The Speaker’s Race: The McHaig letter
With Election Day quickly approaching, it has become clear to many conservatives that a Democratic takeover of the Texas House of Representatives is a very real possibility. What was once a 26-seat Republican majority in 2003 has dwindled to an eight-seat majority today, and that number will almost certainly shrink again this year. The Republican Party simply cannot afford any more losses in the Legislature, let alone a return to Democratic control.
The only way to prevent further erosion of the Republican majority in the Texas House is for Tom Craddick to immediately announce that he will not seek another term as speaker.
These are the first two paragraphs of the letter written by Mark McCaig, a member of the State Republican Executive Committee, that appeared in the Statesman on Thursday, the importance of which should not be underestimated. What matters is not that he called for Craddick to give up the gavel. The big deal here is that McCaig challenged the central rationale of the Craddick speakership, which he has sold to leadership of the Republican party: that the maintenance of the Republican majority in the House depends upon his continuing presence as speaker. That issue is now out in the open. If the Republicans do not lose ground on Election Day, Craddick will be reelected as speaker. But if they falter, McCaig’s pronouncement that the emperor has no clothes will stick in the minds of every Republican in the House. He has set the terms of the debate, and the debate has already started. If Craddick is unseated, the Sarajevo of the battle inside the Republican ranks will be the McCaig letter.
Tagged: mark mccaig, speaker's race, Texas house, tom craddick
Texas Publius says:
I’m telling you, here’s the formula for the next Speaker….
80+ Rs — Craddick after another bloodbath
75-79 Rs — Gattis, Solomons, Keffer
75-79 Ds — Turner, Ritter
80+ Ds — Eiland
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paulburka says:
Great stuff, Texas Publius.
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Anonymous says:
I like Tom Craddick, but Dan Gattis is nearly as good. Unfortunately, it’s gonna be “Kompromise” Keffer. I see no other likely projection.
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Anonymous says:
Gattis is running for the State Senate.
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anonymous1 says:
Dan Gattis is an arrogant a**hole who ignores his constituents. Hell, Anna Mowry represents her district better than Gattis does his. If Republicans want to be embarrassed by someone in their party, it should be Dan Gattis, not someone like Tom Craddick. At least Tom has principles and sticks to them.
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paulburka says:
Anonymous at 9:38 a.m. says Gattis is running for the State Senate. Everybody knows that. Speaker isn’t exactly a consolation prize. Why, I’ve even heard it said that the speaker is a officer of the state.
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cow droppings says:
More like Krystalnacht, since the letter was orchestrated by Keffer and they found a young, unknown SREC member to put it under his name.
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WURSPH says:
All assumptions that Craddick will be replaced rely on the Craddick D’s voting for a Democrat or Non-Craddick GOP. I think that assumption is incorrect. Most of the Craddick D’s know that they will not get any appointment as good as they have gotten from Craddick from anyone else.
The Guillens of this world have every reason to stick with Craddick if the Republicans retain a small majority. Even with a Democrat majority a few of them will still know that voting with the GOP is the only hope they have for a good appointment. (Plus you can’t count the new freshwoman from HD 43 as a Democrat when it comes down to the real vote.)
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Anonymous says:
74 D’s, 76 R’s, why wouldn’t the House want Solomons (as listed by Texas Publius)? He has proven every session his ability to work with members of both sides and maintain a conservative Republican record. It’s all about management style.
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ears1foru says:
Anon, Burt would be good choice, still think Homer in mix with a few rural ABC’s who are ready to get retire.(ie Kuempel). Think Kolkorst likes to hear herself talk too much. Geren could also say so long Caddick and probably still win in his District…The money boys can’t give much more to an opponent for him than they have and he still gets 60%. Keffer still has been making rounds and is well liked.
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Anonymous says:
Paul, you have been utterly misguided and useless in all of your analysis of the speakers race for the past few years and this is no exception. Read his letter. He is calling for a MORE conservative speaker that craddick. How realistic is that? You take that and run with an analysis that this letter will lead to a more moderate speaker? Come on, paul. If this letter from a 26 year old GOP goofball wasn’t bashing craddick, you’d ignore it or ridicule it. Fortunatel for craddick and his team, the members and other observers have long stopped relyiing on you for good analysis of the speakers race.
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Anonymous says:
Good lord paul, you’re right on the money!! This is exactly what all the gop house members were waiting for to help them decide, a letter from an unknown srec member! Good job, paul! Top notch as always. Love, evan.
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paulburka says:
To anonymous at 8:04 p.m.
If the McCaig letter matters at all — and that depends upon what happens on election day — its importance has nothing to do with the ideology of the speaker. It has to do with whether Tom Craddick is good or bad for the future of the Republican party.
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gator says:
Most R’s consider the McCaig letter bad form. But if R’s lose seats and Craddick still has $2.6 million when it’s all said and done, a lot of members are going to start looking for more supportive leadership.
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gator says:
Everyone expects this to be a bad year for Republicans–They also expect Craddick to try and help his people.
What I’m trying to say is that it’s not necessarily losing seats as much as Craddick being stingy with his warchest and not helping people out. Especially Harris County folks.
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Heather says:
Cheers to Mark McCaig! He may be young, but winning a spot on the SREC is no simple feat. And to put all that he worked for on the line shows he has gusto. He’s not on the SREC for the power, he’s there to make a difference, an idea long forgotten by most of our SREC and elected “leaders.” Republicans are facing enormous losses because they chose to compromise over and over. They chose power over principle and lost both. True leaders seek to do good. They rise to power because people see that good in them. Those who choose the path to power are there simply for themselves and not for the good of others. Its time to purge our Republican Party of the power hungry and rely on those who were elevated to leadership based on their self-sacrifice.
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Anonymous says:
Why doesn’t this srec guy name these more conservative republicans he supposedly favors for speaker? Seems like his letter is a croc.
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ajmo says:
Conservative or not. He does not care for Craddick ways.
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