UT Poll: Perry 36, Hutchison 24
Perry’s twelve-point lead is the same as his advantage in last month’s Texas Lyceum poll, which was conducted by the same pollsters — Perry 33, Hutchison 21. Both that poll and this one showed that a large number of voters were undecided or preferred someone else. The Democratic primary results, which show Kinky Friedman ahead of Tom Schieffer, are irrelevant until the field grows.
Favorability
Perry 42% favorable, 32% unfavorable
Obama 43% favorable, 46% unfavorable
The Lyceum poll had Obama’s favorability rating in the state as a hard-to-believe 68%, and Perry’s favorable/unfavorable was 57/30. In both cases, the new poll’s figures seem a lot closer to reality.
Senate Race (likely to occur in May 2010)
Sharp 10%
Dewhurst 9%
White 7%
Abbott 6%
Issues
–Accept unemployment insurance stimulus funds 36% yes, 43% no (not a ringing endorsement of Perry’s refusal)
–Voter ID 70% yes, 17% no
–Gambling 40% favor full casino gambling, 20% favor a limited expansion
–Statewide smoking ban 63% favor, 31% oppose
* * * *
I find Perry’s lead to be quite believable. Hutchison is running the worst campaign imaginable. She has essentially abandoned the field to Perry. She has been invisible. Perry gave her a softball by fighting for the extension of privatized toll road agreements in the special session — a heaven-sent opportunity — and she just watched it go by. I think her team is not first-rate talent, and I think they are letting her do what she wants to do instead of telling her what she needs to do. Part of Perry’s lead is due to his ability to exploit Republican voters’ anger at the federal government, but part of it is due to Hutchison’s complete absence from the fray. What we have seen is voters defecting from being for Hutchison to being undecided. Hutchison has a long way to go before she is an effective candidate. I keep hearing stories like the one out of the Dallas area, where legislators who attended a meet and greet with Hutchison were appalled at her lack of knowledge of state issues.
It’s eight months until the election, but she has wasted the last eight months (except for fundraising), and she still doesn’t have anything that resembles a message. The one thing in her favor is the same thing that has always been in her favor: She remains very popular. Look at Perry’s favorable/unfavorable: 42-32. That’s plus 10. Hutchison’s in the Lyceum poll was 65-17. That’s plus 48. If she is going to beat Perry, those are the numbers that will decide the race.
Tagged: kay bailey hutchison, rick perry, ut poll.
Prince Royal says:
Hey Perryfans: Please bookmark this Burka posting and reference it the next time you assert that Paul is “in the tank” for KBH.
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Anon Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Please help me understand how KBH is running a poor campaign when she hasn’t even kicked off her candidacy yet. Isn’t fundraising what an exploratory committee does? Raise money, prove there’s a base of support, and then launch with a bang. I expect that’s what we’ll see in the near future. Patience Paul, just because she’s not on your timeframe doesn’t meant there’s not a real race ahead of us. It’s going to get ugly when this thing does ramp up, and then we’ll all be complaining about primaries starting to early…
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Anonymous Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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bull droppings detector says:
Paul, even by now after reading 100’s of polls you of all folks must understand that popularity is not the same as ballot strength. being popular is sometimes on account of never having been attacked, or having never taken a strong stand or having only to fly around a state giving away pork barrel projects that rarely get completed.
You hit the problem directly on the head she has no message and she has assembled one of the worst campaign teams in TX history (at least in the modern Perry era of TX politics. circa 1990 forward)
No one will vote for a person who say it’s my turn, or its about leadership? What does that mean — spell it out lady but she cant she is clueless. Damn it this is her turn she tired and wants to come home to raise her kids, and she wants it to be coronation. That is what Jake Frances, hubby Ray and Karl Rove promised her I guess some one forget to ask Perry what he thinks about who turn it is.
Paul am I wrong?
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Anonymous Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 10:23 am
You are not wrong.
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paulburka Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 11:16 am
I agree with most everything here, except I think that popularity does matter. But it isn’t everything. Ann Richards was very popular on election day of 1994, but she lost.
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toll road junkie says:
Paul,
First, in the interest of full disclosure, I am a Rick Perry fan. I don’t agree with all his policies, but I agree with enough of them that he will get my vote in the primary. Second, has the thought ever crossed your mind that maybe KBH hasn’t thrown fuel on the “privatized toll road” fire because there isn’t really a fire at all? Every poll I have ever seen of suburban voters shows that those citizens prefer toll roads over an increase in the gas tax. Perhaps KBH has actually READ the polls and understands that the vast majority of citizens in this state are in support of relieving traffic congestion, and as of right now, toll roads are the only option we have that the Texas constituency will support. I know how YOU feel about toll roads, I have read such on many a post, but I’m afraid your theories on the feelings of the rest of the citizens of this great state are misguided. Perhaps KBH knows that… but we will see. Either way, looks like my guy is sitting pretty, for now…
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Anonymous Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 10:25 am
And your “guy” will be easier to beat in the general election than KBH, so please, by all means, keep backing that horse.
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Anonymous says:
Sounds like Rick Perry is running scared and the official campaigning hasn’t even started. The fact that he used the old Texas could leave the union….well. enoug said.
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Anonymous says:
Kay Bailey is an excellent candidate with an outstanding vision for what Texas needs as well as for what this country needs. We’ll see how it shakes down in the polls.
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Fishn4Truth says:
Honestly, other than those of us who usually comment on this race, most folks are more preoccupied with other things than a primary race that’s 8 months away. I think more people are concerned with the All-Star baseball game and the upcoming football season than the latest poll on this primary race. Even still, I wouldn’t count Kay out just yet. The 6,500 supporters she just rolled out shows that she has a wide base of statewide support. This just proves that we’re in for one exciting race in the months to come.
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Anonymous says:
Hutchison’s campaign is smart – letting Perry bury himself with a do nothing session, a half hearted attempt to fix (instead of eliminate) the franchise tax, ruining Texas A&M, and an idiot comment about succession. Polls at this early in the game mean nothing. As a small business owner, I dont know of anyone who will support Perry in my area…or who would take the time to participate in a poll – they are too busy trying to pay Perry’s franchise tax.
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Anny Mous Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
10:46 am posted: “and an idiot comment about succession.” Did you perhaps mean “secession”?
Better be careful calling people idiots–moron.
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N says:
I agree, it’s going to be one excited race. The great majority of people I talk to want Hutchison to lead Texas. Time will pass and the polls will reflect this.
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clear to me says:
time to fire the campaign staff, a la McCain 07?
Throwin pickles at em won’t light the necessary fire under their butts.
I’m hearing a lot of “people don’t care this early on…popularity…conventional wisdom…waaah…
Sounds a lot like Giuliani in late 07: “I’m losing because people don’t care yet”
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VoicesofReason says:
Paul,
Your perspective seems to have changed significantly from your reaction to last month’s Lyceum poll.
What this poll tells me is that Perry won the last Governor’s race with a plurality of 39% of the total vote. The Lyceum had him at 39% and now this poll has 36%. He has lost between 3-6% of his support in just 2 years. This will be a much narrower race in 2010, and it won’t be won with less than 40% support.
Again, this is about Perry vs. Perry and not Perry vs. KBH. There is no compelling argument for a 4th term, not because Rick is a bad guy, but because even Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin know that you can’t be Governor forever…
It would be nice if these blog posts could shift back to the issue at hand and not the campaign’s respective teams attacking each other. There are good and admirable people in both camps.
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Basic Math Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Look, this is very primitive analysis — you confuse general electorate numbers with primary numbers. They are not the same. Second, the trend in this poll from 3 months ago is that Perry has gone from 7 points down to 12 ahead. A 19 point swing with a single ad launched.
Lastly, while “Governor 39%” makes for a nice talking point for Perry critics, it lacks context: it was a four-way race, and all four candidates had some degree of viability. It simply doesn’t equate in a two-way general as much as critics would like.
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VoicesofReason Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Basic math says that 39% doesn’t win any election, primary or general. Last time I checked 39% is actually less than 50%, and even less than 40%!
61% of Texans voted against Rick Perry. That will likely not change.
Again, this is not yet Perry vs. KBH. It is Perry vs. Perry. And the question must be answered, what will almost 15 years as Governor deliver than 10 hasn’t. It’s simply time for new leadership. There shouldn’t even be a primary fight…
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Basic Math Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 11:24 am
you mistake 61 percent voting for another candidate as 61 percent voting against Perry. It is a convenient narrative for critics, but wrong.
Kelly says:
I’m so proud of everything KBH stands for. She has a strong following and we need her leadership desperately.
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Paul's BFF Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Kelly you sound so sincere but can you name three things that she stands for? What leadership has she ever demonstrated? On what topics? She can’t run an exploratory committee how could she run the state?
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Anonymous Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Paul’s BFF,
Kelly is right, KBH has shown great leadership. For those of you that doubt her abilities, check out her biography on her website. She has been a very successful US senator and will be a great governor.
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JeremyAilouse says:
It’s clear that there is still a lot of work to do for both candidates.
That said, I’d rather be the candidate with 6,500 contributors … we all saw how Pres. Obama used a HUGE organizational advantage through his supporters to bury McCain. If a sitting governor is this far behind KBH, it seems to be the storm clouds must be gathering over Perry-land.
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Paul's BFF Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Hey Jeremy, that translates to 36 donors a day for Senator Ice Empresses and 122 a day for the Governor. You went to UT you figure it out who has the more potential?
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Anonymous says:
So Guv39% has solidified his base. Does he have anything else? He looks more and more like GWB all the time (as if that’s possible since he always has) — divide and conquer politics — hope your base turns out as well as the other candidate’s base and pray that’s enough.
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dodging pickles says:
Texas doesn’t want any of Bailout’s empty rhetoric about what Texas “needs”… the federal government has made such a mess of things and any state in the union would trade places with Texas in a heartbeat. We HAVE leadership, we HAVE someone with vision and most importantly, WE HAVE MONEY IN THE BANK. She has nothing to offer and it is an insult she thought this election would be handed to her on a silver plater.
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Anonymous says:
As a conservative the problem I have is that both candidates are ho hum. KBH has no message except that “I’m tired of Washington and I want to move back to Texas, But I’ll win because I am a UT graduate, sorority girl, and past cheerleader”. RP has no message except “I’ll win because I’ve won all the other times and Sarah Palin is supporting me”. Neither candidate is fresh or new. More of the same ole same ole. BOR-ING and dull. I’ll go with RP out of default. KBH needs to stay in Washington.
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rhino76 says:
Paul,
Do you see John Sharp and Bill White having a come to Jesus meeting in the near future?
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Taylor says:
Paul,
Its hard to take these polls seriously, its like comparing apples and oranges. KBH hasn’t even declared officially, and only knowledgeable citizens (about politics) are even aware of her running for Governor. Once the campaign gets in full drive, then we can compare again.
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I Hate Mayo says:
It must of been one hell of of a staff meeting this morning in KBH land, aka Fantasyland. Rumor is there are staff firings-a’coming, and it looks like the staff left standing are all so scared for their jobs they’re posting here about how desperately Texas needs KBH. More like they desperately need their jobs. The good news for them, however, is that even in this rough economy, Texas is doing relatively well and Austin continues to add jobs…. thanks to Gov. Perry’s leadership.
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texun Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Crediting Rick Perry for the strength of the Texas economy is a classic socialist perspective. Entrepreneurs buit the Texas economy, diversified it, and drive it.
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Anonymous Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
So they’re no entrepreneurs in California?!?! Policies set by government leadership make all the difference. Go read this week’s Economist for a clearer perspective.0
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Anonymous Reply:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:10 am
Provide a link, dipshit
texun Reply:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
A total non seq. anon. California and Texas are oranges and grapefruit.
“Policies set by government leadership make all the difference.” Lenin and Stalin would agree, no doubt.
I read the Econonomist, both for useful information and in the hope that it will outgrow its antiquated 19th century liberal principles.
Dallasite says:
KBH can’t campaign like she needs to until she resigns her seat. A candidate in a hot race can’t spend most of the week in Washington.
Three things she stands for:
*Working with public schools instead of being their enemy.
*Better management of state agencies like the TX Youth commission and TXDOT
*Not being a right wing extremist,thereby being free to find solutions to problems, instead of looking for the next appearance on Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck, etc.
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Pinchy McPinchy Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Does Ned Holmes know that Kay thinks he’s poorly managing TxDOT?
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Anon says:
Seriously, the notebooks must be a’flying over there. KBH staff: stay low and use the “bob and weave”
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Anon says:
So, let me get this straight:
She CAN’T start campaigning yet because she is still a senator…but she doesn’t do anything in Washington either, so that doesn’t really make sense.
Then we have the: people don’t know she is running yet, even though she has been ALL over the state…but don’t worry, they WILL because she is POPULAR!
Maybe there is this to consider:
As real Texans get to know her for the first time (as she has never actually had a real campaign) they are uninspired.
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Kenneth D. Franks says:
Dallasite,
I hope your bullet points are correct.
I also think the majority of Texans are more independent than Republican. They will vote in a Republican Primary or a Democratic Primary if something is important enough to them.
KBH also should say that the Trans-Texas Corridor will be dead forever if she is elected and then follow through with that promise.
Remember when teacher’s elected Mark White and then voted against him four years later.
Independents and many Democrats will cross over if her message is strong enough. The key is independents. That’s why some Republicans want party registration.
This is my perspective as a Democrat.
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Proud KBH supporter says:
It is very funny how so many of you have all of the answers for someone else but write annon. and only quote what someone else has already said – including Mr. Paul B.
From someone who “works for Kay” but in a voluntary position I have heard her express to us in forthright and common sense terms what she thinks and what she wants to do as governor. She is supported by many Texans from all walks. She said when she went to the Senate she would not stay forever. Thus it is time to return to Texas.
One day soon we will try to break down all she has done in the US Senate so those of you quoting her opponent will realize how he has it wrong.
Yes, he has started his campaign early- nothing else to do – but he is using the “Bully Pulpit” – his advantage – but getting his picture in the paper saying he is doing this and that in the last months and we all wonder where has he been in the past years? Oh, I forgot – getting stopped for speeding, using terms not in daily use, etc.I guess was doing the work of the governor! Stay tuned – more to come in the next 8-9 months!!
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Anonymous Reply:
July 9th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
…………”It is very funny how so many of you have all the answers for someone else but write annon……”
HUH? Did I miss the posting of your name—..oh wait……you are “Proud KBH supporter” that’s much different than posting annon–yeah right——-a bit hypocritical no?
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Art Vandelay says:
One day is all it will take to break down “all” she has done in the Senate
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1993 all over again says:
this is true it would only take one day to break down all she did in almost 20 years in DC. Having worked with her in the past I know first hand how hard she works. but get things done? hardly
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McLennan says:
Paul, your analysis would be spot on if this were January and the race was in full swing…but it’s not. KBH announced early on that she would focus on fundraising during the lege session, and come out full force sometime thereafter. Now’s probably the time to do that, but she’s by no means up a creek. This strategy’s been good to her so far–Rick’s no Joe Biden, but he has gone foot-in-mouth plenty of times this session. Not to mention the mudslinging he intiated while KBH stayed above the fray, doing her good works. Just wait until that cash starts rolling around, and then watch the numbers.
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Again in 2010 says:
Despite the many explanations and excuses, this has been a strong week for Perry.
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Clayton Settle says:
Gees, Paul…it’s a little early to be a critic, don’t you think? She hasn’t even officially announced yet. It’s JULY. Give her a little time!
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paulburka Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 11:19 am
She has had from December until July.
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anonymous says:
KBH most certainly has a vision:
The Governor of Texas will be a leader and set a clear agenda for the Texas Legislature to adopt;
The Governor of Texas will manage state agencies to the benefit of the taxpayer and the honor of the state;
The Governor of Texas will not politicize the office;
The Governor of Texas will be an effective leader for all Texans;
The Governor of Texas will possess honor, integrity and a strong work ethic.
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Paul's BFF Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 8:29 am
I guess this means that she has no clue on any issue? not one item or detail on what she would do? please name one thing or issue where the Senior Senator has demonstrated leadership?
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TDCJID says:
PERRY YOU HAD BETTER START PACKING YOUR BAGS, BECAUSE YOU HAVE DONE IT TO TDC FOR THE LAST TIME. WE WILL TURNOUT IN FORCE AND THE FORCE WILL BE WITH US……..
REMEMBER YOUR STATEMENT THAT TRAINED MONKIES COULD DO OUR JOB….WE DO
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anon Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 9:54 am
I’ll bet monkeys could probably spell better than TDCJID.
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VoicesofReason Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 10:25 am
Although this response is not quite abuse, it is pretty childish…
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Voice of Season says:
KBH should pack up and come home and retire. It is obvious that the campaign is where Perry is energized — eye of the tiger. Her Finance Conference call today was a joke and them saying they are right where they want to be is ridiculous. Who is Dennis Nixon (isn’t he Tony Sanchez guy) and why is he playing in a GOP primary? Who is Andrea Mc-something and why is she telling people she and Jim Francis are running the KBH show?
Paul, you know better. Perry isdefining himself and it appears in the polls she has been defined as “DC – The Problem”
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TXParson says:
It is over…I was really looking forward to a battle but it ain’t gonna happen. OK, so the only hope now for new blood in the system is a good, conservative Democrat to take him on – get the general population involved (we need a pass-the-bisquits Pappy entertainer type – and that is not Kinky – sorry Kinkster you just don’t have it) in the vote and then we will have a fight. My guess is she sees the writing on the wall what with the primary voters and all…
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bluebabe says:
“her lack of knowledge of state issues.”
Paul, you nailed it. She has never been a braniac, but ’sorority chick’ won’t cut it when we need a bare-knuckled, snarling warrior. Texans deserve something other than a ‘bipartisan consensus’ on every issue. That means we do what the liberals want.
Give me 4 more years of Perry. Even if it means we have to talk about highways.
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paulburka Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Lack of knowledge of state issues is not a failure of intelligence. It is a failure of willingness to study.
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Rog says:
KBH was a Republican long before it was popular to be a Republican in Texas.
Her reward, is that the Johnny-come-latelys, led by Rick Perry, who was Al Gore’s big supporter, and others, can hardly stand to have her in the party.
At one point, she was almost turned away from the State Republican Party convention, until Bill Clements intervened on her behalf.
And the Republicans wonder why their tent is so small.
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long time GOPER Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 9:04 am
You forget or didn’t about who helped KBH become a delegate to the 1996 and 2000 national conventions when the grassroots refused to seat pro-choicer KBH. It was Rick Perry. He stepped in twice so that she could attend as a voting delegate and not embarrass her and the state party in the national media. In 1996 in San Antonia and in 2000 in Houston, Perry worked the process to ensure her having a seat.
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Joplin, TX says:
Stick a fork in KBH. She is cooked.
The only thing that could get her back on track is a big Perry scandal, a double-digit fundraising number, or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney actively campaigning for her. These three things are all very unlikely.
Perry has already been researched and bashed by Sanchez, Bell, Kinky, Carole, and others. I have a feeling there is a lot of dirt on KBH that her other opponents have never been equipped to find. Perry’s consultants are dropping hints like
crazy that KBH should drop out to save her own reputation. I have heard some stuff that would mean jailtime and ignominy for KBH. Really bad stuff.
Plus, have you ever heard her give a speech? KBH is about as inspiring as a schoolmarm. If Obama taught us anything, it is that oratory skills matter. Perry will outspeak Hutchison. He will out-debate her. He will out-conservative her. He will out-pro-life her. He will out-hustle her. He will probably out-raise her in the end. He will out-2nd amendment her. He will out-fiscal policy her. He will out-celebrity her.
I just don’t see any point to her candidacy at this point. KBH is toast. The only people who think KBH is going to run and win are paid to think that way. She was the clear front-runner as recently as 4 months ago. Today, she looks dead in the water and on a downward spiral. Her campaign staff and Senate staff is all superior to Perry’s. She has more talent and experience around her. The problem is not staff. It is the candidates themselves. Perry is just a better candidate.
I
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Anonymous Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Wishful thinking on your part, Joplin. Here’s one person who thinks KBH is going to run and win…and isn’t paid to think that way. It’s just like the classic UT v. A&M rivalry — the best of all worlds is when they tie and neither wins.
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Anonymous Reply:
July 10th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Come to think of it, 36-24 looks like a decent score in a good football game. Problem for Rick is that he can’t call “scoreboard” yet because the game hasn’t even started.
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Marvin Jones says:
Just wait until the people speak on the issue. The grass roots organization being built is going to get started soon. It is the grass roots that will decide this campaign. People are tired of the policies of Rick Perry, who is committred to big business and big money as seen by his pushing the private toll roads and not paying attention to the wishes of the people. The Trans Texas Toll Road will be his undoing as well as his other policies that benefit a certain group of people and companies.
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down & out says:
i wanted a good show
no worries–we still have the AG race and the 2012 Senate race!
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Neil Kinnock says:
Has anyone seen Joe Biden’s copy of my speech? Thanks.
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KBH Supporter says:
KBH has not even announced her campaign yet!!! She has a lot more money than Perry and a LOT more supporters! Texans are tired of Perry’s failed policies and leadership and laughable antics (Texas could “secede” from the US??? Way to make us the laughing stock of the country.
We need a firm, strong, competent leader. KBH for Governor!!!!!!
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GOP Delegate says:
Longtime GOPer is correct. Rick Perry convinced the delegation twice to have KBH selected as a Delegate and avoid embarassment. Those of us who know her know she would not do the same for him or anyone else — she knows it and her STAFF and friends know it. KBH is for KBH and nobody else. We at the grassroots have tolerated KBH long enough. 16 years in DC makes her part of the problem not a solution. For many of us its just not about abortion or guns or gays, its about sound fiscal policies — like we have in Texas. Not like KBH created and supported in DC.
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should be illegal says:
nobody can blame her for staying in the race…
her advisers & consultants are telling her she’s gonna win, and they’re getting paid a pretty penny (deja vu…tony sanchez). if they tell her to gracefully drop out–that it’s impossible to win against the guy running the 12th largest economy in the world–they have to look for work.
they keep her in the Washington fantasy bubble where everyone is out of touch with Texas & Texans–they truly believe she’ll win up there in DC
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Anonymous Reply:
July 11th, 2009 at 8:48 am
Perry’s strategy (and that of his supporters) is so transparent: try to create the illusion of invincibility and hope KBH never enters a race that they know she will easily win hands down. It’s so Hillaryesque!
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Anon says:
Kay should either run as an Independent, keep her Senate seat, or drop out gracefully and enjoy post-public life. She can’t win the GOP Primary. Washington has become such a sour label, it’s kryptonite. She could win the Lt Gov Primary against Dewhurst. But she probably thinks that’s beneath her.
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Sastre Skoda says:
That comment earlier about Perry’s strategy being to create an illusion of invincibility is ironic, because that aura of inevitability was KBH’s strategy 6 months ago– before her campaign tanked and Perry became the darling of the base. Now Rick Perry is the clear favorite, and KBH would have to win over roughly 4/5 of undecideds to break even.
The KBH folks are getting almost desperate with their chants:
Results, not politics.
Results, not politics.
Results, not politics.
You can say it as much as you want, but it doesn’t mean anything unless you name some results. Name one result, even. What results has Kay achieved? I mean, other than hundreds of millions of dollars in earmarks over the years, what has KBH actually accomplished in her time in the Senate? What legislation has her name on it? Homemaker IRAs?
BTW, “Results, Not Politics” is borrowed from a North Carolina Democrat: http://www.alswanstrom.com/ Is it a coincidence that one of KBH’s staffers came straight from that same part of North Carolina? Very interesting.
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cyrus says:
Talk about the elephant in the room…
KBH may be keeping her powder extremely dry and missing opportunities, but regardless of her current numbers, 36% for an INCUMBENT from his own party’s primary voters is absolutely abysmal, and there’s no caveat that can change that. Her numbers may have dropped, vacillated, whatever – but Perry’s have stayed well below 50% since polling began. I mean, that’s a very bad sign for a GENERAL election poll – but to be pulling under 40% in a GOP primary heat is horrendous for any incumbent. He may very well win, but let’s stop trying to spit-shine this turd, kids. 3 in 5 of his own party’s voters don’t pick him when given a choice.
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Anonymous Reply:
July 11th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Exactly, cyrus. After this long you’ve got to think it’s a pretty hard sell to say it’s a name recognition problem, huh?
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Basic Math Reply:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
It appears Perry critics are having trouble with math, or the assumptions behind the math. First, carrying over Perry’s current primary vote to the general is a perilous assumption. There are a whole bunch of people who don’t vote in primaries and do vote in generals who vote Republican. There are also a number of KBH voters who will soldify behind the nominee.
Second, the undecided does not neatly equate to “dissatisfied R voters.” Some of them may actually like both and haven’t decided which one to cote for. Others, may have moved from one candidate, but aren’t sure they are for the other one. But once they vote, they will have to choose. Both Perry’s and KBH’s ultimate percentage will benefit from that.
Third, this is not Perry against a Railroad Commissioner. It is Perry against a 16-year R senator. Of course that will reduce his current vote support. But, he has already gained 19 points on her in three month. These numbers are anything but “horrendous.”
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cyrus Reply:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Excuses excuses. He hasn’t “gained” squat. He’s dragged her numbers down. period. And yet moved none of those people into his column.
“Neatly” is your term, not mine, but clearly there’s a great deal of dissatisfaction among R voters. Perry wouldn’t be facing the challenge of a 16-year incumbent Senator if he hadn’t managed to piss off a substantial portion of the GOP base in Texas, so the “nothing to see here” nonsense is absurd. A 2-term sitting governor, with the spotlight and press game conceded to him for 6 months and a whole lege session to grandstand around, and he still has less than 40% of his own party’s loyalists lined up behind him in his bid for re-election.
As for Rs closing ranks in the general, that may certainly happen to some extent, but they don’t have the same cushion they did in ‘06, and Perry’s scorched-earth strategy is likely to leave quite a few reliably R voters at home or send them across the aisle next November (which assumes, of course, that a credible Dem runs).
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Anonymous Reply:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
You’re still missing the point, Basic Math. KBH’s numbers are horrible, too. But it speaks volumes (to those who have ears to hear) that a 10-year governor can’t poll 40% in his own party, and that he and a 16-year incumbent senator can’t combine to poll more than 60% of the voters in their own party!
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Tamsterbath says:
KBH’s campaign reminds me of Hillary Clinton’s run for President. They are taking way too much for granted and assuming they have it in the bag.
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Anonymous Reply:
July 12th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Fortunately for her, Perry is just another GWB. Even in Texas – the state with the lowest percentage of high school graduates in the country — there still are enough people who don’t have to be taught that lesson again.
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Dewhurst's Watch Winder says:
Governor Perry’s poll numbers better not lull him into believing that Hutchison won’t run. Take a look at her county leadership teams. Pretty sobering. They are the folks that tend to lead the way in those counties.
http://texans.forkay.com/counties?countyid=&commit=Go
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anonymous says:
No poll has asked me, but the reality is Perry will have to thug his way on the ticket without my vote.
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Anonymous Reply:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Yes, I love the Kelso column in Saturday’s Statesman: Who Do We Want for Guv? Someone Else, Anyone Else?
http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/2009/07/12/0712kelso.html
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Robert Morrow says:
VOTE AGAINST RICK PERRY IN 2010:
If Rick Perry is the GOP nominee in 2010, he could bring down the entire Republican party with him. Beyond that Rick Perry has crossed the line too many times on too many issues. He needs to go out to pasture.
Rick Perry’s record:
• Toll Roads and Trans Texas Corridor – Is it socialism, fascism or communism? (2003)
• Business Margins Tax – backdoor state income tax (2006)
• HPV vaccine mandate – Attack on parental rights (2007)
• FLDS El Dorado raid – Religious Oppression, traumatizes 438 children and their parents; out of control Child Protective Services raid based on crank phone call (2008)
• Defeats Steven Wayne Smith – makes robo phone calls against most conservative Supreme Court judge in modern Texas history (2004)
• Vetoes Texas Eminent Domain Bill – taking your land for a toll road more important than signing property rights protection overwhelmingly passed by Legislature. (2007)
• Signs Hate Crimes bill — Attack on free speech and creates thought crimes, includes sexual orientation as a class! (2001)
• Globalist bootlicker – for United Nations, NAFTA, CAFTA, Trans Texas Corridor, Bilderberger suck up.
• Governor for 9 years, then reads about the 10th Amendment a few weeks ago. (2009)
• Supports No Child Left Behind Act and Dept. of Education (Hey, is the federal government running your local school in the Constitution? Fine with Rick Perry.)
• Endorsers liberal cross dresser Rudy Guiliani for President (2008) – tells his good friend Mike Huckabee I love you like a brother, but you can’t win so I am going with Rudy Julie Annie, he’s a sure thing! The Bilderbergers said I can be VP if I grovel enough and am for toll roads, globalism, open borders, big government and, of course, the Federal Reserve.
• Token opposition to illegal immigration – probably because the illegals will be building all his toll roads! Opposes wall on Mexican border.
• Does not stand up for elected State Board of Education every time it gets castrated by the liberals in the legislature (2000s). Throws crumbs to conservatives on SBOE, but when they really need him, hides under desk, sticks fingers in ears.
• Instituted state CHIP program!, a widely abused program and one more step to socialized medicine, more taxes and rationed healthcare. (Hey, is CHIP in the 10th Amendment?)
• Texas Enterprise Fund – basically, Rick Perry’s slush fund for politically connected insiders, another WASTE of your tax dollars. Big Government + Big Business = Fascism.
• Supports whopping $3 Billion Cancer BOND, the Lance Armstrong cancer tax – more taxing, more borrowing and more spending. (2007).
• Tries to intimidate FEMALE state trooper who pulls him over for speeding while he was lieutenant governor, telling her “Why don’t you just let us get on down the road?” as she was writing him a ticket.
• Tells a Houston tv reporter Ted Oberg “Adios, mofo.” (2005) I’ve got a feeling who the voters are going to be saying “Adios” to in 2010 in the GOP primary …
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wowzers says:
…enter the self-marginalizing, black-helicopter Ron Paul guy walking around Austin & yelling at anyone he sees (and inanimate objects when people are not around).
You’ve heard his talking points before: “the North American Union is taking over & the bilderberg folks are gonna put chips in our brains. We should halt all trade with foreign nations & kill the Messicans. We don’t need no government building roads & schools–we should all move to Ron Paul communes (no, really http://paulville.org/ ). Dr. Ron Paul & Debra Medina are our only hope!”
beyond-the-right-wingers preaching against the most conservative governor in Texas’ history. It makes me laugh. It will be the undoing of you R’s in Texas eventually…
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Harry Doghiney says:
This thread is as stale as a Republican’s topsiders.
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Phelps says:
Hutchinson voted for TARP.
Perry rejected TARP money.
Those are the only things that the average Texas GOP voter is going to know heading into the booth at the primary.
Stick a fork in her. She didn’t have the guts to make the vote that could have gotten her the office.
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DM Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
You are confusing TARP and stimulus funds. TARP was proposed by Pres. Bush to bail out banks. The new Texas state budget in fact includes *lots* of stimulus money. Perry only rejected the extended unemployment funds, since he did not want to increase benefits. This was financially foolish, since Sen. Steve Ogden stated that by taking the money and changing the law, Texas would come out ahead for about the first seven years (and could then change the law). Instead, since Perry rejected the funds, Texas will shortly have to start borrowing to cover the unemployment fund deficit. In other words, Perry’s grandstanding will drive up unemployment insurance rates for Texas businesses. Thanks.
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Jed says:
said borrowing is now in the works.
meanwhile, i am astonished to see the emotion on display here by the two camps, when i can’t for the life of me see any real difference between their candidates. as a democrat, i would gladly vote in the republican primary next spring, if i could either (a) decide which of the two i’d prefer having, or (b) decide which of the two i think is more beatable. unfortunately, i don’t think either (a) or (b) is possible.
instead, i may have to vote for watson in the primary, since it will be my last chance to do so.
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Cas says:
I know that the Senate Race is attempting to project the elite power players due to campaign fund raising but it would be interested to see a poll with Andrew P. Castanuela running. His candidacy was submitted in late May 09 and his coming out was July 4th. The possibility of having a Hispanic Republican running who appears to also be pulling some Hispanic and old Texas Democrat votes will make the election in May 2010 a little more entertaining if not a possible upset. He is being supported by a grass roots movement that doesn’t involve the big money donors but the average Texas (upper and lower) middle and working class!
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