Can Bill White penetrate the Republican vote?
As mayor of Houston, White enjoyed considerable support — political and financial — from Republicans. But he occupied a nonpartisan office. Can he repeat that success in a partisan race against an incumbent Republican governor, and can he do it outside of Houston as well as inside?
The answer depends upon factors that are hard to measure at the moment: the degree of Perry fatigue among moderate Republicans and White’s ability to exploit fissures among Republicans in the business community. One such fissure involves the fuel used to generate electricity. Perry has gone out of his way to favor coal-fired power plants. In 2006 he issued an executive order for state regulators to fast-track the approval of new coal plants. (Fast-tracking essentially cut off the ability of opponents to challenge the permitting of new plants.)
A year later, 18 new coal plants were on the drawing boards. The biggest proponent of coal has been the utility giant TXU, which became Luminant following a $45 billion leveraged buyout.
White and Laura Miller, then mayor of Dallas, formed a coalition of cities and mayors opposed to the new power plants. Perry, in an op-ed piece in the Dallas Morning News, wrote that delays in building the plants would hurt the Texas economy and said that opponents wanted to return Texas to the era of the horse and buggy.
How does this battle (which ended with a reduction in the proposed number of new plants) potentially affect the governor’s race? For one thing, White has positioned himself to be the champion of clear air — a quality of life issue in the Republican suburbs — against Perry. But here’s the real opportunity: The economic opposition to Texas’s reliance on coal comes from the natural gas industry. Natural gas is a much cleaner fuel than coal. It is abundant in Texas. White has the opportunity to win the support of a major Texas industry with a lot of money and a lot of potential votes by arguing that Texas should shift its electricity production from coal to gas.
Tagged: bill white, coal plants, republicans, rick perry.
Jamie says:
Bill White is pretty liberal, in reality. I doubt he will get many Republican votes in a year when everyone is freaking out about Obama and reacting in the other direction.
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scooter Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Jamie, with all due respect, the terms “liberal” and “conservative” are quickly becoming obsolete in politics today since it is becoming more and more apparent to even the political novice that each party is made up of many different factions and splinters that vary on social and economic issues. The winning of elections is often won and lost in the “margins” – meaning not the die-hard party core, but those cross-over voters who classify themselves as “moderate” or independents. White may run as a Dem but despite being to the left of center socially, he is predominantly moderate on economic issues – right of center. This can be very enticing for some moderate Republicans and can easily tilt the scales in favor of White. Remember again that the general election is much different than the primary as well – candidates move to the center to pick up those voters necessary to win.
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paulburka Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
I think “liberal” had just about disappeared from the political lexicon, until Obama was responsible for its resurrection. Self-identified liberals account for around 20% of the political spectrum. “Conservative” has lost some of its meaning because conservatives are fighting over who is really a conservative (e.g., Perry and Hutchison).
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scooter Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
Paul, I think that the factions within the conservative party are more prevalent in Texas since most Dems MUST be fairly close to the median or they would not be elected or re-elected. However, this is not the case in other states. In Massachusetts for example, you have a long-standing Democratic controlled legislature but because of the zero sum reality of state politics, Dems must publicize their differences and differentiate themselves from their colleagues in order to provide for their districts, credit claim, and ensure their re-election. In terms of Obama, I believe “liberal” has been resurrected simply because it has become the rally cry of the party-out-of-power. But as you can clearly see based on health care, gay marriage, bailouts, Iraq – their are distinct factions within the national Democratic Party as well.
Anonymous says:
My family in Houston supported him early on – everybody liked him. After a few years the rose was off the bloom, and now, not so much. I think there will be plenty of fodder in his resume that will be used against him. Let the games begin!
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yet another anonymous Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
I want to hear more about how this bloom lost its rose.
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Sam says:
You say the coal battle ‘ended,’ but I’m not so sure. A judge blocked Perry’s fast-tracking the approval, TXU was sold and the buyers dropped eight of the plants. The remaining ten have grown to twelve and are ‘normal-tracking’ their way through the approval process. NG prices may have dropped, but the industry still has plenty of cash to buy some green astroturf and restart the battle.
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Suburban says:
White is actually supported by a lot of Republicans. If you remember the backlash against Tom Craddick and the Grusendorfs of the world, suburban housewives were tired of the extreme politics and wanted pragmatic leaders handling public education and other issues.
White is competent and pragmatic and defies a lot of labels. He will be called a liberal by wingnut conservatives, but that is to be expected.
The odds of Perry getting Dem votes are slim. Indys might go to KBH, but she won’t be in the November election, so they will go White. Then, you will have a group of republicans that will go with White because they are THAT tired of Perry.
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Anonymous says:
“Can Bill White penetrate the Republican vote?”
No.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
See suburban above. But good answer given that it’s the only word in your Republican lexicon.
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Anonymous says:
How about this issue: “Asked by a student what his stance on gay rights was, White replied that he was “honored” to be named “Person of the Year” by the Human Rights Campaign, a gay rights organization. …” That group claims “We are working closely with state leaders across the nation on marriage initiatives and will be fighting to secure equal protections for all LGBT families.” Texans have spoken on this issue.
OR this issue:
Members of Mayors Against Illegal Guns: Mayor Bill White, Houston, Texas. In Texas you can’t be against guns. Period. He will have to spend a lot of money defending himself on this issue.
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Peggy Venable says:
Under Mayor White’s leadership, Houston ran up huge operating deficits totaling approximately $1.5 billion for fiscal years 2004-2008.
Houston’s five-year operating deficit of $1.5 billion is monumental, even relative to other large cities.
The $1.5 billion operating deficits occurred even though the City’s revenues (program and general combined) increased a very generous 37.7% in fiscal years 2004-2008. The operating deficits occurred because operating expenditures increased an even greater 44.9% rate during that five-year period.
The 44.9% increase in operating expenditures is considerably above the combined 29.4% increase in population (10.3%, including the Katrina influx) and inflation (19.1% per the Houston SMSA CPI from June 2003-2008).
The City’s long-term debt has also greatly outstripped the growth in population and inflation, finally literally exploding beginning about 1996.
Houston is over $19 BILLION dollars in debt (principal plus interest).
Texans will want someone in the US Senate with a track record of sound fiscal policy. Clearly, Mayor White doesn’t meet that qualification.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Thanks for the stats, Peggy. We’re now talking about the governor’s race, not the U.S. Senate. You might want to get your head out of the books sometime.
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paulburka Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
I haven’t researched the “Houston is X billion dollars in debt” claim, but one of my colleagues has, and he says it ain’t so.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
What does your colleague say about this information: http://www.scribd.com/doc/21619848/Lemer-Farb-Roberts-assessment-of-City-of-Houston-Finances-22-October-2009
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Anonymous Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
That analysis, which was done by 3 retired accountants from prominent CPA firms, was debunked by a journalist? Really? Is this colleague of yours a CPA? A trained auditor? YOu know, someone qualified to analyze the City of Houston’s books, using recognized and accepted accounting practices?
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Anonymous Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
Read point 12 of the report. That should tell you everything about reliability of its conclusion.
anon Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
I don’t know the accuracy of the debt number either. But as someone who works for an organization attempting to do a pretty large deal with Houston, I can tell you that things there aren’t great financially. City staff has all but come out and said this.
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TexMod says:
Ron Kirk and John Sharp enjoyed Republican support as well; look where that got them…
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Anonymous says:
“One such fissure involves the fuel used to generate electricity.”
While White runs ads talking about coal Perry will be running ads about making Texas the wind energy capitol of the Nation. White might say that he has done a lot to make Houston an environmental clean city – the fact remains it is still one of the dirties cities in America.
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prestonsmithdem says:
The only way for Dems to win is to have a slate of strong candidates; with White for gov, Sharp for Senate they are well on their way
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napkins says:
hey peggy, the debate here seems to be on whites track for governor.
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Jim says:
I love it when you let Eileen write your headlines.
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white's other pair of pants says:
Paul, White may not win the primary first off. second he is anti gun, protaxes, and has embraced every obama program due to his running for the senate and the need to beat sharp. The business communtiy is lock solid for Perry and White in the past few years has become less pro business as his eyes wanders thowards DC.
He is the KBH of the democrats and will end up in the trash bin of txpolitics with her.
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Phillip Martin says:
What is the pool of people you are defining as the “Republican” vote, Paul? At times, you talk about dividing the TX electorate into thirds — Dems, Repubs, and Independents — and at times you talk about everyone who voted for McCain as Republicans…
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John Robert BEHRMAN says:
Bill White can get likely “independent”, meaning ordinarily Republican, voters. Neither he, nor the Democratic Party itself, however, can identify, inspire, mobilize, or maximize the latent Democratic majority in this state. Just empty rhetoric and racial patronage or tokenism will not work now any more than in 2002.
Statewide victory takes a technology the party does not have and no one campaign has the time or money to develop. And, it takes a sweep-type campaign, ballot discipline, and a coherent platform that, again, only a party can really come up with, not a collection of consultants, each running one ego-driven, self-financed campaign.
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prestonsmithdem Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
That may be the most damning, intelligent, and above all accurate indictment of the Texas Democratic party. And pithy too!
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paulburka Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
How can you indict a party that doesn’t exist?
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prestonsmithdem Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
touche!
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West Texas Ranchless Dude Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 11:26 am
Behrman,
As a persistently annoying gadfly member of the State Democratic Executive Committee, who apparently loves to hear himself talk but doesn’t contribute financially or help raise money in a way to realistically help make happen what you demand (all of which costs a lot of money, not just rhetoric), I wouldn’t expect you to have a clue about what it takes to build the Democratic Party infrastructure that is in fact being built in vibrant local party organizations that have been ramping up recently. There are many party activists that recognize that the Democratic Party can’t simply re-organize around individual candidates every election cycle, but needs a lasting infrastructure.
Burka,
You really need to get out of Austin more often and see what is going on in different parts of the state, particularly the suburban areas. The Democratic Party is alive and well, and I think the fact that the Texas House became so closely balanced in the last election is evidence of that. The Republican Party has been relegated to a regional party for the most part (population-wise at least), and as the largest Republican state left Texas is in some ways the last vestige of Republican power. Even here, though the purist mentality of the Tea Partiers and wing-nuts will hasten the Republicans’ decline by driving moderate voters into the welcome arms of moderate Democratic candidates, of which there are quite a few coming to the fore.
I would bet voters care more about the time they waste in traffic congestion, their electric and home insurance bills, and the quality of their air than they believe some ridiculous assertion by Rick Perry that Obama is trying to punish Texas (especially when the DNC just met in Austin in September, clearly showing to those paying attention that Texas matters to Obama).
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Cow Droppings Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
thanks for sharing your dreams. Now, back to the real world.
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John Johnson says:
There needs to be some gun laws, we need to tax to just maintain, and Big Business and Perry truly are joined at the hip. And how does this hurt Mr. White?
Is any attempt to keep automatic weapons out of the hands of screwballs being anti-gun? Is quietly transfering to the general fund designated monies meant to be utilized to upgrade state parks and facilities, or to help the down and out pay their electricity bills, a suitable alternative to rasing taxes? Does having the business community solidly behind you have to mean that we have the highest insurance and some of the highest utility rates in the country?
I will listen to Mr. White, learn more about him, and, hopefully, feel inclined to vote for him. I know that there will be no inclination to do so for King Perry or the woman with splinters in her butt who has shown that she is about as solid as light mist wrapped in rice paper.
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Dallasite says:
Mayor White has a great chance of getting the voters KBH could have snagged if she’d run a good campaign focused on state issues. Voters who are center right, liked Geo W. Bush at one time, like their neighborhood schools, and by golly have a certain fondness for clean air.
Sincere question: what city in Texas is in great financial shape?
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Burka, in a likely Perry vs. White general election matchup in 2010, you can bet Slick Rick will run vicious, mean-spirited negative attack ads against White’s 6 years as Houston Mayor from the sanctuary city comments on illegal immigrants living in the city to joining Bloomberg in the anti-gun organization, and horrible crime rate under embattled police chief Harold Hurtt, who is likely on his way out no matter who wins the mayoralty, etc.,
White will counter that 20 years of GOP dominance is TOO DAMN LONG and with one of those campaign one-liners, “It would be for a Democrat to bring balance to the Republican Machine in Austin once and awhile.”
White will also need to follow the model of MARK WARNER, who managed to successfully reaching out to moderate Republicans, Independents, swing voters and the like in his 2 statewide victories as Governor in 2001 and a landslide win for United States Senator last year.
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paulburka says:
Sure, Perry will run negative attack ads on Bill White. But Perry has a record of his own, and it is going to be a big fat target for a Democrat to attack. White’s problem is not going to be Perry attack ads. It is that he has never had to deal with how big and diverse Texas is. Perry has had twenty years to build an organization. White has one year. It is going to take some time to get his land legs.
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Peggy Venable says:
Paul, maybe one of your colleagues knows more than the Texas Bond Review Board. I’d want them to provide you with the research. And please provide it to me while you are at it. According to the TBRB data Houston is deep in debt:
Principal – $10,434,394,111
Interest – $8,569,070,859
Total Payment – $19,003,464,970
Whether White is running for US Senate or Governor, this isn’t the track record we need in either office!
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Peggy Venable says:
Dallasite,
According to the CPA’s at Citizens for Public Accountability, Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles are all doing much better financially than Houston.
While Houston is $1.5 billion in the red, even Los Angeles is $3.2 billion in the black.
It would be tough to put lipstick on Houston’s economic picture.
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Brown Bess says:
White will receive a large share of the shrinking Sane branch of the Republican Party headquartered in the state’s urban/suburban areas. These people do care about whether the air they breathe will make them sick or dead and White’s history of being a clean air advocate will resonate with them. These same people are also motivated to see Perry and the Teabaggers fail. How many of them are left is a good question.
In the last 24 hours you’ve seen Dems get a shot in the arm and become more motivated. Additional good decisions down the ticket could add to that.
An Austincentric perspective is skewing views of the dire state of the Dem Party itself. At the grassroots level, there is a difference in several magnitudes from the beginning or even middle of the decade.
Go to Southlake and Grapevine – heart of red Tarrant County – and see a standing-room only thriving Dem. network meet every month. Attend events at the beehive-like Dallas Progressive Center – a physical space, mailing list, and staff that didn’t exist a year ago. Things like this add up.
But it’s perfectly OK for Republicans to keep underestimating what’s going on.
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Anonymous says:
Republicans love the “progressives” getting involved in the local Democrat party in “red areas” of Texas. They confirm to old time Democrats what Republicans have been telling them for a long time– the Democratic party has left your Texas values. They bring their litmus tests on abortion, soft on crime, gun control and gay rights. That is why you are seeing party switchers and historic Democratic counties turning Republican.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 8:32 am
How’s that lava lamp and black light poster, anon @ 6:15 p.m. We’ve already lived through the era you’re talking about.
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paulburka Reply:
November 26th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Democratic litmus tests on abortion? Wrong party. Democrats have diverse opinions on abortion, especially when you consider the large representation of Hispanics in the party.
This post reflects the rural, social conservative view of the world. The Republicans have won the battle for rural Texas, no question about that. But that’s not where the votes are.
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asmith says:
Anon 6:15 not to be too calculating but Dems will gladly trade dying rural counties for votes in the vibrant suburban areas that are high growth.
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paulburka Reply:
November 26th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Exactly. How many rural counties does it take to make up for Dallas County?
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napkins says:
“Whether White is running for US Senate or Governor, this isn’t the track record we need in either office!”
and rick perry is EXACTLY what we need right?
please.
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Texas Publius says:
Bill White is a shrewd, highly competent man. If he runs for an office, it’s only because the data tells him victory is within reach. If the data suggested otherwise, he wouldn’t be running.
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paulburka says:
I’d rather know what his gut tells him. That has a lot more to do with winning and losing.
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sam says:
Keep Texas Great. Keep Gov Rick Perry.
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