Mark Davis: Is 60% R is better than a D?
I was driving to the office today, punching buttons on the car radio, when I landed on KTRH in Houston, a Fox station. Dallas talk show host Mark Davis was sitting in for Rush Limbaugh, and a caller dialed in to complain that Newt Gingrich and other prominent Republicans are supporting assemblywoman Deirdre Scozzafava, who is pro-choice and pro-gay marriage, in the upcoming special election to represent New York’s 23rd congressional district. The seat was vacated by Republican John McHugh, who resigned last spring after Obama nominated him to become Secretary of the Army, succeeding former Texas congressman Pete Geren.
This is historically a Republican district. No Democrat has represented this area since 1871, and McHugh always topped 60%. Bush won the district in ‘00 (49-47) and ‘04 (51-47), but Obama won 52% here in 08. The district, entirely north of Albany, is very rural and spread out; it touches Lake Ontario on the northwest, Canada on the north, and Vermont on the east.
What makes the race interesting is not just the possibility that the Democrat (Bill Owens) might win it. It is a split on the right: Scozzafava must contend with a strong third-party nominee, Doug Hoffman, who is carrying the banner of the Conservative party and has the enthusiastic support of the Club for Growth. Hoffman’s policy positions, as you can imagine, are opposite from Scozzafava’s.
I listened in fascination as the caller argued that conservative voters should support Hoffman instead of Scozzafava. It was the same purifying instinct that you see from folks here like Michael Quinn Sullivan and Cathie Adams, the new Republican party chairman. Mark Davis was the voice of moderation. “If you have a 60% Republican, isn’t that better than a Democrat?” he asked the caller. “If this is an area that tends to be more moderate, shouldn’t Republicans support the person who is more likely to win?” [I wasn't taking notes while I was driving; this is not a verbatim quote, but the "60% Republican" quote is.] I was impressed (and surprised) to hear a talk show host who was the voice of reason. Of course, the caller didn’t buy it.
But it is no cinch that Scozzafava can win. She led three early polls in September, then Owens took the lead in early October. But the latest poll shows Hoffman shooting past the major party candidates. From the Club for Growth web site:
A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.
The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.
As long as conservatives believe that moderates in their own party are the enemy, Republicans will continue to lose ground nationally (if they have any ground left to lose). And Texas is not immune. There is a very real danger that Rick Perry’s attacks on Kay Bailey Hutchison, if successful, will continue to drive the moderate R’s out of the party into the independent column, accelerating the possibility that a Democrat could win the general election. Oh, wait. The D’s would have to field a credible candidate. Never mind.
Tagged: bill owens, deirdre scozzafava, mark davis.
Glen Maxey says:
“Deirdre Scozzafava, who is pro-life and pro-gay marriage”
Isn’t their problem that she is pro-choice?
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paulburka Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
yeah, my fault
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Texas Conservative says:
In addition to being pro-choice, she’s pro-stimulus, pro-card check, pro-higher taxes, supports labor in direct opposing to Republican ideals and so on and so forth. She isn’t a 60% republican, more like a 20% republican.
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Pat Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
At some point Republicans have to start worrying about getting enough votes to control Congress again. That was the point Davis was making. But hey, if you’d rather be “pure,” I’m sure Nancy Pelosi wouldn’t mind another term as Speaker.
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paulburka Reply:
October 26th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
Texas Conservative — OK, would you rather have a 20% Republican or a Democrat?
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Pat says:
Paul, I’m a little befuddled. In the past, you’ve criticized me and other commenters for taking what you call a “one-dimensional” view of the conservative base, roughly meaning that those voters always favor the most pure conservatives and rarely take account of other issues in the voting booth. Here, you argue that such one-dimensionality is alive and well across the country. My question is, how would you distinguish your viewpoint from my own?
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paulburka says:
I’m not sure exactly what you mean … My main concern is that Republican enforcers do not have a big-tent mentality. They want to define conservatism to fit their views and purge anyone who has a different view. In the long run, this will diminish, if not destroy, the Republican party. I can’t distinguish my viewpoint from your own because your description of your viewpoint does not fit my understanding of my viewpoint.
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Alan says:
I’ve never understood the logic behind the all-or-nothing approach to picking candidates. Isn’t it better to pick someone who will give you half of what you want and win than to lose on principle and wind up with a Democrat who will give you none of what you want? At the end of the day, politics is about compromise and deal-making; anyone who thinks otherwise is just naive.
The Democrats have done a far better job of fielding candidates that are good fits for their districts. Look at Travis Childers in Mississippi – he votes with the Republicans almost as much as he votes with the Democrats. Why? Because he represents a conservative district in the Deep South. They know running a Nancy Pelosi in cotton country is going to end in disaster. The liberal Dems don’t like the Blue Dogs, but they’re not going on an off-with-their-heads crusade against them. They kind of like having a majority in the House and the Senate.
The problem in Texas isn’t going to be in the governor’s race, but in congressional elections. The tea party folks (read: the 9/12 Project) are fielding primary challengers to Republican Congressman they have deemed insufficiently conservative. Someone named Tyler Russell is planning to challenge Kevin Brady (www.TylerRussellForCongress.com). And I can see them trying to pick off Kay Granger and Lamar Smith too. Kay Granger’s seat would probably be the Democrats’ best bet to pick up if the activists got rid of her and ran a God-and-guns Jacobin in her place.
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Texas Conservative says:
In this instance, I’d rather have a democrat. No one has a problem if you’re running republicans like Collins or Snowe in Maine. But when you are running a Crist instead of a Rubio in Florida, or a Scozzafava instead of Hoffman in seats where a half way decent republican can win is when you get into trouble. Part of the problem over the past eight years of the republican brand is due to republicans like Scozzfava being in charge and acting like democrats with their large spending agendas. Might as well have the D win this special and get a real republican to run in 2010.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 7:15 am
“Democrats with their large spending agendas.” — Ever take a look at which administrations ran up the federal budget deficit?? Long before there was an Obama, not only was there a George W. Bush, but also a Ronald Reagan. You have to go all the way back to Ford to find a Republican administration that didn’t spend more than a Democratic one. Get off your high horse and stop pretending your Party is something it isn’t and hasn’t been for decades. Democratic Presidents have been much more fiscally conservative.
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Interested voter Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Well said and so true.
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Garvin Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 10:28 am
So true. The GOP has no legit claim to fiscal responsibility.
Anonymous says:
Paul,
If you are so enamored with Mark Davis, why haven’t you bothered to interview him for Texas Monthly? Put him on the cover next month.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Mark Davis’ head will not fit on the cover of TM.
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Anonymous Forever Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 11:07 pm
My thoughts, exactly. I accidentally listen to Davis while driving to work every morning ~ he’s hardly the voice of moderation. He loves to play he devil’s advocate, but he’s just playin’. He sees the pendulum swinging. Probably just wants to be sure he has a job in the future.
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Anonymous Forever Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 11:07 pm
“the” devil’s advocate.
East Texan says:
Texas Conservative,
You use the term “Real Republican.” What does that mean? What is a “real Republican?” Republican in NY isn’t going to mean the same as it does in Georgia, and what it means in Georgia isn’t going to mean the same thing in Texas. Hell, look at Texas and the differences between the Kay Grangers, John Carters, and the Ron Pauls.
Our strength is in numbers. And right now the GOP needs numbers. No majority means no Committee chairs, which means no control over legislation.
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Texas Conservative says:
East Texan
A real republican would be someone who is generally pro-life, pro-second amendment, for limited government and regulation, low tax, etc. However, there are slight variances from this. I acknowleged that not all states are created the same and that all republican candidates can be rock-ribbed conservatives. In fact I specifically mentioned the twins up in Maine as perfect examples. It can also be seen in Kirk running for IL Senate, former Sens Sununu in NH and Smith in Oregon as moderate republicans, but republicans nonetheless. Constrated with noted moderate Republicans Specter, Jeffords, Chaffee and Strayhorn. Or how a Collin County republican and a Travis County republican are two different animals.
The GOP needs numbers sure, but when part of the problem is that the GOP is acting like Democrats, it doesn’t help when all you are doing is electing a democrat with a R by her name. In a seat that could elect and re-elect a Hoffman, it makes no sense to support a Scozzafava. Especially considering gaining one more vote the remainder of this term will help none or losing will hurt none.
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billrider says:
Paul,
Republicans don’t want a big tent in the way you’ve portrayed it. We want to use the Reagan big tent philosophy of convincing others that our tent is the tent that they want to be in. We have forgotten how to do that by acting like Democrats combined with not providing Americans with any new or innovative ideas. Scozzafava will not help in this area.
In response to the 60%/20% question, why support a 60% or 20%(Scozzafava) candidate in a district where a 80+% candidate can win? We are a party lost in the wilderness. Lets at least hold on to a couple of core principles while we are out there. I can make a couple of exceptions and use the 60%/20% candidate for a district that is actually liberal to get that 51% majority we need.
Plus, when have Republicans ever flourished, as a whole, by electing or nominating liberal or moderate Republicans?
Also, have you ever asked yourself the question how Scozzafava got the nomination in the first place?
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Anonymous Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Keep it up, all you myopic, trunk to tail, Repubs.
Before long, your numbers might be in the single digits percentage wise. Reasonable, moderate conservative thinking will eventually prevail, and you will be directed to the few dusty seats that the John Birch’ers once occupied, way, way off to the right.
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paulburka Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 10:47 am
I wrote how Scozzafava got the nomination. The county Republican chairs voted on it, there were multiple candidates, and she won.
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billrider Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Paul,
Do you think this might be more about ousting a liberal republican chosen by an out of touch leadership than republicans not being able to accept a moderate?
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Lake Worth Monster Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
How about Teddy Roosevelt? Or Dwight Eisehnower? Or Nelson Rockefeller? Or Robert Taft? Or Richard Nixon? Gerald Ford? George HW Bush? I know the list starts getting a bit thin after these guys were purged.
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Anonymous says:
Reagan’s “Big Tent” = Exorbitant military-industrial complex spending with tax cuts and ballooning federal budget deficits. Hmmm…I thought you weren’t claiming the GWB philosophy of governance any more because he wasn’t conservative enough.
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Texian Politico says:
I think there is a very good chance that Hoffman wins this race. Scozzafava is liberal on every issue, not just 40% of the issues. She’s also for card-check, cap and trade, etc, etc. The only reason she is a Republican is because her state house district has long been Republican. Her husband is a big union boss and even approached the Democrats about her being their nominee in this race.
What is worse, she was picked by party bosses and the voters had no voice. Now they do. They have a choice of a Conservative, a liberal Republican, or a Democrat that is a blank slate. Scozzafava has also run such a bad race she even called the police on a reporter! No joke. She didn’t like being asked how she would vote on certain issues and had the police called. Amazing. She will lose. The winner will be either Hoffman or the Democrat and I’d prefer either of them. Most Republicans don’t want someone in office as a “Republican” that is more liberal than Arlen Spector and Jim Jeffords.
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texican says:
paul,
being for card check is a deal breaker for me. most moderate Democrats aren’t for that, so why should the republican base support it?
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MonkeyMan says:
Let the purge continue — R’s will narrow their base more and more, become a party with such a limited focus as to become irrelevant but to the White, Southern, Peggy Venable’s and Anita Bryant’s of the world.
This, coupled with the demographic shifts that we are seeing now in Texas, means Democrats will become more viable more quickly in statewide races. As a Democrat, I love it.
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Texian Politico Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Exactly, that’s why the GOP is going to sweep all of Virginia next Tuesday and could win in NJ, too.
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East Texan says:
Re: Card check
This is a deal breaker for me as well, and I consider myself a pretty moderate Republican by Texas standards.
Card check is a deal breaker for me on any candidate. Its awful plan, and given the way the Unions have destroyed manufacturing, customer service, and efficiency in this country, it should never, ever be allowed to pass.
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Anonymous Liberal Lout says:
The question to ask, of course, is what messasge with the knee-jerk republicans take away from the New York race if Hoffman wins the nomination and loses in the general? Will it be that the candidate was too conservative for the district? Or will there be other excuses?
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Anonymous Liberal Lout says:
Oops. Embarrased myself a few minutes ago. What I should have said, is “What will happen if Hoffman wins the special, but loses in the General?”
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roadways says:
I care most about decency. Opposing reproductive rights and gay equality is not morally decent. I give Scozzafava a lot of credit for her honorable stance. But, then, I’m a Democrat.
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Joe says:
Texas Conservative wrote, “noted moderate Republicans Specter, Jeffords, Chaffee and Strayhorn.”
If he is referring to our esteemed former mayor and state comptroller, she is an independent now. While some might argue that ambition led her out of the party, the bigger reason is that she no longer could abide the dominance of the social conservatives — Goodhair’s core constituency — in the Republican Party of Texas. On the national scene, that’s a big part of the reason former U.S. Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party in 2001.
I grew up as a Republican in a conservative Midwestern Republican family, but I, too, left the party as it shrunk toward the hard right. Even Barry Goldwater came to bemoan the growing power of the social conservatives in the party; I’m certain he would not applaud the election of the new RPoT chairwoman.
I consider myself an independent who, as Jeffords did, caucuses with the Democrats, sometimes reluctantly, largely because most of them are not social conservative hardliners or, almost as important, owned lock, stock and barrel by the insurance and pharmaceutical industries.
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anon says:
Hey Paul -
Quick change of subject here.
After this weekend of college football, are you going to now claim that typically conservative Lubbock had their Red Raiders throw the game against a horrible A&M team in order to take the heat off of the Aggie head coach and defacto take some heat off of Perry as well?
I know it sounds crazy, but no crazier than your theory that Coach Sherman will be a liability for Perry this Spring.
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Jamie says:
I don’t think you are reading this one right, Paul. Scozzafava is not hated because she is not a social conservative, she is hated because she is pro-cap and trade, pro-union, pro-Obamacare, etc. etc. Those are the issues of our day, and she is on the wrong side of all of them.
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texican says:
roadways,
then what do you have to say to the majority of democrats, especially african-american and hispanics that oppose gay marriage?
anyone that thinks because more people identify as a democrat than a republican, that this means more people are for gay marriage is wrong. for evidence, look at recent california election. they voted for obama, against gay marriage.
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texican says:
http://thehill.com//blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/64971-mich-democrat-pelosi-not-happy-with-me
So if party’s should expand their tent, then all of the liberals are good with this Michigan democrat fighting against abortion?
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lobster says:
Howdy.. Let me just say, Mark Davis does us DFW folk proud whenever he is in the national spotlight, be it sitting in for Rush or on a Hannity panel.. He is truly a fair host who never lets his own personal bias affect logic and reasoning. Very rarely will you hear a host concede when a caller raises an excellent point, as Mr. Davis humbly does on rare occasions. It’s noteworthy because he is not the standard run-of-the-mill angry conservative host, and this is why he is a part of my morning commute.
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paulburka Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
That was pretty much my impression from the few minutes I listened to. I can’t imagine Rush saying the sorts of things Mark Davis was saying.
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Anonymous Forever Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
Don’t be fooled by a few minutes of him. Lobster is probably part of his conservative fan base. Daviis doesn’t scream like some of them…but he does a lot of heavy sighing. And lots of propaganda.
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Stevie F. says:
Texas conservative says that a Republican is “generally pro-life, pro-second amendment, for limited government and regulation, low tax, etc.” That may be a very reasonable start. However, once a bunch of single-interest groups weighs in–almost anyone can be made to look like a demon. The GOP today (like the Democrats in the mid-80s) are letting these strident interest groups call the shots. That means that when the nominating season starts up it’s taken over by the kind of extreme language found in direct mail fundraising appeals. Anyone who has ever voted for a fee increase is trashed for raising taxes. A common sense restrictions on assault weapons to some suddenly becomes “taking away your guns.” Anyone who votes to limits the cost of living increase on seniors opposes Social Security and is going to have Gradma eating dog food. As long as the fringe groups are setting the agenda on each issue you’re going to be in trouble. The party needs an identification beyond the demands of the groups that hold it hostage.
This happens to both parties. The danger comes when the party is dominated by interest who are sure they are right and see no need to compromise. billrider tell us that “We want to use the Reagan big tent philosophy of convincing others that our tent is the tent that they want to be in.” That ignores the possibility that people don’t want to be in your tent because it’s not as big as you think. Maybe it just looks big from the inside looking out.
Also, it’s not a matter of salesmanship. Don’t assume that another Reagan will come along and suddenly convince everyone that the Republican party that lost an election and is down in the polls should actually be popular. Quit blaming the messenger and come to grips with the fact that the GOP needs to loosen up a little.
Or, wait a couple of years, nominate yourself another Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale type candidate, and see how that works out for you.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Mr. Burka, I don’t see the TX Democrats taking back the Governor’s Mansion until at least 2014 once Perry retires (assuming he pisses folks off more in the next 4 years).
GOP fatigue is going to play a factor SOONER OR LATER.
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paulburka Reply:
October 27th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
At the rate Democrats are performing in statewide races, 2018 is more like it. The party has zero credibility.
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John Johnson says:
In order to pass the Republican “test” and wear the colors, does one have to answer all the quesitons correctly? Would someone wearing the proper blazer, shirt, pants and shoes be blackballed becasue he was wearing white socks?
You won’t find Beck, O’Reilly or Hannity calling themselves Republican. Beck says that he is a Libertarian and the other two call themselvs “conservative”.
It is truly time for a third party. One with a conservative tilt; that is inclusive; leaves Right to Life issues off their agenda, except to insure that taxpayers are not paying for abortions; halts the runaway spending; secures the borders; brings troops home; increases the CIA budget; goes green while still using the hydrocarbons underneath us; insures that the U.S. is not getting cheated on thru current international trade laws and tariffs; regulates water, natural gas and electricity, busts up the large financial cabals; more closely monitors Wall Street; changes the laws governing hedging and credit default swaps; pushes income tax reform; finds a way to get competition into insurance/healthcare (currently, there is none); and understands that it is not in our best interests to play Big Brother all over the world.
Have I forgotten anything?
Cow Droppings tells me that a third party, for several reasons, will never be strong enough in the U.S. to make it to the top. I hope he is wrong.
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Fiftycal Reply:
October 31st, 2009 at 8:40 pm
How can you tell what colour someone’s socks are when they are wearing boots? And no Texas candidate is going to campaign wearing anything but boots. Silly.
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Brisoce Democrat says:
Burka, Houston Mayor Bill White (D) has a good chance to win KBH’s Senate seat for the Democrats in a special election because the Democrats are going to need all the Senate seats they’re going to get.
On the TX Democrats question, let’s play devil’s advocate here: Perry wins reelection to a 3rd full term being the state’s 4th governor since Shivers, Daniel and Connally to serve 3 terms and retires in 2014 not seeking a 4th term, allowing Dehwurst to succeed him on January 20, 2015…. Then GOP fatigue sets in and folks are sick of one party dominance and the Dew abruptly chooses not to seek reelection in 2018 because he’ll by 73 years old by then and the TX Democrats win back the Governor’s Mansion.
How’s that ?
What about the possibility of TX Democrats taking back either chamber of the Legislature in 2012 or 2014 ?
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Fiftycal Reply:
October 31st, 2009 at 8:38 pm
How old will Kinky be in 2015 and will he still be the dimorats best shot at winning a state wide race? Oh, and who says Kay baby is going to quit her Senate seat? I think she will pull out and stay in the Senate.
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eyeswideopen says:
Fatigue sets in … in 2015? What is it that we are feeling now? What I feel, at this moment, for Texas Democrats is pity. What I have felt for Texas Republicans, for the last several years, is disgust. I am, however, mentally fatigued from trying to figure out just who Obama really is and where is taking us. It is possible to be weary and scared at the same time. This optimist is here to tell you that 2015 does not look good for anyone.
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woodhillboy says:
In my humble opinion the conservative “tea party” wing of Republicans are trying to pull it back to it’s conservative roots. I believe they will be successful. It is early in the process and what you see now is not the finished product. The goal is to make them take notice of conservatives and not just write us off as always blindly voting for “R”.
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Fiftycal says:
Hey, if you are Pro-homosexual marriage, pro-amnesty for illegal aliens, pro-union, etc., you are a DEMOCRAT. Why would you vote for a Republican? This is why we ended up with McCain as a Presidential candidate. The geniuses that head up the Republican party said, “gee, we need a moderate that doesn’t stand for anything and looks like a liberal. Then people and the press will love us and vote for our guy and WE will WIN! And winning is all anything is about”. And if 4% of the vote had changed, McCain would be President and would most likely have done the same things Obammy has done.
Well, thank allah the RINO in NY pulled out of the race.
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