LYCEUM POLL: PERRY 33, HUTCHISON 21
Here are the numbers. Commentary follows.
Approval Ratings
Obama as president
Approve 68% Disapprove 29%
Obama economic policy
Approve 63% Disapprove 34%
Rick Perry
Approve 57% Disapprove 30%
Kay Bailey Hutchison
Approve 65% Disapprove 17%
John Cornyn
Approve 55% Disapprove 19%
Texas Legislature
Approve 58% Disapprove 28%
Democratic Primary (Governor)
Kinky 10%
Schieffer 6%
Van de Putte 3% (withdrawn)
U.S. Senate
White (D) 9%
Dewhurst (R) 4%
Abbott (R) 4%
Ames Jones (R) 3%
R Williams (R) 3%
Sharp (D) 2%
Shapiro (R) 2%
M Williams (R) 2%
* * * *
I don’t think these numbers are good for Perry. Forget the 12-point lead. The number that jumps out is 33%. That’s all? This is a lower percentage than he got in the 2006 general election, when he famously won with 39%. Undecideds represent a plurality. And the respondents supposedly represent Republican primary voters. (I say “supposedly” because the support for gay unions in yesterday’s issues poll was very high — in the upper fifties — considering the overwhelming support for the constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage. Furthermore, according to the poll’s methodology, the sample for Republican primary voters was very small — 267 — and had a MOE of +/- 6.04%.) In the Rasmussen poll earlier this year, around the time of the secession flap, Perry had a 42-38 lead over Hutchison.
Other numbers seem unfavorable for Perry as well. He has based his campaign on making Hutchison the candidate of Washington and positioning himself as the candidate of Texas. He’s been hammering away at “Washington” since September, and at Kay “Bailout” Hutchison, but Obama’s approval rating in Texas is way up there, similar to what it is nationally. Hutchison is in the stratosphere at 65% favorable to 17% unfavorable. That is going to be hard for him to tear down. Perry’s own favorables are the best they have ever been, but he is the incumbent, and the election is going to be about him — unless he can somehow manage to redefine her. It’s hard to redefine someone with a miniscule 17% disapproval rating.
The Democratic gubernatorial primary and the U.S. Senate race are too speculative to comment on. The only number of interest is White’s lead over Sharp, but since everyone is in single digits, and the race won’t exist unless Hutchison resigns her seat, it is hardly worth mentioning.
Survey information
The 2009 Texas Lyceum Poll is a telephone-based multi-stage cluster sample of
Texas adults. Telephone coverage within the state of Texas is approximately 97%.
Randomized selection procedures were assiduously followed throughout the
process, even at the level of selecting individuals within the household. The final
sample size is 860 adult Texans. The instrument itself relies on questions that
have been used previously in national polls, and have been shown to be both
valid (correlating with plausible independent and dependent variables) and
reliable (robust to question order and interviewer effects). A Spanish version of
the instrument was developed and respondents were given a choice of
participating in English or Spanish. Bilingual interviewers were utilized, and
approximately 146 interviews (17% of the sample) were completed in Spanish.
The overall response rate (completed interviews/contacts) is 38%. This rate is
partially the result of an extended time in the field, which facilitated call-backs.
The overall margin of error for the sample is +/- 3.34 percentage points at the
95% confidence level. The data used to generate top-lines and tables are
weighted by U.S. Census Bureau estimates with respect to age, gender, and race.
For example, Census data indicate the proportion of 18-29 year old Hispanic
females in Texas, and we use these estimates to weight the survey data. As
expected, the most significant weights are applied to young, male, minority
respondents (who are under-represented here, as they are in almost all polls in
the U.S.).
Primary election items are asked of those who said they were “certain” or “likely”
to vote in that party’s primary. Based on this, 267 respondents were asked about
their preferences in the Republican primary, and 255 respondents were asked
about their preferences in the Democratic primary. The margins of error for the
ballot items are +/- 6.04 and +/- 6.14 percentage points, respectively. All 860
respondents were asked their preferences for the U.S. Senate election.
Tagged: kay bailey hutchison, lyceum poll, paul burka, rick perry.
Anonymous says:
Actually, the obvious comment is Hutchison’s dropping like a rock and the fact that Perry had a great session is propelling him in the election. I feel sorry for the staffer who has to inform the Senator her double digit lead has turned into a double digit deficit without one nickel being spent. Once voters really get to know her pro-pork, pro-choice record, she’ll be the Republican equivalent of Tony Sanchez. I bet she drops out of this race.
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John Johnson Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Who is it that is reporting that “Perry had a great session” except Repub cheerleaders. Hell, not even all of them are doing that.
The session was a total bust … except for those who wanted to see pro consumer legislation kicked, ignored and buried.
The Gov’s cutthroats did a commendable job, and I’m sure that they will be rewarded by hefty contributions and fundraisers by the Usual Suspects.
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Anonymous Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 11:49 am
How about the president of UTSA saying this was the best session for higher ed in 20 years?
How about a budget that cuts both general revenue spending and small biz taxes?
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Anon Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
John Johnson doesn’t care about anything but local option taxes – he’s not concerned about conservative issues like smaller budgets.
John Johnson Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
What I care about is what most of us care about … keeping more of our money for ourselves.
I’m happy that the UTSA head can gleen a little happiness from the session; likewise for those who want to jump up and down and brag about those “smaller budgets” that don’t mean squat to most. Am I happy about the small biz tax law being changed? You bet …but all that did was right a terrible wrong implemented several years ago … paying on gross income. Stupid!
I look at all the bills that would have saved the consumer money that never made it out of committee …most never being brought up in committee.
You can put all the spin you want to on how great a session it was, but in truth, for the average joe, it sucked.
I’m one of those growing number of independents who know that it sucked.
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Prince Royal Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Anonymous, since you seen to be really in the know, can you tell me if your boss,–er ah–Governor Perry informed Representative Chisum of his opposition to the rural doctor bill before it passed out of the House? What about the other representatives whose bills got vetoed?
I was just curious.
BTW, I think the election is 9 months away and a lot can happen, I can’t imagine either of them feeling any great dominance in this election. I fully expect you to spin as you do, however.
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Anonymous Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
The bill to which you refer wasn’t a Chisum bill, so I guess the answer is no. Bur way to keep up on things! By the way the Chisum rural doc bill passed and was signed by the gov.
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Anonymous Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Ha, this being the legislative session where ” nothing got done” sounds like a session Perry was heavily involved in. Everyone knows he can’t pass his legislative agenda
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Mr. Noodle says:
How is it possible that KBH went from having a double digit lead to free falling in a double digit deficit? Her strategy of staying on the sidelines and cheering for failure seems to have cost her dearly.
Perry (like him or not) clearly is tapping into the anti-D.C. fervor among Rep. primary voters. This poll also shows that Texans know our economy is in a better spot than the national economy.
Paul, I think you tapped into it when you said in your profile piece of both candidates that KBH was ill-prepared to answer policy questions … I’d go much further: she has no message at all.
She’s putting out lists of supporters from circa 1994ish. Is she raising lots of money? If not, she’ll have totally wasted her six month fundraising advantage.
Like the early stages of every campaign, the first primary is the money primary — these polls numbers mean those early financial backers of KBH will be very nervous because this isn’t what they were promised.
I’m sure the relatively high number of undecideds will be talked about, but would you rather have a 12 point lead or not?
Exactly.
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paulburka Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Note to readers:
With Eileen’s agreement, I have deleted an anti-Hutchison comment that purported to be from Hans Klingler, who is a spokesperson for Hutchison. Commenters are free to use pseudonyms but not the names of individuals known to be involved in politics. It is OK to post comments under “Warren Chisum’s brain” but not under “Warren Chisum.” Please be respectful of individuals.
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paulburka Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 11:28 am
To Mr. Noodle –
I’d rather have a 12 point lead. But I don’t think it means very much, except that Perry has been visible and Hutchison hasn’t been.
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Anonymous Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 11:42 am
She’s a sitting US Senator. She is, by definition, visibleSheA’s a result she has high name ID. Her problem is the more her votes and positions on issues become public, the less voters support her.
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the truth hurts Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Its not that she is been invisible, it’s what she is visible with. Bailouts, Wall Street bonuses, bank stocks and red ink spending as far as your eye can imagine
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Anon says:
Perry wins GOP primary runs against Kirk Watson and Watson wins! Best of all worlds!
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Anonymous says:
you’ve always been a dreamer, anon, and a loner. no one is dreaming that dream with you. no one.
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Rog says:
I am.
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Anonymous says:
Obama at 68%?!?! That’s what’s interesting.
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Phillip Martin says:
I just…I don’t know.
58% approval for the Texas legislature? I’d love to point to those Obama economic numbers and approval figures and celebrate, but…58% approval for the Texas legislature?
I’m not even sure if 58% of the Texas legislature would approve of the Texas legislature.
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tell the full story Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
As usual Paul misses the point. Must have spilled his latte on the poll numbers this morning?
These numbers are great for Perry. Look at the demographics of the survey Perry should be losing by 20 points.
But the most obvious blunder by Paul is his mixing up Obama with Washington. All voters hate the mess in DC which Kay has been party to for 17years. The voters like Obama and you have never read where Perry has dissed the President. Its his policies and those of Pelosi, Reid and Hutchison.
When a 17 year incumbent who has very high ratings can’t get a quarter of her party to support her — then you have a dog that will not hunt.
After such a successful session what other trash talking of Texas can Kay do? She has become as shrill as Carole Strangehorn ever was. And were nine months away.
When is she resigning again?
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Anonymous Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
I love this remark because regarless of the “effort” it has been a long time since those boys and girls made any progress for Texas. They haven’t learned the concept of playing nice with others.
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Ida says:
RE: 11:30
Tag that first line, not something you see very often from that poster.
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Fishn4Truth says:
Wow. Perry supporters are ready to claim victory on one poll several months before the primary. That’s a little presumptuous, don’t you think? Besides, I’m not sure Perry has much to hang his hat on with a 30% disapproval rating and an unproductive 10 years in office.
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007 says:
If perry were up 80-20, burka would still find a way to say “what’s really interesting is…..bad for Perry”
the infatuation with Kay continues…
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anonymous says:
I have to agree with Paul here – these are not good numbers for Perry. After ten years in office he still only has 33% backing? Pretty lame. As for Kay, she has been biding her time, letting Perry shoot himself in the foot time after time with his whorehouses and secession claims while she has stayed above the fray. Wise move. Cannot wait for this race to gear up!!
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cow droppings Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
okay kay spin team (that includes paul too based on his ridiculous comments here): she was leading by 25 or so points based on her own poll released months ago, and now a poll says she is down 12. Several polls in between have trended this way. She is in free-fall. Paul is in the twilight zone.
Essentially Paul’s spin amounts to this: a 37 point change Perry’s way is bad for Perry. Texas Monthly should stick to picking best bar-b-que.
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paulburka Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
If the poll numbers were, say, 45% for Perry and 33% for KBH, I would agree that Kay is in trouble. At 33-21 with 40+% undecided, I think the poll does not tell us very much.
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Fishn4Truth says:
You’re right about one thing…Perry has been more visible than Kay. He’s been traveling around the state on the taxpayer’s dime grandstanding about how bad “Warshington” is, all the while relying on federal assistance to balance his own budget. He could have saved us a lot of money by staying at his desk and doing his job. Meanwhile, Kay the Workhorse has been fighting all of these bad Obama ideas firsthand instead of just complaining about them. She’s been on the frontline fighting for Texas. Not spending all of her time in front of the cameras like someone else. So who would you rather have: the showboat or the workhorse? My money’s on Kay.
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cow droppings Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
how funny…this comment timed right after kay missed another important vote:
http://rickvskay.blogspot.com/2009/06/another-week-another-missed-senate-vote.html
How many bagels and cups of flavored coffee have taxpayer-funded assistants working for Kay provided for Her Heiness on the taxpayer dime?
Where was Kay on one of those key stimulus votes before Specter the defector led the sell-out? A speech at a chamber event.
The KBH spin is getting weak guys. I fear for Hans’ job.
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Prince Royal Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
All of this spin is weak. There are two KBH and three RP posters all spinning today…Yawn.
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texun Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Right-on, PR.
Christopher says:
lol, she’s in free-fall. That’s adorable. If you are getting this excited about a poll this far out, you’re going to need sedatives by Christmas time.
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Belle says:
I have to wonder if any consideration is being given to the pragmatic Democrats that will vote in the Republican Primary for KBH? It is still too soon to expect a Democrat to win the general. So if a Democrat wants to impact the Governor’s race, the most logical move is to crossover. So far, I haven’t seen much discussion of this phenomenon. It will be the opposite side of the coin where Republicans were reported to crossover and vote in the Democratic Presidential Primary race in 2008.
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anonymous says:
Saying Kay is in a free-fall is putting a little too much faith in this thing. They have Kinky winning for goodness sake.
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Pizza God says:
Where is Debra Medina listed. Most everyone who knows she is running is supporting her.
Medinafortexas.com is her web site.
Last I checked the Issues pages were not up yet, but I can tell you this
She is
Against the taking of property for toll roads owned by foreign companies.
Requiring drugs for our teenage girls.
Stealing kids from there parents.
Would not sign legislation to increase taxes.
Unlike Kay “bailout”, she would not have voted yet on every bailout and out of balance appropriations bill. (Cornyn has been voting for these too, our Republican House members have been voting against all of them)
You need to do your research on all three before making your vote. Texas does have a true choice that DOES NOT GIVE LIP SERVICE.
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Anonymous Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Most everyone who knows Debra Medina is running is NOT supporting her. In your dreams. You and the other dreamers above need to get together.
And I assume your reference to “stealing kids from there (sic) parents” refers to the child-abusing cult in W. TX. You might want to do a little research of your own: http://fldstexas.wordpress.com where original documents and evidence are posted.
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Emeyekaye says:
This is all about keeping Bill White out of Austin or D.C. If KBH stays in the Senate, Mayor White would rather run for Governor… so, by letting him think she is running against Perry, KBH has really neutralized White, destabilized his political machine (when he is forced to run against KBH when she doesn’t leave), and helped solidify Perry as the only real option for Governor.
This sort of coordination (skulduggery even) is unprecedented in the Republican Party… The Rs are the only ones really playing for redistricting… The Ds think they are, but they cannot cooperate (not like this anyway).
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Prince Royal says:
Yeah, White sure is neutralized with that $3 million in the bank that can be transferred over to a state race (donations that were limited to $2300/$2400 but can go up to unlimited amounts once he is going for a state office), being the most popular mayor in Houston’s history (which is 23% of the vote), and not having his negatives bumped up by Perry’s pettiness.
Yep. So clever of Rick and Kay to stage their dislike of one another for 10 years just to lull White into their trap. And he never saw it coming.
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Emeyekaye Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
exactly Prince Royal…
remember Tony Sanchez? Bill White se hablas espanol if you know what I mean…
I like him, lots even, but he took KBH’s word that she was going to run against Perry.
Even if White flips to the governor’s race, Perry will have a field day with that and totally energize his base (aka “wack-job Republicons”).
For the record, before the war I was a saucier back in San Antone.
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1993 all over again says:
When will Jim Frances of Dallas fame call out the cavalry to reboot the morbid KBH campaign? How soon will Joe Allbaugh be called out of the high clover to saddle up and bring back the magic? Dreams from the old guard, hopes to be flying on the old DPS plane to various locates across the state?
I predict Joe will come to his senses and turn them down flat. But the brain trust has plenty to worry about, it appears Bryan has taking up the slack where the Team Kay has dropped the ball.
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Jeremy says:
Soft, soft numbers for Perry and a HUGE opportunity for Kay. How do you govern for two terms and leave almost 70% of your base electorate opposed/undecided?!?!?
My vote is with Kay and I’m betting most of the “undecideds” will break that way.
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Credit where credit's due says:
Forget the twelve point lead? Are you serious? All that’s ever been quoted here were initial numbers of Kay having a double digit lead against Perry before any punches were thrown. Now that some of the dust is clearing and we’re getting clear stances from Perry he gains double digits over Kay and you want us to forget the lead because it doesn’t mean anything?
Well how about this, what of the fact that Kay has already run from one Governors election? And now even Scheiffer has come out from under his rock to OFFICIALLY declare he’s running for Governor. So what then can we say for the Queen of all things Bailout? I can only think of the obvious, which is there’s a good chance that this time much like last time when the going gets tough Kay likes to bail out.
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paulburka Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
When the undecideds are the biggest single group, by far, a twelve-point lead of a very small sample of voters means very little. It’s not even outside the margin of error of the poll. I don’t think this means much at all.
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VoicesofReason Reply:
June 25th, 2009 at 7:40 am
There has certainly been a lot of postings on this Lyceum poll in 24 hours, and although I think you are right, Paul, in your basic statistical analysis, I think there is another thread of debate here.
This really isn’t about Perry vs. KBH. It is about Perry vs. Perry. Much like a Michael Jordan or a Jack Nicklaus, you need to figure out when it is time for your exit. So, the question is what would a 4th term as Governor yield that the first three haven’t. One could debate who is responsible for Texas doing a better job nationally than any other state and if the Governor’s leadership created this environment. Regardless of that debate and the possibility that it was simply a good time to be Governor of Texas, I am still proud to be a Texan.
Like Governor Pawlenty in Minnesota, who is not running for another term beyond two, our Governor would do himself and the future of the Republican Party in Texas much good by not creating a divisive race, when there doesn’t need to be one at all.
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Rog says:
At some point Perry will have to defend spending $10,000 of the taxpayers money each month, for living quarters. And that was even before the Mansion burned on his watch.
Maybe he’ll check into La Quinta to help out.
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paulburka Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
I wish people would drop the subject of Perry’s rent house. He’s the governor. He’s entitled to live in nice quarters where he can host visitors. As I have said before: This isn’t Arkansas. We don’t want our governor living in a double wide. There are many things to criticize Perry for. This isn’t one of them.
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Prince Royal Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Yes it is, Paul. He could have a beautiful condo downtown for half that amount with built in security. It is not as if the choice was between a double wide or a $10K/month house. The situation he created requires significant security and commuting and involves him renting from a donor.
It is classic Perry: Nothing is illegal, but it is all poorly executed and parts of it stink.
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cow droppings Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
or maybe you are criticizing him because that is a congenital condition with you.
Prince Royal Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
You are right. I have this pesky condition that I want my leaders to be ethical, above reproach, and concerned about how they are regarded by all the citizens. My bad.
ConservTexan says:
I wondered what Cow Droppings was referencing when he said KBH missed “another important vote.” Health care socialization? Cap & trade?
No. It a meaningless cloture vote, on an obscure measure. A missed vote (KBH was in Texas) is the precise equivalent of a “no” because 60 “yes” votes are required for passage. The Dems could only muster 53, so they lost.
Here’s what’s rich. Cow Droppings is Ted DeLisi. Cow Droppings makes his point by linking to RickvsKay blog, which is written by Ted DeLisi. Anonymously, of course.
See — all the Perry commentors on Burka’s blog are not paid Perry staffers. Sometimes it’s their wives who are the paid staffers.
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cow droppings Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
wrong. But I am glad you are obsessed with unveiling my secrecy. It must mean I am renting space in your head.
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paulburka says:
I hope ConservTexan is wrong about Ted Delisi, since Cow Droppings has had some harsh things to say about what I write, and I consider Ted a friend and a pretty shrewd observer of politics.
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Anonymous Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
You can’t be friends with someone who doesn’t rub your brisket all the time? I guess I don’t have any friends.
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cow droppings Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Paul, it’s business not personal. I am sure no one on your 10 worst list takes your disagreement personally.
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John Johnson says:
When Chris Matthews plauds KBH’s laurets like he did last night in his interview with her, I know that there is something wrong with her.
The only thing I agree with Matthews on is his total disdain for Perry.
Seriously, is this the best we can do … a king, or a princess?
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Emeyekaye Reply:
June 24th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
I’m with you John Johnson, but the answer to your question is “yes.”
For all its worldliness, Texas politics amounts to little more than a beauty contest (where is Geoffrey Conner when you need him?).
maybe I shouldn’t post when I’ve been drinking…
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bogus numbers says:
these numbers are bogus. don’t accept any poll that has over a 5% margin of error.
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Ted Delisi says:
Dang, pulled away from the College World Series by the call from a friend:
“Hey, Burka blog has some comments about stuff you may or may not have done.”
Here’s my comment: I’m not cow droppings and I don’t author a blog.
Sorry to disappoint.
Now my take on the poll is this: I suspect the screen on the sample is a little loose so you have some people self-identifying as Republican primary voters who probably aren’t actually going to vote in the primary. Not a big deal and it doesn’t make the poll invalid at all. The ratio is what matters.
This poll shows a larger lead than the Rasmussen Poll from a month ago. Polling are just snapshots in time and they are useful in spotting a trend. The trend from recent polls is unmistakeable. Perry up. KBH down.
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TexasDairyMan says:
All these positive comments must be from Rick Perry’s staffers. Would you guys get a life, and let real people talk about the positive and the negative about the candidates. Kay Bailey Hutchison is the only one who really understands and cares about rural farmers across texas, especially with regard to eminent domain issues. I cannot wait for Kay’s official announcement and the gloves to come off. Kay’s got this in the bag!
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Lance says:
It’s time for the Democrats to come out of the desert in Texas. People like Kirk Watson or John Sharp should take a serious look at entering the Governor’s race. Almost 2 years ago a little known Senator from Illinois entered a race and did the unthinkable becoming the first black president.
The message is simple; a Democratic candidate can become Governor in the big Republican state of Texas.
After Rick and Kay Bailey finish their negative campaign against each other, people in Texas will be looking to the Democratic leadership. Only one problem, we don’t have anyone at this time!!!!!!!!!!
The Texas Democratic Party has made big gains in all the major metropolitan areas in Texas. Texas Democrats need to capitalize in the rural areas.
South Texas they have.
East Texas they lost because they are not involved!!!!!
West / North Texas (Forget about it.) Its red and its staying red.
I believe a candidate like Bill White will win the US Senate race because he sees the same thing I’m seeing. He is focusing a good portion of his campaign on East Texas and Centeral Texas. This is where you can win a statewide election if your a Democrat, because these are the independent voters.
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eam says:
For what it’s worth — Texas needs a candidate that can sell a “Story of Texas.” Find a way to tie in bravery and bravado with whatever policies he or she chooses — whether it’s wind energy or being business friends or helping the those in need.
If we haven’t already entered a quiet identity crisis — we’re about to. Someone (or some Party [God help us all] will have to make sense of the change. The person who does it best, wins.
It’s not just issues — it’s issues in a context [determined by marketing].
Now, if we don’t candidate like that, and it’s ho-hum politics-as-usual, it’s either be KBH or Perry — and no one will really care which.
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eam says:
Re-post with typos corrected (apologies):
For what it’s worth — Texas needs a candidate that can sell a “Story of Texas.” Find a way to tie in bravery and bravado with whatever policies he or she chooses — whether it’s wind energy or being business friendly or helping the those in need.
If we haven’t already entered a quiet identity crisis — we’re about to. Someone (or some Party [God help us all] will have to make sense of the change. The person who does it best, wins.
It’s not just issues — it’s issues in context [determined by marketing].
Now, if we don’t get a candidate like that — and it’s ho-hum politics-as-usual — it’s either be KBH or Perry — and no one will really care which.
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eam says:
I’m officially the worst copy editor ever.
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Candygram For Sarah Connor says:
A democrat who can be tied to Obama will not win. Obama is poison. The dem nominee needs to repudiate Obama at every turn otherwise, no deal.
As far as Repubs, I want somebody besides RP and KBH. Enough already. Their song and dance act got old a long time ago. KBH always seems canned to me, about two steps away from being a deer in the headlights if a question can’t be given a preprogrammed answer.
RP is a panderer, and a pay for play kind of guy. He reminds me of a salesman keeping just ahead of the mob of furious customers who bought the useless junk he sold them. Coattails flying and sweat beading on his forehead as the bus door slams behind him just before the crowd can grab him.
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Michael Heseltine says:
I think this is a flawed poll. I seriously doubt Obama’s approval rating in Texas is in the high 60s. In fact, I’d bet it is below the mid 50s where it currently stands nationwide. You can’t convince me that Texas is more pro-Obama than most states. Thus, I’m skeptical of all of the numbers in this poll.
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bogus numbers says:
agreed. i don’t trust a 6 pt margin of error to begin with. trained to dismiss anything with a MOE of more than 5, and not to budge at all. but then seeing obama’s numbers, no way, jose.
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Jeff Crosby says:
Uh, Bogus, the margin of error for the Obama numbers was 3.34%. The partisan subgroups were about 6%, which is actually high for a crosstab and very reliable.
In any event, this poll looks a little funky to me. That UD number in the gov race just doesn’t look right.
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bogus numbers says:
you keep thinking that, and Texans for Insurance Reform can continue to lose campaigns and waste millions of dollars
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Jerry Jeff says:
When you look at the breakdowns in this poll they are not even close to other surveys. I say Daron Shaw screws up again and Lyceum remains irrelevant with zero credibility.
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