National election results: Are independents really Republicans?
CNN’s exit polls say that independents were the deciding factor in the two big governor’s races, in New Jersey and Virginia. From the network’s web site:
In Virginia, where 30 percent of voters identify themselves as independent, 65 percent cast their ballots for CNN’s projected winner, Republican Bob McDonnell. That’s according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Democrat Creigh Deeds earned the votes of 34 percent of independents.
In New Jersey, the projected winner, Republican Chris Christie, took 60 percent of the independent vote while incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, a Democrat, got only 30 percent.
So who are these independents? I don’t think they are really independents at all. They are what Mike Baselice, the governor’s pollster, likes to call “grumpy Republicans,” people who no longer identify with the Republican party, having become discontented at its march to the right. But, as the UT Poll’s Jim Henson pointed out at a forum I attended last December, they tend to vote Republican, by a margin of about 4 to 3. That is enough to make the difference in most elections. The Democrats have not been able to make much headway with independents in Texas, certainly not in statewide races, and it appears the same was true for the losing Democratic candidates yesterday. It is a mistake to think of grumpy Republicans as true independents. They will vote Democratic when disgusted enough with their former party–the election of Obama was one instance–but in general they retain vestiges of their former loyalties.
What are the implications of the governor’s races for 2010? Obama went to New Jersey five times to campaign for Corzine, to no avail. He comes out of the election with no coattails. Was the New Jersey governorship important enough to risk an election result that will be seen as a rejection of Obama? I don’t think so. On the one-year anniversary of his election, Obama looks pretty vulnerable. His legislative program is stuck, and the Republicans have him on the defensive. A lot can change in one year.
Tagged: jim henson, mike baselice.
Richard says:
Also in New Jersey exit polling: Obama’s favorability was 57 percent. Christie winning in New Jersey had nothing to do with Obama and everything to do with the fact that New Jersey really really really doesn’t like John Corzine. The only conclusion you can draw about Obama from that race is that he can’t bring the political dead back to life, and that’s not exactly breaking news.
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paulburka Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:44 am
But if you know they are dead, why try to bring them back to life. That was the White House’s mistake. They are supposed to protect him from situations in which he can be diminished politically.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:48 am
That’s what the Repubs were crowing about when it came down to whether he should support Chicago’s Olympic effort. Personally, I like that Obama is just real. I find that to be an admirable quality – fighting and working for something or someone you believe in even if, and perhaps especially when, the outcome is anything but assured.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
That’s not being “real”; it’s called “inexperience”; it’s called “bad judgement”; it’s called “a mistake”.
paulburka Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Anonymous at 11:48 can enjoy that Obama is real and that he has admirable qualities of fighting and working for something he believes in, but, personally, I think he’d be better off winning.
texun Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Media generally predicted that Corizine would do even worse than he actually did, so I suppose the White House could explain that difference by claiming that Obama’s campaigning made the difference. (Word from New Jersey was that Corizine’s dog had been digging up bones in the backyard, expecting to move.)
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Texian Politico Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Who predicted that Corzine would do worse? He was AHEAD in some polls.
texun Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
NYT and WP saw Corizine as lagging behind and a likely loser.
Proud Javelina says:
Paul – could it be that you’re reading the “grumpy republicans” wrong? That they’re not disgruntled with the party for being too far right, but rather for being too far left in their irresponsible spending under Bush? I believe this is more likely the case. Either way it crumbles, I think you’re right that independents are probably “grumpy republicans”.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:07 am
I am a “grumpy republican” and am most certainly dissatisfied with the way the far right has treated the more moderate members of the party. The “if you’re not with us, then you’re against us” mentality will be the downfall of the Republican party if they don’t get their act together. In the meantime, where am I supposed to take my socially liberal and fiscally conservative beliefs? The Republican party doesn’t support the former, and the Democratic party doesn’t support the latter, although it can be argued the modern Republican party doesn’t either. Maybe the Libertarian party will continue to pick up some steam and become a hybrid of these two parties.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:21 am
The Texas Democratic Party was made just for you!
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Texian Politico Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Yeah, the Libertarians. They are the answer. Wake me up when they break 2% in a presidential race and when Alex Jones is no longer a Libertarian.
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Alex Jones' Tin Hat Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Yes. God forbid a third party ever enter the scene. No independent thought allowed!
Fiftycal Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
I quit sending money to all the republican groups, committees, etc., not because they are “too far right”. I don’t think the RINO’s in the Northeast deserve a shot at my money. And whatever unconsious party boss that put up Sazzafava in NY doesn’t need my money. I don’t care about abortion or homosexual “rights” or which superstition people pretend to follow. And the theives and looters in the dimorat party will not get my vote or my money. Republicans need to reform the party. The U.S. is a 2 party country. We don’t need to become europe or Kanada with 45 “coalitions”.
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Anonymous says:
The fiscal mess is the fault of both Republicans and Democrats. Yesterday was more of a backlash against Obama, Pelosi, Frank and their highly misguided priorities. It’s the economy stupid.
The right wing of the GOP is the one glimmer of hope for the Ds. It helped the Ds win the New York congressional seat for the first time since the civil war. And it was a moderate R who beat Corzine. A right wing R would’ve lost that race.
But the right wing has an insatiable desire to improse their views on the GOP and the entire country. And this turns off moderate Rs, Independents, and keeps Ds in the game.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:07 am
You’re right. I’ve heard Mike Baselice say they’re “grumpy Republicans” because they’re upset with the drift of Republican officeholders to the left. Those votes want more conservative candidates to vote for.
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paulburka Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:47 am
That’s not what I heard. And it doesn’t make sense. There is no drift of Republican officeholders to the left. Kenny Marchant told me that the party in the U.S. House has been basically purified, no moderates left. The “drift to the left” was manufactured by Tom DeLay. He used earmarks to buy Republican votes.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Rather than paraphase him, why don’t you call him and ask him? Republicans were grumpy in 2008 because of profligate spending ($400 billion prescription drug benefit anyone?) And you make my point about the drift to the left. Republican officeholders were buying votes with out-of-control earmarks. Now, it’s well established that you think earmarks are fine and dandy, but Republican voters don’t. They think spending is out of control and were particularly upset that the Republicans they sent to Washington to act like Republicans ended up spending like Democrats.
Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Paul, you may be right that the GOP’s “drift to the left” was a myth manufactured by Tom DeLay and his progeny (Dick Armey, Dick Cheney, et al. — catch my KBH drift?)? But the GOP today is all about less government and lower spending…and they want to say the GOP is and has been what it has’t been for at least the last three Republican administrations. They still haven’t woken up to the reality of who they are and have been.
Bill Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Purified? The GOP has purified itself into a regional party. There are now two Republicans among New York’s 29 members of the U.S. House. The GOP has lost (excuse me, purified) more seats in NY than it picked up in the Texas redistricting. Dems outnumber Repubs in the House delegations from 35 states, including those well-known historically Dem strongholds of Arizona, Colorado and Indiana.
Pat says:
Obama’s legislative program is stuck? Dubious claim.
Also, something I think you’ve wrote before, is that Governor’s races tend to be a bit different than congressional or senate elections. Case in point: California and Vermont have Republican Governors (Jim Douglas and Ahnold) while Wyoming and Oklahoma have Democratic Governors (Dave Freudenthal and Brad Henry).
And Virginia is not a “blue state.” Its purple. The fact that the Democrats have been winning marquee races can largely be attributed to the *relative* quality of Democratic candidates.
As for Bob McDonnell, hooray! We need more Notre Dame alums in office.
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Anonymous says:
I believe you’re right that most independents are “grumpy Republicans” and that their votes for Obama were about how upset they were with GWB. And that’s where I think Proud Javelina is right – the disgruntled Republicans are upset about what they perceive to be GWB’s irresponsible fiscal policies (forgetting that their beloved Ronald Reagan was the grandfather of exactly that). [See John Johnson.] Some grumpy Republicans may be upset about the Party’s march to the right, but within the larger group of grumpy Republican-Indies, they are miniscule in comparison. Ergo, Rick Perry clobbers KBH.
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Old guy says:
About the only thing really going for the Republicans right now is that they are not Democrats. As someone who has spent all his life in Texas where the real election used to be the Democratic Primary–conservative vs. liberal, I can offer this observation–governing isn’t easy; massive changes encounter massive resistance; if your opponents offer massive changes, get set to reap the benefits.
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Anonymous says:
The election results say two things: (1) the country as a whole is still center-right notwithstanding election of Obama (which can be attributed in large part to grumpy Republican disgust); and (2) Republicans aren’t home-free if they don’t stop the tack to the right in areas that aren’t red-meat conservative (like NY-23).
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MonkeyMan says:
There’s not much from last night’s results to lead to broad generalizations about the ‘mood’ of the elctorate or the country. Off presidential year elections always produce lower turnouts, which benefit Rs, and the party in power in the White House and Congress traditionally take a hit in these cycles.
I did enjoy seeing the Perry/Palin/Beck purist effort in NY 23 produce a democratic victory. Thanks — keep it up!
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Rog says:
Perry is such a terrible Governor, any democrat could win. Except someone has to step up and do it.
Same for the republicans running against Obama.
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Anonymous says:
Demographic trends + the Far Right’s purging of the GOP = inevitable Democrat gains.
If the GOP were smart (and they’re not), they’d push to eliminate the Primary system. This is the only mechanism that gives them Far Right candidates. If there were no Primary, there would be far fewer Far Right candidates, and the Rs would actually field candidates who would fare much better in general elections.
Demographic trends (ie, losing elections) will eventually force the Rs to abolish primaries. The old, Anglo, grumpy, good ol days vote gets you less and less at the ballot box with every passing day.
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Jamie says:
I have come and gone as a grumpy Republican. I get grumpy when GOP Congressmen and Congresswomen act like Democrats.
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Anonymous says:
“Republican voters . . . think spending is out of control and were particularly upset that the Republicans they sent to Washington to act like Republicans ended up spending like Democrats.” — Anon @ 11:52 a.m.
I recognize that’s the kool-aid your Republican candidates and office-holders have been passing out for decades, but you haven’t had a Republican administration that did anything but “spend like Democrats” since, maybe, Ford and Nixon.
Those who believe what you do need to do some research and find out the truth. You’ve been being played for years! And you still believe the lies even after Ronald Reagan!?
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MonkeyMan says:
“If the GOP were smart (and they’re not), they’d push to eliminate the Primary system.”
If the GOP were smart, they’d push for draconian Voter ID laws to keep the demographic tide from participating in elections. It’s socially acceptable to rant about fraud, as opposed to just coming out and saying only freeholders or such can vote.
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Texian Politico says:
Also, don’t forget that Obama failed to do anything to help the gay marriage issue in Maine or help the Democrat defeat Bloomberg in NYC. Both of those were close and he didn’t lift a finger.
Finally, the Democratic LtGov of CA got only 53% last night in a special congressional election for a district in NoCal where Obama got 65%. Something is happening and it doesn’t look good for Democrats next year.
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Harry Doghiney (D-TX) Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Keep a-wishin’ and a’hopin’ and perhaps your dreams will come true.
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Prince Royal says:
I think this is a bit of over-analysis. My read of the election is that Republicans that positioned themselves as pragmatic and rational won their elections yesterday. The district in NY serves as an example of the ideological cleansing that are not serving the GOP well.
Frankly, I think that people want their officials to work together, just like the NJ and VA governors promised to, and just like Obama promised to.
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Anonymous says:
Look, when an inexperienced state legislator is running the most powerful country in the world and morons like Reid, Pelosi, and Frank are running policy to combat the Great Recession, it should come as no surprise that a backlash is rising against that political party.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Let’s just be grateful that our president is no longer the former governor of a backwoods Banana Republic wannabe!
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Adrian Juarez says:
I think one thing that needs to be taken into consideration is the mediating effect of third parties…
Had Dagget had more time, money and the appearance of being a third party, say Green, instead of Independent, he would have sliced even more off of Christie’s votes.
I, myself, have become disgusted with the Democrats, I am now a Green, (who voted Socialist (Pason), in the election), Democrats need to STEAMROLL Republicans like they steamrolled Democrats during the Bush 43 years…Democrats AREN’T mean enough!!!
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WUSRPH says:
Anonymous (and others who find the big spending ways of the Bush and Reagan Administrations to be anti-Republican) need to understand that buying votes with earmarks or the prescription drug plan is more than consistent with the beliefs of those who have been running the “modern” GOP for several decades now. The Karl R’s and company all grew up reading Ayn Rand’s propaganda for selfishness and, unfortunately, for the country beloved it! To them people only do things because it serves their material self-interests–”never do anything for anyone for nothing”. Believing that, they were convinced that the way to build a “permanent Republican majority” was to buy the support of everyone they could. For some that was by giving them something of monetary value–earmarks, prescription drugs, etc. For others it was to make them believe their votes for the GOP would “buy” social policies they favored. I wonder if they ever stopped to think how much their “materialism” resembled the Marxist’s view of man’s nature?
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John Johnson says:
I think Burka’s piece is right on the mark. I should know, since I am one of them …the grumpy Republicans (although Burka used the term “old codger” to describe me a year or so ago).
I call myself an independent, but am really just an independent thinker with a conservative tilt.
I think, like George Will, that we should yank all ground troops out of Afhganistan, and I think that the abortion issue needs to be removed from political discussion. If my fellow Christians want to convert the thinking of an atheist or a pro-choice proponent, do it with kind words and civil debate anywhere and everywhere you want to …just leave it out of the house and senate chambers. This being said, don’t pay for abortions with taxpayer money.
I voted for and will continue to support Democrat Wendy Davis (the first Dem I ever voted for for major state or national office). She’s not crooked. She’s a straight shooter. She’s smart, hard working and committed. I’ll take this any day over some Republican who appears to be padding their pockets at taxpayer’s expense by selling votes. Since this appears to be rampant both here in Texas and in D.C., there probably is another Dem vote somewhere in my future.
I would love to cast a vote for a Dem governor, but they are all acting like quacks or pansies and following the old Dem party line. If one of them with a stout resume, that does not show a lifetime in poltical office, would just move a little closer to me in the middle…
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
“me in the middle…”
Self-awareness is often the most difficult thing to achieve.
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Anonymous says:
If Bill White would publicly take abortion and guns off the table (sort of like conservative Romney did when running for Gov of liberal Massachuetts), he’d beat Perry in the General.
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John Johnson says:
You’re right, if you are using the defintion of “middle” as an exact and neutral position. I take liberties and assign a middle left and a middle right … kinda like right center and left center in baseball. I am playing center field and hedging toward right center. Do you think I am totally disoriented?
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Anonymous Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
My take: You’re in rght field and willing to tack toward (but not all the way to) center for a fly ball (conservative Democrat) on occasion. You’re not all the way up against the right field wall like the Palin wing of the GOP, but your unwillingness even to be ok with a conservative Dem candidate bringing in a national Dem is too extreme to say you’re willing to go to the middle. If a conservative Dem can’t get your vote just because he has national Dem support, then it says to me you’re not really willing to let a Dem be a Dem.
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Brisoce Democrat says:
Burka, on New Jersey don’t worry because Chris Christie (R) will be a ONE TERM governor once people in the Garden State realize his campaign promises are next to zero and kick him out of Drumthwacket-the Executive Mansion in 2013 by either Newark Mayor Corey Booker (D) or US Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ), as both are likely plotting plans for statewide office.
In Virginia, it’s a PURPLE STATE and well this happens all the time since 1977 and only once when the GOP held onto the governorship back in 1973 when Nixon was President.
Deeds lost because of several factors:
1. Being a two-time loser, he’d previously lost to McDonnell in the 2005 race for VA State Attorney General’s race by 500 thousand votes.
2. Despite having a long track record in the House of Delegates and State Senate, Deeds couldn’t translate that into accomplishments or finding better alternatives to McDonnell’s campaign in the governor’s race.
3. Obama Backlash: this President is likely a ONE TERMER because there’s a 50-50 chance the GOP could take back either the Senate or House in the 2010 Midterm elections, where the Democratic Party is likely to get destroyed all over the country (expect for CA, HI, where Democrats are likely getting those governorships back).
4. 8 years of Democratic control after Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, Virginians just had ENOUGH and didn’t want to give the Democrats 12 years of keeping the Executive Mansion and also Deeds was the wrong guy they had nominated back in June when he defeated 2 well-qualified candidates in former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe (who had MONEY and name ID nationally and could have given McDonnell a run for his money had he been the Dem nominee) and former State House of Delegates Minority Whip Brian Moran (D-Alexandria), who is likely seeking statewide office again in 2013.
5. Deeds’ constant refusal to embrace the Obama coalition alienated a majority of African Americans, Latinos, Independents, and urban swing-voters, etc.,
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texun Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
“Obama Backlash: this President is likely a ONE TERMER because there’s a 50-50 chance the GOP could take back either the Senate or House in the 2010 Midterm elections, where the Democratic Party is likely to get destroyed all over the country (expect for CA, HI, where Democrats are likely getting those governorships back).”
Do you call many ball games in the second inning?
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Anon says:
Paul – grumpy republicans? probably. But “tisk tisk” for jumping to a conclusion as to cause.
Nevertheless, great question: who are these folks and why are they disaffected? What (if anything) is common to them that is peculiar to them?
Any takers to fund a poll or do some old fashion journalism?
Otherwise, we’re all just giving fodder to teachers looking for new examples of bad logic.
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Anonymous says:
It hasn’t gotten much comment, but I think you’re Texas glasses have colored your assessment of where Obama stands. He’s trying to govern a center-right country with a Dem caucus that doesn’t apply a purity test. I don’t believe the country as a whole will punish him for that — I tend to think that’s what they were looking for. The rightwing nut jobs who watch Fox not-News were never going to be satisfied and were going to scream to high heaven, which the mainstream media broadcasts. It presents a distorted picture of reality. There are lots of non-Obama related explanations for yesterday’s results.
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eyeswideopen Reply:
November 4th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Just saying that if you watch ratings info, it is not just “rightwing nut jobs” who tune into Fox.
If I’m not mistaken, their audience is made up of 30% Democrats and a larger percentage of Indie’s.
As far as “explanations” regarding losses that don’t bring Obama into play, you might have to go where the leftwing nut jobs hangout… and that is over on Olbermann’s and Matthew’s program …although Matthews was also ragging on the President as hard as anyone this evening. He thinks he doing everything but governing. NYC dates, golf, the Olympic bid, fundrasing. Open your eyes up and be objective, Annie. You’ve got a skewed vision of what’s going on.
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brooksbeast says:
Question: If John Sharp were to refocus and run for Governor, would he get elected?
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Anonymous says:
P.S. Paul, Obama won the only elections in which he has been on the ballot. Just because some of the candidates he supported lost does not translate to Obama lost. Any true leader is going to stick his neck out sometimes, and he’s not going to win everything. I’m sure he would prefer that, but that’s not the real world. Journalists and political pundits who think he shouldn’t support people who might lose are part of the problem in this country, not part of the solution.
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eyeswideopen says:
I don’t think he’s saying so much that Obama shouldn’t have done it, as much as he’s saying that the silver tongued devil did not have a positive affect on the outcome.
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Tim says:
I think we actually need something more akin to a green party. Move the more liberal wing of the Democratic party over there. And create a hybrid of moderate Republicans and Clinton Democrats in the Democratic party. Socially liberal and fiscally conservative.
I don’t see any future for the socially conservative wing of the Republican party, or the religiously anti-tax. They’re eating themselves, and I really can’t imagine how they can be tamed.
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