Campbell, Davis draw two-year terms
As a result, Donna Campbell will have a very short time to get adjusted to the Senate before she has to defend her seat in a Republican primary. A four-year term would have solved that problem. Several members from San Antonio are thought to have their eyes on the seat, most notably Lyle Larson. It is also conceivable that a Democrat could get in the race.
Wendy Davis’s two-year term is a blow to Democrats, who had hoped that she would be their next statewide candidate (Julian Castro having taken himself out of the running). Davis, who won her seat against Mark Shelton by less than 6,500 votes, faces the near-certain prospect of a race for reelection against a Republican before she can think about running statewide. Unless she decides to run in 2014, she will have to wait until 2018.
The complete list of results can be found here.
Pri-ista says:
A blow?
Davis is used to running against well-funded Republicans.
You talked about a good loss, well this could be a good loss…or win.
If Davis plays it safe, then she is running against a Castro. Which she could win but not without a bloody primary.
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paulburka Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 11:39 am
Davis is a very successful politician. She beat the Republican party, TLR, you name it. Shelton was no match for her. If she runs statewide, she would have crossover appeal and a solid fundraising base. How do the Republicans attack her? As a liberal? That would have worked two or three years ago, but views that were in vogue two or three years ago are no longer in vogue today.
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Pat says:
I guess the Lite Guv race could be wide open by the general election depending on how the Dew maneuvers. A Combs/Dewhurst/Staples primary would be a blast. Imagine: Incompetent versus Maladroit versus Aggie.
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Juanita Manziel Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:44 pm
RUNOFF: Todd Football 44, Incompetent 7.
Maladroit to the Independence Bowl.
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Sir Winston Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:46 pm
I think Combs shifts her sights to challenge Cornyn. If you’re a DC GOP incumbent right now, you’re vulnerable in the Primary regardless of who you are.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 5:06 pm
Combs running for United States Senator ?
HA-HA-HA.
That will never happen because Cornyn will destroy her and you know it. She might be better off staying put as Comptroller and build a legacy because she’s NOT getting any younger.
BCinBCS Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 12:15 am
Combs to run for the Senate?
Winston, I’ll have what you’re drinking!
paulburka Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 10:09 am
If anyone is going to do something like that, it would be Dan Patrick. He would be a real problem for Cornyn. But Combs’ conservative credentials are wishy-washy; a few months of sucking up to Michael Quinn Sullivan won’t get her there.
Texian Politico Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 3:38 pm
Patterson will win the LtGov race.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 5:07 pm
Texian, it’s looking very likely Patterson will be the next Lieutenant Governor, but will Dewhurst keep up with his promise in seeking a 4th term or will he retire ?
In my personal opinion, Perry will NOT run again for a 4th term because Abbott will eat him for breakfast and he knows it. I expect Rick to finish out his 3rd full term, then go for President again in 2016.
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donuthin Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:23 pm
How can Perry be smart enough to know that Abbot will eat him for breakfast, but dumb enough to think he will be a viable candidate for president?
Dave Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 7:42 am
Perry’s just in it for the maple syrup.
I'm Pavlov. Ring a Bell? says:
“A Combs/Dewhurst/Staples primary would be a blast. Imagine: Incompetent versus Maladroit versus Aggie.”
Pat, seeing as you’re not a fan of any of those, who again is the person you’ll be casting your vote for? Someone from the party that hasn’t won a statewide race since we were last embroiled in the Cold War? Lol…
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Blue Dogs Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:41 pm
Who would be favored in the GOP primary for Lieutenant Governor in 2014 ?
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Pat Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 11:24 pm
Actually, Pavlov?, I’m a Jerry Patterson fan. I was being facetious above.
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paulburka Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 11:42 am
I can’t take sides in this forum. I think Patterson is the dark horse.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 11:20 am
Burka, will Combs stay put as Comptroller because she’s getting older and older.
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Yellow Page Lawyer says:
Davis ran with Obama twice. And in 2014 she could be running in an altered district.
In a midterm years she could get her skirt blown off, especially if somebody other than Eppstein runs the campaign against her. My hunch is she moves up to run for Governor.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:40 pm
Texas Dems will have to find another sacrficial lamb in 2014 because Abbott will win in a massive landslide as governor and the TX GOP sweeps all statewide offices again.
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Kenneth D. Franks Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 9:48 am
If the districts are altered again, it could void just fifteen running again If it were a complete redistricting wouldn’t things change?
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Anonymous says:
Davis drawing a two year term just cost a bunch of Austin Dem consultants big money. Yep, its rice and beans for another two years, fellas. I think the Rs run someone against her, and without the presidential voters, have a much better chance to win that seat. Usually the Dems count on a 3 point drop in the mid terms. And all those other races that would count on women coming out of the woodwork for Wendy! Guv!, well, they’ll go back to sleep. Absent seismic shifts nationally, 2014 will be a super sleepy general election cycle in Texas, after the Rs sort out who is running things in their primary.
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John Johnson Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 3:57 pm
I love this type of goofy soothsaying. I’ve read the same spiel here from Paul and you, or people like you, the last two elections in Dist. 10. It seems like you would learn something after getting your plow cleaned both previous tries. Do you have some sort of learning disability?
Wendy is not you average politician. When is this going to get through to you? I’m a conservative. Always have been. I just moderated in the last 6 years and started taking serious looks at issues and people. Wendy is more a centrist than a died in the wool Dem. She is savvy. Big time sharp. Doesn’t spend time on nonsense issues and bills. Does not let gay and abortion issues define her. Does not kowtow to Big Money.
You Repub blowhards just keep underestimating her. It’s the greatest favor you could do for the State of Texas.
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Jerry Only Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 9:39 pm
i hope youre right, but i think wendys going to wind up annihilated in a mid term race. if she loses, im not really sure what becomes of her political career.
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paulburka Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 11:46 am
I agree with John Johnson. Davis is different. Her constituency is different. She speaks to mainstream issues. I think she is viable in a statewide race.
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Just Another Joe Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 2:36 pm
Paul, that comment has you losing creditability at the rate of MQS.
Still a true fan, Burka! says:
Disappointing link to Lyle Larson, are we really just linking to the house page now Burka? Snoozefest. If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t link at all.
I agree with both Pri-ista and Yellow Page, big gamble playing it safe at this point, so why not?!
Eppstein… Eppstein… that name rings a bell… oh! the same Eppstein that ran 20+ year Wentworth’s campaign into the ground?! Yup, run in 2014 Wendy! You go girl!
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paulburka Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 11:48 am
What did I have to say that was not nice? I think Larson is a good member, My sense is that San Antonio wants a resident state senator, and it will probably be Lyle Larson.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 12:48 pm
Isn’t it possible that Elizabeth Ames Jones might try again for that State Senate seat?
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Blue Dogs Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 11:21 am
Or Elizabeth Ames Jones might run for another statewide office in 2014 like Agriculture Commissioner or maybe Comptroller if Combs moves on.
Dr. Steven Watkins says:
Paul,
As one who prefers Democrats, I would say that Senator Wendy Davis is in an influential position in terms of what gets done in this Legislature. Every time the Republican politicians shoot their mouths off or thwart her, they only raise her profile. Thanks to Rick Perry, David Dewhurst, and others, she is fast becoming known in this state. Every one is looking at her or knows about her in the Legislature, thanks to these clowns. You cannot buy this kind of publicity!!
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Texian Politico says:
Campbell will be safe in that district, especially in a GOP primary. Don’t forget that she destroyed Wentworth in the run-off by something like 67-33 if I remember correctly. That’s an impressive feat. Larson would be on a fool’s errand to oppose her.
Davis on the other hand is highly vulnerable. Even just a slight decline in Dem turnout will doom her.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 5:56 pm
Perhaps Campbell will run instead for Congress in 2014.
After all, wasn’t Lamar Smith one of those few Republicans who broke ranks and voted with Obama on New Year’s Day relative to the “fiscal cliff”?
Perhaps Campbell could defeat Lamar Smith and be the Congresswoman in 2014 that she dreamed of being in 2010.
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Texian Politico Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 8:54 am
That’s a good point. Smith has been in congress since 1986 and could be potentially vulnerable to a challenger from the right, especially if someone like Club for Growth targeted him. The odds are still better however that he either retires or is reelected and that Campbell stays in the senate.
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Orale! Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:55 pm
Wentworth lost to Campbell and for the most part they voted against him not for her. Bexar County will put up a strong candidate like either County Commissioner Kevin Wolff, State Rep Larson etc. Yes, I really think Donna is more suited for congress. She sounded more like a candidate running for federal office than someone running for state during last years campaign.
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Pat Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 11:27 pm
I can see Kevin Wolff getting into that race and making chicken soup out of Campbell. #classypuns
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Texian Politico Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 8:56 am
What would the case against her be? She’s too conservative? How often has that worked in today’s GOP, especially in Texas?
paulburka Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 11:51 am
I think it’s just the opposite. I think Davis will win and Campbell will lose.
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 12:53 pm
I can see a scenario whereby Campbell shifts gears and goes after Lamar Smith in a 2014 congressional campaign and then Elizabeth Ames Jones, taking advantage of an open seat with no incumbent, comes back in 2014 to accomplish the task that she set out to do in 2012.
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Alan Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 6:33 pm
Why doesn’t she just dispense with the pretense and create a PAC called the Committee to Get Elizabeth Ames Jones a Day Job?
Orale! Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 5:46 am
I say if Campbell challenges Lamar Smith he will retire! She knows the federal healthcare flaws well and thrives in that arena. Lamar has been there since 1987! Time to go!
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Tom says:
I suppose a Republican could defeat Senator Davis, until that Republican notes you can’t get pregnant from being raped and then goes on to repeat all the other Republican talking points that drive women away from voting Republican.
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Not Sure says:
Texian, you aren’t suggesting that Campbell got that many votes FOR her are you? 2/3rds of the primary voted against Wentworth and 2/3rds of the runoff voted against Wentworth.
Lyle Larson is no Jeff Wentworth. He lacks the baggage and the perceptual challenges. But he is also from San Antonio, and they are not pleased about their state senator being from New Braunfels.
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Garner's Bucket Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:00 pm
Correct on all counts.
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Not an editor.... Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 9:22 pm
Not pleased? Well, I guess they should have got the Hell out and voted, then.
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Texian Politico Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 8:58 am
No one will ever know how many votes were for Campbell or against Wentworth. It’s six one way and half a dozen the other. The bottom line is Campbell is safe in that district unless she has some sort of ethical scandal derail her.
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Just Another Joe says:
Paul, you missed the mark. The reason Davis’ drawing is a blow to democrats is because now she has to run in an election climate that – should historical trends stay true – will not favor the incumbent party…her party.
Remember the blasting that R’s took in Bush’s 2nd midterm election? Remember the blasting that D’s took in Obama’s first midterm election (that Davis was lucky to skip)? Well, Davis better gear up for that.
More productive though, Davis better just start packing up her office after session ends. The straws determined it for her. Come 2014…it’s over.
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Anonymous Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:15 pm
Just another bit of wishful thinking from a blind R who can’t believe that many R’s have helped elect Davis to two terms in office in a predominantly R district. I predict more will do so next time around because she does her job better than anyone in Austin, because she is smarter and more capable of writing good bills than most, and because she will be doing so this session.
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Anonymous Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 10:42 pm
No, he right — with the rise of the Internet and 24/7 cable news over the past two decades, midterm elections have become more and more nationalized over the years — the inital GOP blowout in ’94 wasn’t just due to Texas voters being irked at Ann Richards and other state Democrats, it was because they were irked at Bill Clinton and the Democratic House and Senate, and turned out in large volumes.
The weakest year since then for the Republicans was the ’06 midterms, when Perry came close to going down at the same time in Washington the Democrats took over the House and Senate. State issues still matter more, but they’re weighted less than they used to be compared to the national ones, because those issues get played out on TV and online every day.
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John Johnson Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 7:15 am
Did all of you Repub prognosticators have the same professor? Go to the same school?
You use past midterms as examples, but fail to realize how many Texas Republican’s might feel about Texas Republican legislators after this session is over…not to mention the governorship and lt. gov positions.
Based on what I’m seeing, I expect Repub’s to blow an even bigger hole in their foot this go round.
Deny it, overlook it, discount its importance if you want to. People don’t like what’s going on. Perry’s meltdown opened their eyes. They watch Abbott modeling himself after Perry and catering to the same radical fringe.
Maybe you guys can’t see the forest for the trees. You want to deny that Repub’s like me elected Wendy and that more will do so if she continues to tackle issues important to us like education, out of whack insurance rates, cronyism, etc.
Anonymous Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 9:29 am
Individual candidates can go against the tide in off-year elections and win, and Davis also stands to benefit from the current state of the Texas economy — as long as things remain good, if you’re a long-term Democrat in a non-safe district, you can use your familiarity and Texas’ economic success to basically run an “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it,” type of campaign.
As long as people know your face and know you’re not trying to tear the house down (or the Senate, so to speak), but want to make adjustments along the edges, you can escape any nationalization of the midterm state elections. That’s pretty much the path Davis can take, though it will depend on both how the state’s doing economically 18 months from now and what, if any, hot-button issues Democrats in Washington are touting (i.e., were they to go on an 18-mnoth push on gun control doesn’t figure to produce many dividends for Democrats in Texas come the midterms).
Blue Dogs says:
Obama’s window of pushing for immigration reform is THIS YEAR and that’s it because it’s a closing window and with 2014 coming near, the midterms could be total hell for Dems.
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WUSRPH says:
What about Dan Patrick? What does a two-year term do to his plans (if any) to be master of us all?
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:35 pm
He owns dems.
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Anonymous Reply:
January 23rd, 2013 at 10:49 pm
He’s got a decision to make on whether on not he wants to target one of the statewide incumbent Republicans (barring an open seat if someone like Combs opts to try and move up). It kind of goes back to the old line “When you strike at a king, you must kill him” — if Patrick tries to move up against an incumbent Republican and fails, he’s left without a political job to base his power off of for at least two years. He can go back to talk radio, but it’s 50-50 he’d end up being Texas’ version of J.D. Hayworth after he lost his congressional seat — he’d still have a voice, but he’d have less and less relevancy in Austin, as other ambitious conservative pols move in to fill the vacuum.
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Texian Politico says:
Being a J.D. Hayworth should give Patrick nightmares.
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Just Another Joe says:
All you people who think Davis can win in a swing district in a Obama mid-term…I will see you on November 5th outside of her capitol office door and I’ll bring the beer for the “watch her pack up the office” party.
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John Johnson Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 9:56 am
You are just as cockfire sure as the others who predicted Davis’ crushing defeats the last two times she has run. Must just be a gut feeling you’ve got, or maybe a surpressed desire, cause it sure isn’t based on reality.
You don’t know squat about Texas Senate Dist. 10.
If she has another great session, more like me will fall in behind her. There is not another politician in the state with the bi-partisan support has, and will, receive.
Go hide somewhere and watch.
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Texian Politico Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 10:38 am
John Johnson,
I know you really like Wendy Davis, but the bottom line is that there are fewer ticket splitting voters than ever before. I’d be curious to see what the presidential vote total was in SD10 this year and compare it with the results of that senate race. I bet they are pretty similar. 2014 will be a harder race for Davis than any she faced in 2008 or last year with Obama at the top of the ticket to draw out Dem voters. I’m not saying she’s a sure goner, but the odds are against her more this time.
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paulburka Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 12:29 pm
I bet they weren’t similar. Wendy gets a lot of crossover (ticketsplitting) votes. She also gets a lot of crossover money.
John Johnson Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 2:22 pm
I have never talked about Texas as a whole, TP. I have always addressed the fact that Senate Dist. 10 dances to a different tune than othes out there. The voters know Sen. Davis. They learned what a straight shooter she was while taking on special interestson as a member of the Fort Worth city council. I’m in Arlington. I grew to respect her smarts and her actions. Others like me have. More moderate Repubs around the state, as they get to know her, are going to learn to like her, too.
Kenneth D. Franks says:
Are you buying the beer at Sholz Garten if she wins? I will be there if you’re buying.
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John Johnson Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 10:23 am
Havent been there in years. The last time might have been a Bored Martyrs chugging contest out back under the trees in the late ’60′s. Wonder if anyone besides me remembers those.
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Kenneth D. Franks Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 10:48 am
I had a night class at U.T. the day I turned 21. It was a Water Safety Instructor class in the basement of Gregory gym in the old pool. Having a beer before that class was not an option. I did have a beer at Sholz about 10:30 that night just to say I bought my first legal beer in Texas there.
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Just Another Joe Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 11:13 am
JJ -
For the record, I thought Davis would win in ’08 and I gave her the edge in ’12 after seeing the political climate not take the shape that Republicans had hoped for.
As far as Davis’ career goes, I am 2 for 2 in predicting her outcome at the ballot box. And I bet you in 22 months I will be 3 for 3.
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John Johnson Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 12:01 pm
You’re on. You are basing your prediction on how things normally work; Me, on a perceived change in the air. We’ll see.
Leslie Knope says:
So much right going on in this thread today, EXCEPT, Campbell. You people are blind.
Relevant sources tell me this: It was a warm November day in Texas, and Speaker Straus called the newly elected Senator Elect to his office to tell her that SA water is a big issue and she should consider joining some of the SA water boards. The good doctor’s response: “no I don’t need them, they all just need to go away.” I suspect her conversation w the Dew about which cmtes she wanted was a similar situation. The votes were definitely against Wentworth, it’s Lyle Larson’s seat if he wants it.
It should be at least a yellow flag when the Lite Guv doesn’t put you on the cmte. for the industry that you practice in, AKA health & human. That or Grandma Nelson refused to babysit!
You heard it here first:
Gov: RP goes quietly, just long enough for Texans to wonder what he’s up to (possibly miss him) and cast their vote for President. Abbott and Dew run, Abbott wins, OR they come to some kind of gentelman’s agreement (favorable to Dew).
Lite Guv: Patterson (Dew isn’t staying put, semi-confirmed this morning at Triblive)
Senator Davis: Whatever the hell she wants. I suspect that John Johnson is in the minority here, regardless WD has a huge following, and it’s a whole different breed. She is everything they want right now and nothing that they don’t. She shoots straight and isn’t afraid to be vocal about it. It’s the same reason Patterson will win whatever he runs for. Straight shooter. This session will make or break her entire political career, my guess is that she won’t go down without a fight, and as mentioned above, the boys club that fights back only fuels her following.
Sir Winston is not drunk, he’s spot on, keywords there: DC GOP incumbent. Anti-incumbency is alive and well in this state! Enter lobbyists.
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John Johnson Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 12:35 pm
Leslie…well stated.
Years ago, Campbell would have appealed to me. Now, I compare her brashness and ego to Wendy’s reserved demeanor, and proclivity for jumping into the middle of issues that matter to most of us…and being on the majority’s side on these, to boot.
Campbell carries all the traits that are beginning to turn people off…especially moderate Repub’s.
The Boy’s Club you reference, and their $ are mighty foes. I’m betting on Wendy to draw more attention and bi-partisan support this session. It is much harder for money to sway a wide awake, knowledgeable, informed voter. I see voters waking up…slowly but surely.
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Orale! Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 5:56 am
This is exactly what I mean that she doesn’t have a full grasp of important issues in her district like water. She jumped into a race right out of a federal campaign running on the same issues. She doesn’t understand water which is a huge issue in her district. Nor does she feel like she needs to learn. Nor does she understand the issues of her district. She’s from Austin County and the hill country has way different issues! Bexar county business community will not be on her side. She needs Bexar and her opponents will not have the same baggage Wentworth had.
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Blue Dogs Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 11:24 am
Leslie, you know most Texans will deep down miss Perry because they won’t have anything to trash him on in the blogs or news media because he’s been in office for so long.
On the other down-ballot statewide offices:
Attorney General-OPEN: Rumored candidates include US Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX: getting bored in DC), former TX Supreme Court Justice Dale Wainwright (R), Dan Branch, and maybe Combs.
Comptroller: depending on what Combs does.
Land Commissioner: George P. Bush will run for this gig and will likely boost his profile across the state.
Agriculture Commissioner: I’m hearing Glen Hegar is interested in running for this post since Staples is running for Lieutenant Governor.
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Leslie Knope says:
Oh yeah, add Senator Hegar for Comptroller.
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Yellow Page Lawyer says:
Oh Leslie, we need to get you on medication and get you a good therapeutic hobby.
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Francine Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 1:53 pm
..and perhaps you need an active law practice YPL.
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Yellow Page Lawyer Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 3:06 pm
Now Francine, I make more money in an our than you will all year…that is active enough for me.
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Francine Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 3:27 pm
Wanna bet YPL?
SanAntonioGal says:
Leslie, don’t forget about Elizabeth Ames Jones. True, Lyle Larson would give Dr. Campbell a run for her money but, if Dr. Campbell is still afflicted with the “Potomic fever” that she had in 2010 with her race against Lloyd Doggett, and if she decides that 2014 is a good time to “purify” the GOP by unseating Lamar Smith in a Republican Primary, then Elizabeth Ames Jones possibly could re-emerge as a viable San Antonio-based candidate for State Senate District 25.
Remember, too, that Wentworth, Campbell, and Jones were all closely bunched together numbers-wise in the May primary. Jones was a close third place finisher, not a distant third place finisher.
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JohnBernardBooks says:
Elizabeth Ames Jones scares the SA elitists, both dems and repubs. Speaker Straus flinches everytime I mention her.
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Alan Reply:
January 24th, 2013 at 6:39 pm
Does he flinch before or after he tells you to get that dirty squeegie away from his windshield and get out of the way before the light turns green?
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SanAntonioGal says:
What is it about EAJ that “scares” them?
How frequently do you have personal conversations with Speaker Straus?
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Senate District 25 says:
If Ms. Jones does run again for this seat in 2014, assuming no incumbent, she would be wise to get a different consultant.
Todd Olson doesn’t do a very good job.
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Leslie Knope says:
JJ–thanks, I always enjoy your posts. I agree, the boys club and their $ are nice, but that will only get you so far at the ballot box, SEE: TLR this last go-round.
I haven’t forgoten about EAJ, I just don’t think she’s all that relevant, like SAGal said, she was a third place finisher. My money is on LL, he’s well-liked in the district, reasonable, and has the name rec.
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angelo says:
On Davis, this is copied from a post I made the day after the election. I would not bet against her winning that seat again in 2014: Here is some amateur number crunching on Davis/Shelton vs. Romney/Obama votes in the two most conservative precincts in District 10. Precinct 4130 (Overton Park)had over 80% turnout and went Shelton 1146/Davis 677 or 63/37%. P4130 went Romney 1318/Obama 511 or 71/28%. Precinct 4182 (Tanglewood) went Shelton 1221/Davis 750 or 62/38%. P4182 went Romney 1355/Obama 619 or 67/31%. So, in Overton Park, the presidential spread was 43 % pts and the senate spread was only 26 % pts. In Tanglewood the spreads were 36 % pts and 24 % pts. Given how conservative those two neighborhoods are, I’d say Wendy Davis performed very well and she did even better in the neighborhoods closer to TCU in other precincts. This is just a guess but my bet is that the difference was that the Volvo driving soccer moms feel like the state Republicans have turned their backs on public schools and Wendy positioned herself as a public school advocate.
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John Johnson says:
Thanks for reporting, angelo. While I expect this pertinent info might sink into a few craniums, most will deny and deflect it. They are blind to the fact that all Texas voters are not straight ticket voters….especially up here in Dist. 10 where we have learned to appreciate straight talk, 110% effort, classy demeanor, smarts and a dedication for staying focused on the issues that are important to us all.
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angelo Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 1:52 pm
JJ -
People seem to have forgotten that although SW Fort Worth is pretty solid Republican, it did elect Dan Barrett in a special election and a large part of that district has twice elected an openly gay city councilman. The district is also home to Tanglewood Elementary and Paschal High School and it’s feeder schools and preserving the excellent public education provided in the district is a very high priority for most voters. I have already received multiple chain e-mails re: opposition to private school vouchers and I feel pretty comfortable in saying that the folks on the e-mail chain are 80-90 Republicans. Anyone who represents that district should tread lightly where public school finance issues are concerned.
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Beanie the Counter says:
Municipal elections have a completely different voter model, so the comparison is n/a. Ditto for special elections.
But Senator Davis does appeal to Republican women, seniors and Reagan Democrats who care about public schools and healthcare. And she is just damn attractive. That never hurts in politics. Dr. Shelton is almost as wide as Java the Hut and he is a terrible campaigner. And then there was that consultant he hired – Eppstein. Ugh.
Davis has demonstrated how to put the coalition together to win that is a blueprint for the future. It is probably not yet viable on a statewide basis yet in 2014 – especially against Greg Abbott.
But Democrats have to start fighting for the top prize. In 2 of the last four elections for Governor, they have put up a candidate who had no realistic chance of winning. Davis is the D’s best hope. It may take a couple of whacks at the piñata to get there, but the effort would be worth it if they could pull it off by 2018.
I say she has to take the long haul view and go for it even if she has to run twice. Lots of Democrats have had to run multiple times to win. The current crowd running the Texas Democrat Party have forgotten that. They need a fighter, they need Wendy Davis.
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Francine Reply:
January 25th, 2013 at 3:52 pm
You bring up some interesting points, Beanie. Oh, and you were 100% right on the District 97 special election. There were 4 GOP candidates and one D (Barrett). The GOP vote was so split that the proverbial “yellow dog” would have won. (no offense Dan)….
I don’t know how she will fare in SD 10 in a non presidential year. So, if she has real risk of losing her Senate seat, is she better off (in the grand scheme of things) to lose a statewide race that may improve her profile overall to help with a subsequent run?
I don’t know. What do you experts think?
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angelo Reply:
January 27th, 2013 at 5:46 pm
I agree that special elections have different voter models but I have to make one correction. The special election in district 97 did have a one on one run-off with Barrett and Shelton after Shelton was the top R in the initial phase.
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Francine Reply:
January 28th, 2013 at 1:22 pm
That’s right, Angelo. I had forgotten that runoff.
poindexter says:
Is two years long enough for Campbell to find a house and job that are actually in her district?
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Distinguished Gentleman Reply:
January 28th, 2013 at 12:34 am
Isn’t Campbell’s official domicile now in New Braunfels?
That IS in the district.
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poindexter Reply:
January 28th, 2013 at 11:17 am
Where does she take her homestead exemption? Also according to the info she provided the Tribune she works in Columbus and Houston. Seems like a far comute from New Braunfels, especially when you own a home in Columbus. As a resident of District 25, I would like a Senator that actually lives in the district.
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John Johnson says:
In a gov race Wendy is going to have money, and she is going to have a priority list that does not have things like voter I.D., mega clips and give-a-ways to big business at the top.
Schools, roads, out of whack insurance rates, and high energy costs have been issues she has homed in on. I would not expect these to change. Unlike our current gov, she is smart and does not need handlers to supply talking points before delivering or answering a question on pertinent topics.
If you did not change a thing about her… she did not change her views on any given topic…and you just put an “R” behind her name, I think she would be the next governor and elected by a wide margin.
Why is it that we put so much importance on the party? We once thought it was a difference in fiscal responsibility, but now know that this is not true. While a Repub is seeking pork and taking care of cronies, a Dem is seeking pork and taking care of commonbreds. Both are spending too much.
So that gets us down to our feelings about gay rights and abortion. As a conservative with a gay brother, my thoughts have moderated. They should be entitled to all rights afforded married couples….just don’t call it marriage. Talking with women who have had abortions makes me realize that it is a very tough decision for them that I have no business being a part of….just don’t expect taxpayers to pay for it.
Get these two issues out of the way and the entire view changes for most, I’m thinking. It certainly changed my perspective.
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