What the census numbers tell us
The fastest-growing counties in Texas were suburban counties near the big Metro areas: Collin and Rockwall east of Dallas; Williamson and Hays, which bracket Travis County on the top and bottom; and Montgomery and Fort Bend, which bracket Harris County on the north and southwest. These six counties experienced growth rates of 55.0% t0 81.8%, the highest of the Census Bureau’s brackets for Texas.
Collin, Rockwall, and Montgomery are solid red counties. Fort Bend is in transition to becoming a purple county, possibly the first Democratic suburb. (Obama narrowly missed carrying the county in 2008.) Hays has been a blue county, but the spread of affluent subdivisions suggests a transition to red is occurring. Williamson is solid red in the north but has a lot of blue in the south.
East Texas did not keep up with the growth of the state. All of East Texas east of the Trinity had low population gains at best (0.0% to 24.9%), except for Chambers County, historically a sleepy, isolated rural county wedged between Houston and Beaumont. I drove into Anahuac, the county seat, on the return leg of a trip to New Orleans earlier this year, and it showed few signs of economic activity. Apparently Chambers has been discovered since my side trip, because its growth rate was between 24.9 and 54.0%, the second-highest grouping for the state. Chambers was the only county in East Texas–that is, east of I-45 and north of I-10, to post a significant population gain.
Growth seldom extended more than one county from a metro area. In the Tarrant County area, Denton, Ellis, and Parker counties, all contiguous to the big county, posted big gains; Johnson and Wise did not. Even on the interstates, the rural counties did not grow. On I-45, Montgomery posted big gains. But the next three counties, Walker (Huntsville) and Madison (Madisonville) increased in population by less than 10%. The suburbs are booming, the exurbs less so.
Eighteen House districts grew by more than 30%. The biggest gainer of these belonged to erstwhile Speaker candidate Ken Paxton (79,44%), followed by Callegari (+57.74%), Zerwas (+57.29%), Laubenberg (+51/50%), and Fletcher (+50.56%). Other members with high-growth (+30%) were Eissler, Schwertner, Reynolds, L. Gonzalex, Parker, Crownover, Solomons, Quintanilla, Zedler, Truitt, Geren, Garza, and Larson.
Not surprisingly, Rick Hardcastle’s sprawling rural West Texas district showed a large population loss of 31,695. What was surprising was the population declines in Harris County. Hernandez-Luna is 40,256 people short of ideal population. Other districts in traditionally Hispanic areas suffered similar shortfalls: Alvarado is short by 34,907; Walle by 28,362. What is happening? I think it’s brown flight: families deserting the inner city for the ‘burbs, especially the Cypress-Fairbanks school district. A similar story is taking place in El Paso. Marquez and Gonzalez are short 35,070 and 34,922 respectively. Pickett is short by 20,465. Obviously, major demographic shifts are taking place in Hispanic communities across Texas. In Dallas, Anchia’s district is a whopping 50,291 short of the ideal population; Alonzo’s district is down by 35,737. I think we are seeing in Dallas what happened in Houston, and that is minority move-outs from the central city. Dallas has to lose a seat, and it could be the result of the dispersal of the Hispanic population.
Pri-ista says:
This what so-called Hispanic leadership does realize. If immigrant families or families not to far from the immigrant experience, moving from Oak Cliff to East Plano is no big deal. After all they moved several hundred miles to be here.
Hispanic Democratic leadership thinks they have a lock on it’s base, but the base moves and is moving geographically and economically.
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Sixth Floor View says:
Dallas will lose two House seats, not one.
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Pri-ista says:
So long as they lose them in the Southern sector, I’m fine with that.
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longleaf says:
Elections will mean less and less as there is less to fight over. Being an office holder, aside from any personal benefits that may accrue and vest, will just mean apportioning the misery to the increasingly outraged constituents. We can see this on display in Wisconsin.
I particularly do not understand the fascination with the Hispanics, as they long ago concluded, based (I am guessing) on their experiences in the mother country, that voting is largely a waste of time. I have to admit in 2011 that they are right about that.
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anita Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 10:42 am
Longleaf, some quick research reveals that voter turnout in Mexico is 63%, compared to the United States at 37%.
I believe that, as R’s continue their meat-ax approach to governing, elections mean more and more to people. I believe many people will be offended by the overreach that is going on now, many who aren’t political have been engaged by seeing their schools and other programs that impact their lives targeted.
Look at the poll numbers in today’s Texas Tribune — specific cuts producing huge numbers against — 80 and 90%. If you don’t think this won’t produce a backlash, especially in a general election, you don’t know your history.
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anita Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 11:30 am
Longleaf, as for your Wisconson reference, here’s what Texans think (via the Texas Tribune) of the cuts proposed to date:
Given a list of things that could be cut to balance the budget and asked to check each that they’d consider, the voters were protective of state programs, and overwhelmingly so. They oppose cuts to public education, 82 percent; pre-kindergarten, 62 percent; state grants to college students, 73 percent; state contributions to teacher and state employee retirement programs, 69 percent; the Children’s Health Insurance Program, 87 percent; to state environmental regulation that could be picked up by the federal government, 65 percent; cuts to Medicaid providers like doctors and hospitals, 86 percent; state funding for nursing home care, 90 percent; prisons for adults or for juveniles, both 67 percent; new highway construction, 63 percent; border security, 85 percent; or for closing four community colleges, 77 percent.
Many of the items on that list are among the prime cuts made in proposed budgets from the House, the Senate and the governor.
“Frankly, if you’re assuming the results of the last election mean you should cut and that people meant government should completely go away, you’re overreaching,” says pollster Jim Henson, who teaches government and runs the Texas Politics Project at UT.
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longleaf Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 12:03 pm
I read that Texas Tribune article. Unfortunately for the anti-GOPers, there are only two viable choices in Texas (and the U.S., for that matter). And in Texas, the GOP has successfully branded itself with around 90 percent of the whites and enough of the rest to win the vast majority of elections ALWAYS. As Paul Burka has pointed out, the Dems risk losing even having the infrastructure of a party. They’re hollowed-out and demonized and, especially among the “Bible bangers” where I am, are thought of with an “ewwwww” factor.
Although it is not enforced, Mexico has a compulsory voting law, so that may have something to do with that turnout you cited:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsory_voting#By_countries
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anita Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 12:24 pm
You made my point, taking us back to the census numbers:
“And in Texas, the GOP has successfully branded itself with around 90 percent of the whites and enough of the rest to win the vast majority of elections ALWAYS.”
The GOP has successfully branded itself as the party of Whites. But White population in Texas peaked a couple of decade ago. In 2000, Texas was roughly 32 percent Hispanic and 53 percent non-Hispanic white. As of last year, interim census data shows, Hispanics accounted for 37 percent, with Anglos dipping to 47 percent.
So now we see why the voter impediment bill is an emergency to the Texas GOP.
Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 3:50 pm
Here’s the problem you face, Longleaf:
Whites made up 88 percent of the national turnout when Carter won the WH in 1976; flash foward 16 years and the white participation dropped 5 points – down to 83 percent;
Flash forward another 16 years to 2008 and the white participation declined another 9 points – down to 74 percent.
The decline is accelerating.
Time is not on your side.
Just Another Joe says:
Check your math, Paul. Dallas County currently has 16 seats. But when you divide Dallas County’s new population by the new ideal district size, you get 14.12 seats. This means that they will get 14 seats that each will have a slight remainder.
Even if you tried to draw all of the Dallas County districts to only 95% of the ideal district size (which would invite a legal challenge), you still only have enough population for 14.5 districts.
Funny thing is that all along we thought West Texas was going to be the big loser, when this whole time it was always going to be Big D.
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paulburka Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 10:02 am
I may be mistaken about this, but my understanding is that congressional seats are allowed to deviate from the ideal by only ONE person, but legislative districts may deviate by up to 10%.
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Just Another Joe Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 10:32 am
You’re half right, Paul. In the past House Districts have been allowed a 10 percent deviation, which is to say that a map was fine if your largest district was no more than 105% of the standard and your smallest district was at least 95% of the standard.
Even then, if my memory serves me correctly, there have been recent court cases in other states that have set the new standard deviation at plus or minus 3%, instead of 5%.
All that said, as I mentioned earlier, even if you tried to draw 15 house districts in Dallas County (putting them losing only 1) to 95% of the standard, you still don’t have enough population in that county to get it done.
They lose two, unless we blatently ignore the rules.
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longleaf Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 6:26 am
“Here’s the problem you face, Longleaf:”
Tellnitlikeitis, I don’t vote, so I don’t have a side and thus I don’t have a problem. I decided a few years ago that the political system in this country was so hopelessly corrupt (see Citizens United decision for further proof) that it was a waste of time.
I do find the system entertaining, though, in the same sense people can’t look away from train derailments or car wrecks. It is interesting to live within an empire that is rapidly collapsing. It is akin to being inside the belly of the beast.
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Anonymous says:
Sorry Pri-ista,
Parts of southern Dallas County are actually seeing growth. Giddings HD109 had more growth than any of the GOP held districts in North Dallas. I think Burkett’s HD101 district will be chopped into surrounding districts and possibly Kenneth Sheets HD107 as well. Dallas is at 14.1 so they likely lose two seats not just one.
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KB says:
Most of the growth in Chambers County is occuring in the towns and areas just surrounding Baytown: Mont Belvieu, Cove, that area. The people there either work in the plants or are Houston commuters who just like the exurbs.
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KB Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 5:38 pm
yes, and they vote republican.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Burka, the Houston City Council is going to be debating redistricting too as the city is expected to get 2 new districts to expand the current 14-member format of the council.
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Kirk says:
Expect to see the exurbs’ growth to continue to slow (as compared with suburbs) as gas prices go higher, and as inflation eats into discretionary income.
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Molly Mapmaker says:
Burka, you are correct on the deviation, althought there has been some discussion that the safe approach (legally) is to go with zero deviation for legislative seats – although that ultimately conflicts with the ‘no splitting of county lines in House districts unless absolutely necessary’ requirement in the Texas Constitution.
If the House went to zero deviation, the lawsuits Smith v. Craddick gives grounds for nullifying the state requirement in order to meet federal standards.
So the House will have to decide if they want to continue to use the 5% deviation and be potentially exposed (legally) or go with the federal standards of zero deviaiton used in congressional redistricting,
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ATXDem says:
The overall deviation for state legislature districts is still at 10%. There is a misconception out there that the deviation is now between 3-5% but its simply not accurate. However Paul is correct about the congressional districts they need to be at about 0.0%.
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Hays Resident says:
Paul, your right Hays County is becoming more affluent and in the last election Republicans swept every race (including knocking off Rose). The transition to red has already occurred and the power of incumbency and new demographics are going to make it hard for Dems to make a comeback.
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Molly Mapmaker says:
ATXDem, I think we are saying the same thing, because when I said 5% deviation, I meant that it could be 5% above or 5% below – that’s a total swing of 10%.
Attorneys at the NCSL redistricting conference made it clear however that the 5%/10% deviation is a area of legal vulnerability.
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Hays Resident says:
Anita,
The Tribune poll says “By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Texas voters believe that lawmakers should solve the state’s massive shortfall by cutting the budget.” But, they don’t like the actual cuts that have to be made.
I think this is similar to ObamaCare (sorry Rep. Wasserman Schultz if that name offends you) where the people generally liked many of the individual components but didn’t like the overall bill. The Dems ran on the micro issues and the Reps on the marco issue. We saw how that turned out.
I’m not saying there will not be backlash but I don’t think you can bank on it.
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anita says:
“The Dems ran on the micro issues and the Reps on the marco issue.”
The D’s ran on no discernable issues, while the R’s hammered away at Obama. Same thing happened in 82 (D’s hammered away at Reagan) and 94 (R’s hammered Clinton). Look at what happened the following cycle.
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paul burka Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 12:52 pm
The Democrats ran … for cover.
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asmith says:
What’s going to happen to the State Senate districts in Dallas? Will Harris, Shapiro, and Deuell be pushed out of the county so West and Carona can bring up their districts? I was shocked to see that Carona is down 170140.
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Hays Resident says:
In 96, Dems picked up a net of 8 seats in the House and lost 2 seats in the Senate and that was with a President with an approval rating above 50%. Hardly a backlash.
In 84, the Reps lost 2 seats. Again, hardly a backlash.
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Molly Mapmaker says:
Uhhhh, Anita 1984 was a banner GOP year. And 1996 was actually a decent year for the GOP. The GOP held Congress and Dole and Perot received more votes than Clinton. With a better GOP presidential candidate, Clinton might have lost. History does not prove whatever point you were attempting to make.
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anita Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 12:17 pm
In both years, the party that was spanked in the previous cycle stormed back to take the White House, again.
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Hays Resident says:
And that is proof that I don’t know my history and there will be a backlash?
umm, ok
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Molly Mapmaker says:
Sorry, the GOP was not spanked. In 1982, the GOP lost 26 seats in the U.S. House but half of this loss was due to redistricting, which was controlled predomninately by Democrats. The GOP held the Senate that year.
In 1998, the GOP had a great year then won the White House in 2000. In 1974 the Democrats won a solid victory then won the White House two years later. Ditto for the GOP in 1987 and 1980.
Democrats won back Congress in 2006 then won the White Hous ein 2008.
Your examples are all wet.
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Ted Baxter Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 1:04 pm
The GOP did not have a great year in ’98. That’s why Gingrich resigned.
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anita says:
Hell, I don’t know if there will be a backlash — but I think the possibility exists.
The R’s seem intent on governing like a group of drunken frat boys while the house mother is on vacation — a herd mentality with little thought to consequence or perception. We’ll see how it plays out.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 1:15 pm
so Chris Christie stands up and chides both parties to deal with real issues, and the same week teacher union Democrats don’t show up for work because they care more about benefits than kids. Those were the two biggest domestic stories of the week. Now, which ones were the adults?
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Molly Mapmaker says:
Sorry no herd mentality – just an acute ear towards Mr. & Mrs. John Q. Taxpayer saying ‘enough’ ‘no mas’ and ‘Put Freddy Freeloader to work.’
Taxpayers are talking, the Republicans are listening and acting. What a refreshing change from those nighmare Bill Hobby days.
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anita says:
Can you name a single emergency item that demonstrates an “acute ear . . . to the taxpayer”?
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not a cartographer says:
yes, congressional districts have to conform to one person, one vote down to the person.
RE: the 10% deviation. as noted, it’s more of a median with +/- 5%. However, due consideration must be given WRT to how those deviations are spread out across the state as a whole. i.e., you can’t have all of your white west texas districts coming in @ 5% under while all of your minority opportunity districts come in at 5% over.
at least that’s how I understand it. there are multiple considerations involved — it’s not simply formulaic.
there are going to be a few tricky situations to deal with WRT to minority voting strength:
1. Senate districts: Rodriguez, Uresti, Z, VDP & Lucio. serious balancing issues.
2. Harris County state reps. same.
could get very interesting.
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Tellnitlikeitis says:
Fort Bend ISD represents the perfect melting pot.
Last school year, the Fort Bend ISD school enrollment looked like this:
African American……….31%
Hispanic………………24%
Asian/Pac.Islander……..22%
White………………….22%
Here’s what Fort Bend ISD looked like 10 years ago:
White………………….40%
African American………..28%
Hispanic……………….17%
Asian/Pac.Islander……….15%
Texas is changing. Most people don’t realize it, though.
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Molly Mapmaker says:
Sure Anita, Mr. & Mrs. Taxpayer are sick to death of liberals killing kids through abortion and then using tax dollars to do it. That is an emergency that goes back to 1973.
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Ted Baxter Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 4:13 pm
Yes, they would rather have their tax money go towards the killing of Iraqis.
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Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 4:29 pm
Molly…
I oppose abortion.
Sen. Patrick says we have 80,000 abortions per year.
What were to happen if we reduced that number to zero?
Right now we have 85,000 additional public school children pouring into our public schools every year (same size of an Austin or Fr. Worth school system).
It costs about $1 billion more per year for those 85,000 kids.
Would GOPers pay to educate all those children who are aborted? Would they provide CHIP insurance? Medicaid?
I hate abortion…but opposing abortion can’t end there. If you abandon the kids who are born, how just and moral are you?
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anon-p Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 9:21 am
Tell> I hate abortion…but opposing abortion can’t end there. If you abandon the kids who are born, how just and moral are you?
I’m sorry, but I can’t abide this terrible logic anymore on these boards.
You cannot say on the one hand that you oppose abortion and then on the other allow it because you believe the Republicans want to deny funding for the education and health insurance of the children who would have lived had abortion been 100% prevented.
Assuming the Republicans actually want 0% funding for those children’s needs (a demagogic, calumnious claim), are you really saying that they are better off dead?
I mean, really?
Is that all you pro-abortion folk have in the tank? That 80,000 per year are better off dead than living in this cruel, fictional Republican world you’ve conjured?
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Hays Resident says:
Anita,
How about legislation to provide for a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution?
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anita Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 5:48 pm
You’re funny. You drank the punch.
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Sybil Soothsayer says:
Tellnitlikeitis, those white kids in Fort Bend County are still there, only they now go to PRIVATE school. That’s why they don’t show up in the stats.
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Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 4:20 pm
Wrong, Sybil.
The most recent stats (two years old) show 295,000 Texas children attending private schools (very small number compared to 4.8 million in public schools).
There are no precise demographic numbers on those 295,000 kids. The Texas Catholic Conference or Diocese does have good demographics on their 80,000 kids (among those 295,000).
Of the 80,000 children attending Catholic schools, 43 percent were white/Anglo; while 41 percent were Hispanic.
So…..you can’t say that all the white kids are vanishing from public schools into private schools. The available data does not support the statement.
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JohnBernardBooks says:
Fort Bend Baptist is a perfect example its growth is phenomenal. Why? kids leaving FBISD.
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Tellnitlikeitis says:
Kids are not leaving FBISD.
FBISD enrollment jumped from 52,704 kids a decade ago to nearly 70,000.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 8:25 pm
FBISD enrollment has been flat recently. Both Marshall and Willowridge HSs attendance is declining. Recent board discussions about closing Willowridge, merging with Marshall.
I’m not sure what that has to do with the census though.
Ft Bend will pick up one Tex rep seat to go with its other 3. and Ft Bend won’t be blue but it will be where thugs drop in from Houston to rob.
Houston with its incompetent mayor remains a sanctuary city for thugs and criminals from NOs and Mexico.
There’s a good article Paul, have democrats done more harm to Dallas or Houston?
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Anonymous Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Last time I checked John, the mayor of Dallas is a Republican.
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JohnBernardBooks Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 6:16 am
yes, thankfully but Dallas turned blue. Watch any video by the Dallas councilman Wiley saying calling a “blackhole” in space is racist. Or his recent racist taunt for whites to “go to hell”.
I love watching democrats self destruct with hate.
Sybil Soothsayer says:
Since the U.S. Census Bureau says there are only a total of 4.8 million school age children in Texas, your stats seem to be off. 300,000 in private and parocial school that you admit too and there are well over 100,000 children being home schooled. So sale.
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Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 8:56 pm
Sybil….I can explain this to you. However, I can’t make you understand.
First of all, the private/parochial stats are what they are. It’s not a matter of admitting.
We don’t know the exact number of home schooled children. There are only some wild estimates.
Now, if you are suggesting that the U.S. Census bureau doesn’t count everyone that is truly out there – then, yes, I agree.
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Indi says:
The 2010 census shows the white non-Hispanic population at 45%. How is it that the GOP controls two-thirds of the Texas House? If the Dems could get their act together and motivate their base voters to show up at the polls, we might get back to a true two party system in Texas.
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Tellnitlikeitis Reply:
February 21st, 2011 at 8:59 pm
Dems are unlikely to get their act together. Not focused. Not disciplined….and unable to help people connect the dots.
So they have no message….and no leader. Bad combination.
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Anonymous says:
Tell, ignore JBB. He is often wrong, but never in doubt.
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JohnBernardBooks says:
I didn’t vote for Obama, and have no doubts that wasn’t wrong.
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Anonymous says:
No mention of College Station? It grew 38%.
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Anonymous says:
Brazos County grew by more than 25%.
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Paul Burka Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 1:24 am
There are 254 counties. I’m not going to mention all of them. Brazos was one of three rural counties–and my definition of “rural” is “surrounded by low-growth counties”–that grew between 25.0% and 54.9%. Chambers County and Garza County (South Plains) were the other two. This was an extremely rare phenomenon, no doubt due to Texas A&M role as the economic anchor of the community.
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JohnBernardBooks says:
The growth in Texas isn’t hard to figure out. Its just hard to get democrats to admit it.
One Texas created more jobs in 2008 an 09 than all other states combined. So people are fleeing the blue states with high debt, taxes and unions.
two we’re giving away tax dollars to illegals as an incenative to come here. We’re recruiting.
I cannot believe on a State of Texas site we can read “U.S. citizenship is not a requirement for eligibility.” Thats insane!
http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/wichd/gi/eligible.shtm
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Anonymous says:
John Wiley Price isn’t a councilman he is a county commissioner. The growth is in the suburbs, but unlike the last 30 years in texas it isn’t middle managers and executives from the northeast, midwest, and California driving it, it is now middle class hispanics, blacks, and asians moving to the burbs wanting more opportunities for their families.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Anon, which of the new 4 US House districts are going to be Republican or Democrat coming up ?
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