The Lyceum Poll: the issues (politics comes tomorrow)
To link to the executive summary of the poll, click here.
There’s a lot of meat here, but the issues that I found most interesting were:
Perry’s decision to reject unemployment stimulus funds:
58% agree
34% disagree
Bank bailouts
25% favor
64% oppose
Automobile company bailouts
31% favor
64% oppose
Federal government is spending too much money
2/3 agree
1/3 disagree
These numbers are great for Rick Perry, bad for Hutchison. She voted for the bank bailout, which was the program of the Bush administration. It was the responsible thing to do, and it will probably turn out well. But it is very unpopular. I presume that tomorrow’s poll will have a Perry-Hutchison head-to-head, and, based on these numbers, I would expect it to be favorable to Perry.
Those looking for good news for Hutchison: 58% believe that the stimulus funds are helping the economy.
And some good news for Democrats as well:
24% are willing to be patient for economic improvements for two years or more
20% are willing to be patient for two years
29% are willing to be patient for one year
23% have exhausted their patience
Other issues:
Voter ID
71% favor
% opposed is not given in the poll summary
Voter ID support by partisan affiliation
Republicans 86%
Independents 68%
Democrats 58%
I don’t like the Voter ID proposal, but Democrats cannot hold out forever against legislation that roughly three in five of their own troops favor.
Voter ID support by race
Anglo 78%
African American 75%
Hispanic 59%
The low level of Hispanic support for Voter ID legislation suggests a high level of awareness of the issue. Voter ID may be seen another issue, along with immigration and border security, that impacts Hispanics. The repercussions could adversely affect Republican efforts to attract Hispanics–if there were any such efforts.
Social issues
Favor civil unions 32%
Favor same-sex marriage 25%
Embryonic stem cell research
Favor 48%
Oppose 46%
This is a startling number, and one that reflects Rick Perry’s position (anti). I would have expected to find a clear majority in favor, particularly in a state known for cutting-edge medical research.
Political affiliation
46% Independent
28% Democratic
25% Republican
Leanings of independent voters
29% Republican
22% Democratic
This is the problem for Democrats. Independent voters are leaving the Republican party. They see themselves as independents. They’re angry at their old party, but the Democrats have not been able to win over the
Tagged: kay bailey hutchison, lyceum poll, rick perry, texas governor’s race.
the truth hurts says:
Paul your mixing bailout funds with stimulus dollars. Kay Bailout voted to bail out her bank stocks and wall street buddies but she voted against the stimulus!
Again how is this good news for her?
voters get the difference.
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paulburka Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Perry is trying to make this race into Austin vs. Washington. The bailout vote works to his advantage. But if the stimulus is viewed positively, then “Washington” looks better — regardless of whether she voted for it or not.
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Emptyk says:
I’m thinking the nature of the questions shapes some of the bailout answers as “More federal bailouts” But you can decide for yourself.
http://www.texaslyceum.org/media/staticContent/PubCon_Journals/2009/TexasLyceum2009Poll_ExecutiveSummary_TheEconomyAndStateAndNationalIssues.pdf
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James says:
Much has been made of the high poll numbers supporting Voter ID but all that seems to indicate is the Democrats inability to inform people of the harmful effects that such a measure would have. The 70% referenced above probably have proper identification and wouldn’t be affected ID requirement to vote, sothey are not the issue. The issue is that the 1% to 2% that will be disenfranchised from Voter ID aren’t being considered by the larger poll sample.
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James Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Reposting because apparently I cannot proofread my work:
Much has been made of the high poll numbers supporting Voter ID but all that seems to indicate is the Democrats inability to inform people of the harmful effects that such a measure would have. The 70% referenced above probably have proper identification and wouldn’t be affected by an ID requirement to vote, so they are not the issue. The issue is that the 1% to 2% that will be disenfranchised from Voter ID aren’t being considered by the larger poll sample.
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Tellnitlikeitis says:
The pollsters also said that a corresponding question measuring support for making it easier to vote would have equally high numbers.
If you want voter ID, you can get it by also making it easier to participate in democracy. It’s a win-win type deal – and the best way to get voter ID.
If you insist on voter ID while making it harder to vote, your true incentive is probably voter supression. And most Texans would oppose that.
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John Johnson Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 5:22 pm
I’ve been told by those pushing for voter ID what it would accomplish. I think that most of the naysayers reasons against don’t hold water.
You speak of a plan to “make it easier to vote”. Please enlighten us. How much easier can it get with all being assured that one qualified voter gets one tabulated vote?
What irks most, I believe, is that Repubs chose to run this out fist and plug up all the important legislation that backed up behind it. It should have been way down the list. I’m not so sure that it wasn’t caluclated to do just that by our gov, lt. gov and some of the power brokers.
The only thing more offensive, was the Dem’s forming their roadblock when the vast majority of Texans, including their own party members, were for it.
Just another wasted session that never panned out at the “consumer session” it was tabbed to be.
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Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 7:30 pm
John..
You should approach this with the premise that participation in democracy is a birth right. You don’t have to pay your way in, or earn your way into the voting booth.
Voting is a right, not a privilege.
Why make it hard to exercise that right?
Voting ID makes sense…if it’s part of a broader approach.
What is so sacred about voter registration in the computer era? Sure, decades ago it took time to sort through the paperwork.
Computer technology exists to instantly verify someone’s voting eligibility – just as instant background checks for gun purchases.
So…let’s go with a voter ID system…The GOPers want that. Fine.
ANd let’s go with Rep. Anchia’s plan to allow Texans to show up during the early voting period (even if they are not registered to vote)….require a photo ID that allows them to “register” and vote at the same time.
Make it a provisional ballot pending verification that the voter is legitimate.
Why would you oppose that?
That’s just one way of making voting easier. Had GOPers embraced this idea, most Democrats would have gone with voter ID.
If GOPers refuse to make it “easier” to vote, such as with the above example, then it raises genuine questions about their true intent when it comes to voter ID.
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John Johnson Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Thanks, tellitlikeitis, for response.
I wasn’t disageeing with you. Just wanted to hear what the “making it easier” part was you were promoting.
Sounds to me like Anchia’s plan has merit, but also seems that some kinks might have to be worked out with regards to the “pending verification” process.
Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 9:14 pm
John…i considered your response a request for clarification or elaboration.
As far as pending verification, as I understand it….anyone could vote during the early voting period (even if they are not registered) simply by showing up – think, same-day registration – with a valid PHOTO ID.
They would be entitled to cast a ballot. The ballot would have provisional status until elections administrations could determine the voter was a citizen, not a felon, etc. At that point, it becomes a regular ballot.
It sounds like a reasonable compromise in the effort to get voter ID; each side gets something. GOPers get voter ID, which they think will make the ballot more secure; Dems could remove an artifical barrier (30-day voter registration deadline) to make voting a tad easier.
So long as you have a valid voter ID system in place, what’s so sacred about registration at least 30 days before an election?)
Time and money could be spent on turning people to vote instead of registering people to vote. Why insist on multiple hoops in our computer era?
John Johnson Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 11:06 pm
I’m onboard, but it sounds entirely too reasonable for both sides to agree. I’m going to try and find out who was arguing against Anchia’s proposal so I can see what they had to say. Thanks for enlightening me.
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Anon says:
This election will not be decided around issues. Public Perception is that Perry has had his time and they like Kay. Simple as that.
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Anonymous Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 11:41 pm
Spoken like a true Kay supporter. Ignore the issues! Message? Who needs a message when Kay’s “popular.”
So while Kay’s campaign pushes such nonsense, Perry’s campaign will be defining the hell out of her on the issues.
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paulburka Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 9:46 am
People tend to forget that Kay vs. Rick is a Republican primary election. “Public perception” that Perry has had his time does not necessarily apply to the Republican primary electorate. It is a general election observation.
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Harry Doghiney (D-TX) says:
Perry is unstoppable now that the legions of Leo Berman supporters have been pledged to him.
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1393574|=|= says:
How do you make it easier to vote? Same day registration, more poll workers at over-crowded polling places, enabling more people to become deputy vote registrars, performing outreach to young people as well as the elderly, limiting corporate and union donations, the list goes on…
Tellnitlikeitid is correct that voter ID is only one facet of an overall plan to increase election integrity; it is not a stand-alone cureall.
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Anonymous says:
“This election will not be decided around issues. Public Perception is that Perry has had his time and they like Kay. Simple as that.”
Exactly. Rick fatigue.
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Anonymous says:
Texans are too stupid to know better than to cut loose from Perry. Too many old, radical,fear-mongering, racist white people who do not know any better. Texas deserves the bad that happens to them
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texmex says:
let’s keep the issue alive to hurt anchia’s chance at a state-wide.
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Anonymous says:
If you have instant, provisional voters in significant numbers, how long would it take to have close elections declared?
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Phillip Martin Reply:
June 23rd, 2009 at 11:40 pm
Depends on the technology you use, and the security and checks on that security you have to back it up.
There’s a reason I can do all my banking online — switch my delivery addresses, move money to different accounts, pay a bill, transfer money to another person, take out a loan, set up a retirement account, etc. All of that can be done online, b/c the companies invest in the technology and security to make that happen.
What’s stopping the government from making that same sort of commitment? What’s stopping the taxpayers from demanding that level of commitment?
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Fishn4Truth says:
Ah yes, let’s confuse the 2008 bank bailout vote with the 2009 stimulus vote. Look at the record, Hutchison voted against the Obama stimulus package. While she did vote for the bank bailout (along with Cornyn, Coburn, and over 70 other Senators), she voted NOT to release the second part of the bailout funds in January. And by the way, Hutchison is currently pushing legislation in the Senate to do away with big bad TARP (aka, bank bailout).
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Anonymous Liberal Lout says:
Paul, only you could take a
3% party ID advantage for Democrats, and a
7% advantage for Republicans among leaning Independents (who were 46% of the sample, thereby rougly a 3.5% R advantage for “leans R) among the whole sample, and then SAY IT IS A PROBLEM FOR THE DEMOCRATS?!!!
What are you thinking, man. The R’s in Texas are bleeding support. Heck, the D’s have a party ID advantage for the first time in what, decades? (Shouldn’t this be the headline?) And you say it’s a problem for the D’s that they can’t attract independents? I think I’d have to say the Independents (who used to be R’s) just can’t quite call themselves D’s, yet. BUT THEY SURE AS HELL AREN’T R’s. That’s a bigger problem for the R’s by far.
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Anonymous says:
Perry leading Hutchison 33-21. Another bad day for the Kay camp.
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Obama's socialist Dad says:
“Paul your mixing bailout funds with stimulus dollars. Kay Bailout voted to bail out her bank stocks and wall street buddies but she voted against the stimulus!”
The ’stimulus’ was a trillion dollars of pork barrel Government deficit spending that does almost nothing to stimulate private sector economy. It was another bailout – of the Government sector. So no stimulus for small businesses that are struggling, but billions for ACORN, bankrupt states like Cali and for wasteful govt programs.
Stimulus = porkulus = another failed bailout
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Obama's socialist Dad says:
“What irks most, I believe, is that Repubs chose to run this out fist and plug up all the important legislation that backed up behind it.”
WRONG!! THE DEMOCRATS CHUBBED 500 BILLS JUST TO KILL VOTER ID! The Republicans didnt want to delay anything, simply put in on the House in regular order, and its silly to assume they would force a change in calendars just to make the Demos job easier in killing this popular bill.
It’s absurd to blame Republicans for the Democrats massive legi-cide. It was 100% the Democrats doing that, taking out hundreds of bills just to stop popular Voter ID. .. IT HAS MAJORITY SUPPORT AMONG VOTERS AND IN BOTH TEXAS STATE HOUSES!
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