As the twig is bent, so Branch is inclined
Here’s how I read Dan Branch’s decision to run for re-election, and it doesn’t take a whole lot of smarts to figure it out. The belief has taken hold among Republican wannabes that Hutchison is not going to resign her seat. Whether it is true or not, they believe it. Dewhurst believes it. That leaves Ted Cruz with an unobstructed shot at AG. He is a great lawyer, and great lawyers can become great AGs (John Hill, for one). But if he is as political as Greg Abbott is (why, sure, Perry wants the Willingham materials to be privileged, no problem), then it will be more of same.
Founding Father says:
Dale Wainwright is way ahead in the poll for AG. Cruz is second. Another rich, white guy (Branch) is not what the Rs need on their Nov 2010 statewide ticket.
Abbott is also way ahead of Dewhurst in polls in a head-to-head. Abbott just may run against Dewhurst for Lt Gov, letting Cruz and Wainwright duke it out for AG.
Several D state reps who thought they were safe are also going to find themselves with excellent R opponents in the coming days/weeks.
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Austin Insider says:
Branch is making the right call because he is a very astute political observer. KBH is not going to resign her seat. Therefore, there will not be a real Lt Gov. race (Abbot will not run the Dew). Therefore, there will not be a real AG race. And the officeholder wannabe train will continue to back up on the track.
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Factual Frank says:
I think Branch is smart enought to stay clear of the political nuclear bomb that is 2010. Of course, if “she” never pulls the trigger, a bunch of Rs are going to be left standing around and spinning their wheels. Branch will still be leading the charge in higher education with a bright future ahead that is not tarnished by a messy situation he just avoided.
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Harry Doghiney (D-TX) says:
Who is Dan Branch?
Who is Dale Wainwright?
I guess they’re Republicans.
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GOP Realist says:
John O’Quinn passed away today. Him and Fred Baron in the same year. Wow.
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Matlock says:
Paul, what law school did you go to? Since when did legal memos for an atty. to a client become open records? If you can believe what you read the Perry folks released 832 pages of documents on the slef confessed triple murderer and have withheld just one which is a legal memo from the Governor’s General Counsel to the Governor. Why don’t you go back to flacking for BFF KBH—oh wait that’s right you never stopped.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Matlock is having a bad day. He’s so blind with emotion that he can’t even find his way to the topic at hand. God bless you.
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Matlock Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Anon, at 1:06 read the orginal post
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Anonymous Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
My bad, Matlock. Unlike you, I was focused on seeing only my version of the “truth.”
paulburka Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 9:09 am
Re Matlock and the attorney-client privilege:
–I went the the University of Texas School of Law. Sometimes.
–The question is whether the governor’s decision to grant clemency is really a policy decision, rather than a legal decision. I think it is clear that the decision to grant or withhold clemency is a policy matter, not a legal matter. All the legal issues have been settled by the time a clemency plea reaches the governor’s desk. The attorney can review what the governor’s role is, and he can give his own opinion about whether the governor ought to grant clemency, but the advice pertains to a policy decision, not a legal decision. And if it is a policy decision, then there is no reason why the memo should be privileged. Not every communication from the lawyer to the client is privileged. This is the crux of the Houston Chronicle’s open records lawsuit. It isn’t as open-and-shut as Matlock makes it seem, and it doesn’t matter whether the governor released 832 pages of documents or 1,832 pages. It still doesn’t mean that advice about a policy decision is privileged.
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Anonymous Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Paul, attorney-client is not the only privilege. The Public Information Act also protects “deliberative process” (advice, opinions and recommendations) on policymaking issues. Section 552.111.
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triplebee Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Matlock, there actually are plenty of instances where attorney/client communications have been subject to disclosure under as open records. The AG’s office doesn’t recognize the attorney/client privilege as a mandatory exception, but instead it is discretionary. Check out the City of Dallas case pending with the Texas Supreme Court for one example of when legal memos are considered to be open records.
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texmex says:
I’d go with Wainwright on this one. Cruz is good, but I don’t think he’s AG material. There is something missing about him.
Branch would be ok if he got it, but I wouldn’t vote for him.
If Abbott is going to win Lt. Gov, he will need a more mature campaign staff. They are good for running maintenace, but they won’t be able to get him through a tough primary. Same problem Michael Williams has, which has prevented myself, and others, from writing checks.
Speaking of Kay Bailey, what has she been up to? Both camps have went underground recently.
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Briscoe Democrat Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
TexMex, with Perry appointing 2 African Americans and 2 Latinos to the Texas Supreme Court, any chance he appoints another minority to the state’s highest court because assuming he wins a 3rd term in 2010, he’s not done yet.
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Muster76 says:
texmex,
Why is Abbott’s camp not mature enough to get him through a primary?
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Prince Royal says:
Matlock, it sounds to me like that one little old piece of paper may be the most important of all the papers, so I think HouChron may be onto something.
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asmith says:
Geoff Bailey in HD102 isn’t one of those excellent candidates though he will have funding because of his employer.
I guess that means Dewhurst gets to become a Senator and Abbott runs for LG. I bet Strauss talked Branch into staying in his seat. If it were ever open the Dems would have a shot.
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Kathy Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
Asmith,
I’m not sure why you dont think Geoff isn’t a good candidate. He came and spoke to my women’s group and I was very impressed. I really like how he talks about education and transortation, and he is focused on creating jobs in North Texas. I like him.
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Rog says:
Alberto is back in Texas. The Republican party can always draft him to run for AG.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Wainwright is NOT running for State Attorney General in 2010.
Burka, has he discussed any interest in Abbott’s job ?
Dewhurst is plotting for 2014 to get the Governor’s Mansion regardless what happens in 2010 and my money is on Perry winning the primary and reelection in the general, then striking a deal with the Dew to have the top gig for himself in ‘14.
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Geoff says:
I am sorry to read Dan Branch will not run for AG if a race for AG happens. The party of competition needs some competition in that race. Texas deserves the best and right now the best is not an option.
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East Texan says:
Hey Paul,
You say expect more of the same. So does that mean more of collecting child support from dead beat parents and locking up sexual predators that prey on our kids? If that is the case, then I’m for more of the same.
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paulburka Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 9:11 am
Yes, and using federal money to make felons of black women who help people in nursing homes vote.
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windmill Reply:
October 31st, 2009 at 12:31 pm
PB, are you race baiting?
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2009 at 8:56 am
I am saying that Abbott took federal money to investigate voter fraud, made a big deal about it, and ended up prosecuting some women who didn’t know it was a violation for them to not put their return addresses on the envelope for mail-in ballots. Is that race-baiting? I don’t think so. (There were other convictions, and I’m sure that manyn were justified, but these seemed particularly heartless.
Park City Pete says:
Kay is not resigning. Her campaign staff is going nuts with her inability to make a decision and they are constantly harping in public about it. There is no message and no plan other than to try and pop Perry everyday. Branch knows she is not resigning and now the Branch supporters know Kay cares only about one person in politics and that is herself. Funny that it took so long for her close friends to find out that Kay does not care about them or the party and cares only about hersel
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Anonymous Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 8:41 am
You mean Kay suffers from the same disease as Perry!? What a shock!
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Anonymous says:
Burka, exactly why would attorney-client memos not be protected by the attorney_client privelege?
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2009 at 8:58 am
It depends upon what they said. This is not a blanket privilege.
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texmex says:
Muster76,
No real campaign experience that involves real work and making decisions that affect the outcome.
If you’ve dealt with them in the last year, you’d see why. A couple of twenty-year-olds shouldn’t be left to their own devices in a major campaign like that. They’ll end up turning off more people than gaining support. And this isn’t a swipe at them, they just need more supervision, like most in their twenties.
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2009 at 8:59 am
Please don’t use the comments privilege to carry out a private agenda against people you don’t like.
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Texian Politico says:
That’s just slanderous garbage. Do you have any proof for a statement like that? The comments on this blog are getting worse and worse every day.
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paulburka Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 9:16 am
I have removed a comment from a reader that was, as Texas politico accurately described it, slanderous garbage. I remind readers that the rules of the blog prohibit improper gratuitous comments about public servants.
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twocents says:
A lot of the media this week have pointed out that Cruz is the frontrunner in the AG race. That seems right to me. I think TX would be hard pressed to find anyone more qualified with a more compelling personal story. my two cents.
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paulburka says:
I agree that he is very qualified. The question is whether he would follow in Abbott’s shoes of being a political AG. One example: Abbott blessed the division of Laredo in congressional redistricting, which was clearly unconstitutional as a regression of minority voting strength. He told Dewhurst what Dewhurst wanted to hear. And the Supreme Court struck it down, and the Fifth Circuit poured Abbott and Cruz out in about one minute.
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A whole dollar says:
Individuals who know Ted Cruz personally know he is not qualified to be AG. Character trumps resume.
I encourage the “lots of media” out there to get to know him. He’s an easy target. He loves his name in print so much he’ll talk with anyone. Reminds me of President Obama.
Texas can do much better. Character AND resume trump Cruz.
That’s my one-hundred cents.
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Anonymous says:
Paul,
What are you referencing when you mention the nursing home voting thing?
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paulburka Reply:
November 1st, 2009 at 9:02 am
Abbott’s office put out a release trumpeting his convictions for voter fraud. This was around the time of the Voter ID fight. That’s about the extent of what I recall.
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Anonymous says:
At the risk of bring called insensitive because of timing, what is the likely effect of John O’Quinn’s untimely death on funding for TTLA and Democratic candidates generally? Any word on whether there might be a Texas Democratic Trust type of bequest?
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Anonymous says:
Cruz wants to be President and thinks he is ready for it now. He makes Obama’s ego look small. Talk about politicizing the AG’s office. If he is elected you ain’t seem nothin yet.
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Anonymous says:
What happen to the comment about Cruz being a womanizer?
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Anonymous says:
It was removed, because it slanderous garbage and was probably posted by someone (re-tread or has-been two bit trial lawer) with a personal vendetta against Ted Cruz.
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A whole dollar says:
A personal vendetta? Someone doesn’t like Ted Cruz?? Perhaps a woman he has “ized’???
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Brisoce Democrat says:
Kay is HORRIBLE and once she loses to Perry in the primary, look for her NOT to be invited to any TX GOP events ever again and exiled to Dallas to live out her days.
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John David Crow says:
Paul,
Businessmen and women make decisions all the time that are not pure legal decisions but they need legal advice to make them. That doesn’t mean their decisions are legal but they get privelegded legal advice that factors into their decision. Its no different with clemency. While the decision may be a political one, the advice the governor receives from his or her attorneys is still legal and should be protected.
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Buck says:
Some of these comments make it sound as if all the R’s can just wait till 2014.
2010 is the last safe year for the R’s before the D’s come back. If some of these guys don’t win this year — they won’t win.
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paulburka says:
Let’s get through 2010 before we start talking about 2014. This is a midterm election for a president who is unpopular in Texas. If the Democrats cannot field a credible candidate for governor, they are going to lose seats in the Legislature and find themselves unable to block the Republican agenda.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:25 am
Naah. It’s good to look ahead. But I agree that Dems are likely to lose seats this time around…and it appears they think putting their names and money on the line in statewides is political suicide, in part because of Obama’s unpopularity (not something new; he got clobbered in Texas after all). That’s particularly unfortunate given that redistricting is coming, and with the R’s totally in control, they’ll be able to re-trench and make it more difficult and a longer time before the D’s can make a full come back. 2014 is probably the absolute earliest.
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