the changing face of Texas (and America). Her victory propels her to prominence as one of the state’s leading Democrats. She is a rare politician who has crossover appeal to Republicans and independents. She defeated Shelton despite his support from the deep pockets of Texans for Lawsuit Reform.
Davis was not the only election night winner who represents the changing face of Texas. There was also Ted Cruz who is poised to become … what, exactly? That’s the question. Tea party zealot? Or another symbol of that “changing face?” I would also add to this list Pete Gallego, who won a grueling battle to represent Texas’s 23rd congressional district, and Julian and Joaquin Castro. Davis…Cruz…Gallego, the Castro twins: suddenly Rick Perry seems light years away from where America, and Texas, is headed.
WS says:
I haven’t seen a breakout of the vote by Senate district or Congressional district, so I can’t make a direct comparison with Davis and Gallego specifically, but it seems obvious in general there was next to no crossover voting anywhere. Even the most extreme cases where you had utter buffoons running, like Sharon Keller or Lloyd Oliver running for DA here in Harris County, crossover was less than 1.5 percent. If Davis tracked the Obama vote closely, does that tell you anything about Wendy Davis’s appeal and ability to build coalitions, or is it simply a reflection of Barack Obama’s? Davis’s win is important, obviously, in the effect it will have on the Senate. But it’s not clear that it means anything in a broader electoral contest. Ditto Pete Gallego.
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formerly elected says:
All of this might not matter once the maps are redrawn next session. We shall see…….
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anon says:
Paul; Check your facts on the ‘deep pockets’ of TLR. They pulled out of the race with 2 weeks to go and left Shelton blowing in the breeze,
He had been expecting their support and instead he was forced to go on a fundraising tour the last 2 weeks instead of campaigning.
TLR may have stung Eppstein and Wentworth, but they missed the forest for the trees.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 8:53 am
Shelton was his own worst enemy. It had nothing to do with TLR one way or the other.
Any physician (especially) who is one of only eight House members to stupidly vote AGAINST a simple bill providing for the timely and undelayed examination of rape “kits” in the custody of law enforcement in pending criminal investigations absolutely DESERVED to lose.
Shelton went down on his own merits–or should I say lack thereof?
The same could be said for that dumb Akins in Missouri and that equally brainless Mourdock in Indiana.
The lesson here is if you are a man seeking elective office who shows a lack of sensitivity to the concerns of women (who comprise the majority of the population, after all), you will go down to defeat at the ballot box.
Case closed.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 9:46 am
Indiana did keep the Governor’s Mansion in GOP hands with US Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), who some say might have presidential aspirations down the road.
As for Gov. Perry, he’s FINISHED politically for good and he knows it, I’m standing by my prediction he will NOT run again in 2014 and go for the White House again in 2016.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 10:05 am
Blue Dogs, from Perry’s perspective, he would HAVE TO run for re-election again in 2014 as Governor in order to position himself for a presidential run in 2016.
My prediction is that he DOES run for re-election as Governor in 2014 and wins (much to my disgust) and then runs for President in 2016 and loses (thank goodness). He is an embarrassment to Texas and to the Republican Party. He is also a poster child for term limits.
Indiana Pearl Reply:
November 8th, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Pence is a half-wit. Said, while walking through Baghdad while the war was still hot that it was just like walking through a farmers’ market in Indiana. Daniels is at least intelligent – wrong, but intelligent.
John Johnson Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 8:57 am
Maybe the TLR’s polls showed lots of people like my wife and I voting for Davis and Romney/Ryan, and they saw the proverbial writing on the wall. I understand that the Dem numbers in Dist 10 are now slightly higher than Repub’s but until voting is analyzed we won’t know if it was crossover votes or higher Dem turnout that gave Wendy the win. I’m guessing it was people who are starting to see how ridiculous it is to vote a straight ticket instead of voting for the person who will represent you and not some special interest group like the TLR.
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Anon. says:
Three Democratic candidates knocked off incumbents on the 4th Court of Appeals. Anybody have any insight on those races?
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Anonymous Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Lots of votes from the South. Coulc not make up ground in San Antonio. Lost some good Judges on that Court.
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South Texan says:
Senator Wendy Davis’ impressive victory indeed thrust her into the forefront as a prominent Texas Democrat who defied the odds because of her incredible skill in building coalitions and her impressive relentlessness. Bravo, Wendy!
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Tom says:
I wish Paul Begala would focus his PAC resources on a massive voter registration drive in the Hispanic community in Texas. It would be interesting to see the number of unregistered eligible Hispanic voters and the impact that would have on the state if they showed up to vote.
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Ausowl Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Or the Texas Democratic Party could try this on their own instead of lame paid media buys.
Travis County Dems too.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
As one of the commentators noted on ABC last night, this is probably the last national election in which either of the two major political party offers a ticket of two white males.
While having absolutely nothing against Paul Ryan (he would have been perfect for Office of Management and Budget), I believe that had Romney selected New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez as his Vice Presidential running mate, we would be talking about President-Elect Romney right now.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 9:47 am
Romney’s big MISTAKE was not picking Rubio as VP or even Portman, because both were from swing states.
Once he picked Ryan, people were scratching their heads saying, “what in the hell is he doing ?”
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Blue Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 11:37 am
After 2008 I thought 2004 would be the last one.
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Anonymous says:
Interesting Post:
http://texasconservativepolitics.blogspot.com/
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lobster says:
Lozano did the lobby all a favor last night. Well played.
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Don't forget El Paso says:
Wait, you overlooked Joe Moody’s defeat of Dee Margo. A win for public school supporters.
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WURSPH says:
I do not understand how you can call adding seven Democratic seats in the Texas House anything like 2010. It is not the dawn of a new Texas; only the first step on a long journey back to the majority, but it does mean that the GOP will have to work a little harder for those 2/3rd votes.
It probably will require the creation of a Democratic equivlanet of Associated Republicans of Texas and another decade to get back to 76, but the possibility is there with the changing makeup of the voting population which Obama played upon so skillfully last night.
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WURSPH says:
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Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Davis win boosts Democrats
posted by paulburka at 7:56 AM
Democratic legislative candidates lost most of their races on election night, but there were two notable exceptions. One was Wendy Davis’s victory over Mark Shelton in the race for a Tarrant County Senate seat. With 228 of 349 precincts reporting, and only 6 outstanding, Davis had an insurmountable lead. The other bright spot for Democrats was that Galveston state representative Craig Eiland won his reelection race. And that is the extent of the good news.
The results were reminiscent of 2010, when Democrats lost every Texas House race as Republicans claimed a super-majority of the lower House. Still, Davis’s victory should temper Republicans’ enthusiasm at their near-sweep. She is precisely the kind of candidate who mirrors the Obama constituency, someone who can put together a coalition that goes outside the boundaries of race and color and party — the type of candidate, in other words, who represents the changing face of Texas (and America). Her victory propels her to prominence as one of the state’s leading Democrats. She is a rare politician who has crossover appeal to Republicans and independents. She defeated Shelton despite his support from the deep pockets of Texans for Lawsuit Reform.
Davis was not the only election night winner who represents the changing face of Texas. There was also Ted Cruz who is poised to become … what, exactly? That’s the question. Tea party zealot? Or another symbol of that “changing face?” I would also add to this list Pete Gallego, who won a grueling battle to represent Texas’s 23rd congressional district, and Julian and Joaquin Castro. Davis…Cruz…Gallego, the Castro twins: suddenly Rick Perry seems light years away from where America, and Texas, is headed.
13 Responses to “Davis win boosts Democrats”
November 7th, 2012 at 8:14 am
WS says:
I haven’t seen a breakout of the vote by Senate district or Congressional district, so I can’t make a direct comparison with Davis and Gallego specifically, but it seems obvious in general there was next to no crossover voting anywhere. Even the most extreme cases where you had utter buffoons running, like Sharon Keller or Lloyd Oliver running for DA here in Harris County, crossover was less than 1.5 percent. If Davis tracked the Obama vote closely, does that tell you anything about Wendy Davis’s appeal and ability to build coalitions, or is it simply a reflection of Barack Obama’s? Davis’s win is important, obviously, in the effect it will have on the Senate. But it’s not clear that it means anything in a broader electoral contest. Ditto Pete Gallego.
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November 7th, 2012 at 8:27 am
formerly elected says:
All of this might not matter once the maps are redrawn next session. We shall see…….
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November 7th, 2012 at 8:29 am
anon says:
Paul; Check your facts on the ‘deep pockets’ of TLR. They pulled out of the race with 2 weeks to go and left Shelton blowing in the breeze,
He had been expecting their support and instead he was forced to go on a fundraising tour the last 2 weeks instead of campaigning.
TLR may have stung Eppstein and Wentworth, but they missed the forest for the trees.
Reply »
Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 8:53 am
Shelton was his own worst enemy. It had nothing to do with TLR one way or the other.
Any physician (especially) who is one of only eight House members to stupidly vote AGAINST a simple bill providing for the timely and undelayed examination of rape “kits” in the custody of law enforcement in pending criminal investigations absolutely DESERVED to lose.
Shelton went down on his own merits–or should I say lack thereof?
The same could be said for that dumb Akins in Missouri and that equally brainless Mourdock in Indiana.
The lesson here is if you are a man seeking elective office who shows a lack of sensitivity to the concerns of women (who comprise the majority of the population, after all), you will go down to defeat at the ballot box.
Case closed.
Reply »
John Johnson Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 8:57 am
Maybe the TLR’s polls showed lots of people like my wife and I voting for Davis and Romney/Ryan, and they saw the proverbial writing on the wall. I understand that the Dem numbers in Dist 10 are now slightly higher than Repub’s but until voting is analyzed we won’t know if it was crossover votes or higher Dem turnout that gave Wendy the win. I’m guessing it was people who are starting to see how ridiculous it is to vote a straight ticket instead of voting for the person who will represent you and not some special interest group like the TLR.
Reply »
November 7th, 2012 at 8:32 am
Anon. says:
Three Democratic candidates knocked off incumbents on the 4th Court of Appeals. Anybody have any insight on those races?
Reply »
November 7th, 2012 at 8:43 am
South Texan says:
Senator Wendy Davis’ impressive victory indeed thrust her into the forefront as a prominent Texas Democrat who defied the odds because of her incredible skill in building coalitions and her impressive relentlessness. Bravo, Wendy!
Reply »
November 7th, 2012 at 9:05 am
Tom says:
I wish Paul Begala would focus his PAC resources on a massive voter registration drive in the Hispanic community in Texas. It would be interesting to see the number of unregistered eligible Hispanic voters and the impact that would have on the state if they showed up to vote.
Reply »
November 7th, 2012 at 9:15 am
Distinguished Gentleman says:
As one of the commentators noted on ABC last night, this is probably the last national election in which either of the two major political party offers a ticket of two white males.
While having absolutely nothing against Paul Ryan (he would have been perfect for Office of Management and Budget), I believe that had Romney selected New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez as his Vice Presidential running mate, we would be WURSPH says:
First rule of posting: Compose on something with spell check and then post.
I do not understand how you can call adding seven Democratic seats in the Texas House anything like 2010. It is not the dawn of a new Texas; only the first step on a long journey back to the majority, but it does mean that the GOP will have to work a little harder for those 2/3rd votes.
It probably will require the creation of a Democratic equivalent of Associated Republicans of Texas and another decade to get back to 76, but the possibility is there with the changing makeup of the voting population that Obama played upon so skillfully last night.
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WURSPH says:
To perryphrase our beloved Governor:
OOPS…Somehow I picked up all that other stuff…give me another 10 years and I will figure out all this computer stuff….either that or bring back my old newsroom Royal typewriter.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 9:49 am
Perry’s FINISHED forver and he will likely leave in disgrace and deeply unpopular on January 20, 2015 once his 3rd term ends.
I don’t expect Perry to run again for a 4th term in 2014 because he saw what happened to Romney last night and he’s saying, “Holy crap. I’m the next one to fall here if I don’t start thinking about my legacy.”
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Jeff Crosby says:
You also should add Abel Herrero to the list of Democratic pickups in the State House.
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Jeff Crosby says:
And Phil Cortez.
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Gen Reply:
November 10th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Don’t forget Mary Ann Perez in HD 144 – Pasadena.
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WURSPH says:
Speaking of our Beloved Governor Oops:
Has he said anything yet about the President’s victory last night? I have little hope that he will say something less strident than usual…You know that pledge to work together for the best of the country, etc. Instead, we may hear more about the downfall of America and the need to continue to fight Satan’s attack on all we believe.
My basic question about Perry is: Does he really believe what he says?
I know he is poorly educated and intellectually shallow, but he does have a sort of native intelligence, which suggests that all of this could be political show. I almost wish that were true. I would rather have a scheming Machiavellian governor than a one so totally out of touch with what America is today.
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@ WURSPH Reply:
November 9th, 2012 at 10:40 am
I think it is a hybrid combination of both. He is poorly educated and intellectually shallow, morally as well. But, he does learn things, and as he learns them, he becomes scheming Machiavellian governor.
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Anonymous says:
Paul,
Redistricting bailed them out in the urban counties. Robert Miklos came close. Check out Jeb Hensarling’s numbers in Dallas. The GOP is losing support in NE Dallas, Mesquite, and Garland fast. Robbins was close in 105. The Dems probably win three seats under the old maps. They will win 113 and 107, and 105 in the next few election cycles.
The whats left of Texas Democratic stars are Veasey, Davis, and Chris Turner. They need to do better with the fiscally conservative social moderate creative class in the surburban office parks, and of course wake up the latino vote. They need to start in Tarrant since that looks like the bellweather county. The current leadership may not do this or have the resources to, but if they want to be relevent soon they should.
On the GOP side, hats off to Jason Villabla. I admit he will be a star.
Texian Politico you were wrong about Virginia and most of the battleground states.
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WURSPH says:
I promise no more for today BUT:
Did the Democratic showing in the U.S. Senate races yesterday kill any chances of Sen. Cornyn moving up in the Senate GOP leadership? After all, why reward failure?
If it did that will get Ted “Rand” Cruz off the hook since he will not have to explain why he voted against his colleague from Texas.
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Alan Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 11:11 am
This isn’t John Cornyn’s fault, WURSPH. He can’t control who registered Republicans in their state primaries vote for. He tried to get Todd Akin to leave quietly and he refused.
Indiana and Missouri’s races showed that the gap between the GOP primary electorate and mainstream voters keeps getting bigger. When the people choosing your party’s candidates are getting so much older, so much whiter, so much more conservative than the general election voters, you’re going to get more Akins and Mourdochs.
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Pat Reply:
November 8th, 2012 at 12:55 am
And if the past two election cycles are any indication, those folks aren’t going away quietly. They’re going to keep voting for the Murdock’s and Akin’s of the world. I don’t know how the GOP breaks that cycle. I just can’t imagine young people and minorities standing in line with angry old white guys to vote in a Republican primary.
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The People's Elbow says:
Is TLR really peddling the story that they “pulled out” of SD10 in the last two weeks? That is quite simply the funniest thing I have ever heard.
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@ WURSPH Reply:
November 9th, 2012 at 10:46 am
I agree with Distinguished Gentleman. Unfortunately, TLR did pull-out at the very end, they got good intel and good polls telling them they were wasting their money. One might ask, why does it matter with only two weeks left to go? For this reason exactly, it upstages Wendy and the Dems victory, makes it less of a W if TLR “gave up.” It leads people to believe that TLR did something smart. And then starts the chatter.
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Blue Dogs says:
Burka, if you’re Governor Perry and you saw Obama defeat Romney last night, what would you do ?
A. Run for a 4th term even though you could LOSE which hurts your 2016 White House bid
B. Win re-election to a 4th term, but it’ll be tougher than 2010 was.
C. Decide to retire from the TX Governor’s Mansion and go straight to the 2016 presidential campaign.
You know Greg Abbott is watching Perry’s moves very CLOSELY.
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Distinguished Gentleman says:
To The People’s Elbow:
While TLR may have–as Paul describes it–”deep pockets” nevertheless they are not stupid.
If TLR sees that sharing money with an idiot candidate, who is likely to lose in an otherwise winnable district, would be like flushing dollars down the toilet, of course TLR won’t share its resources with that dumb candidate.
Those who have “deep pockets” also have enough intelligence not to just throw money away. After all, isn’t that how they got the “deep pockets” in the first place?
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WURSPH says:
Perry answered my question. See the AP story below.
At least he did not talk about Satan…but friendly, the people have spoken…hope we can all work together for the best of the country…it certainly IS NOT!
Sounds like he thinks he is off and running for 2016…Too bad for him, for Texas and for the nation.
AUSTIN, Texas —
Gov. Rick Perry is calling for the repeal of the White House-backed federal health care reform law and urging Washington to stop trampling states’ rights.
In a statement Wednesday reacting to Barack Obama’s re-election, Perry said Obama has “a chance to start over” and should “take steps this time to govern responsibly.”
He said the president “can put an end to his reckless disregard for our rule of law and spare our nation another long, painful and expensive four years.”
Perry briefly sought the Republican presidential nomination against Mitt Romney but flamed out after a series of public gaffes.
He said voters must force Obama and Congress “to once and for all cut spending, repeal Obamacare and withdraw federal encroachment into state decision-making and personal liberties.”
Copyright The Associated Press
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texun Reply:
November 7th, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Perry’s ghosts came up with the usual trite phrases, but I don’t beieve for a minute that he actually understands many of them.
On the constructive side, his coming proposal to introduce indentured servitude in Texas as a solution to unemployment will probably get him more national attention and lots of approval from Fox News and the WSJ. I hear that Romney liked the idea because it would solve the “servant problem” but that his ultraliberal advisors canned the idea at the last moment.
Of the course, the fallacy with that proposal is that it is unnecessary: sustained underfunding of education and the attraction of many more minimum wage and split-shift jobs will accomplish most of the same economic, social, and political objectives.
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angelo says:
Here is some amateur number crunching on Davis/Shelton vs. Romney/Obama votes in the two most conservative precincts in District 10. Precinct 4130 (Overton Park)had over 80% turnout and went Shelton 1146/Davis 677 or 63/37%. P4130 went Romney 1318/Obama 511 or 71/28%. Precinct 4182 (Tanglewood) went Shelton 1221/Davis 750 or 62/38%. P4182 went Romney 1355/Obama 619 or 67/31%. So, in Overton Park, the presidential spread was 43 % pts and the senate spread was only 26 % pts. In Overton Park the spreads were 36 % pts and 24 % pts. Given how conservative those two neighborhoods are, I’d say Wendy Davis performed very well and she did even better in the neighborhoods closer to TCU. This is just a guess but my bet is that the difference was that the Volvo driving soccer moms feel like the state Republicans have turned their backs on public schools and Wendy positioned herself as a public school advocate.
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@ angelo Reply:
November 9th, 2012 at 10:54 am
Smartest thing Davis ever did was the last minute “filibuster,” last session for public schools. Automatic teacher vote. Also, doesn’t hurt that THE PEOPLE ARE WAKING UP.
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No Le Hace says:
It is true TLR bailed out two weeks out. They didn’t like the way the campaign was being run is what I hear…they also placed all their own ad buys to keep Epstein from lining his pockets. Y
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Pat says:
Burka?–Dems picked up a number of seats last night in the state House. As far as things go for Texas Dems, it wasn’t that bad.
If Obama has proved anything, its that Texas Dems’ problems lie with the Texas Democratic Party. The March 2008 primaries revealed millions of enthusiastic Democratic voters who previously lacked only motivation and organization. Obama’s 2012 reelection reaffirmed that proposition by way of other hispanic-heavy states. Texas Democrats need to get with the program, and get boots on the ground in their urban and South Texas strongholds.
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Bodhisattva says:
Just got back to the BurkaBlog after a sanity respite. Paul, I beg to differ with you here:
“The results were reminiscent of 2010, when Democrats lost every Texas House race as Republicans claimed a super-majority of the lower House.”
How is an election where Democrats picked up seven seats in the House and held their own in the Senate “like 2010?”
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anon says:
No Le Hace:
If effect, what you are saying, is that TLR’s hatred of Eppstein was greater than their hatred of Trial Lawyer Wendy Davis?
This came down to a personality conflict between Eppstein and Dick Tribulsi re the Wentworth race. (plenty of blame there)
There is enough ego to go around here, but for a group that is supposed to be leading the fight for “Tort Reform’ they seemingly missed the boat.
My theory is that they are tired of spending all the $ and being the ATM machine. This was the scare the $h1^ out of the natives tour. They know tort reform isn’t backsliding anytime soon. Go around the room once last time, kick a few tails on the R side just to make sure everyone understands that they will come in and slice you if you get out of line..
How do you think any of the Senators feel after they endorsed Shelton over Davis? How should they look at TLR after this stunt?
To Distinguished Gentleman: Many of us have watched TLR pour millions of $$$ into bad candidate after bad candidate. Their track record isn’t good. Sure it is easy to claim victory with Rs in R seats, but they are not over .500 in contested races. Take away the 2010 Anti-Obama wave and it gets really bad.
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John Johnson says:
I don’t believe there is anything that more TLR dollars would have done for Shelton. His personal attack ads were a turn off. There was nothing there. On the other hand, her attacking his voting record was affective, and the list of those who endorsed her impressive. I would also venture a guess that minds were made up weeks before the vote.
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Bevo's Brain says:
I hear Eppstein is getting his political candidate/officeholder clients to cal his lobby clients, asking them to keep him on because he is really needed. Pathetic – and scummy, scummy, scummy.
And it makes you wonder how many more times TMA is going to go down this road and how long it will be before their members start demanding changes in their staff or structure. Eppstein time and time again drives them into brick walls, and they keep handing him the car keys.
Frankly, it ought to be illegal to lobby your political clients and illegal for a Legislator to arrange for their campaign consultant to get third to lobby them. But hey, this is Texas!
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anon at 8:34 says:
I like your numbers at the end and I like where you’re going with that, but it’s utopian. I’m afraid whoever said it was right, TLR simply missed the forest for the trees. Despite the Wentworth/Eppstein and TLR/Tribulsi ego clash that was SD-25, TLR is not going away anytime soon, they will continue to be the ATM machine.
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Blue Dogs says:
Burka, who the TX Dems should recruit to run for statewide office:
1. Wendy Davis for Lieutenant Governor(most powerful office in state government)
2. Castro for Governor
3. Watson for TX State AG
4. Hobby for US Senator or Governor
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