UT/Texas Tribune Poll: Perry +12; Medina at 7%
Perry’s lead is 42-30. The UT/Tribune poll surveyed 800 registered voters between October 20 and October 27, of whom 45% said that they “definitely” or “probably” would vote in the Republican primary. The Democratic number for the same question was 30%. This seems on the mark to me. You’ll have to take my word for it, but if this had been roulette, I would have put my chips on 12. Keep in mind, however, that this is a small sample, 359 self-described GOP primary voters taken from a medium sample, with a MOE greater than 5%. The raw numbers, according to the Texas Poll’s Jim Henson, whom I interviewed, were 146 for Perry, 107 for Hutchison, 25 for Medina, and the rest were the catch-alls of don’t knows and not sures. The larger sample of 800 was used for R vs. D questions.
The results underscore how abysmal Hutchison’s campaign has been. Her handling of her resignation, or non-resignation, from the Senate has made her look weak and indecisive. She comes across as lacking self-confidence. And lacking ideas. To make matters worse, she is down by 12 after a six-week stretch during which Perry was hammered by the media, a time during which she had a chance to gain ground. She continues to pursue a strategy of single-shot criticisms of Perry without giving any definition to her own candidacy. She is now at the same level in the polls that Perry was at the beginning of the race. The problem here is not the campaign. It’s the candidate.
Perry’s numbers aren’t great. The number that stands out is his -8 job approval versus Hutchison’s +12 after he has spent a year hammering her on being the candidate of Washington since the April round of tea parties. But these numbers reflect the larger sample of 800, not just Republican primary voters. So his negative job approval rating includes the opinions of Democrats as well as non-primary voting Republicans. The same is true of his 1 point lead over a generic Democrat. He might have trouble in a general election against a strong Democrat, but (1) no such person exists and (2) Texas is so hostile to Obama that I think the general election climate will heavily favor the Rs. The D’s had four years to get ready for this election, and they are going to blow it totally.
Can Hutchison recover from this latest slump? Well, sure, she can. But I have seen nothing to indicate that she will. She has not exhibited the self-confidence and the coolness under fire to make good decisions.
Here are the results of specific questions:
Job Approval
Obama 41% approve, 52% disapprove
Perry 36% approve, 44% disapprove
Hutchison 39% approve, 27% disapprove
Congress 14% approve, 71% disapprove
Texas Legislature 31% approve, 36% disapprove
She ought to be able to make something out of that differential, but she hasn’t.
Other Races
Lieutenant Governor
Dewhurst 26%
Abbott 16%
(Doesn’t augur well for Abbott mounting a primary challenge to Dewhurst)
Generic Congress
Republican 42%
Democrat 33%
Generic Legislature
Republican 39%
Democratic 33%
Democratic Governor
(I suppose I have to report this, as if it had some meaning)
Kinky 19%
Schieffer 10%
“Don’t Know” 55%
Governor (General Election)
Perry 34%
Generic Democrat 33%
Hutchison 36%%
Generic Democrat 25%
Matched specifically against Tom Schieffer:
Perry 36%
Schieffer 25%
Hutchison 40%
Schieffer 20%
United States Senate
(Imaginary)
Bill White 13%
John Sharp 13%
No Republican polls higher than 3% (Shapiro and Michael Williams)
Partisanship of sample
Democrat 32% (Strong Democrat 20%)
Republican 32% (Strong Republican 20%)
Independent 31%
This seems too favorable to Democrats given the unpopularity of Obama and the general turmoil in the country. I would guess that Republicans have an edge in the 3-4 points range, especially considering earlier findings by this poll that independents in Texas tend to tilt Republican.
I want to say a couple of things about the UT/Tribune poll. The first is that we are lucky to have it. Polls cost money, and without this poll, we would have to rely on the hard-pressed daily newspapers to know where the race stands, or Rasmussen’s occasional reports on the governor’s race. The second is that I continue to be skeptical about the poll’s methodology.
The gold standard for polling primary elections is to acquire the list of people who actually voted in a party primary in previous elections and limit the sample to these names. In this way you have a “pure” sample of likely primary voters. Anything short of this, such as asking voters whether they intend to vote in a primary election, is of questionable value.
Here is the UT Poll’s explanation of its methodology, unfiltered:
The October 2009 Texas Statewide Study was designed by researchers in the UT-Austin Department of Government and conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix, a firm with demonstrated success in internet polling. YouGov/Polimetrix accomplishes internet polling through a unique sampling procedure known as “matched random sampling.” The firm begins with two lists: (1) a list of all adult “consumers” in Texas (covering approximately 95 percent of the adult population), and (2) a list of people who have agreed to take YouGov/Polimetrix’s surveys. For each list, Polimetrix has an extensive set of demographics. The sampling procedure then progresses in two stages. First, a random sample of consumers is drawn. For each person drawn from this sample a list of key demographics is recorded. In essence, each individual drawn is represented as a cluster of demographic characteristics, including age, income, education, race, gender, longitude and latitude, etc. Second, YouGov/Polimetrix uses a matching algorithm to find the PollingPoint panelist who is the closest match to the person drawn off the consumer file. In this way an entire “matched” random sample is constructed for all people in the “drawn” sample.
Consider the all-adults file to be List A, and the volunteer sample to be List B. (I’m signed up for List B.) The firm chooses a random sample of 800 names from List A, tries to find the best demographic matches from List B, and contacts the people from List B via the Internet. I will tell you up front that I do not know enough about statistics to know whether this method is reliable or not. I do know enough to know that this methodology is not truly random, because everybody who signed up has manifested enough interest in politics to want to be surveyed.
This brings us to the second question the UT pollsters ask of the poll’s participants (after ascertaining whether the participant is registered to vote): Would you say that you are extremely interested in politics and public affairs, somewhat interested, not very interested, or not at all interested?
Here were the results:
54% Extremely interested
36% Somewhat interested
7% Not very interested
2% Not at all interested
0% Don’t know
So you have a sample of 800 people, 90% of whom are somewhat to extremely interested in politics. Short of collecting names in the vestibule of the Austin Club during fundraising season, you can’t find a random collection of 800 people, 90% of whom are pretty interested in politics. That’s my problem with the UT Poll. Internet polling is probably the future of polling, and the UT/Tribune poll is our best hope for a regular flow of campaign information, so I’m going to have to get used to it. But my confidence level is not very high.
Tagged: UT/texas tribune poll.
Anonymous says:
I’ll bet there’s at least a 3% margin of error, meaning Guv39% is right at his cap. Let’s trade.
Reply »
Pauls other inbox says:
Paul, Kay’s problem is with republicans, which is why she has a positive rating (amongst all voters) but does lousy at on the primary ballot. The toxic DC area code she has is the very thing that has undone her coronation. She will pull a Dede and not resign, not file and not run for Gov in 2010. That’s my prediction. She will get swamped in March and to avoid an embarrassment she will bow out to fight the evil one in DC.
Reply »
Jamie says:
I don’t see a path to victory for Kay Bailey Hutchison. This had to be the worst several weeks Rick Perry may have ever had in the press, and he is still up by 12? Hit the showers, KBH.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:21 am
If KBH and her political advisors actually decide to campaign, that press will provide much fodder to an as-yet unaware and disinterested populace.
Reply »
Anon says:
So did the job approval numbers come from just those respondents who intend to vote in the R primnary? It looks like they came from the entire polled sample (Rs and Ds and Is).
If Perry’s job disapproval is 44% among the Texas voting electorate now, he’s beatable in the general. The economic job losses will rise, business taxes will rise, and the Dem campaign against him will rise. Perry’s numbers will only get worse.
Clearly, Kay is the R’s best chance to win in Nov 2010. Not even Perry can dispute that.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:26 am
There’s a Democrat running?
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:02 pm
The job approval numbers come from the larger sample, not GOP primary voters. I have changed the post to reflect this.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Looks to me like Bill White v Rick Perry would be a highly competitive election.
Reply »
Emeyekaye says:
What I don’t understand is the Cheney link to KBH… or I understand it but I just don’t get it.
Perry panders to the tea party people (or maybe he rents their support from Dan Patrick?)…
Kay plays with Dick, causing moderate Republicans to avert their eyes… but there is simply no viable candidate to look to…
This election is causing me to drift towards ellipses…
…
Reply »
Gandalf the Grey Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Dan Patrick is the Dems’ best player. The more closely Perry aligns himself with right-wing talk radio, the more likely a Dem beats him for the governorship. Hate and vitriol don’t go over well with mainstream voters, R or D.
Reply »
Jamie says:
KBH and her advisers have been campaigning plenty. I get their numerous emails. I see their videos. I read their white papers. I’ve been to slickrickperry.com. I’ve gotten their invites to fundraising lunches. They are actively campaigning. They even send out web polls to their email list, for goodness’ sake. If anything, they need to chill out a little bit on the anti-Perry jazz.
Weeks of wall-to-wall coverage of “Perry covering up execution of innocent man” on television and front pages of newspapers is as bad if not worse than any commercials KBH will run.
Remember the boomerang effect with negative ads. When KBH goes negative, her negatives will also go up and her positives will go down. She will probably depress turnout (and alienate moderates and independents) with her negative ads, too.
Reply »
needs more objectivity says:
Perry is turning UT into a republican ant hill. With all the layoffs that look more like political purgings it’s hard to say this poll is objective. If UT system was less of a republican administration I would say this “poll” MIGHT be Ok… And a majority of the people responding are 44-64. This is just looking at one age demographic. HOW they select respondents is the issue. There’s infinite number of demographics to choose from.
Reply »
Sam says:
60% of registered voters voted in the 2008 general election. Only 9% voted in the 2006 primary. This poll has 75% voting in the 2010 primary. Perry may have a 12% lead, but it would just be a coincidence that this poll has that margin. The poll might be reasonably accurate for the general election questions, but for the primary, the sample doesn’t match the target population. GIGO.
Reply »
buck says:
But look deep in the poll at Perry’s negatives –
The difference in his plus-minus “strong approval-disapproval” rating is much worse than hers.
She has a much better chance to win a runoff.
And if Medina hangs at 7% — that number is growing — then this race will go to a runoff.
Reply »
Tim says:
I’m frightened of Kinky. If he has smart enough campaign staff he could easily pull off large numbers of tea party voters (since he’s definitely more libertarian than liberal). His platform has basically been the tea party platform, just with a different party. I’m hoping his staff are not smart enough to do that.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Sounds to me like Bill White is the next Governor.
Reply »
Anon says:
The Legislature will be conservative and Republican in 2011 regardless of who’s Governor.
I’d vote for Bill White over Perry.
I’d vote for Kay over Bill White.
The 2011 Session will be all about budget cuts and redistricting. The Legislature, not the Governor, will determine these.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Perry will be neck deep in redistricting, don’t kid yourself.
Reply »
Buck says:
Do you think the poll respondents got Hank Gilbert confused with Hank Hill?
I know I do.
Reply »
Charles Kuffner says:
“Texas is so hostile to Obama that I think the general election climate will heavily favor the Rs”
Let’s see – the poll has Obama’s approval rating at 41/52. Last November, the voters went 43.68/55.45 against him. How is this anything but a pretty decent recapitulation of the election result, which you may recall was a considerable improvement for Dems over 2004? If his approval rating had been something like 31/62, I’d agree with your assessment. This looks like business as usual to me.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:17 pm
You make a good point. I still think that the hardening of the GOP right spells big trouble for Texas Democrats in 2010. The unfortunate evolution of the GOP in Texas is not business as usual.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:58 pm
I’m with Charles. The radical right elements of the Texas GOP are just louder and more easily mobilized. But they’re not gaining in power overall. The Dems still aren’t competitive statewide, and a real Dem won’t be for a long time.
Reply »
Kenneth D. Franks says:
Ms. Hutchison may not resign and there are candidates waiting till the filling period and maybe even the end of it to decide what race they will file for on both sides. It would make for an interesting Winter if she did. The declared Democratic candidate Hank Gilbert is traveling the state already.
Tom Schieffer was making the rounds before Summer.
Bill White is organized, campaigning, and would really rather run for Hutchison’s seat as that is what he is currently working toward.
If she did resign there would be a flurry of fillings on the Republican and Democratic side although I don’t see her doing it.
Kinky, hopefully will not get enough votes to affect the Democratic winner.
However, I like our open primary system where independents or any registered voter can vote in the primary of their choice.
Reply »
Bream says:
Dan Patrick is a big turnoff. I’m a loyal conservative, but I disagree with his tactics.
It’s not fair to the voters to have
Reply »
Bream says:
Dan Patrick is a big turnoff. I’m a loyal conservative, but I disagree with his tactics.
It’s not fair to the voters to have 1 guy use his microphone to tell voters what to think about politicans while he himself is a politican.
He is what’s wrong with the system.
Reply »
Meanless Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:45 pm
I agree with many of Dan Patrick’s views on issues. I disagree with how he treats people and with how he oftentimes doesn’t practice what he preaches. Some of the candidates he aligns himself with are not merely bad, they’re embarrassing.
Reply »
Nachtwarheight says:
Is it just me or does anyone else wish we had an entirely different crop of folks to consider? The governor’s race, on both sides, seems like choosing the method of your own suicide.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Yes, there are lots of us who would like to have a different crop of folks to consider. Unfortunately, we still are significantly outnumbered in the Lone Star State. The current crop is the product of the myopic, bigoted country club cowboys that make up the majority of the Texas electorate.
Reply »
Cow Droppings Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:40 pm
then get off your ass and run instead of complaining from the cheap seats.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:46 pm
No thanks. That’s twice you’ve said something to me about running, but Texas isn’t ready for me yet. Thank goodness the country as a whole moved past Texas (in more ways than one), finally. Your buddy Rick Perry can kiss his national hopes good-bye thanks to his predecessor’s fine showing.
Reply »
anony says:
Sigh, is it March yet?
Reply »
Brisoce Democrat says:
Burka, I heard the Tea Party folks who drove the liberal Republican out of the NY-23 contest are going after KBH in the TX governor’s race down here.
With the Palin, Beck,Limbaugh folks backing Perry, it looks like he’s BACK for a 3rd full term in the Texas Governor’s Mansion for the term conveying January 18, 2011 to January 20, 2015.
On the off-year gubernatorial elections tonight here are my predictions:
Virignia: likely GOP win with former VA State Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) with 65 percent.
New Jersey: incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D) squeaks by reelection over Chris Christie (R) in wild finish due to African American and Latino turnout.
Reply »
Kay the weak says:
It’s been most taxing to watch how the Kay campaign has handled this election. They’ve gone from bad to worse, from mistake to breakdown, from being heavily favored to a heavy underdog. Who’s to blame? You gotta blame Kay, she’s never taken the helm to drive her campaign and has been content waiting for Perry to make mistakes. Also she just seems god awful lazy. It’s like she doesn’t even care whether or not she wins this thing. She has no passion, or maybe she’s just too old. When it’s all said and done she just doesn’t have what it takes to be an efficient leader.
Reply »
telling says:
this is a telling example of her campaign’s turmoil: instead of simply issuing responses for endorsements and this poll today–and proceeding with actual campaign work–the Hutchison campaign spent the day calling press to try and debunk this poll and calling doctors to try and debunk a TMA endorsment…it’s damage control instead of campaigning
Reply »
paulburka says:
That’s because there is so much damage to control.
Reply »
linda says:
Perry is scary.
Kay is boring.
Kinky is self-serving.
Run, Bill, Run.
Reply »
Austin Homeboy says:
Paul, you should have been around some of the fundraisers tonight in Austin. GOP reps, lobbyists and capitol staff are running so fast from “Team Kay” it was funny. All in agreement that SHE and HER team have run the WORST quasi-campaign in memory…that she is down 12 and that this race that never was never will be. They doubt she will even file. The consensus was everyone should work with Perry since he will actually be stronger on budget and redistricting issues than she would have ever been and that they knew that all along. TOO FUNNY. Some said that Kay’s paid staff are even looking for other work thinking she won’t make the race. Looks like Kay and Ray will have to, again, wait for another day…
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Today was an awful day for KBH. The latest poll shows her down by 12. Harry Reid announces the health care reform debate will slip to next year. And the election results show a strong anti-Washington sentiment all around the country. Her Cheney endorsement has halted all her carefully planned “Democrats for Kay” efforts. The RGA has proven itself to be a powerhouse, and Perry is an integral part of that leadership structure.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Next week’s RGA meeting in Austin ought to be very interesting!
Reply »
goo says:
It isn’t March yet. Let’s not jump the gun and proclaim Rick the winner. There’s plenty of time left to hash over policy. To say Kay’s ship has sunk is a bit premature. And why can’t a candidate appeal to conservatives and moderates at the same time? Rick isn’t THAT popular – if this is an “Anything but Rick Perry” race, I think Kay actually stands a very good chance.
Reply »
Anonymous says:
WARNING: Perry Blog Management Team has arrived post-Monday Happy Hour. You guys didn’t stay out very late?!!
Reply »
Anonymous says:
Woops. It was post-Tuesday Happy Hour. My Monday Happy Hour lasted so long I missed an entire day. ;<)
Reply »
Pauls other inbox says:
Who thinks Hutchison will resign from the senate?
and who thinks Kay will file for Gov.?
and who thinks Kay will get more voters to the polls during the republican primary then Perry?
Reply »
Brisoce Democrat Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Paul, the Democrats and Indys are NOT going to vote for KBH in the primary now that Cheney has backed here.
My prediction still stands: Perry wins reelection and is back in the Governor’s Mansion for his 3rd full term starting January 18, 2011-January 20, 2015.
Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour (R), who is the chairman of the Republican Governors Association are backing Perry.
Reply »
TX Accountant says:
Word in the hinterlands: Kay Bailey Hutchison will be lucky to lose by 12.
Reply »