Ciro Rodriguez faces two GOP challengers
I met yesterday with William Hurd, who plans to seek the Republican nomination for Congressional District 23, a sprawling district that runs from San Antonio to El Paso, between Interstate 10 and the Rio Grande. I first met Hurd ten years ago, when he was student body president at Texas A&M, and I was writing a story about the bonfire tragedy. He was then, and is now, a very impressive person. He spent the intervening nine years with the Central Intelligence Agency as a case officer in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The district has an interesting history. At the time of the the mid-census redistricting in 2003, it was represented by Henry Bonilla, a Republican. To make the seat a safe Republican district, GOP lawmakers divided Webb County, which votes overwhelmingly Democratic, removing around 100,000 voters from the district. In the spring of 2006, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the division as a dilution of minority voting strength. It was the only district of the 32 congressional districts in Texas whose boundaries did not withstand constitutional scrutiny. Attorney General Abbott tried to defend the division before a three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit that was assigned to fix the infirmity but was quickly poured out. The panel approved new boundary lines that did not contain Webb County in time for the 06 elections. A special election took place on election day of 06. Bonilla won 48.4% of the vote, leaving him a handful of votes shy of a majority. Ciro Rodriguez, a former congressman who had previously lost his seat to in a primary to Henry Cuellar, was the second-place finisher. despite receiving some 36,000 fewer votes than Bonilla (less than 20% of the vote). But that was enough to get into a runoff. The Republicans suffered a devastating national rout on election day, and when the runoff occurred, GOP voters, sick of scandals and party infighting and the Bush presidency, had little motivation to vote. Rodriguez is no great shakes as a campaigner, and eventually the national Democratic party had to take over the race. They brought Bill Clinton into San Antonio to stir up the base, and Rodriguez won.
Republicans regard District 23 as a winnable seat, and in 2008 two Republicans, businessman Quico Canseco and county commissioner Lyle Larson, vied for the Republican nomination, with Larson winning by 18,000 to 11,000. Larson was regarded as a strong candidate, but Rodriguez won handily with 55% of the vote, undoubtedly helped by Obama’s presence at the top of the ticket.
Earlier this week, Larson announced that he would not make a second try for the GOP nomination, leaving Canseco and Hurd (and perhaps others) to battle for the right to be the GOP standardbearer. Canseco will have a lot more money to spend than Hurd, but he has already lost one primary race, and Hurd is a fresh face. In a small GOP primary (typically 30,000 votes), Hurd doesn’t need to raise a truckload of money to raise his name identification.
The general election sets up well for the winner. 2010 is a different year from 2006 and 2008. Republicans are likely to be more motivated than Democrats, and there will not be an Obama bounce for Democratic candidates. I think Rodriguez is going to be in for a tough race.
Tagged: CD-23, ciro rodriguez, william hurd
credit says:
Paul, I very, very rarely agree with your assertions of state house races, but I think you’ve hit the nail on the head with this one.
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paulburka Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
This is a congressional race, not a state House race.
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credit says:
not that this is a state house race, but that’s all I’ve seen you take a stab at..
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cyrus says:
wait, I thought Obama was a drag on Democrats representing rural areas?
Will you make up your mind on this one?
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Anonymous Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:54 am
When Paul talks about rural areas he’s usually refering to east Texas. Southwest Texas is a lot more hispanic than east Texas and has a tendency to vote Democratic.
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paulburka Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 11:57 am
There aren’t a lot of votes west of San Antonio. The only population centers are Uvalde, Eagle Pass, and Del Rio. The rest of the counties have small populations. Anglo ranchers and Hispanics make up the majority of the population. Eagle Pass is Democratic and Hispanic, Uvalde is just under 2/3 Hispanic, Val Verde County (Del Rio) is 19% white. It doesn’t matter how many Hispanics live in District 23, because those in the rural areas do not vote.
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prestonsmithdem says:
Is he any relation to the Hurd Oil family in San Antonio?
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Alden says:
I had the pleasure of working with Will during my time at A&M. You will not find a better candidate, period.
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DJK says:
For more information on Mr. Hurd, visit http://texansforhurd.com
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ajbayli says:
William Hurd is a class act and a well qualified candidate. Texans would be well represented to vote William into office.
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asmith says:
I’d say this race leans Ciro for now. I mean Lyle Larson who has a large political base in NW San Antonio couldn’t beat Ciro.
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paulburka says:
As I wrote, what happened in 2008 is not a sound basis for predicting what will happen in 2010. You have to assume that 2010 will be a Republican year.
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Phillip Martin Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Why?
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CiroFan says:
Well I guess this Del Rioan needs to get off her duff and start campaigning for Ciro.
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Rog says:
I’m sure Mr. Hurd is a fine young man, but if he is seeking election based on spending nine years in Afghanistan, that might be a hard sell.
If he’s seeking election because he is against Obama, then he doesn’t have much to offer.
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Texian Politico Reply:
December 4th, 2009 at 7:47 am
I disagree. Anyone that has served in the military or the CIA in a combat zone has learned things about themselves and the world that few people could ever dream of. His service will be an advantage to his campaign. Besides, he’s not running in liberal Travis County where military service is viewed as an evil thing to do.
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Robert says:
“Ciro Rodriguez faces two GOP challengers” No he doesn’t, only one will win the Primary to face Ciro (if he wins his nomination. You opinion is opinion and fact is fact, a bit more precision please.
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paulburka Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 2:55 pm
He has two challengers. Just because only one can win does not change the fact that he has two challengers. A bit more precision please.
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Bill says:
I’m a Democrat who wants Rodriguez to win. As my friends here at the oil company said so many times last year, I am sure Mr. Hurd is a fine young man, but lacking experience. It’s kind of scary to think that a congressional candidate is running on his record as president of any student body. (It’s on his Web site.) Actually, it’s refreshing to read about a competitive House race. It would be nice if all these folks had to weigh both sides of an issue from time to time.
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Texian Politico Reply:
December 4th, 2009 at 7:49 am
Its kind of scary that a candidate would run for office with a resume as a community organizer, a little known state senator, a failed congressional candidate, and a US Senator for three years.
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S.T. says:
You will not find a finer individual with more integrity than Will Hurd.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Burka, do NOT count out Rodriguez, he’s got more experience than any of his challengers so far.
I do believe Obama is likely a one term President in 2012 and gone since he’s going to be the last Dem to win the WH after his term ends.
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WUSRPH says:
Is Hurd related to the long-time GOPer from Laredo who I believe was appointed as an ambassador by one of the GOP presidents. I think he might have been in the beer business?
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Seriously? says:
Congratulations! You’re his biggest media hit so far! Why don’t you just go ahead and endorse him, Paul? One caveat though: a good third of the Republican primary vote will come out of that wide, rural expanse to the west, where retail politics still matter. A firm handshake, direct eye contact, real time devoted to building trust – that kind of thing. Building a relationship with voters out there while fending off Rich Uncle Pennybags Canseco might be a little tougher than you think. Especially when he’s airdropping full page mailers blasting our “Afro-leninist” President. Perhaps, he can pick up a little Cessna cheap off eBay. My name links to the most affordable one I could find. Hope that helps!
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Pat says:
Whoever wins the GOP primary, they’re in for an uphill slog. I’d be willing to spot Ciro 1% bump for every two years due to the growing hispanic population. The 23d is probably 52%-55% Democratic by now. That’s a lot of hispanics to win over for a coconut like Canseco–and you can bet they’re going to saddle him with that.
The unknown is the involvement of the DCCC and NRCC. The DCCC probably won’t spend any money–too many other tough races. The NRCC might, if Canseco can get close in the polls. Ciro’s approval numbers are a decent early snapshot of that. And I’m willing to bet he’s just killing it with hispanics. Ciro is a strong bet.
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Hispanic Reply:
December 4th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
Will Hurd has my hispanic vote! …and my hispanic family’s vote too!!!!
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Mickey Clouse says:
Ciro Rodriguez has shown Rural Texas that he is a true representive of all people. He has made visits to this West Texas area and has shown a i intrest in emproving the area reguardless of population. He is a friend to our veterans and has shown that in his voteing record. We need to keep Ciro Rodriguez.
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James Aldrete says:
“Undoubtedly helped by Obama’s presence at the top of the ticket.” For the record, Ciro outperformed Obama by almost 5 points. Ciro took 55.3% and Obama took 50.4%.
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Forest and trees says:
Ciro Rodriguez is a lightweight. In perception. In substance. He can hardly string a few sentences together without coherently. The reason Democrats are in danger of losing the seat is because Ciro Rodriguez will be the Democratic nominee. He’s viewed charitably by most Democratic voters: a nice man, but not the brightest or most capable. Certainly not the best to take on the Republicans in 2010! That’s like putting in your third string quarterback with the game tied at the two minute warning.
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Mike Kueber says:
Paul,
You are correct that there are “perhaps others” in the Republican race. Check out http://www.KueberForCongress.com. I am a progressive conservative with integrity, experience, and ability. My campaign has already been announced in the SA Express, but I guess you missed that.
Regards,
Mike Kueber
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John Esquivel says:
I think Zero Rodriquez if facing a tough Primary against an Iraq War Veteran & Attorny Miguel Ortiz. CQ Politics already is saying chances for Democrats to keep US District 23 seat is having Mr. Ortiz running against Canseco for an easy wins. We are supporting to Mr Ortiz.
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Mike Davis says:
Miguel Ortiz is going nowhere. Give up already!!! I would like to know if the Republican candidates even know how to pass a bill through Congress, because non of them have served in public office, unless you count Mr. Hurd as class president at A&M, which was also Rick Perry’s school haha
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Gilbert says:
Hey John E. – Get your facts straight bub! Below is from the CQ WEBSITE! ORTIZ is a breeze for Ciro.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/01/all-texas-us-house-members-run.html
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